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agilon health, inc. Stock Price: Quote, Forecast, Splits & News (AGL)

Perplexity Finance

Company Profile

agilon health, inc. Price & Performance (AGL)

Stock Performance

Updated Apr 17, 8:00 PM UTC

agilon health, inc.

$4USD

-$1.47 (-26.87%)

Open

$4.62

Market Cap

$1.65B

Year High

$7.73

High

$4.63

P/E Ratio

-6.6

Year Low

$1.50

Low

$3.22

Dividend Yield

0.00%

Volume

22.40M

Latest News

Analysts Remain Split on Agilon Health’s Future Amid Recent Stock Volatility
Apr 19, 2025
Agilon Health’s stock has seen dramatic swings this year, with a 165% surge year-to-date despite a 77% drop since its 2021 IPO. While the company’s value-based care model and strategic adjustments have drawn attention, analysts are divided, with price targets ranging widely from $2 to $8.50 per share.123
Bernstein Upgrade Sparks Rally as Agilon Health Refocuses Strategy
Apr 18, 2025
A recent analyst upgrade to ‘Buy’ by Bernstein triggered a 42% weekly gain for Agilon Health’s shares. The boost comes as the company exits unprofitable partnerships and reduces Medicare Part D exposure, aiming for improved profitability. Investors are watching for further operational gains as Agilon expands its Medicare Advantage membership.456
Earnings Outlook for Agilon Health Stays Cautious Despite Revenue Growth
Apr 17, 2025
Despite reporting $6.06 billion in 2024 revenue and strong Medicare Advantage membership growth, Agilon Health faces skepticism from analysts, who largely maintain ‘Hold’ ratings. Projected 2025 revenues remain flat, and losses are expected to shrink but not disappear, as the company navigates industry challenges and aims for long-term profitability.783

What's Happening

Peers

Earnings

Report Date

—

Rev Estimate

—

Avg 1d Change

13.76%

Report Period

H1 2025

EPS Estimate

—

Implied Move 1d

—

Transcript

4m 49s

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the AGL Energy Half Year Results Briefing Conference Call. All participants will be in listen only mode. Will be a presentation followed by a question and answer session. I'd now like to hand over the conference to Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, Mr. Damian Nicks. Please go ahead. Thank you for joining us for the webcast of AGL's twenty twenty five half year results.

5m 15s

I'd like to begin by acknowledging the traditional owners of the land I'm on today. The Gadigal people of the Aurora Nation, and pay my respects to their elders past, present and emerging. I'd also like to acknowledge the traditional owners of the various lands which you're all joining from. Today, I'm joined by Gary Brown, Chief Financial Officer Officer Joe Egan, Chief Customer Officer and Marcus Brokoff, Chief Operating Officer. As noted in the ASX, Marcus has announced his retirement with effect from the September 15 after five great years of service with AGL, and we've commenced working through an orderly I'll get us started, and we'll have time for questions at the end. This slide provides a good overview of the key themes Gary and I will cover today. Firstly, our strong earnings result for the half in line with expectations, which I'll cover shortly. Secondly, we continue to strive to connect every customer to a sustainable future, and continue to provide our customers with great products and services. Amidst another period of heightened market activity, our customer markets business recorded good growth in overall customer services across both energy and telecommunications as well as Netflix customer services.

6m 26s

Our customer satisfaction continues to remain very strong, and strategic MPS also in a good position with a score of plus three. And we've marginally increased our spread to market churn to 5.5 percentage points. Encouragingly, our retail transformation program is already delivering benefits to the business and our strategic equity investment in Kalusa completed in January. Importantly, we continue to support our customers through this ongoing period of cost of living pressures. With $75,000,000 of our $90,000,000 customer support package now delivered to customers. Turning to the transition of our energy portfolio, we continue to make good progress. After consecutive periods of excellent fleet performance, our thermal fleet availability factor was lower for this half primarily due to two planned major coal fired unit outages in the first half, compared with just one in the prior corresponding half. Despite this result, we do expect stronger performance as we continue to invest in availability and flexibility. Our development pipeline is growing to seven gigawatts. With new firming options added following the acquisition of Firm Power and Terrain Solar. And I'm pleased to say the 500 megawatt Lidel battery is on track to commence operations in early twenty twenty six. Importantly, our flexible fleet capacity has increased to 7.6 gigawatts, 200 megawatts higher with our second Neo and battery agreement, and we're targeting final investment decisions on an additional 1.4 gigawatts of grid scale battery projects within the next twelve to eighteen months.

Turning now to the financial results. Underlying EBITDA was broadly flat on the prior half. Due to increased earnings and value captured from the flexibility in the generation portfolio. Offset by lower expected consumer customer margin due to market activity, and increased operating costs to acquisitions and to manage outages during the half. Underlying profit after tax was $373,000,000 7% lower than the prior half. With the decrease mainly driven by higher depreciation and amortization, resulting from the continued investment the availability and the flexibility of AGL's assets. Increased income tax paid and sustaining CapEx drove operating free cash flow lower. However, we continue to maintain a strong level of cash conversion. An interim ordinary dividend of $0.23 per share has been declared fully franked. Based on a targeted 50% to 75% payout ratio of underlying impact for the total FY 'twenty five dividend. We've narrowed our FY 'twenty five financial guidance ranges in line with the strong first half performance, and I will discuss this at the end of the presentation. Encouragingly, current forward wholesale electricity price curves for FY 'twenty six and FY 'twenty seven remain strong. Now moving to safety, customer and people metrics. We've recorded a good improvement in our total injury frequency rate.

9m 23s

Down to 2.8 per million hours worked, driven by our acute and relentless focus on preventing injuries across the organization. Which has included numerous safety awareness campaigns and targeted workshops. This is an encouraging result, particularly across two major outages, However, we must continue to strive to further improve this metric. I've already spoken to our customer satisfaction and strategic NPS scores, And our employee engagement score remains steady at 72% from a pulse survey undertaken in November. Assisting our customers with the ongoing cost of living pressures remains a key priority. And I'm pleased to report that we've delivered 75,000,000 of our $90,000,000 customer support package to customers that need it the most. As you can see at the bottom of the screen, we've embedded the customer support program into our everyday operations, including upgrading digital resources to improve accessibility and streamline support for customers in need. [indiscernible] Also at the bottom, you'll see the significant amount of government bill relief that has been delivered to eligible AGL customers with over $1,000,000,000 projected to be delivered by the end of FY twenty twenty five. Now to our FY 2027 strategic targets, where we continue to make strong progress and strive to deliver on them.

10m 42s

Starting on the left hand side, for those items I've not already discussed, our digital only customers metric has increased further towards our 60% target. The speed to market improvement has remained stable. We've recorded good growth in our cumulative customer assets in store metric and we'll provide an update on green revenue at the full year results in August. Turning to the right hand side, we whilst we recorded an lower EAF result for the half, we anticipate improvement for the second half and remain confident of stepping this up to the 88% target over the coming years. Decentralized assets under management are 50 megawatts higher at 1.3 gigawatts. And we now have almost 1.2 gigawatts of new renewable and firming capacity in development contracted and delivery, including the new 200 megawatt NeoN virtual battery agreement. I'll now spend a few minutes talking to the transition of AGL, how we continue to execute on our strategy before handing over to Gary. Just a recap of our two primary strategic objectives, which I'll spend some time on in the coming slides. Connecting every customer to a sustainable future as well as transitioning our energy portfolio. Customer markets continues to demonstrate strong growth in the core business, we're capturing a disproportionate share of the rapidly growing EV market.

12m 4s

Further, our retail transformation program is already delivering benefits AGL, Our continued investment in flexibility and availability is delivering value in the energy transition. We've also added new firming options to our development pipeline, following the acquisition of Firm Power and Terrain Solar. In an increasingly volatile market, we are benefiting from our diversified portfolio of flexible assets. We have a clear strategy in place and have made significant progress on its delivery. Our strategy provides us sufficient flexibility for our business to remain resilient to the external uncertainties as we remain acutely focused on execution and delivery. At the full year results, I spoke to the important of policy AGL regulatory stability to enable the substantial investment for the energy transition. We look forward to continued collaboration across the industry and government on the policy settings we need to drive Australia's energy transition. Starting with our customer markets business, which continues to make significant progress in an evolving market. Supported by our leading energy brand, a large customer portfolio providing economies of scale and strong operational performance. We maintain our number one market share in commercial solar and hold one of Australia's largest demand side flexibility portfolios, with 1.3 gigawatts of decentralized assets under orchestration.

13m 30s

Additionally, our award winning Electrify Now platform is a power empowering Australians to embrace electrification, And I've already highlighted the great strides we're making in the EV space. A core element of our strategy is to be the partner of choice for customers as they electrify and decarbonize. And our core business remains key in delivering value to both customers and shareholders, as well as driving sustainable growth. Our strategic partnership and equity investment in Kalusa announced in June was a major step of our retail transformation program. A program aimed at simplifying our products, processes and operating model, and importantly, the pathway to accelerating our ambition to connect every customer a sustainable future through electrification. Crucially, we're making great progress on building a future ready business through the Retail Transformation Program. Which is already delivering benefits to AGL.

14m 26s

On the left hand side, you can see that product simplification has led to a 19% reduction [indiscernible] streamlining our product offerings. We've already unlocked operating model benefits and the successful first phase of the sales force implementation has enhanced the customer and the agent experience. Importantly, we'll be targeting new capability to optimize flexible load shifting, integrated embedded AI to further enrich the agent and the customer experiences, and facilitate the migration of over 100,000 customers onto our innovative future state platform. This program will not only deliver an entirely new technology architecture, we're also rebuilding the business to simplify our products, processes and operating model. Just a reminder that this is a four year program and is expected to generate pre tax savings of approximately $70,000,000 to $90,000,000 annually from FY 'twenty nine.

15m 23s

One of Customer Markets' core strategic pillars is to lead in electrification. And we are incredibly well positioned to leverage the opportunities presented by the near doubling of NEM demand projected by 02/1950. Additionally, it's interesting to note that for the first time in six years, we're seeing growth in native demand. As we've discussed previously, the major driver of this expected growth is the electrification of the home, transportation and broader industry. We continue to see growing demand for electrification products from our consumer, and large business customers. Importantly, AIMO projects strong EV led demand growth over the longer term, forecasting approximately 60 terawatt hours of demand by 02/1950. [indiscernible] There is a significant opportunity to orchestrate the ever increasing flexible load of EV battery encouraging off peak charging and thereby shifting load to the overnight period through pricing signals, optimizing both pricing and portfolio outcomes for AGL and our customers. To provide some context here, our EV Night Saver plan has shown customers consuming four times a load in the overnight window compared to a standard retail customer without an EV. We also recognized the major growth opportunities of adjacent products and services, such as EV subscriptions, fleet transitioning and public charging, which I'll touch on, on the next slide.

16m 47s

At the full year results, I also spoke to the material uplift in domestic data center development pipelines. Particularly in New South Wales, Victoria and the ACT. And it's encouraging to see the latest forecast project about 17 terawatt hours of data center led energy demand by 02/1950. Continuing this theme, I'm pleased to say we are capturing a disproportionate share of the rapidly growing EV market. With the increase in AGL, EV plans materially outpacing the growth in the number of EVs on the road over the last nine months. Crucially, we have a compelling suite of EV plans, propositions and partnerships which will be the foundation of continued expected growth. I've already spoken to our EV Night Saver plan which has seen up to 44% of customers' daily load shifted to the lower tariff overnight window, highlighting the success of incentivizing off peak charging. We've expanded the OVO Energy Australia's EV control program to include MINI, BMW and Tesla customers and progressing towards vehicle to grid readiness. Impressively, our new EV curbside public charging offer, in partnership with PlusES, has seen seventeen fifty charging sessions in the first month alone. We've also acquired the Eviti ChargePoint Management System.

18m 4s

And expanded our BP Pulse partnership extending our reach beyond fuel. Overall, we are well positioned to meet our customer needs drive innovation and grow in this important and rapidly evolving market. Now to the transition of our energy portfolio. Starting with a discussion of how energy market and macro trends are benefiting our diversified and flexible portfolio of generation assets. On the left hand side, you can see the significant increase in volatility across four NEM states over the past ten years. Led by South Australia, which is one of the highest penetrations of renewable generation in the world, and where our Torrens battery is located. Broadly speaking, we expect volatility to remain elevated, as coal fired generation comes to the end of its life and renewable penetration continues to increase, boding well for our growing portfolio of grid scale batteries. As solar penetration continues to increase in the NEM, there is an ever increasing divergence between pricing in the middle of the day compared to other timeframes over a twenty four hour period. The graph on the right shows that overnight prices are contributing more to average daily prices than in the past. This is benefiting both wind and the existing baseload fleet.

19m 19s

Turning now to how our investment in flexibility and availability in our fleet is continuing to deliver value in the energy transition. The left hand slide shows a good overview of our flexible fleet capacity currently in operation, contracted or under construction. Approximately 7.6 gigawatts in total, including over 3.2 gigawatts of cold fire flexing capability. Enabling us to optimize realized pricing outcomes on the supply side of our portfolio. Added to this, we are targeting final investment decisions on an additional 1.4 gigawatts of grid scale battery projects within the next twelve to eighteen months, I'll speak to shortly. On the right hand side, you can see the prudent investment in our thermal generation fleet, with improved availability over consecutive periods. Availability was lower in the first half, as I mentioned at the beginning, given we had two major planned outages this half as opposed to one in the prior half. However, do anticipate an improvement in the second half and are confident of a achieving our FY '27 thermal EAF strategic target of 88%. Now to our development pipeline, which continues to grow with the key highlight being the addition of 1.2 gigawatts of selected firming projects, following the acquisition of Firm Power and Terrain Solar announced last August.

20m 39s

You'll also notice we've added 2.4 gigawatts of firming projects from the acquisition to our early stage opportunities, strengthening our portfolio optionality. Additionally, there's approximately a further four gigawatts worth of projects from the acquisition that will be assessed in the future. Overall, we are well positioned with the size, maturity and quality of our development pipeline. The focus now is on the continued timely execution of projects, of the highest portfolio value. And it should be noted that the pipeline will continue to evolve as projects will come in. And we're not economic out of the pipeline. Importantly, we are targeting final investment decisions for 1.4 gigawatts of grid scale battery projects within the next twelve to eighteen months. This consists of almost 900 megawatts across four batteries in New South Wales, and a 500 megawatt battery in Queensland. Final investment decisions will only be taken where projects are expected to deliver strong risk adjusted returns. We expect these projects to be funded on balance sheet through operating cash flows as well as liquidity and debt headroom. Just a very quick update on the Lydell battery, which is on track commence operations in early twenty twenty six. Construction is progressing well, and approximately 30% complete.

21m 58s

With over 1,000 battery cubes delivered to site, as you can see on the right hand side. Site mobilization has been successfully completed. And civil works have commenced at the switchyard and the battery substation. Please note that construction is being completed in a two phased approach. With the first two fifty megawatts expected in operation in early twenty twenty six and the remaining two fifty megawatts in April 2026. Rounding off the discussion with how we're well positioned to navigate through coal and gas recontracting over the medium term before handing back to Gary. Starting with Bayswater, where the current Wilpinjong contract covers about 75% of generation input. With the remainder supplied by our stockpile and a mix of long term and spot purchases of coal. Importantly, our ongoing re contracting strategy leverages Bayswater's major key advantages including its strategic location and significant coal infrastructure. Large stockpile capacity of around 4,000,000 tonnes and ability to accept lower quality coal. Over the past five years, we've also signed five master service agreements, and purchased 1,800,000 tons of spot volume, demonstrating our agility, and strategic purchasing capability. Turning to gas, where our portfolio remains well balanced through to 2027. The gas markets dynamism has opened up new channels for procurement and optimization.

23m 27s

Which allowed us to trade and optimize over 50 petajoules of gas into 2024 alone.

23m 33s

With the QGC supply contract expiring in December 2027, we're evaluating several supplier including new gas service agreements from domestic suppliers and LNG imports. Now back to Gary.

23m 48s

Thank you, Damian, and good morning, everyone. This slide shows an overall summary of our financial results.

23m 54s

Which I'll cover in more detail on the following slides. Overall, a strong financial performance for the half in line with our expectations. Headlined with the announcement of a fully franked dividend. When compared to a strong prior half, underlying EBITDA was broadly flat and underlying profit marginally lower. This was due to a strong generation performance offset by reduced consumer margins, In addition, we saw higher depreciation and amortization which was driven by the continued investment in the availability and flexibility of AGL's assets. Pleasingly today, we announced a fully franked dividend interim ordinary dividend of $0.23 per share consistent with our targeted 50% to 75% payout ratio, underlying NPAT for the total FY 2025 dividend. AGL also currently expects to pay a fully franked dividend for the full year. As we flagged at recent full year results, operating free cash flow was lower due to the one off impact of the prior period's energy bill relief credits received. We note the strong normalized cash flow generation for the period was used to invest in sustaining CapEx to maintain the reliability of our thermal fleet. Along with a tax payment at half year end.

25m 17s

Being $673,000,000 higher due to higher investing cash flows and Importantly, maintain our BAA2 investment grade credit rating and have ample headroom to covenants. [indiscernible] I'll first take you through group underlying profit in more detail. Starting on the left hand side, you will see one nonrecurring item at attributable to the closure of the Camden Gas project and divestment of Sarat Gas Project. We Moving further to the right, the softer customer markets performance was primarily driven by margin compression across the consumer gas and electricity portfolios. Consumer electricity gross margin compression was largely driven by a price change decision to not pass through the full cost movements due to numerous factors, including customer affordability. Furthermore, margins were impacted as customers switched to lower priced products affecting both the consumer gas and electricity portfolios. This was partially offset by a stronger margin performance by our Perth Energy We coupled with a favorable movement in retail transformation operating expenses and lower net debt bad debt expense Integrated Energy continued to perform very well through a period of heightened volatility in wholesale energy markets, supported by our growing fleet of dispatch capacity and flexible assets. This enabled strong volatility capture and realized portfolio pricing outcomes despite a period of higher planned and forced plant outages.

26m 53s

Moving now to our growing battery portfolio. The $17,000,000 bar for batteries reflects the full six months of operation of the Torren's battery compared to only three months in the prior period. As well as the commissioning, of the Broken Hill battery in the half. Higher growth spend related to increased development capability as we deliver upon our ambition to add new renewable generation and firming coupled with integration costs associated with the acquisition of Firm Power and Terrain Solar. And the last two bars of the Integrated Energy segment related to increased spend to maintain and improve thermal fleet plant availability. Coupled with higher labor costs. Moving further to the right, CME being our centrally held expenses. Is attributed partly to additional technology spend driven by additional licensing costs to support the retail transformation program. With other expenses largely reflecting the impact of inflation. At the full year results, we indicated an uplift in depreciation and amortization in FY twenty twenty five of approximately $70,000,000 to $80,000,000 for the full year. This increase is largely attributable to an increase in environmental rehabilitation well as the full year depreciation impact of the Torrens Island battery. And finally, the slight decrease in net finance cost was driven by the lower net debt position and lower income tax paid reflected the marginal decrease in underlying profit before tax.

28m 23s

This slide has a focus on operating costs within the business. We set ourselves a target for FY '25 to maintain costs flat to FY 2024 in a period of heightened inflation funded by significant productivity initiatives. We We're on target to achieve this at the half year, noting the impact of growth expenditure largely relating to the integration of firm power and Terrain Solar, Broadly speaking, inflation and higher spend to maintain and improve plant reliability is expected to be offset by strong productivity benefits across the business, lower net bad debt expense and channel and marketing spend as well as operating costs abated primarily from the divestment of the Sarat gas project. Taking a closer look at the $41,000,000 of productivity and other benefits, this was largely driven by operating model and labor efficiencies across the business along with various other initiatives. Turning now to customer markets performance. Total services to customers increased by 46,000 driven by steady growth in energy, telecommunications and Netflix services. Importantly, we maintained strong customer metrics including a favorable churn spread to rest of market of 5.5 percentage point On the right hand side, as anticipated, you can see the decrease in consumer customer gross margin, driven by the factors I discussed earlier. [indiscernible] expect this trend to continue into the second half albeit stabilizing in future periods.

29m 50s

Now to fleet performance and operations. After consecutive periods of excellent thermal fleet performance, the commercial availability of our thermal fleet was down 5.8 percentage points. Mainly due to an additional major plant outage at Loyang A, compared to the prior half, coupled with two minor unplanned outages at Bayswater and Loyang A during the half. But what has been most important is that despite this weaker performance, our fleet was available when it mattered. With the volatility captured through trading up over 11 percentage points to 70.6%. Overall, generation was flat on the prior half. A good result considering the reduced asset availability. Importantly, our investment in our flexible asset fleet continues to capture value in an increasingly volatile energy market. On the left hand side, you can see how our growing portfolio of flex AGL price for the period, benefiting from increasing market volatility higher intraday price distributions, and the ability of our dispatchable assets to flex to meet market needs. The middle graph breaks this down by asset type, Encouragingly, this also shows the premium we're achieving for our coal fired generation assets through our investment in unit However, just as importantly, we can observe the premium that hydro, gas, and batteries are able to achieve based on being very flexible assets.

31m 21s

It is these asset classes that we continue to focus on delivering as we progress through the transition. And on the right hand side, you can see that our grid scale batteries are delivering strong performance and returns. With further investment planned. Please note, the light shaded bars denote forecasted EBITDA contribution from the and beyond. [indiscernible] As I noted in August, the uptick in thermal sustaining is primarily due to the two major planned outages for this year. Compared to one in f y twenty four. Noting that both major planned outages were successfully completed in the first half. Just as a reminder, over the medium term, sustaining capital spend on our thermal assets is forecasted to be between $400,000,000 and $500,000,000 per annum. Broadly speaking, this number will be closer to $400,000,000 if there's one major planned outage for the year and closer to $500,000,000 if there are two. This prudent investment is expected to continue and support the strong overall performance of our thermal asset fleet. Importantly, in line with our strategy, growth spend for this year will focus on the construction of the Dell battery, approximately $500,000,000 of the total $750,000,000 forecasted construction cost with approximately $125,000,000 remaining in FY '26.

32m 50s

Customer markets growth spend will focus on further advancing our energy as a service and electrification solution initiatives. Turning now to cash flow, which was headlined by our significant investment in growth and acquisitions during the half. Coupled with our strong cash conversion results. I'll quickly speak to some of the key movements. You may recall from the full year results that we received $381,000,000 worth of government bill relief at the end of FY 2024 Although these funds have all been credited to customer accounts, only $257 of this has been absorbed by billing charges in the first half. And the remainder to be absorbed by customers in future billing periods. You will also see a cash tax payment of and $53,000,000 reflecting PAYG installments for FY 2025 alongside final tax payments for FY 2024. A reminder that we have now started to fully franked dividends from this interim dividend with the expectation that this would continue for the FY 2025 full year dividend. Additionally, the majority of the significant items cash outflow relates to implementation costs The uplift in investing expenditure was driven by the pipeline and optionality. And I've already spoken to the drivers for the higher sustaining and growth capital spend on the previous slide.

34m 18s

Overall, operating free cash flow excluding the impact of bill relief timing was $235,000,000 lower at $291,000,000 As you can see on the bottom left hand side, our cash conversion rate, excluding margin calls, rehabilitation and the timing of bill relief. Remains strong at 86%. Now to our funding position, which remains strong after we significantly de risked our debt portfolio in FY '24. Achieving a larger and more diversified pool of capital with increased debt tenure. Importantly, no major refinancing is required until FY '26. Liquidity position remains very healthy. With $1,450,000,000 in cash and undrawn committed debt facilities, and the marginal decrease in debt tenor for the half is due to time decay. Moving to the right hand side, $673,000,000 increase in net debt was largely driven by our prudent uplift in sustaining capital expenditure, over $500,000,000 spent on growth and acquisitions. Coupled with the timing of energy bill relief remittance. This was partially offset by strong operating cash flow generation. In terms of rating and headroom, we continue to maintain our B two stable investment grade Moody's rating with ample headroom to credit metrics. Concluding with market conditions, this slide shows the observable curves for both swap pricing as well as the cap curves.

35m 49s

Starting with the left hand side, you can see a good up uptick in FY 'twenty six and FY 'twenty seven swap pricing in recent months. And on the right hand side, cap pricing for both New South Wales and Victoria has also increased materially increased. Of course, it is too early to predict how pricing will eventuate in 2020 and onwards. But we believe that our portfolio is well positioned with a focus on the growing portfolio of grid scale batteries and flexible assets. By talking to the FY twenty twenty five guidance.

36m 26s

As mentioned at the beginning, we've narrowed our FY 2025 financial guidance ranges in line with a strong first half performance, with earnings expected to moderate in the second half due to the three main expected drivers you can see on the The ongoing value captured from our flexibility of our generation fleet is expected to be partially offset by the impacts of typical weather seasonality. Further, we expect earnings to be impacted by ongoing customer competition as well as increases in depreciation, amortization and finance costs. As Gary discussed, encouragingly, operating costs are expected to be flat. Excluding the impact of acquisitions and growth. You for your time. And we're now open for questions. We will now open for questions.

37m 20s

We will take one question at a time The first question comes from Tom Allen at UBS. Good Good morning, Damien, Gary and the broader team, and congratulations on a solid first half.

37m 37s

For my one question, I might go to Slide 26 in your presentation, which is providing a strong outlook for the EBITDA contribution you're expecting The batteries under construction at Torrance and Lidel. You previously guided returns from batteries in quite a broad range. Just wondering if you could please provide an update on the returns you're seeing from those operational batteries and how these might evolve in the future?

37m 58s

Yes. Thanks, Tom. Good morning and great to Look, very deliberately on this slide, and at top [indiscernible] expect to raise to get to FID on We are seeing strong performance, particularly out of the Torrens Island battery. We've got Broken Hill now in operation, and we also have Vladel battery roughly 30% complete.

38m 20s

So what that slide is demonstrating is we still believe there is absolute great returns in these batteries. That's why we're moving ahead with it. We still have that range of 7% to 11%. What I would say right now is those batteries right now in the market higher than that That makes sense, Damian.

38m 42s

A common question from investors relates to over the coming years as more back capacity gets built out across the national electricity market, should we expect that to eat into capacity prices and moderate returns for batteries? Recognizing that batteries are used a little differently in an integrated portfolio rather than a standalone battery, but To summarize your comment, we should take away from this that the outlook for batteries continues to look strong and continuing to strengthen?

39m 13s

Yes, exactly, Tom. And look, I think you're right, there's the value of the integrated portfolio, absolutely. But I think your comment there around as more batteries come into the market, there is so much that needs to be built over the next decade, right? So we look at that as an opportunity. I don't think you're going to see any time soon that market flooded with too many batteries.

39m 37s

Thanks, Damian. That's clear. We have Dale Kinders from Berenjoe. Morning, Damien, Gary and team. Just in terms of the CapEx acceleration on batteries, Should we be using a raring costs for the 1.4 gigawatts, which is kind of implying something in the order of of $2,000,000,000 to $2,500,000,000 of CapEx. Noting that that is really higher than the $600,000,000 to $800,000,000 per annum spoken about over the last couple of years, So what is the right CapEx number? And how do you think about are we now spending more on growth Look, I think the way to think about it, I mean, we will look look to take FID on these batteries over the next twelve to eighteen months. That's the first point. And then we'll be looking to deploy them over that one to two years. So it's a range going to happen over a range of time. We'll obviously won't take FID unless we're comfortable in the economics of the batteries. In terms of the cost, and I'll just give you a bit of a picture, I think, like we did the Torrens Island battery, that was absolutely the bottom of the market. When we did the Lidel battery, it's probably towards the higher end of the market where we saw both supply chain issues COVID, etcetera, etcetera.

40m 46s

Clearly, we are in market right now as we're thinking about these new batteries. I would say what we're seeing is 30% to 40% more benefits from batteries going forward in terms of where the cost positioning goes. So cost coming off, if nothing else, and dipping and therefore we see those strong returns. [indiscernible] And then just in terms of the balance sheet capacity to fund this and thinking about the QGC contract roll off, which will have an impact in your FFO, What's the right metric for us to watch? Is it the 20% FFO to debt? And how are you thinking about capacity sort of in that 2728 timeframe?

41m 26s

Gary? Yes. Hi, Daniel. So [indiscernible] think as you're alluding to, we're sitting at a net debt position of about $2,000,000,000 which is pretty consistent with where we were roughly twelve months ago. I think it's also important to note in that period we've applied significant money towards growth CapEx and acquisitions So we're really pleased with where the balance sheet is at the moment. From an FFO to net debt perspective, we're currently sitting at about 40%. Obviously, the minimum threshold there for Baa2 is about 22%. So So we do think we'll range in that sort of well above that metric for sure, whether it's 40%, 50%, that type of thing. But certainly, we think quite comfortably we're within that credit metric I think call out is, clearly, we see this as both from underlying cash flows and the debt available. I think you're seeing [indiscernible] behind us, well behind our strategy. And I think you'll see the banks also want to lean in harder around sort of green CapEx as well through this period.

42m 29s

Okay, thanks. Thanks, Tal. Next up, we have Anthony Mulder from Jefferies. Charles, I thought on Slide 14, hollowing that the market has changing, that one on the right hand side of effect. And I guess I guess what you're highlighting is that we're going to need more electricity in the back end of the clock. But obviously, there is now a review underway for the NEM or the NIM. Just wanting to understand as to what you're hoping that that review could conclude please?

43m 5s

Yes, sure. Thank you. And so let me just touch on that slide really briefly. This has probably been the first time in six years we've seen that demand starting to really come through into the market. So a positive terms of where we thought it's going and that's on the back of EV data centers, AI and so forth. So we do see that as an absolute positive trend going forward. Therefore, we're going to need that portfolio of assets to manage Demand will grow and we we are doubling of demand over till 02/1950, it's quite significant when you think about it. So that's the portfolio we're looking to build. In terms of the Nelson review, that is it's really only just kicked off. It's early days. We are engaging through the Nelson review. For us, it's about ensuring that all of the services that the market needs is going to be compensated for. So as this market transitions from renewables with firming assets, we want to make sure that all of the assets are required compensated through that period. So we'll continue to engage with that review. That review is roughly a twelve month review. And obviously, I think it's a good opportunity for the market to reset and make sure it is ready for the future and this future is coming at us.

44m 18s

So we want to make sure we get it right too.

44m 22s

Does that imply that you're not you don't believe that you're fully compensated for that generation that you have from the coal fleet at that back end of the clock? I think it's all of the services that are going to be required into the future. So if you think about whether it's a gas peaker, we want to make sure those gas peakers are fully compensated for all of the services they'll offer, but not just gas peakers. All of the various services that are out there. And I think the other big piece of the puzzle is ensuring that consumer energy resources are part of this as well. So when you think about this market of the future, consumer energy resources AGL and what that will play in the market is going to also be incredibly So we want to make sure that is fully baked into the thinking of this review.

45m 8s

Very good. Thank you. Next up, we have Rob Cove from Morgan Stanley. Go ahead, Rob.

45m 17s

Good morning. Congratulations on the first half result.

45m 21s

I wanted to direct the question to Ms. Egan if she's on the call.

45m 26s

If I look at your slide outlining your FY 2027 strategic targets, I guess if I was worried about any of them, I might be a little bit worried about the NPS score. I know that's not the be all and end all of consumer satisfaction and it's tough times out there for a lot of customers. But I wonder if we could trouble you for some color on the the trends in your NPS score, please?

45m 47s

Hi, Rob. Thanks for the question. Look, we're seeing really I think strategic NPS absolutely remains a priority for us, and we have seen the sector see a little bit of pressure on strategic MPS at the moment. But our transactional NPS scores on all of our customer journeys are all improving really strongly. Our customer satisfaction is at a really high level and pleasingly AGL of our operational AGL metrics are really, really strong. Complaints are down, digital engagements up, our churn spread to market is also improving. So I think overall, we're really happy with the customer experience where and the feedback we're getting from our customers.

46m 33s

And maybe just to add to that Rob. I think the other thing to think about where there is this The cost of living pressures that people are under when they are doing those NPS surveys, that is what's some of that language also comes through as well, which is holding it down. But don't let me sit here and say that it's not a big target. We've got to go after it. And that's the challenge for us to try to deliver.

46m 56s

Yes. Thank you very much. I appreciate the color. Maybe next question is for Mr. Brokoff and congrats on your announcement there, sir. I wanted to ask a question about the middle slide of Slide 20 which shows the plants average realized performance versus or capturing volatility. You've done a lot of work on the coal plants there. Should we be thinking that that kind of realized result for Loinga and Basewater is the run rate or is there perhaps even more to come [indiscernible] from that please.

47m 34s

The availability, I think it's also clear, was not where we wanted to be. I two major outages which was planned, so that's the reason why the commercial availability is down. But we had also some Qubilex forced outages over the time. I think the portfolio has responded very well and that I think the reflection of the middle column. When we say volatility captured, which was quite So we were proud that our trading capabilities and our fleet was react very well on these occurrences. So from this perspective, I think we were very happy Going forward, I think when it comes to When it comes to our commercial availability, we believe going further up in Commercial, and that's what we are thinking about.

48m 32s

Okay, great. Thank you. I appreciate that color. Can I sneak in a third question? Or tell me no if not? But just on the chart next to that one, the battery EBITDA, which I guess in FY 2027 our team is measuring at $154,000,000 of EBITDA. Previously, when you were breaking down those earnings targets or forecasts, incorporated in there was like a sold cat position with a 50% firmness factor Is that the same kind of thinking that's gone into these Roughly, yes. It's good that you put [indiscernible] Nothing gets past us around here. Thank you, Rob. Next up, we have Gordon Ramsay from RBC.

49m 27s

Congratulations on the results, ladies and gentlemen. Marcus, sorry to see you leave. I'm just going to continue on question on the thermal fleet performance and improved volatility capture. You said that was captured through running thermal cold unit during night hours and significantly higher gas generation, particularly in South Australia. Just get a little bit more detail about how you did that?

49m 51s

I think South Australia is particular because we are also directed there. I would not say that this is really adding to volatility capture because our EMOVE due to system instability and so on. Is really directing to Torrance units that has led also to higher on gas when it doesn't to gas to power, But at the end of the day, I think the fleet is itself, when it comes from iaholdo power plants, and our batteries have captured this volatility, and then we were benefiting from higher prices during the night. And that has led to the higher volatility captured.

50m 38s

And maybe just to add to that a little bit. I think that's why we talk about the breadth of our portfolio. Marcus touched on those assets. It's not just the coal assets. It's not just the hydro. It's the breadth of those assets. And having 7.6 gigawatts of flexibility now enables us to respond when we need to respond. But given actually the question has been sort of asked twice, I might just get Marcus to quickly touch on his retirement. So Marcus, over to you.

51m 3s

Yes. Thanks for, I think, the riches I'm very happy to have taken this step it's also very clear, I'm very passionate about my job, what I have done We have achieved a lot in the last five years. And also, I'm I'm very proud to work for EGL So that's very clear, but also as we are transitioning our asset fleet Markus Brokoff is also transitioning from from thirty more than thirty years in the energy markets to his private life. Thank you, Markus. Thanks, Gordon. Next up, we have Ann Miles from Macquarie.

51m 46s

Congrats on the result.

51m 48s

Couple of ones, just on the battery, you talk about new projects. What's the thought process around expansion of your existing projects given they're all relatively short? We're seeing pretty much a standard four hour battery now.

52m 1s

Yeah. Thanks, Ian. Look, in terms of what we have in front of us and the 1.4 gigawatts, it's not just about expansion, it's also about making we get the batteries in the right locations of the grid and where our demand [indiscernible] But for us, it's about making sure we are we have that capacity, the Firming capacity where we need it in the grid, where there might be either grid weakness or so forth. But Marcus, do you want to touch on anything else on that one?

52m 29s

Yes.

52m 29s

I think Lidel most probably, if you point to this one, we will not expand Lidel as long as Iraering and wastewater is online, that's very clear because there are some bottlenecks in the grid. So that doesn't make sense. So we are continuing to develop the other project which we have not named there because we are in the tender process. But there is another battery in New South Wales and another battery in Queensland. [indiscernible] more designed to four hour And I think we are very happy that we have not taken a four hour decision with the Lidell battery because battery have prices have come substantially down. As Damian elaborated on. So we are happy that we can now take the right step at the right moment. And I think that shows also our sophistication about when we take the investment decision.

53m 27s

And can you maybe talk batteries. But we're seeing progress in res zones in the next in the coming two to three months possibly Should we be expecting Origin sorry, AGL to be actually making FID decisions on wind and solar in the next eighteen months as well?

53m 46s

Look, I think the way to think about it, Ian, like the pipeline that we have in front of us, we continue to develop all of that pipeline. So in terms of whether it's wind, batteries, gas peakers, that pipe position, through whether it be in the particular zones or whether through other CIS type processes or whatever it might be, we'll then make take the FID at the right time. But just to to, I suppose, remind from a win perspective, we will work on a partnership basis largely. It won't be necessarily all on our balance sheet. If you're sort of trying to calculate what that capital would be, that hasn't changed in our mind. We will be doing it through partnerships and off takes as well.

54m 27s

Or through the capacity investment.

54m 29s

Correct.

54m 29s

Yeah.

54m 31s

Okay.

54m 32s

And look, you mentioned gas there. Have you now found gas pipes for your business to now get through AIS and that permitting? Or are you still hunting for the right location?

54m 46s

I think the way to think about it we are looking closely at a site in WA, a site in fact that we have. Right? So that's more of an expansion opportunity. We obviously clearly have an opportunity South Australia. We have a site there. We have planning for that site. And then we continue to assess the best locations for both New South Wales and Queensland. And then down the track, it would then be Victoria. So I think the way to think about gas would be that's a bit of a longer process in terms of not only ordering the equipment, but also getting through the processes. So batteries first, gas peakers towards if you like, in coming years, not shorter, if that makes sense.

55m 29s

Sure. And just to to oblige me maybe, on your dividend payout ratio, it sort of came off a little And just sort of interested your Frankie has gone up to 100. Is the mindset shifted that you want to be 100% franked around your dividend I guess why the pullback on the sort of that payout ratio Yes.

55m 50s

So our payout ratio is obviously 50% to 75% of underlying NPAT. We had a very strong first half. And I think if you looked at the guidance, it does suggest the 1H, 2H split is more skewed towards the 1H. We're confident now that we're able to fully franked the dividend, the interim dividend, and also talked about the full year dividend as well. Again, we think it's prudent to sort of pay at that range at this point in time halfway through the year. But of course, it always comes down to where we expect future cash flow requirements are in relation to some of our investment and we'll come back at the full year and provide a further update there. [indiscernible] historically, we've always probably gone smaller in the first half than the second. That's just historically what we've done.

56m 43s

Okay. Thank you, Ian. And next up, we have Henry Meyer from Goldman Sachs.

56m 52s

Morning, all. Thanks for the update. I wanted to add some color as to what the changes were over the half that allowed you to narrow the guidance despite some of the unplanned downtime of the coal plants? And then what uncertainties may still remain in the second half, please?

57m 6s

Yes, sure.

57m 6s

So I'll take this one, then I might kick across to Gary.

57m 10s

So if you think about first half, we started with a sorry full year, we start with guidance range of 200,000,000 pounds So we've now narrowed that to €130,000,000 That's on the back of strength of first half. So you'd expect at the half, we would be would be narrowing, which we have. That first strong half also gave us the the view that we can narrow it. But importantly, there's three factors.

57m 31s

That are driving it. One, obviously, the seasonality, half on half, so it is a lower second half than first. That's normal. We normally expect that. Two, we do expect ongoing flexibility and volatility capture in the second half sets of strength. And a little bit of market compression in customer into the second half as well. I think you'll see. But overall, we are we are strongly of view that we can hit these numbers and we'll continue to drive that hard. And with the plan availability also coming up in the second half without the majors, that will help also.

58m 5s

Yes, I think what I'd also add to that is we did guide the market to say we expect depreciation this year will go up between million dollars and $90,000,000 and you can see in the first half, it's gone up by 30,000,000 million dollars So the balance would flow through in the second half and that's primarily in relation to the sustaining capital and also a lot of the growth capital that we've been deploying. And as you'd expect, the interest charge, the finance charge would go up slightly as well because our net debt position has gone up. Again, most of that been driven by the recent acquisition of Fernd Power and Terrain Solar and some of the growth capital as well Great. Okay. Thanks, both. Don't think any of us will start to the one question rule, so I'll squeeze in a second. Slide 19, where we're talking about the gas contract replacement for QGC. How are you thinking about managing the risk of potential margin compression or volume loss as that contract rolls? And how could potentially impact your bundled dual fuel customers as well?

59m 1s

So let me kick this one off. I mean, when we get to 2027, that QGC contract rolling off, just also remembering some of that is back to back with the LNG. So that that comes out. We won't be able to contract gas at that price going forward. That just doesn't exist. But what I would say, the market that therefore will sell into gives us the confidence that we can maintain an appropriate margin in the market going forward. We won't retain that type of margin going forward. Those Those contracts were set at very, very low rates. But I do think our ability and contracting ability and origination will enable us to ensure that we have the appropriate gas and the sufficient gas and to make the margin we need going forward for both our customer markets business, for the generation we're going to need, but also into the broader [indiscernible] Market as well. So that is ongoing. We're in lock of conversations, as you'd appreciate both local supply, but also LNG as well. So I think we sit here confidently that we will be able to first contract that gas and then get an appropriate return in this market.

1h 8s

Thanks, Henry. That's all we have time for in terms of the Q and A session. And that concludes our Q and A. So Thank you all. [indiscernible]

Key Insights

AGL delivered a strong first half result, with underlying EBITDA broadly flat and underlying profit after tax down 7% to $373 million, mainly due to higher depreciation/amortization and continued investment in asset availability and flexibility; an interim fully franked dividend of $0.23 per share was declared.
The company is progressing its energy transition strategy, expanding its development pipeline to 7 GW, including new firming options from the acquisition of Firm Power and Terrain Solar, and targeting final investment decisions on 1.4 GW of grid-scale battery projects within the next 12–18 months; the 500 MW Liddell battery is on track for early 2026 operation.
AGL’s flexible fleet capacity increased to 7.6 GW, with strong performance from operational batteries (returns currently above the previously guided 7–11% range), and further battery investments expected to deliver robust returns as market volatility and demand for firming capacity remain high.
Customer markets showed growth in energy, telecommunications, and Netflix services, with customer satisfaction and NPS scores remaining strong despite cost-of-living pressures; $75 million of a $90 million customer support package has been delivered, and over $1 billion in government bill relief is projected by FY25.
FY25 financial guidance has been narrowed upward due to strong first-half performance, but earnings are expected to moderate in the second half due to seasonality, customer competition, and higher depreciation/finance costs; operating costs are expected to remain flat (excluding acquisitions/growth), and the balance sheet remains strong with ample liquidity and headroom above credit rating thresholds.

Recent Transcripts

2024 revenue grew 40%, but 2025 is a transition year with constrained membership and margin pressure.

AGL delivered strong H1 results, advanced battery investments, and maintained FY25 guidance amid market volatility.

Feb 12

H1 2025

Earnings

H1 EBITDA flat, NPAT -7%

Battery Investment

1.4GW FID planned

Income Statement

Revenue

	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
Revenue	$1.2B	$1.8B	$2.7B	$4.3B	$6.1B
Cost of Revenue	$1.1B	$1.8B	$2.6B	$4.2B	$6.1B
Gross Profit	$94M	$76M	$112M	$70M	$4.8M
Gross Profit %	7.7%	4.2%	4.1%	1.6%	0.08%
R&D Expenses	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

Revenue

$1.2B

$1.8B

$2.7B

$4.3B

$6.1B

Cost of Revenue

$1.1B

$1.8B

$2.6B

$4.2B

$6.1B

Gross Profit

$94M

$76M

$112M

$70M

$4.8M

Gross Profit %

7.7%

4.2%

4.1%

1.6%

0.08%

R&D Expenses

Cash Flow

Net Income

	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
Net Income	-$60M	-$407M	-$107M	-$263M	-$260M
Dep. & Amort.	$14M	$15M	$14M	$20M	$24M
Def. Tax	-$2.8M	-$3.2M	$532K	$0	$0
Stock Comp.	$6.7M	$292M	$28M	$69M	$51M
Chg. in WC	$6.5M	-$55M	-$59M	-$10M	$0

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

Net Income

-$60M

-$407M

-$107M

-$263M

-$260M

Dep. & Amort.

$14M

$15M

$14M

$20M

$24M

Def. Tax

-$2.8M

-$3.2M

$532K

Stock Comp.

$6.7M

$292M

$28M

$69M

$51M

Chg. in WC

$6.5M

-$55M

-$59M

-$10M

Balance Sheet

Cash

	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
Cash	$107M	$1B	$497M	$108M	$188M
ST Investments	$0	$0	$412M	$381M	$212M
Cash & ST Inv.	$107M	$1B	$909M	$488M	$400M
Receivables	$145M	$293M	$492M	$942M	$1B
Inventory	$1	$1	$11M	$0	$0

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

Cash

$107M

$1B

$497M

$108M

$188M

ST Investments

$412M

$381M

$212M

Cash & ST Inv.

$107M

$1B

$909M

$488M

$400M

Receivables

$145M

$293M

$492M

$942M

$1B

Inventory

$11M

Go Deeper

Financial information provided by Financial Modeling Prep. Options data provided by Unusual Whales. Live transcripts provided by Quartr. All data is provided for informational purposes only, and is not intended for trading purposes or financial, investment, tax, legal, accounting or other advice. · See all tickers.

Overview
Latest News
Earnings
Income Statement
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Related

Earnings

Report Date

—

Rev Estimate

—

Avg 1d Change

13.76%

Report Period

H1 2025

EPS Estimate

—

Implied Move 1d

—

Transcript

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Which allowed us to trade and optimize over 50 petajoules of gas into 2024 alone.

23m 33s

With the QGC supply contract expiring in December 2027, we're evaluating several supplier including new gas service agreements from domestic suppliers and LNG imports. Now back to Gary.

23m 48s

Thank you, Damian, and good morning, everyone. This slide shows an overall summary of our financial results.

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37m 20s

We will take one question at a time The first question comes from Tom Allen at UBS. Good Good morning, Damien, Gary and the broader team, and congratulations on a solid first half.

37m 37s

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39m 13s

39m 37s

40m 46s

41m 26s

42m 29s

43m 5s

44m 18s

So we want to make sure we get it right too.

44m 22s

45m 8s

Very good. Thank you. Next up, we have Rob Cove from Morgan Stanley. Go ahead, Rob.

45m 17s

Good morning. Congratulations on the first half result.

45m 21s

I wanted to direct the question to Ms. Egan if she's on the call.

45m 26s

45m 47s

46m 33s

46m 56s

47m 34s

48m 32s

49m 27s

49m 51s

50m 38s

51m 3s

51m 46s

Congrats on the result.

51m 48s

52m 1s

52m 29s

Yes.

52m 29s

53m 27s

53m 46s

54m 27s

Or through the capacity investment.

54m 29s

Correct.

54m 29s

Yeah.

54m 31s

Okay.

54m 32s

And look, you mentioned gas there. Have you now found gas pipes for your business to now get through AIS and that permitting? Or are you still hunting for the right location?

54m 46s

55m 29s

55m 50s

56m 43s

Okay. Thank you, Ian. And next up, we have Henry Meyer from Goldman Sachs.

56m 52s

57m 6s

Yes, sure.

57m 6s

So I'll take this one, then I might kick across to Gary.

57m 10s

57m 31s

58m 5s

59m 1s

1h 8s

Thanks, Henry. That's all we have time for in terms of the Q and A session. And that concludes our Q and A. So Thank you all. [indiscernible]

Key Insights

AGL delivered a strong first half result, with underlying EBITDA broadly flat and underlying profit after tax down 7% to $373 million, mainly due to higher depreciation/amortization and continued investment in asset availability and flexibility; an interim fully franked dividend of $0.23 per share was declared.
The company is progressing its energy transition strategy, expanding its development pipeline to 7 GW, including new firming options from the acquisition of Firm Power and Terrain Solar, and targeting final investment decisions on 1.4 GW of grid-scale battery projects within the next 12–18 months; the 500 MW Liddell battery is on track for early 2026 operation.
AGL’s flexible fleet capacity increased to 7.6 GW, with strong performance from operational batteries (returns currently above the previously guided 7–11% range), and further battery investments expected to deliver robust returns as market volatility and demand for firming capacity remain high.
Customer markets showed growth in energy, telecommunications, and Netflix services, with customer satisfaction and NPS scores remaining strong despite cost-of-living pressures; $75 million of a $90 million customer support package has been delivered, and over $1 billion in government bill relief is projected by FY25.
FY25 financial guidance has been narrowed upward due to strong first-half performance, but earnings are expected to moderate in the second half due to seasonality, customer competition, and higher depreciation/finance costs; operating costs are expected to remain flat (excluding acquisitions/growth), and the balance sheet remains strong with ample liquidity and headroom above credit rating thresholds.

agilon health, inc. Price & Performance (AGL)

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Latest News

Recent Transcripts

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Implied Move 1d

Transcript

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