ACV Auctions Inc. Price & Performance (ACVA)

These forward looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties and involve factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such statements. A discussion of the risks and uncertainties related to our business, can be found in our SEC filings and in today's press release both of which can be found on our Investor Relations website.

During this call, we will discuss both GAAP and non GAAP [indiscernible] A reconciliation of GAAP to non GAAP financial measures is provided in today's earnings materials which can also be found on our Investor Relations website.

And with that, let me turn the call over to George.

Thanks, Tim. Good afternoon, everyone. And thank you for joining us.

We are very pleased with our fourth quarter performance. Which capped off another strong year of execution by the ACV team. Q4 revenue and adjusted EBITDA exceeded the high end of guidance. Resulting in 32% full year revenue growth and we delivered our first full year of adjusted EBITDA profitability. Our 2024 results were driven by three key factors. First, strong execution in our dealer wholesale business. We continue to gain market share and expand our dealer partner network. With over half of dealers in The U. S. Transacting on our marketplace. Second, we had record performance in ACV transport and ACV Capital. Along with market traction of our growing suite of dealer solutions. And third, we executed on an exciting product roadmap to grow our competitive moat and expand our TAM. While delivering significant margin expansion. As we turn to 2025, ACV is focused on delivering strong top line growth despite a muted outlook for the dealer wholesale market. Are also focused on driving meaningful adjusted EBIT expansion. While continuing to invest in exciting long term growth objectives. We're confident that executing on this profitable growth strategy will create significant long term shareholder value. With that, let's turn to a recap of our results on Slide four.

Q4 revenue of 100 and and resulting in full year revenue growth of 32%. CMV increased year over year in Q4.

And for the full year with nearly $10,000,000,000 of GMG transacted in 2024. We sold 183,000 vehicles in Q4, and 743,000 in 2024. Growth of 24%.

Unit growth was driven by continued market share gains and solid execution across our remarketing centers. Next, on Slide five, today's discussion will focus on the three pillars our strategy to maximize long term shareholder value.

Growth innovation, I'll begin with growth. Turning to Slide seven.

I'll start with observations about the automotive market as context for dealer wholesale volumes.

On the retail front, new vehicle sales increased 2% year over year in 2024. Benefiting from solid 7% growth in Q4. With new vehicle inventories back to historical levels, along with more attractive OEM incentives, Retail sales should continue to recover to normalized levels. However, the used vehicle market continues to tread water. According to NADA ACV, sales declined modestly year over year in Q4. And for the full year Consumer affordability has remained the primary headwind to our retail volume recovery. The used vehicle inventory is about 25% below normal and off lease returns still bottoming. We have yet to see a sustained improvement in the trade to wholesale mix. This resulted in flat dealer wholesale volumes in 2024. [indiscernible] In terms of our outlook for 2025, we're encouraged by pockets of improvement in the broader automotive market. But we believe it's prudent to assume dealer wholesale volumes will be approximately flat year over year. Moving to Slide eight, let's cover highlights beginning with ACV Transportation, The transportation team delivered another strong quarter.

Resulting in over 30% revenue growth and 410,000 deliveries in 2024.

By leveraging AI, the team has optimized pricing across nearly the entire ACV transportation network. Resulting in both strong growth and operating efficiency. Revenue margin expanded 300 basis points in 2024. Exceeding our midterm target margin target of high teens.

Lastly, our off platform transportation service continued to gain traction with our dealer partners in Q4. We're excited to deliver these new value added services that accelerate network densities and create additional long term growth vectors. Turning to Slide nine, The ACV Capital team delivered strong results with accelerated year over year revenue growth in Q4. And full year revenue growth of 26%. As we discussed in recent quarters, our ACV capital team has been balancing growth and risk in an environment that has been challenging for independent dealers, Going forward, we are confident that we can accelerate ACV capital growth while continuing to manage risk. In addition to our core floor plan offerings, we are excited of new value added offerings we began piloting in twenty twenty four. Recall that these include dealer financing for and dealer trade ins that are sold retail or wholesale on ACV's market [indiscernible] This bundled ClearCar ACV capital offering supports dealer sourcing strategies, and creates another long term growth lever for our capital business. Next, I'll address the second element of our strategy to drive long term shareholder value. Innovation, Turning to Slide 11, I'll frame our tech investment around a core differentiator that underpins our products, [indiscernible] and Operations.

ACV AI. It's not lost on us that investors are hearing a lot about AI these days. Technologies like machine learning and large language models are advancing at a rapid pace and ECV is uniquely positioned to transform how decisions are made [indiscernible] Within our digital marketplace, we leverage AI together with our proprietary data to deliver condition enhanced pricing intelligence. And to generate tailored buying experiences based on historical buying patterns and available inventory. We just released new features ACV Max powered by ACV AI that predicts prices with incredible accuracy. We can now predict what a retail vehicle will sell for within a few hundred dollars and within $100 of its wholesale value. This pricing capability informed by specific vehicle and local market dynamics is used to guide sellers on vehicle listing price.

We are seeing sellers and buyers adopt our prices increasingly. Driving higher conversion on our marketplace.

ACV AI is foundational within our inspection platform delivering the most transparent and accurate condition reports the industry.

Before our VCIs or dealers touch a vehicle, we flag known condition risks and guide them through the inspection process.

These disclosures are added to condition reports based on insights from our vehicle This model contains structured data from millions of inspections augmented the third party data and we believe represents one of the most comprehensive vehicle condition databases in the industry. We're incorporating advanced technology into our emerging commercial platforms as we expand into this adjacent market.

ACV AI powers our consumer facing solutions like and our trade in solution, for auto e commerce partners. Dealer partners, are piloting our new AI enhanced applications to reform their own inspections, for a number of use cases, and we've received incredible feedback which has informed our product roadmap.

To wrap up, Key driver of our marketplace success. We're only getting started and we look forward to sharing some more exciting new AI enabled products and services at our upcoming Analyst Day in March. With that, let me hand over to Bill to take you through our financial results and how we're driving growth Thanks, George, and thank you for joining us today. We are very pleased with our Q4 financial performance. Along with strong revenue growth, we delivered meaningful margin expansion and adjusted EBITDA growth. Demonstrating the strength of our business model. On Slide 13, let's begin with a recap of fourth quarter results. Revenue of $116,000,000 was above the high end of our guidance range. Representing 35% year over year growth. Q4 revenue from our 2024 acquisitions So the overperformance was again driven by strong organic growth of approximately 20% year over year. Adjusted EBITDA of $6,000,000 exceeded the high end of guidance, with adjusted EBITDA margin improving 900 basis points year over year. The upside was driven by strong high margin auction and assurance revenues and by operating leverage. Finally, non GAAP net income was also above the high end of guidance with margin increasing approximately 400 basis points year over year.

Next on Slide 14, let's review Auction and Assurance revenue was 58% of total revenue and grew 40% year over year. This performance reflects 27% year over year unit growth and auction and insurance ARPU of $500 which grew 10% year over year. Marketplace services revenue was 37% of total revenue and grew 31% year over year reflecting strong revenue for ACV Transport and record revenue for CCV Capital. Our SaaS and data services products comprised 5% of total revenue with growth accelerating to 10% year over year. Next, I'll review Q4 costs on Slide 15. Non GAAP cost of revenue as a percentage of revenue decreased approximately 400 basis points year over year. The improvement was driven by auction and insurance results and by Non GAAP operating expense excluding cost of revenue as a percentage of revenue decreased 400 basis points year over year These results reflect our focus on expense discipline as we optimize and scale our business. Moving to Slide 16, I'll frame our investment strategy as we drive profitable growth. Our focus on spending discipline and operating efficiency resulted in a decrease in OpEx growth in 2023 yielding a significant improvement in adjusted EBITDA. In 2024, as expected, OpEx growth increased to support our marketing center strategy and commercial platform investments.

Even with these growth investments, adjusted EBITDA margin increased by approximately 800 basis points year over year Next, I will highlight our strong capital structure on Slide 17.

We ended Q4 with $270,000,000 in cash, and cash equivalents and marketable securities.

And $123,000,000 of debt.

Note that our Q4 cash balance includes $167,000,000 of float in our auction business. In the figure on the right, we highlight our strong full year operating cash of $65,000,000 The significant improvement reflects our transition to positive adjusted EBITDA and strong margin expansion. Now turning to 2025 guidance on Slide 18.

For the first quarter, we are expecting revenue in the range of $180 dollars growth of 24% to 27% year over year. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in the range of $9,000,000 to $11,000,000 reflecting growth of approximately 135% year over year at the midpoint of guidance. For the full year, we are expecting revenue in the range of $75,000,000 to $785,000,000 growth of 20% to 23% year over year. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in the range of $65,000,000 to $75,000,000 reflecting growth of approximately 150% year over year at the midpoint of guidance. As it relates to guidance, we are assuming that dealer wholesale volumes will be approximately flat year over year for 2025. We expect conversion rates and wholesale price depreciation to follow normal seasonal patterns. We also continue to expect revenue excluding cost of revenue and depreciation and amortization, by approximately 500 basis points. And finally, moving to Slide 19, we are updating key assumptions in our midterm target model. The model continues to assume 1,500,000 total units and we now expect approximately 15% of the mix to come from commercial wholesale. Our targets also continue to be underpinned by and expanding margins through revenue mix and scale which we've clearly demonstrated in our performance.

We're also factoring in in higher auction and assurance ARPU based on the pricing power we've demonstrated in recent years by delivering value to our dealer partners, As such, our new targets are revenue of $1,400,000,000 and adjusted EBITDA of $350,000,000 We look forward to taking you through a deep dive on our updated targets at our March And with that, let me turn it back to George.

Thanks, Bill. Before we take your questions, I will summarize. We are very pleased with our strong execution in 2024. We are especially proud of our ACV teammates that delivered these results We continue to gain market share by attracting new dealer and commercial partners to our marketplace.

While expanding our addressable market.

Which positions ACV for attractive growth as market conditions improve. We are delivering on an exciting product roadmap powered by ACV ACV to further differentiate ACV and drive operating efficiencies, We are focused on achieving substantial adjusted EBITDA growth in 2025.

And delivering on our updated midterm targets that we believe drive [indiscernible] shareholder value. We are committed to achieving these results while building a world class team to deliver on our goals. With that, I'll turn the call over to the operator to begin the Q and A. Thank you. We will now be conducting a question and answer session. Our first question comes from the line of Eric Sheridan with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question. Thanks so much for taking the questions and great to talk to you. In terms of the market share gains that are embedded in Europe forward forecast, maybe talk a little bit, George, about some of the underlying assumptions you're making with respect to sort of same store dynamics, new [indiscernible] over the last couple of years is sort of driving those market share gains, just so we can understand a little bit better some of the underlying assumptions? And with the one year out, EBITDA forecast, just want to refresh on how you're thinking about either hitting that kind of forecast versus outperforming it and the balance between [indiscernible] even if you do produce some extra incremental profit as we go through year, just to understand the Thank you.

Yes, certainly, Eric. So First on what were our thoughts on the market this year? The direct question was we're assuming our share gains continue really at the same pace. Our thought places our thought for the market this year is assume a flattish wholesale market. When you look at all the considerations going on, Between interest rates other market conditions, some of the other concerns out there in automotive, Our thought is assume a flattish overall wholesale market and we continue to take share at the same consistent rate. So really no change in how we've been taking share. Thus far. Just keep going. And to your point, some of our new value added services, we could grow faster and that is a possibility. The thought right now is just the same message we've been giving to all is same consistent execution same market share gains, but assume an overall market overall market conditions that dealer wholesale would be flat year over year.

Is that helpful, Eric, on your first question?

That is helpful. Thanks.

Yes. And the second question, where I'll start and Bill can lean in. We're obviously we continue to invest.

We've We've got an exciting lineup of product and technology but we're seeing a world where AI is changing everything. [indiscernible] Very, very quickly. We are investing as well. We believe we've got a unique advantage to continue to demonstrate very strong Sort of overall health benefits, I believe our 130 plus percent year over year, right? When you look at our year over year EBITDA improvements.

It's actually 150%. 150%, thank you. 150% year over year improvement. So while doing that, an incredible improvement on overall Eric, to your point, you'll see of these things I highlighted today will be showing quite a bit of this on Analyst Day as well. We've got a really incredible product roadmap. So we look at the strength in our current products, our product roadmap show that we continue to improve our overall pass of EBIT expansion, but also invest in the core. Bill, I don't know if you want to add any more to that.

Yes. I would say, Eric, I mean, it's always a question of how you balance invest horses driving earnings growth. So when you take a step back, we're driving 150% improvement in adjusted EBITDA on 22%.

Revenue growth. [indiscernible] In the past in terms of over performance, we've tended to [indiscernible] some portion of that through in terms of overperforming, which is what happened last year. We're always kind of thinking at the same time, how do we continue to drive future growth. So that's that's always the balance and those are the calls that we make so far We've been able to over perform and still invest at a rate we think is important to drive future growth. So we feel pretty good about the balance, at least for the initial guidance for the year and like every year, we'll see how things kind of play out over time as especially with respect to market conditions. Really appreciate it. Thank you. Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Chris Pierce with Needham and Company. Please proceed with your question. Hey, everybody. I just wanted to hit on flat market volumes.

There's articles out there from the National Auto mean to get the acronym wrong, but the Auto Auction Association. Showing low double digit growth in dealer volumes in January and similar in Commercial. So is it that you think maybe tax refund season was pulled forward somehow? I just want to get a sense of the market's been strong, but you guys are staying flat in '25. I just want to kind of understand where you're coming from.

Yes, I think listen, great question. I think it was it's really why we also have a range Let's start with I think the whole process here to have a range is [indiscernible] incorporate into that thought process, what happens if it's flattish like we're saying, what happens if it's a little bit better or a little worse, hence why we have a range.

ACV you look at the specifics there's mixed data on what economists are saying is going to happen with retail.

This year. There's really a lot of mixed data out there. Obviously, we don't want to be wrong.

So to your point, January was very strong for ACV. We had a really strong month And if the whole year ends up being like that, that would be fantastic, Chris. But we're not going to bank February, as you're probably also reading, it's not like anything changed at ACV. Right? But February, I think we're going to see retail sales will be could end up being lower year over year. Now whether or not retail sales end up being lower year over year, I'm not about wholesale up even looking at retail. [indiscernible] It would mean that weather was weather whether it was interest rates, whether it was other concerns, we could see that February's challenges are either temporary or not. And so when you take all this in, right, there's a lot of crosswinds out there. There's the macro stuff, there's all this concern about tariffs and everything else. We think it's prudent for us to assume right down the middle. So, flattish, There's no reason for any of us to take all these different messages going on out there and predict it will be better. I don't think that's prudent for us and for our shareholders.

So but to your point, there could be a situation this year with the other wholesales up in January showed us all. But keep in mind, January wholesale after retail. And so we'll see how much January retail was actually up or not. Year over year as the data starts to come out.

And so let's start to follow that trend of how much really was January up?

How much is February up or down?

So I think we're doing the right thing for us and our shareholders basically predict down the middle, hopefully it's better than that. Hence why we give you all a range.

Okay. And then I appreciate that. And then just lastly for me, can you talk about some of the changes boots on the ground that you're seeing some of the power hole fillers out there?

Like CarMax and Carvana updating their buyer facing tech. Is that something that would affect your volumes in any way? Or what do you see as there sees changes in the marketplace? As things become more tech forward?

Yes. I mean, at the end of the day, I think we've been very consistent on competition right? I guess the questions we've gotten from our IPO to now, we've always had a lot of competition out there. There's hundreds of regional auctions We've always had competition. We respect our competition. But I think there was other like marketplace things that have come up over the last couple of years that draw draw some question out there. That some of the things you all saw from other like marketplace companies you're getting a very consistent message. We've got an incredible value proposition for dealers. We have marketplace offerings We've got transportation. We've got capital. We've got pricing tools. We've got a broader value added offering than we believe anyone else in the world. And And we feel really good about that. So there will always be competition, we respect that competition.

But we really love the position we're in.

Okay, got it. Thank you. Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Bob Labick with CJS Securities. Please proceed with your question.

Yes.

Good afternoon.

It's Pete Lucas for Bob. Just on your recon network, as you build out to 40 plus locations, what are the key advantages that this gives you other than more storage space for repos? And what are you doing differently than the incumbent players with your space and commercial offerings?

Yes. Two great questions. So one, to your point, your first part, just to sort of help everyone else understand, you need that land to your point for repo and some of the other categories. Starting to have some of the land allow us to broaden our our TAM we're really excited about. And so having the right locations is important. But then to your point, the unique offering ACV brings is twofold. One is the way our data service offerings works, we're going to be able to auction vehicles every day not just once a week, And we're going to help commercial partners make the right decisions based on the condition of that vehicle. That condition data will also go all the way upstream. We have one remarketer today in the rental car category who's starting to use our data help them understand the value of their wholesale cards. And that goes upstream before they even start to make decisions on who to remarket with. Once you get to the actual physical location, we all we have some we believe some healthy disruption going on there. I'm just going to tease it with that today. You'll of you that go to Analyst Day will get to see what that is.

But we've built some really incredible technology once the vehicle gets there that makes us more efficient, allows us to get the right condition of the car, expedite and then last but not least, the size and scope of our marketplace obviously one of the fastest growing marketplace companies, means that you're going to have broader reach than the traditional local auction. So we've got buyers all over the country love the ACV condition report. They would love to buy every car used in the ACV condition report. And we're going to be able to leverage The dealer wholesale side and dealer scale to now take that buyer base bring them commercial vehicles. Very helpful. Thanks. And then I guess just staying on that topic, just how many acquisitions are you looking at this year in terms of and how many would be greenfields? And is what are you seeing in the market overall? Is it getting easier or harder to acquire locations? [indiscernible] this is going to be a really exciting year for ACV because we will end the year with our first greenfield location. Our software and technology services will be ready for the back half of the year.

And we're we'll be ready to Roy Crown ACV very exciting for ACV.

Could still be M and A this year or next year, the we're not banking on it.

Of course, we're talking to folks whether something happens or not. But We're going to assume moving forward that if we want to be in a market and there isn't someone to acquire, just going to go ahead and open up a greenfield. When we look at the cost for rent, the rent costs are really manageable for what we need So all we need to do is basically rent the location, put up the right reconditioning facilities, bring the tech that we have and we're up and running, and we're really excited to have at least one up and running by the end of this year.

Hey, Bob and I would add, obviously, for ACV successful with Greenfield rollout.

That could and should dramatically reduce our capital requirements. Right, from an M and A perspective. So we're kind of anxious move forward and as George said, by the end of the year, have our first screen filled up and running. And then we'll also better be able to gauge what our capital requirements really will be since a lot of investors have asked us that question. It really depends upon the mix between M and A and Greenfield. So having our first Greenfield up and running will give us a little more clarity in that regard. Very helpful. Thanks. I'll jump back in the queue. Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Nick Jones with JMP Securities.

Please proceed with your question.

Thanks.

Taking the questions. Can you just remind us how you are thinking about pricing in the business, is that still a lever you could pull on? How are you thinking about it kind of strategically and how our kind of competitors behaving today? Yes. Thanks, Dick. Yes, great question.

We're still our price, our fees are still a little bit lower than the competitors. So we do have a little room for this year. That's how we're thinking about it at this point. But obviously for competitive reasons, I don't want to too much more about it on a call like this, but we do have a little room for the air.

Air. I would just add Nick. I mean if you look at the numbers for last year, our marketplace ARPU was up 9%. Right, as a result of some of the price increases that we were able to pass through So we're certainly assuming a lower percentage of increase in our model for this year.

Got it.

And then if I could, I think you said on the call about half of dealers are transacting on the platform. I think you normally update those numbers on the K. I guess we could wait for that. Get those unless you can disclose them now. But can you speak to the stickiness of the businesses using the marketplace? Mean, how should we think about churn and just kind of the overall behavior of the users? It sounds like the churn is extremely low. It's negligible and it's really about kind of shifting wallet share. Can you just help us understand as you plan to gain share How are folks responding to the platform as the years go by? Yes, Nick, I mean the way to think about our retention is in the markets we've been at the longest in the Northeast and you'll start to see some of this [indiscernible] we've built very substantial market share. The market share we have in our early markets is very significant. And so when you it gives us great confidence that even in markets where we've been at for eight, nine years, we've continued to grow share.

Only can keep growing share if you're retaining your early customer. So I'll point to that and I'll point to not only what you see in the eight ks, but also on Analyst Day, I believe we're going to show a couple of slides that shows how we've grown in some of these markets and that will kind of bring out what you're looking for. Which is we're not only bringing on new participants, we've grown our share and our wallet share with early participants. Great. Thanks, George. Thanks, Bill. [indiscernible] Thank you.

Next question comes from the line of John Colantoni with Jefferies.

Please proceed with your question. Great. Thanks for taking my questions. I'm just doing some back of the envelope math suggests full year outlook embeds something like mid teens organic unit growth Given you're expecting the wholesale market to be about flat next year, I'm wondering if that mid teens growth is the right way to think about ACV's normalized level of growth. And as as part of that, I'm wondering if you could talk to the key growth vectors that could unlock incremental growth over time.

Thanks.

I have a follow-up.

John, I'll start and then I'll let Georgeann in.

So you're correct. We are assuming mid teens unit growth, which is basically essentially market share gains. That's very consistent with what we've seen last year and frankly on average the last few years. So that is an embedded assumption. So that's correct. Pretty consistent with what we've been saying, I think, for quite some time now. I don't know, George, if you want to add to that.

Yes. I think, if you look at if you look at a way to think about how the year started, January versus February, it's sort of funny how you can start the year in a [indiscernible] Two different climates. January is very strong for us. And it was strong because we kept taking share. But also dealer wholesale was up a little bit and that was nice. [indiscernible] if we do see A good tailwind and we see less concern on affordability and see consumers going back and buying cars like we saw in parts of the fourth quarter. [indiscernible] that could be great for us.

Right? Because we're just going to assume our execution, assume the market is flat. But yes, we can see some of these market conditions change. Which that would be helpful. Number two, that would be out of our control. Within our control, is some of our new value added services on pricing and helping dealers with trades and appraisals. For example, you'll see some of this on Analyst Day, we've got new tools that help dealers buy cars in their service drive. We're starting to win customers for wholesale because of these new products.

So this bundle you've all been hearing us talk about for a long time is getting very exciting. Our other part of our bundle with ACV Max we can now predict the price of a car within a few hundred dollars of what it's going to sell for in retail and within $100 of what it's going to sell for in wholesale, Like that guidance, when we say that to a dealer, first they think we're crazy. Because if you took all their general managers and used car managers, put them in a room, and said you could predict the price within a few hundred dollars like that's impossible. And with these legacy tools, our competitors app, you can't do any of this.

So we feel great Having said that, these tools are new. Our bundles are still an early early adoption. As bullish I am about where we're going and how I think AI will change automotive forever, and it could be quickly. There's still humans out there who have to make decisions and who have to change.

So we'll see how fast right, we'll see dealers go from the old tools and the old ways to these modern ways. But to give you two vast ways we could do better, be the market getting better or we get even a higher faster take rate for our broader value added services. Either one of those could help us have an even more exciting year.

Great.

And I was curious to just get your perspective on what you're seeing on the competitive front And as part of that, maybe just give us your perspective on Carvana's plans to expand Adesa Clear? [indiscernible] I mean, listen, I think should all do your own homework. I don't think most dealers are going to embrace some of these products like others are saying. You've heard a lot of things kind of you talked about in this industry. So I'm not going to speak to them. But We feel great about what we're doing. We're a neutral party, we're independent, We get a tremendous amount of data from our dealer partners.

We're launching a broader value added service offering. And we're actually starting to get wholesale commitments from dealers because of our broad suite of offerings. So whether it's the company you mentioned or other competitors, you're always going to ask competitors. So the question is, who should the dealers partner with? Right? That's what the investors should be asking. That's what dealers should be asking is, who should dealers partner with?

And we feel like we're in a great spot to be the right partner for dealers and commercial partners. With the suite of offerings we're bringing to the market. Thanks so much.

Thank you.

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Rajat Gupta with JPMorgan.

Please proceed with your question.

Great. Thanks for taking the question. Just wondering like if there is an update could provide us on ACV Max and the ClearCar combo? And just in terms of adoption and just go forward plans to scale, Clearly, when you were at the NADH show, it looked like ACV and Max in particular was definitely like a significant improvement in mind share. So I was curious if you're trying to see any inflection there in adoption, just And then how integral are these products to your midterm target? I have a quick follow-up.

Yes. Thanks, Scott. I mean, great question. So you've obviously been doing some of your homework. [indiscernible] We are would say we're finally like arriving as a brand for dealers and a consideration on these data services, Obviously, there was incumbents, right? So we we are in a way the new player. Data services, ACV Max and ClearCar. The reception we're getting is incredible.

We recently one dealer group, a regional dealer group with over 30 rooftop which we're really excited about. [indiscernible] when you look at those 30 rooftops, it doesn't materially change our revenue for the year. When you look at what we get Great.

Per month in subscription. But what it does do is we're now helping them price their wholesale and their retail cards.

We're advancing them. They're now in the sort of AI era, power by ACV AI.

In a way to think about this, [indiscernible] dealership to us is worth a lot more than $1,000 to $2,000 a month in subscription.

So we're when you look at if we were able to get 20 wholesale cars a month, or more, It's a really important partnership. And they know that. And they know we're really leaning in and we're giving them an incredible product offering.

For very low subscription. So a way to think about our data services is they're quite inexpensive. Right? We're not charging a lot. We're not banking. On a huge SaaS business here right now.

At least in the midterm plans, But what it's enabling is an incredible partnership where they also make a commitment on Wholesale. And when you have that, that's treated like a partnership. When you're treated like a partner, you get invited to their annual meetings, their quarterly meetings, I've recently been invited to to where the owner has brought me in to speak to all the GMs, all the used managers like we're becoming a real intimate partner other vendors can't say that. Some of the other auction companies, marketplace companies that we discussed earlier, they really can't say that. So long winded way to say, we like our We don't have a huge expectation in revenue on the SaaS line, as Bill and I have discussed, we look at this as a way to build partnerships. But we feel great on where we're at.

Got it. That's helpful. And then just like a couple of levers in the form of off financing and transportation services. Any appetite to incrementally lean into these verticals in '25 ACV is it going to be more gradual? In terms of contribution there?

It's actually another great question. We listen, we probably have it in us to grow ACV transportation faster. The cost of one person selling AC transfer to stand alone. So just full disclosure, we have one person selling ACV transport off network right now. That's not a huge go to market spend. So So we first and foremost wanted to get the product ready and you know our style. We tend to stay in like these beta periods for a while where just want it to be right. So we don't have on your first one with transport, we don't really have an off Outside of our closed market, So we've grown that primarily within the ACV Auctions in word-of-mouth. Word-of-mouth has been great. Not sure if this year or next year we'll start to lean a little bit more. Maybe we'll a couple more sales folks to sell off network. But that's a great offering that we've got in us to do it. And because our margin profiles healthy there, and it's a great.

Our product is more differentiated than probably I even realized. I actually I'm going to get off topic here for a second.

I'm walking down going down, I'm getting off the elevator at NADA. And a dealer came up to me and said, you have no idea how great ACV transport Any pitched me on transport and why he's now using AC transport to do his retail cars, to do his store to store from Ohio to Pennsylvania And it was so cool hearing a dealer pitch me at our own product quite better than I could. On capital, we just started ACV Capital, we did just start to lean in. I think we added a couple more sales folks. We're looking at the cost to confirm we've done that We feel really, really good. And we're ready to now start to do more. We feel really good about our new platform on capital and how we're managing risk versus growth We're still, I would say, a bit cautious. We still deny more dealers than we accept on but we feel really good about this year that we can start to grow capital a little bit faster. Bill?

Yes.

I would just add on ACV Capital, Shat, that we've talked about the investments we've made over the last couple of years in terms of our platform and our loan management system and infrastructure. So So we're now in a position where we also have a really good team in terms of managing risk Team has done an excellent job So we feel really good about being able to ramp ACV Capital faster this year. And we're certainly baking into our OpEx growth, making sure we have the right go to market team in place to support that. Got it. Great. Thanks for all the color and good luck.

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Naved Khan with B. Riley.

Please proceed with your question.

Great.

Thank you very much. George, maybe can you talk about conversion rate in the fourth quarter, how that trended year on year and sequentially? And the drivers for that?

And the other question I have is on transportation margin. Looks like it was up pretty strong in fourth quarter because you had a pretty nice year on year uptick for the full year. I think you said you're about the target of high teens. So 30 to 70%, we are close to 20% and you can maybe sustain those levels of thoughts there.

Yes.

And on your first question, that's right. Q4 conversion rates were slightly up, which was nice. So that did end up being a nice little tailwind for us. We obviously in our business conversion rate, it is helpful, right, when you have conversion rates up a little bit higher than you're forecasting. So that you're right on. And your second question, I'm sorry, the cars? Drivers? Oh, yes. When you look at why on transport, One reason why transport margins are better and faster is what we're starting to do on bundling. [indiscernible] [indiscernible] On this bundling vehicles. But if you look at it, you've got to move, a car is going from place A to place B and it's going cost you $250 to $300 to move that car. And we already have a truck going in that direction. One of the hardest thing about these one off moves for transport probably for somebody that have done your research, about the old ways to buy cars versus the new ways, is this thought process of if I can put more than one car in a truck, it does start to get your transport costs down. Well, we've been able to pass savings to our dealers on ACV transport while improving our margins.

And we're early in this bundling. But we are growing. You could see it in our numbers. You see Transport giving popular not only on ACV, auctions, but off off off our little closed network here. The more the bigger we get in transport, the more bundling we'll be able to do. And this won't be overnight. Right? Like bundling will take us probably like the next two years to get bundling to be a real significant percentage, but it could get there.

And so it's just it's great because again, it's a two benefit both the dealers seeing a lower cost and also our margins increasing. Yes, Navig, we will speak a bit about kind of an updated view in terms of margin expectations for the transport business at our Analyst Day. In March. So stay tuned for that.

Great. I look forward to it. Thank you. Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Curtis Nagle with Bank of America.

Please proceed with your question.

Great. Thanks very much for taking the question. Just one on guess, the shape of margins for the year. So guess why would 1Q margins be lower than the full year rate by almost half, maybe not quite?

When the revenue growth is a decent bit higher than 1Q than full year.

Is this just maybe reflecting kind of basic seasonality? I think mid year is typically stronger or perhaps the arc of investments Just any help on that would be Would be great. Yes, sure. This is Bill. So So a couple of things. So first, Q1 is when we have the largest trade show of the year for the company, NADA. Which in the industry is kind of the the biggest event. So that does kind of bake into every Q1 So you sort of have that drag, if you will, on OpEx. There is also it's also a function of timing of investments.

So we made some increased investments in Q4 that kind of support growth for next year or for this year rather. That could start flowing through in Q1.

So So you sort of have some distortion there. But I wouldn't real frankly read that much into the differential by quarter. It's just not that significant. Based on our guidance, we're growing adjusted EBITDA 130% year on year in Q1. Versus 150% for the year. So that that 20% differential is frankly not a large dollar amount. So there's a little bit of distortion there in that regard. So I wouldn't read too much into it.

Okay, fair enough. And then just maybe going back to the point on wholesale volumes flat. It sounds like a bunch of scenarios are being contemplated. But I guess anything in terms of how you're thinking about again kind of the shape of the year right, start negative, turn positive or just sort of generally assuming the industry is kind of flat within some range for the year as a whole?

Yes. I mean, we're I mentioned some of this earlier, but I'll I'll try to give a little more color. Yes, so when you think about the year, January was very strong.

It showed us a picture of what if we did get the CLO Optimist in this share, think about like the higher side of our range, right, would be like the whole year is more like January. That'd be great. [indiscernible] February, whether it was weather, weather was other factors. I think weather was quite a big part of it, but there's other factors you're seeing out there And we talk to dealers, they don't think it's just weather. I think there's some they're just wondering how much of this is consumers also [indiscernible] we just thought with everything going on in the world, that it just it doesn't make sense for us to predict to predict anything outside of our own control. So really the thought is go right down the middle. And It's really ironic that the year has started out this way. With such an incredible January.

And such a mixed February that it almost gives gave us the confidence of saying, you know what, let's just give all our investors what we know right now, focus on what we can control and try to take the market out of it as best as we can.

Okay, fair enough. Thank you.

Thank you. Thank you.

Our next question comes from the line of Josh Beck with Raymond James.

Please proceed with your question. Yes. Thanks for taking the question. Maybe two parter. So on the inventory, I think you said it was kind of 25%.

Below pre COVID levels.

Is it likely to kind of remain in that zone for the year and then maybe in 'twenty six and beyond, we start to see that improve. But just curious there, And then I know this is probably a little unfair just because there's so many scenarios going around. But if we were to get some heavy new auto [indiscernible] would it widen that affordability gap versus used cars and be helpful. I mean, you could obviously argue that a lot of ways, but any scenario analysis you can just help us think through tariff scenarios would be helpful as well. Thank you.

Yes, certainly.

On your first question, Let's first assume let's pretend tariff conversations were here on your first question and then we'll try to entertain of your questions with and without tariffs. Without tariffs, I would have thought there would be a steady improvement throughout the year, like ending the year Like it was only 10% to 15% eventually going into next year, we're all guessing But I would have thought we would have a steady improvement dealers starting to gain more used cars. I also think we'll see some of them buying more cars from consumers. I think we're behind the scenes. We're doing more like ACV and others are doing more [indiscernible] So I would have thought there would have been a slight improvement throughout the year. But not a big bang. It would be like improve a little bit each month type of thing. Your second question, obviously, I think everybody in a lot of different industries is trying to figure out is tariffs, like what could this mean? I think the first question is how do OEMs respond [indiscernible] the the full cost both to their dealers and consumers knowing there's already some affordability challenges, some of these have healthy margins.

Right, that they could consider not passing all of it. So I think that though balance with new car inventory on dealers lots are fact is historical levels with some of the OEMs new car inventory is actually higher than historical levels.

So So OEMs are going to have to if the tariffs truly come in, they're going to have to get creative.

I think we're going to see lease payments and other things. And they're going to be thinking [indiscernible] I'll assume a higher residual value or whatever they're going to assume. They can't just force the dealers to have more cars in their lot. And pay these high floor plan fees, it's going to be tricky.

To figure out. And so I'm first starting with the OEM before the dealer before the consumer. And then you kind of flow that through If the tariffs were passed, either in any meaningful way to the consumer, then obviously new retail could be impacted. At least for the brands that are priced higher, maybe the brands that are priced lower would be less impacted. I hate to have all these ifs, right? It's such a tough topic to go through.

And then when you think on the flip side of all that, Yes, to your point, dealers might have to keep a few more trades, so that would be the negative. [indiscernible] on our platform marketplace conversion, if dealers kept more trades marketplace conversion would likely go up. So we would probably get more efficient So if it hits supply in a meaningful way, of a sudden we get more efficient. You guys saw a couple of quarters where we had really crazy conversion rates in COVID So those are a lot of ifs.

Hence why with all this stuff going on in the world, some of the analysts had the market recovering quite a bit this year. Right, in their assumptions for the ACU model for this year. What we're telling you all is whatever your assumptions were last year, that was before all this tariff craziness was going out there, all this other craziness out there, assume a flat market Assume we're going to focus on weaker control. And I think we're going to be in good shape.

Super helpful. Thank you for confirming that. [indiscernible] Thank you.

And we have reached the end of the question and answer session. I'll now turn the call back over to Tim Fox for closing remarks.

Great. Thank you. And thanks everybody for joining us on the call today. We look forward to seeing those of you who can join us in live in New York on March 11, And if not, obviously, we'll have a webcast available.

And once again, thank you for your interest in ACV ACV have a great evening.

And ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time.