Albany International Corp. Price & Performance (AIN)

Thank you, Desiree, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Albany International's fourth quarter twenty twenty four earnings conference call. As a reminder for those listening on the call, please refer to our press release issued last night detailing our quarterly financial results. Contained in the text of the release is a notice, regarding our forward looking statements and the use of certain non GAAP financial measures, and their reconciliation to GAAP. For the purposes of this conference call, those same statements apply to our verbal remarks this morning. Today, we will make statements that are forward looking and contain a number of risks and uncertainties. Which could cause actual results to differ from those expressed or implied. A full discussion of these risks, and uncertainties, please refer to both our earnings release of 02/26/2025 as well as our SEC filings including our 10 ks. Now, I will turn the call over to Gunnar Cleveland, our President and CEO will provide opening remarks. Gunnar? Thank you, JC. Good morning and welcome everyone.

Thank you for joining our fourth quarter earnings call.

I'll provide an overview of our business performance Albany Rob will later discuss our financial results in detail. And then the outlook for 2025. We continue to perform well in both our businesses, as evidenced by strong results at Machine Clothing and ongoing operational progress steered by new leadership at Engineered Composites.

While we recognize additional EAC adjustments at AEC, the overall business fundamentals are strong Albany we expect higher revenues and improving profitability over the next several years. For the full year, we reported record revenues of nearly $1,250,000,000 driven by organic growth at AEC and the Heimberg acquisition. With our focus on working capital and cash flow, we generated free cash flow of $59,000,000 in the fourth quarter and $137,000,000 for the full year underlying the strength Our balance sheet continues to be in excellent shape giving us the ability to execute our growth strategy. With the current and projected cash flow and strong balance sheet, we are able to return value to the shareholder as part of our capital allocation strategy We have initiated our share repurchase program. In the fourth quarter of twenty twenty four, we repurchased $15,000,000 of shares. The Board has also authorized a new share repurchase program, which supersedes our current program and is now up to $250,000,000 Turning to our businesses. Machine quoting revenues in the fourth quarter were slightly below same quarter last year due to a strong comparative period. Our focus in the second half of twenty twenty four was to consolidate our operations and discontinue profitable product lines, primarily at the Heimbach business.

This is part of the integration plan and while it leads to lower top line growth, in the short term, it improves our bottom line performance. In terms of grades, packaging and publication were down year over year in the fourth quarter again driven by strong comparisons to the prior year, but the long term trends remain positive, especially for packaging our MC products largest end market. Tissue and pulp remained stable Albany we grew our sales in engineered [indiscernible] partially offset by publications. [indiscernible] terms of geographies, North America continues to be a strong contributor, while South America remains stable with slightly improving trends. Europe was generally flat year over year and we'll be looking for some growth into 2025. Asia was also generally flat year over year with slight weakness in China. Our global MC backlog is stable. There is some consolidation in our paper customer base and we're working with our customers through the transition as they move product to optimize their footprint. At Heimdach, our integration plan is on track. We have consolidated operations and streamlined our footprint. The business is a complement to the legacy Albany Albany in both geography and technology and we continue to sell the product using the Heimbo Right.

Our cross functional integration process is progressing. And we have made considerable improvement in Timebox working capital levels significantly contributing to our consolidated free cash flow results. Our exit run rate on synergies is strong and we're on track to meet our financial goals. Overall, Paper Machine Clothing delivered excellent financial results and going forward, we forecast low single digit revenue growth prospects In our Engineered Composites segment, we recorded revenues of $99,000,000 impacted by additional EAC adjustments in the fourth quarter and lower LEAP revenues. These EAC adjustments were driven by the CHF three ks and the Gulfstream programs. We continue to make progress on the CH-fifty three ks program but needed further adjustments to our EAC due to learning curve and material challenges. Our new leadership team in Salt Lake City is establishing robust process and processes and has invested in training and the frontline leadership enabling growth and learning curve improvements. The CS-fifty two ks is a large program and our operating operating plan is aligned with our customer and their projected growth rate. This will be a significant and profitable program for us well into the middle of next tech After LEAP, CH-53K will be our largest program in terms of revenue.

For Gulfstream, we're also making progress on manufacturing the parts and have a reduced volume exposure coming into 2025. We're growing more confident about space as an additional source of long term revenue. In the quarter, we signed an LTA with a customer and anticipate solid growth from this and other customers in the medium and long term. In 2025, and the next several years, we also project growth in advanced air mobility with both traditional composite structures as well as our proprietary three d woven technology. On LEAP, we continue to monitor the situation and projecting lower volumes both at LEAP and our other Boeing programs. As a result, we're projecting LEAP revenues of approximately $150,000,000 for 2025. We remain ready with ample capacity to ramp up our production quickly as demand recovers. We work closely with Safran and monitor Airbus and Boeing recovery. And are encouraged by some on the news from both Boeing and Airbus. [indiscernible] Our defense business is positioned to grow with JASM and LORASM generally stable and with significant growth potential in the medium term. Hypersonics, is developing with multiple opportunities and we have invested internal funds supplemented by customer funding in this technology.

With our near net shape part approach and investment in capability and capacity, hypersonic parts will be significant growth engine in the medium and long term. During the quarter, we were awarded long term contracts for both existing and new customers of $138,000,000 As these awards translate into purchase orders, they will be added to our existing AEC backlog, which at year end was $1,400,000,000 This is backlog that does not include LEAP volumes beyond the current year and only relates to our other AEC platform. This does provide us visibility and confidence into our business performance beyond 2025. Overall, 2024 was a year of integration and optimization at machine clothing, while at AAC, we did a reset and took several actions to stabilize and improve operations to enable future growth and improving profitability. With all the opportunities for growth at AEC, this is a necessary and critical action that will pay major dividends for our growth ahead. We exited 2024 with one of our best years on record for cash generation with a stronger operational structure and have returned cash to shareholders through our share repurchase program and dividends. In 2025, we will strengthen our foundation to deliver future growth.

Material science is the foundation of our businesses and our ability to continuously develop around our materials and weaving technologies give us an enviable position in our markets. We will continue to focus on cash Capital deployment and strong business performance. At MC, the integration of Heimlich remains center stage. Recently announced that we are consolidating two facilities and we are also divesting a non core business in Italy. At AEC, the team is taking major steps to improve the operations as well as adding additional top talent in operations, planning and supply chain management, enabling improvements in systems processes and workforce. All this realignment that effort sets us up for much healthier and successful next growth spurt. As we grow and strengthen the business, this year we will also consolidate all head to get the benefit of having the team together as well as improved access to talent for key corporate roles. We've been moving mid year 2025 and we'll close down our Albany, New York office while making the current Rochester office available to AEC. The transition will take approximately one year. Additionally, we are overhauling our executive compensation program. Last year, we included cash performance in the short term incentive compensation.

For 2025, we will change the long term incentive compensation [indiscernible] to one third total shareholder return one third return on invested capital Albany one third EBITDA. We believe these actions will further align incentive compensation with long term value create. Looking forward, we are in excellent financial position with strong cash flow and a supportive balance sheet to drive shareholder value and achieve our long term objectives. While discrete items have impacted our short term run rate and outlook, we have completed the vast majority of the hard work to address the issues. Our Heimarc integration is well underway with key actions announced and we have rebalanced our program outlook at AEC to better reflect our current conditions. These actions combined with the enhancement we have made to our leadership team over the past twelve months position us to focus on our long term plan. In the coming months, we will share more details with specific targets, but we are focused on these three primary goals. First, with much of the integration activities behind us, we're focused on growth in the Machine Clothing segment over the next five years. We believe there is opportunity for growth Second, we are fortunate to have won a wide range of programs at AEC across structures, engine and with our proprietary Material Science advantage.

Taken together with the refinements we have made to key programs in 2024, dispositions us for robust segment growth on the top line with compelling contribution margins over the long term. And third, through a disciplined capital allocation program, we can enhance our overall growth rate through additional R and D investments and inorganic initiatives. We have $1,000,000,000 in dry powder and will take advantage of both organic and inorganic opportunities. I would also like to take this opportunity to thank our investors for their support through 2024. As well as our employees for their hard work and dedication. With that, I'll now hand it over to Rob to provide more details on the quarter. [indiscernible] Thank you, Gunnar, and good morning, everyone. I will review our fourth quarter results and then provide our outlook for 2025.

Before reviewing our fourth quarter results, I wanted to discuss an important change that we made in the fourth quarter regarding how we report our global information cost.

Previously, our global information system costs or GIS were shown in aggregate as part of corporate SG and A expenses. And we are now reporting those costs at the segment level.

It is our view that this better reflects the performance of the individual segments and is how we will review segment performance on a go forward basis. Our consolidated EPS remains unchanged and the individual gross margins for the individual segments remain the same. But our adjusted EBITDA margins for the individual segments will be impacted by this allocation. For Q4, we will discuss margins with and without the allocation for comparison purposes, but starting in 2025, our conversation will focus on the margins including GIS costs. Consolidated net sales came in at $27,000,000 down from $324,000,000 in the fourth quarter last year. Primarily driven by lower revenue at AEC, which we will discuss further. Machine Clothing net sales of $188,000,000 decreased 1.9% versus the fourth quarter of the prior year, primarily driven by a comparison to a strong fourth quarter twenty twenty three in the Packaging and Public station grades in North America. Offset with increased sales in engineered fabrics. AEC net sales of $99,000,000 were lower versus the $132,000,000 in the fourth quarter of twenty twenty three on a GAAP basis. Primarily due to a $14,000,000 negative top line impact from the EAC adjustments in the quarter coupled with lower LEAP revenues of 10,000,000 and lower seven eighty seven volumes of $2,000,000 However, we continue to experience growth in our space and advanced air mobility platforms.

Of the $15,000,000 in negative EAC adjustments recognized in the quarter, dollars $9,000,000 related to the CA-fifty three program, and $3,000,000 related to Gulfstream with the remaining amount of fossil number of programs. Consolidated gross profit was 90,000,000 from $120,000,000 in the prior year. Driven by the EAC cumulative catch up adjustment of $15,000,000 and $10,000,000 at machine clothing due to lower gross margins at Heimbox. Machine closing gross margin decreased from 48.8% in the fourth quarter of twenty twenty three to 44.4% in 2024, largely due to lower gross margin AEC gross margins decreased from 20% in the fourth quarter of twenty twenty three to 6.8% primarily driven by EAC adjustments that were detailed previously. Net R and D expenses remained relatively flat in the fourth quarter versus the prior year, and were at 4% of revenue. Consolidated SG and A expenses as a percentage of revenue for the the quarter were down from 20.9% in the prior year to 16.9% due to reduced wages and benefits, lower incentive compensation, and foreign exchange impacts Corporate expenses adjusted for GIS expenses allocated to the divisions were at $10,000,000 or 3.4% of revenue versus $7,000,000 or 2.3% of revenue in the prior year.

The effective tax rate for the quarter was 28% versus 22.6% in [indiscernible] mainly due to a shift of in taxable income to higher rate jurisdictions as well as due to less favorable discrete tax adjustments as compared to the prior year. GAAP net income attributable to the company for the quarter was 18,000,000 compared to $30,000,000 last year, the reduction largely due to the EAC adjustments. GAAP diluted EPS was $0.56 per share in this quarter versus $0.97 in the same period last year. After adjustments primarily related to Heinebak acquisition and other restructuring activities as detailed in our non GAAP reconciliation, the adjusted diluted EPS was $0.58 versus $1.22 in the same period last year. Consolidated adjusted EBITDA was $50,000,000 for the fourth quarter versus $75,000,000 in the prior year period. Machine Clothing adjusted EBITDA including GIS costs, was $54,000,000 a decrease of $8,600,000 versus the prior year.

Adjusted EBITDA margins were 28.5% versus 30.6% in the prior year, Excluding GIS costs, machine closing adjusted EBITDA margins were 30.3% for the current fourth quarter, as compared to 32.1% in the prior year. AEC adjusted EBITDA including GIS cost was $6,000,000 as compared to $24,000,000 in the prior year period.

Adjusted EBITDA margins at AEC were 6.1% of sales versus 18% in the prior year. Excluding GIS costs, AEC adjusted margin were 9.3% for the fourth quarter as compared to 20.5% in the prior year.

During the quarter, free cash flow was $59,000,000 with positive operating cash flow of 78,000,000 offset by capital expenditures of 19,000,000 This brings our year to date free cash flow to 137,000,000 versus $64,000,000 in the prior year.

Our balance sheet remains strong with a cash balance of over 115,000,000 and four eighty two million dollars of borrowing capacity under our committed credit facility. Before discussing our outlook for 2025, I want to highlight that our outlook does not reflect the cost associated with our headquarter consolidation which are currently estimated to be between $6,000,000 and $8,000,000 The low end of our guidance reflects weaker than expected economic conditions, most notably in Europe, combined with challenges in our key AEC programs. The high end of our guide reflects better than expected recovery in our European and Asian markets for machine clothing. At AEC, upside to the midpoint of our guide represents higher LEAP volumes, and accelerated growth in our advanced air mobility platforms. In 2025, we expect machine closings to decline by approximately 3% largely due to foreign exchange headwinds and our decision to divest non core assets. Adjusting for those two items, sales on a comparable basis is forecast to grow by approximately 2% as compared to a decline in the prior year. Our continued focus on delivering Heinebok synergies and operational efficiencies is forecast to result in an approximate 150 basis point improvement in adjusted EBITDA margin for the full year.

AEC top line will show modest growth led by CH-fifty three ks and Advanced Air Mobility largely offset by LEAP.

In 2025, we expect adjusted EBITDA margins of slightly more than 13% at the midpoint of our range. Again, as a reminder, our adjusted EBITDA margins for both our segments and are not strictly comparable to the prior years. The impact is approximately 3% for AEC margins and approximately 2% for machine clothing margins. In total, our consolidated adjusted EBITDA is expected to grow approximately 8% in spite of FX headwinds and our investment in new business ventures, reflecting improved underlying performance at machine clothing combined with recovery at AEC.

We are however facing certain EPS headwinds below the line. Our interest expense is forecasted to increase as our prior interest rate swaps, which were placed back in 2021 expired in the fourth quarter of last year, We have partially offset this by significantly reducing our debt balance utilizing Euro Debt to take advantage of natural hedge opportunities and placing new hedges. This has all helped to offset the overall impact of the interest cost increase. Our interest cost is projected to increase by approximately $5,000,000 in 2025. The second headwind we face is with respect to our tax rate. That is expected to increase to 31% in 2025. This is due to a shift in taxable income to higher rate jurisdictions Please note that our 2024 effective rate of 24.8% benefited from a number of discrete items that are not forecasted to repeat in 2025. All of this translates to an EPS range for 2025 between $3 and $3.4 with the midpoint of our guide at $3.2 In terms of net earnings cadence, we expect 60% of our net earnings to be recorded in the second half of twenty twenty five and project Q2 results to be stronger than Q1.

This is due to the expected rapid AEC combined with the acceleration of Highbox synergies. Now I'd like to open the call for questions. Operator? And our first question comes from the line of Steve Tusa with JPMorgan.

Hi, this is Chigusa Kadoku on for Steve. Thanks for taking my question. My first question is on AAC. You provide an update on CH53K in Gulfstream where you've been seeing some challenges. But what's embedded in your twenty five five outlook as to how these progress through the year? And then on the AEC margins, it's implied in like the 13.5 range for 2025 versus the 4Q exit rate of 6%. But how do you kind of expect the margins to ramp through the year? You probably can't get back to the 20% because of the cost reallocation.

But can you get back to like the 17% range adjusting for the 3% impact?

That you mentioned maybe in the back half?

Well, so we the plan for 2025 is with the current projection of performance at AEC. We believe that over time, we can and with the adjustment from G GIS, we can be in the mid to high teens performance And it will take us going through 2025 but Our plan now with our current projection is as stated, Chagusa.

Yes. Chigusa, I just if I may. The way to think about is these EAC adjustments that we've taken through the fourth quarter reflect our best estimate of the go forward margins, which are reflected in our outlook at 13.5%. To Gunnar's point, we have a number of actions in place to do better than that over time. But I think just important to remember that the guide reflects an EAC that is our current best estimate as to how the program is going to perform going forward.

Okay. Thanks. And then as a follow-up on the free cash flow, you did well over 100% this year, which is great. But how should we think about that for 2025 and then maybe on a go forward basis? As some of these ramp issues are resolved? Thanks.

Yes. No, no, it's a good question. We expect cash flow to range between, let's call it, $90,000,000 and about $120,000,000 this year. Our internal targets are to return net cash flow above 90% of net income in terms of our conversion That's really what we target. And the team has done a phenomenal job at really attacking the working capital balances So what you saw this year is probably a slight level of over performance in terms of taking down the working capital. But going forward, and as Gunnar mentioned, with our new incentive comp structures, right, people are aligned to focus on cash and balance sheet efficiency.

Okay, great. Thank you. Thank you, Shigusa. Our next question comes from the line of Peter Arment with Baird. Your line is open. Yes. Good morning, Gunnar and Rob.

Hey, this is Rob. Gunnar, could you maybe talk a little bit about you mentioned a more conservative kind of view on Boeing's production rates. Just trying to square that with obviously we're seeing higher potential rate breaks Is it more of an inventory issue or just cautiousness just given the history that we've seen with Boeing in the last couple of years?

That's a good question, Peter. And I there is a function of inventory that we're working through, but we are being cautious And as I talk to others in the industry, I think we're not alone about being cautious about the recovery. It is like I said, it is it has some positive signs on what the deliveries, but I am cautious to see the actual move rate at Boeing before we before we make adjustments. And also on LEAP specifically, we're working with Safran We're aligned on our build plan there and we are continuously this is a month by month. I am beginning to be hopeful that there could be a ramp up towards the end of the year because there is there is light at the end of the tunnel. And next year is going to be a strong year. I firmly believe So the wrap up there, is what we're preparing for right now.

And Peter, just one other thing there. Based on our manufacturing footprint and our experience with the we have the ability to ramp very quickly. So we have the flexibility to adjust to market conditions as they evolve.

Okay. So potentially cadence potentially higher in the back half of the year, if need be? So, Gunnar, just also on the CH-53K, obviously, you've replaced the team there last year. You're feeling confident about that team. Just how do you kind of talk about just kind of some of the challenges that you worked through this past quarter and how do we think about that, the improvement for that program as we go into 2025? I would say in fourth quarter, a lot of the actions there were with Christon at the helm He got in there, worked with our frontline leadership development with our training of our employees with the processes. The two areas of focus outside the factory were supply chain. The supply chain is quite extensive on this program with our internal supply chain, it's much easier to balance than external supply chain. And then the planning. So supply chain planning, Training and frontline leadership have been the key areas of improvements. And we've also made in first quarter this year, we've made or added talent in those areas. So we have operational leadership that has strong background in assembly of complex Aircraft, we have planning talent that has strong background in aircraft [indiscernible] And we have a new supply chain leader for AEC that also has strong background in complex supply chain.

So with with the focus on the improvements as well as adding the talent in That's what's gives me the confidence about the path forward.

I appreciate the color. And then just lastly, Rob, just around working capital, how do we think about that or cadence wise for this year?

Yes. We're going to continue to focus on working capital. I think what you're going to see is we're going to continue to make some headway on our working capital balance this year. We expect our net earnings clearly to be [indiscernible] minus all these adjustments, So once again, the team has just done a phenomenal job. And this is also whether it's supply chain, working with our vendors and our customers, right, everyone's kind of chipping in. To continue to work at it because I think in particular as we integrate Heimbach, we're finding opportunities of machine clothing as well to take down the working capital balances.

I appreciate the color. I'll jump back in queue. Thanks guys. Thank you, Peter.

And our next question comes from the line of Michael Ciarmoli with Truist Securities. Your line is open.

Hey, good morning, guys. Thanks for taking the questions.

I guess just back to LEAP, thinking about where planned production is of LEAP volumes this I guess up 15% to 20%. I think I don't know if the math is exactly accurate, maybe you guys are down 10% to 12%. So presumably all destocking and is that how we should think about the inventory in the channel?

There is some destocking across The whole channel Albany I would say that's for TAF, Michael? And then we're ready for for what happens in the second half depending on how the recovery and the ability of Airbus frankly to grow. Remember Airbus is a major part of the LEAP program. And so we're monitoring that as well.

Yes. And Mike, just I mean, I'm sorry, right? And last year, both Safran and GE had started the year in 'twenty four with 20% to 25% growth expectations for fleet deliveries And that ratcheted down to where we ended, I think down probably 10% or 15%. So when Gennaro mentions that we're being a little bit conservative, that is really what we're trying to do is not get too far ahead and partnering with Safran, right? They see the same thing. So and we have the ability to flex.

Got it. That makes sense. And then just on the new comp structure, Rob, maybe. I guess Two questions. I mean, I think you said total shareholder return was one of the bogey's there. But if I think about kind of the EA EACs you've taken it, I don't know if if you can share if your AEC margins have been sort of structurally pressured here? And why are EBITDA margins? I guess I interpret it as absolute EBITDA dollars being part of the bogey, but is it more challenging to think about EBIT margins on a go forward basis given some of the execution and even maybe other new start programs that we might not be aware of?

Yes.

So if I think about your question, the The long term comp, right, as Gunnar mentioned, has an adjusted EBITDA component to it. And that level is set in conjunction with work with the Board on our long term plan based on which is going to reflect kind of the go forward expectation for the businesses. And as you can appreciate, the plan is definitely success oriented. I mean, it's definitely a target that is not easy to achieve, right? The Board wants us on our on our front foot.

And that's and then the shareholder return, I mean, that is something that's new. I mean, I would say we did a lot of work with our outside compensation consultant to design a structure that should drive long term shoulder creation, especially with the addition of ROIC. That is something in terms of capital efficiency on the balance sheet that we are very focused on as we deploy capital. So that is something that we feel really good about where that long term comp structure is headed. And we really believe that diversifying the metrics will result in long term shareholder value creation. [indiscernible] [indiscernible] the EBITDA is dollar and we have it in both the short term and the long term. So returns in the short term and long term remains important. To us. We added the cash in the short term because we wanted to focus there on working capital making sure that we converted our earnings to cash, so that we could use it.

For all the other things that we're trying to do. But in the long term, the relative shareholder return is an important [indiscernible] for us.

As well as the return on invested capital. So I think it it is a much healthier setup for the long term incentive But we're both interested in how we spend our capital as well as the earnings that we make.

Got it. Fair. All right. Thanks guys. I'll jump back in the queue. Thanks, Mike.

And we have a question coming from the line of Jordan Albany with Bank of America. Your line is open.

Hey, good morning.

Could you guys talk through how you're thinking about tariff risk, an increased pressure just with trade for China? And is it contemplated in your guide And if it is, to what degree? Yes. I mean, it I would say that uncertainty is high and we're making NA reactions to the uncertainty right now. We're doing a lot of analysis [indiscernible] once a decision is made The impact with China is [indiscernible] [indiscernible] We've done all of the staff, the hard staff work to be ready for this. Where it will end up I cannot predict, Jordan.

No, that's fair. I just wanted to see how you guys are thinking about it.

And then two, on the new defense programs that you guys have coming up that you're ramping on are you concerned at all with the new administration's focus on driving costs down you'll see that pressure from the primes on those contracts?

Yes, I think there might be some pressure on certain programs which programs will be targeted is uncertain. Our position on those targets or on our programs are because we do have an increased focus on long term contracts. I feel fairly certain about our stability in the long term there. The volumes could change. And I would say they could change in both directions depending on which program you're on. So we're watching that diligently. And again, there's a lot of uncertainty Nobody likes the uncertainty, but we are working through scenarios where we think that there might be exposure, right?

So this is is taking a lot of our time, Jordan.

Got it. Thank you.

Thank you.

That concludes the question and answer session. I would like to turn the call back over to Gunnar Cleveland for closing remarks.

Thank you. And thank you everyone for joining us on the call today. We appreciate your continued interest in Albany International. Thank you and have a good day.

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. You [indiscernible]