American Homes 4 Rent Price & Performance (AMH)

All statements other than statements of historical fact included in this conference call are forward looking statements that are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected in these statements. These risks and other factors that could adversely affect our business and future results are described in our press releases and in our filings with the SEC. All forward looking statements speak only as of today February 21, 2025. We assume no obligation to update or revise any forward looking statements whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law. A reconciliation of GAAP to non GAAP financial measures is included in our earnings press release and supplemental information package. As a note, our operating and financial results, including GAAP and non GAAP measures, are fully detailed in our earnings release and supplemental information package. You can find these documents as well as SEC reports in the audio webcast replay of this conference call on our website at www.amh.com. With that, I will turn the call over to our CEO, Thank you, Nick.

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. Before we begin, like to take a moment to express our sympathies Not only is the LA community near and dear to our hearts, but it is also home to many of our team members, one of our corporate offices We were fortunate that there was no impact to our operations. But it's been heartbreaking to see the destruction. Today marks my first earnings call since taking over as CEO. Our consistent outperformance over the past few years within the residential sector is a direct result of our relentless focus which will not change, Over the past decade, have strategically created a portfolio of high quality assets in superior locations. On the growth front, we have a vertically integrated development program that allows us to accretively invest in all cycles. While remaining patient and discipline across our other growth channels. And we will lean into innovation across our entire platform, introducing industry leading technology solutions that allow us to continue to efficiently deliver the best resident experience in our industry. Our ability to remain focused has driven outstanding results and we continue to be well positioned for the future. From a macro perspective, the single family residential sector continues to benefit from strong long term fundamentals.

Including limited supply of quality housing, a wide affordability gap and outsized population growth in our markets. And with our disciplined and focused approach, we expect to extend our track record of consistent outperformance within the space. The future at AMH is bright. And I alongside our outstanding leadership team, I'm excited to lead this great company through the next chapter of its journey. AMH had a strong finish to 2024 Capping off another year of outperformance was 6.6% growth in core FFO per share, Consistent with the year end strategy we outlined on our last call, the teams optimized revenue and strengthened occupancy during the fourth quarter. While we typically do not focus on sequential month changes in occupancy and rate, The chronology over the past quarter is important. Notably, we picked up occupancy the final two months of the quarter which is atypical for the end of the year, We also hit an inflection point for rate in November, hitting us confidence in our trajectory heading into the New Year. This translated into 4% same home core revenue growth which was in line with our expectations for the quarter, and contributed to our full year core revenue growth of 5%.

Turning to expenses, core operating expense growth was 4.8% for the fourth quarter and 4.3% for the full year. Reflecting excellent execution by the teams who were able to control the controllables throughout the year. In addition, we received better than expected news on the property tax front that Chris will address in a moment All of this resulted in 3.65.3% same home core NOI growth for the fourth quarter and full year respectively Turning to 2025, the leasing momentum from the fourth quarter has continued through January and into February. Giving us confidence for the year ahead.

For the month of January, same home average occupied days was 95.6% New lease spreads accelerated to 0.7%. While renewal growth held steady at 4.5%. This resulted in blended rate growth of 3.3% for the month. Looking ahead to the top line in 2025, our same home core revenue growth outlook is 3.5% at the midpoint on a full year basis. On the occupancy front, we expect the usual seasonal curve to play out over the course of this year. With full year average occupancy landing in the low 96% area. Which is similar to last year and what we consider the normalized long term run rate for our portfolio.

On the rate front, we expect average monthly realized rent growth in the high 3% area which breaks down to approximately a 2% earn from last year's leasing activity and the partial year of contribution from 2025 blended spreads expected to be in the high 3% area.

Lastly, bad debt is forecasted to be in the low 1% area in 2025. Which will be a modest offset to the other revenue building blocks. Chris will cover the remainder of guidance in a moment. On the investment front, development continues to be our primary growth channel. Since launching our internally managed development program in 2017, we have built over 12,000 homes in 200 communities. Adding much needed supply to the national housing spot. We are proud to be part of the solution addressing the nation's shortage of quality housing, Similar to 2024, we plan to deliver approximately 2,300 homes in the current year. As rent growth accelerates in the spring leasing season, we expect initial yields to gradually improve averaging in the mid-five percent area on a full year basis.

This is similar to the going in yields of our 2024 deliveries which landed a touch below our most recent program expectations. Our newly built homes remain the highest and best use of our internally generated and recycled capital. A testament to their superior quality location and long term return profiles. Outside of development, our expectations do not include any material traditional or national builder acquisition this year. Because of the current pricing and cost of capital environments. We will stay true to our buybacks and remain patient on the growth side.

Pursuing incremental opportunities only when they make sense. And when they do arise, as we demonstrated with our portfolio acquisition of nearly 1,700 homes this We have the experience and infrastructure to quickly integrate a large number of homes onto our platform. Finally, we will continue to lean into our disposition program as properties become unencumbered through the refinancings of our remaining securitizations, This will allow us to continue to optimize our portfolio while consistently recycling capital at attractive economics. Before I hand the call off, I'd like to highlight some of our recent organizational changes. With our CEO transition complete, I want to congratulate Dave once again on his retirement as he concludes his advisory period, and finishes out his final term on our Board of Trustees. We are grateful for his leadership and wish him all the best. Additionally, I am proud to announce the promotions of three key members of our leadership team. First, Cerebral Lowell has been elevated to Chief Administrative Officer in addition to her current role as Chief Legal Officer, and remains a named Executive Officer of AMH alongside Chris and me.

Second, Zach Johnson has been promoted to EVP Chief Investment Officer. And third, Lincoln Palmer, who will be joining us today for the Q and A portion of the call, has been promoted to EVP Chief Operating Officer.

All three have been integral members of our team for more than a decade With this leadership team firmly in place, and our relentless focus on execution, we're well positioned to extend our track record of outperformance. Now I'll turn it over to Chris. Thanks, Brian. Good morning, everyone.

I'll cover three areas in my comments today. First, a brief review of our year end results Second, an update on our balance sheet and recent capital markets activity and third, I'll close with an overview our 2025 guidance, Beginning with our operating results, closed out 2024 with another strong performance focused on the core of our business, generating net income attributable Per share in unit representing 5.7% year over year growth. For the full year, we generated net income attributable to common shareholders of $398,500,000.0 or $1.08 per diluted share $1.77 of core FFO per share in unit representing 6.6% year over year growth. Once again leading residential sector, From an investment standpoint, during the quarter, we delivered four sixty three total homes from our AMH development program, This was comprised of three thirty nine homes and 124 homes delivered to our wholly owned joint venture portfolios of 2,356 AMH development properties which was modestly better in the midpoint of our expectations. Outside of development, as previously mentioned, acquired a nearly 1,700 home portfolio during the fourth quarter for approximately $480,000,000 Integration of the portfolio is on track as we continue to bring performance of the homes up to AIMH standards over the course, of 2025.

On the dispositions front, we saw another quarter of robust activity. Selling five eighty seven properties generating roughly $180,000,000 of net proceeds. For the full year, we sold seventeen oh five properties for total net proceeds of approximately $530,000,000 at an average disposition cap rate in the mid-three percent generating a highly attractive source of recycled capital for reinvestment into our development program, which is a meaningful differentiator in today's cost of capital environment. Next, I'd like to turn to our balance sheet recent capital activity. At the end of the year, our net debt including preferred shares to adjusted EBITDA was 5.4 times. $1,250,000,000 revolving credit facility was fully undrawn we had approximately $200,000,000 of cash available on the balance sheet which included a portion of the proceeds from our well timed unsecured bond offering during the month of December, transaction was meaningfully oversubscribed effectively hedged to a 5.08% interest rate and raised total gross proceeds of $500,000,000 that has or will be used to fund a portion of our 2024 portfolio acquisition and 2025 capital needs. Additionally, we also took down approximately 3,000,000 Ford ETM shares generating net proceeds of approximately $110,000,000 As a reminder, these shares were previously sold under our ATM program an average sales price of $37.03 per share.

Next, I'd like to share an overview of our initial 2025 guidance. For full year 2025, expect core FFO per share in unit of 1.8 to $1.86 which at the midpoint represents year over year growth of 3.4 And for the same home portfolio, at the midpoint, our expectations contemplate core revenues growth of 3.5% which Brian discussed a few minutes ago, Along with core property operating expense growth, of 4% driven by property tax growth in the mid-four percent area representing another year of moderation and mid-three percent growth on all other expenses driven by modestly negative insurance expense growth based on our successful renewal campaign another year of tight expense controls. Putting together same home portfolio revenue and expense growth expectations, We expect 25 same home core NOI growth of 3.25% [indiscernible] we expect another year of consistent and predictable growth our development program. Similar to last year, in 2025, we expect to deploy between $1,000,000,000 and $1,200,000,000 of total capital adding between 204,400 new to constructed Amish development properties to our wholly owned and joint venture portfolios. Specifically, for our wholly owned portfolio, at the midpoint of our ranges, we expect to invest approximately $900,000,000 of AMH capital, consisting of $750,000,000 or 1,900 homes added from our development program along with $150,000,000 of combined investment into our wholly owned development pipeline, provide a share of JV investments in property enhancing CapEx programs.

Importantly, our AIMED growth capital requirements for the upcoming year remain strategically sized to require minimal If any, newly raised external capital For 2025, we expect to fund our $900,000,000 of AIMAGE capital primarily through a combination of retained cash flow approximately $200,000,000 of cash on the balance sheet and $400,000,000 to $500,000,000 recycled capital from dispositions. [indiscernible] Lastly, in addition to our growth programs, we have our final two securitization loans that we expect to refinance in 2025 prior to their anticipated repayment dates. A reminder, these securitizations have a combined principal balance of approximately $925,000,000 with an average interest rate of 4.24%. In terms of timing, we've already delivered our notice [indiscernible] 2015 SFR1 securitization in April, and will likely target repayment of the 2015 SR2 securitization during the second half of the year. Following repayment of our 2015 securitizations, that we expect to refinance into the unsecured bond market over the course of 2025, our balance sheet will become 100% unencumbered, This represents an important credit rating milestone has been nearly ten years the making. And before we open the call to your questions, I wanted to close with a few wrap up thoughts. As Brian highlighted at the start, our track record of residential sector outperformance is no accident.

It's the result of a disciplined strategic approach all aspects of AMH. Relentless focus on the core of our business continues was on full display [indiscernible] As a couple of highlights, in 2024, we expanded same home NOI margins and produced best in class residential sector NOI growth. Continuing to accretively grow our portfolio through our unique AMH development program, and value unlocking fourth quarter portfolio acquisition. Ultimately translating into full year core FFO growth per share of 6.6%. That once again led the residential sector and outperformed our expectations by over 200 basis points. As we head into 2025, I'm confident that our disciplined strategy and relentless focus on the core of our business will continue to set us apart and position us for another year of image value creation. And with that, we'll open the call to your questions. Operator?

So that we may address questions from as many participants as possible, we ask that you limit yourself to one question and one follow-up.

Those questions will be addressed. Thank you. Our first question comes from the line of Juan Sanbria with BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed.

Hi, good morning. Just hoping you could talk a little bit about Your expected development yield in 25%, I think you said in the mid-5s.

And what if anything is assumed in that with regards to tariffs particularly around lumber from Canada knowing that that's a material input And just kind of your thoughts about how you can navigate that or how are your trying to hedge that risk if at all? Hi, Long. Good morning. It's Brian.

Yes, regarding our yields and 2025, our expectations as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, is that the yields will kind of accelerate as we get into the spring leasing season. The end of Q4 or the end of 'twenty four and the beginning of 'twenty five, you'll see a little bit of the effect of some of the pricing changes we made at the transition from Q3 to Q4 of last year. Be a little bit of a carryover into Q1. And then as the year progresses, we expect those rents to really pick back up and accelerate into the back half of the year. One small thing to note, it's important that we manage inventory in these development communities well because going to be delivering new houses in many of these communities. We need to make sure that the timing and strategy of release is optimizing revenue as well. And then on the tariff and immigration front, we're all following what's happening very closely. There's a lot of different things changing kind of on a daily basis. We are recognizing that labor and material increases could be a headwind There are a lot of different things that play here.

There's some good things that we have as one of the nation's 40 homebuilders, our ability to monitor and respond to this changing environment. Notably though, on our development deliveries for 2025, over half of our planned new home deliveries are already baked in terms of cost on vertical and contracted labor. So we're in a good position entering the first half of the year. But we're paying close attention to how that kind of evolves as we get through the first quarter.

Great. And then just as a follow-up, Hoping you could talk about kind of the latest views on supply. Is Is that changing in terms of markets you're watching and And your thoughts on we've obviously seen a pickup in homes for sale that aren't necessarily clearing that are kind of [indiscernible] And how that's impacting Your pricing power in the traditional SFR market with maybe the shadow supply Yes.

Supply with our asset type a little bit trickier than maybe it would be on the multifamily side.

We track it from a number of different external data sources and we have some very strong internal data too just in projections of expirations and kind of expectations for how markets are going to react. Supply for our portfolio, it's one of the benefits of having diversified portfolio footprint. Many, many markets, some of which haven't really seen much supply pressure over the past few years at all. The Midwest comes to mind, Carolinas as well.

And then the areas that have been impacted, we've been talking about them for for many quarters now, thinking about the Southwest We haven't seen a major change of late, but we are seeing some really nice signs of life a couple of markets. Specifically in Phoenix, We're getting a really nice occupancy pickup as we get into the new year off of Q4. So there may be a little bit of an easing of supply pressures there, but again, it's hard to tell exactly, but we are seeing some favorable signs. The same thing is true to some of the pressures that talked about in the Tampa area. Which I think is one of the markets where you've seen a lot of for sale product pressure too.

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of American Wolf Citibank.

Hey, thanks. You look at your occupancy guidance, it suggests that occupancy rise is about 50 to 60 bps on average from current levels. Are you seeing any sort of forward indicators in terms of leasing that this increase should happen over the next couple of months? And should we expect blended rate growth to be a little bit more muted over this time frame just as you build that occupancy?

Hi, Eric. It's Brian. We're seeing some really good signs as we entered the year. If you remember to our last call, we were very strategic about our desire to get really fully occupied to prepare for 2025. It's [indiscernible] put out in Q4 where we picked up occupancy in both November and December traditionally kind of slower times of the year for us.

That success, that level of demand and leasing activity continued into Q1.

Our January new lease rates accelerated a little bit. As we get into February, we're expecting a pickup in occupancy [indiscernible] And we're looking for really good momentum as we get through Q1 into Q2, which is kind of the prime time season for us. As we're going through that, if you want to think about our expectations for new lease rate growth in Q1, They are moving in the right direction. We have great trajectory. Moving off of some of the inflection point in November. Into flat in December, positive into January, we're expecting similar gains into February and March. So it's definitely moving in the right direction. And we're well positioned for strength in the spring leasing season.

Got it. That's helpful. And then I don't know if you mentioned in the prepared remarks, sorry if I missed it, but you mentioned the high-3s blended rent growth expectation. You kind of break that out between new and renewals and if you can sort of what's underpinning the new lease project projection? Is it based on third party forecast from John Burns Consulting? Is it based on the buildup from your markets. What do you are you basing that new lease projection Yes, sure. So to break it out for our expectations for '25 we're looking at new leases for the year in the 3% area, and renewals in the 4% area.

Specifically on the new lease side, there are a couple of components there. We have probably similar loss to lease this quarter as we had last quarter in the low single digits. And then market rent growth across our markets somewhere in the 3% range for the year. And that kind of builds up our expectation.

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Jamie Feldman with Wells Fargo.

Great. Thank you. I guess maybe to put a finer point on the rent growth expectations.

Can you talk about like maybe your weakest markets and your best markets?

If you would answer that same question, what you think the delta could be? Terms of how strong or how we rent growth could be and and maybe benchmark or maybe just like highlight which of those markets you're talking about? Yes. Thanks, Jamie. This is Brian. We have a pretty wide range If you go back to the inflection point in November, we had rent growth as high as in excess of 6% in some markets. So there is variability across the portfolio. As we get into next year, I think we're looking for continued success in some of the markets that posted great results last year, notably the Midwest and and the Carolinas. We've got really good movement in a couple of other maybe smaller markets. You can see positive rent growth in Savannah and Charleston. So we're expecting a continuation of that. And then in terms of other building blocks and expectations for the year, like I said, we're seeing great signs of life in Phoenix. Of the other markets that had a little bit of a pullback as we exited 2024.

Okay. Thank you for that. And then I know you didn't include acquisitions in guidance, I guess it's a two parter, if you as you unencumber assets, and you have more liquidity to put capital to work, think that will be a factor that drives you to do more acquisitions? And maybe if you could just cover a little bit more why not have more acquisitions in your guidance and are there just not portfolios out there? Or do you think they might come to market and you're just not ready to include getting any of those done? Yes. Hey, Jamie, it's Chris here. Look, like we've talked about all the time, we absolutely keep our finger on the pulse of everything that's going on from an acquisition market perspective. And look, I think about it in two different categories. We can think about in terms of one off acquisitions or portfolios. In terms of one offs, again, we keep our finger the pulse there. I would say we're kind of a ways off in terms of where we would find that market attractive to be transacting at. But again, we we watch it closely just to give you a little bit of color in terms of what we're seeing.

This past quarter through our network of national builder relationships, we screened upwards of 15,000 newly constructed 10% disciplined AMH buy box in terms of location, quality and then importantly single family detached product type. And for even those that did hit our buy box, average yield on those was somewhere in the mid-4s, which I think really underscore [indiscernible] and its ability to consistently and predictably provide pathway to growth. And then in terms of the second piece, portfolios, again, no different than what we've talked about in the past. We are optimistic on the number of assembled portfolio And what we especially like about those types of opportunities is our potential to unlock value in them, bringing them up to our standards on the AMH platform just like we're doing currently with the portfolio we acquired in the fourth quarter. But at the same time, we recognize that there's a variety of quality levels in many of those portfolios out there. And again, we are unwavering on our commitment to the MH Buy Box.

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Steve Sakwa with Evercore ISI. Please proceed.

Yes, thanks. I guess, on the bad debt, you guys aren't really looking for much of an improvement I'm just curious kind of why and are there certain markets that are holding you up from seeing better improvement on that figure? Yes, sure. Good morning, Steve. Chris here. I can start and then maybe Lincoln can fill in some color at the market level. But look, I would say overall, the collection narrative is largely unchanged. Right? You heard it in prepared remarks and in the release, our expectation is that that debt continues to run slightly elevated in the low 1s over the course of '25, kind of similar to how we are exiting '24. Which is largely being driven still by a few remaining municipalities and court system that like we talked about last year continue to process at slower than tip And so look, I would say taking a step back, we would love to see this be an area of upside against our guide, but recognizing that some of the processing timelines are out of our control, I think we're going to hold our view kind of similar to where we're running currently until we start to see some of that timing actually move.

In terms of some color on the ground, I'm sure Lincoln can share a few additional details.

Yes, Steve. From a market perspective, the vast majority of our markets are operating from a bad debt perspective. Very close to our long term expectations for the sub-one percent run rate. Most of it that we're seeing is from a few select markets. Atlanta is the prime example and even in Atlanta, it really boils down to a few [indiscernible] So as we get those counties moving we're working with the local jurisdictions the best we can to get those timeframes shortened. And as we have success in doing that, we'll see some improvements in the bad debt. But what you're seeing in the guide is us reflecting what we can see in the market.

Okay. Thanks. And then maybe just coming back to some of the questions, Brian, on development. Whether it's the tariffs or just incremental supply from other builders, guess the 5.5 I guess maybe seems a little bit like a low return to get especially where bond yields are today and certainly where your stock is trading. So like how do you think about that overall return? Is it sort of against the marginal cost of capital or is it the fact that you can sell assets in the sub-four cap rate that's giving you confidence to keep building at 5.5? Yes. Thanks, Steve. There's a lot of different things we want to address on that question. But I want to start with the 5.5% yield and make sure everybody recognize that's the going in yield. That's a going in yield that doesn't include special incentives, leasing incentives and so forth. It's It's what we're getting on houses as they're being delivered into active construction projects in many cases. Are not stabilized yields. We've seen really nice movement as the community start to stabilize and homes progress. In age and the communities mature a little bit. The 5.5 is going in from a long term perspective, We really like what we're seeing from the development the AMH development homes.

And it's a great return, it's a great long term program. And the numbers that we cited today are holding ourselves to a very high standard at the going in level. And then Steve, Chris here. I think implied in your question is bringing up a really good reminder around the importance of how we have strategically sized the development program. I know we've talked about this a lot, but we've intentionally sized our pipeline such that any year's development deliveries and spend is fundable without the need for built in equity. Right? This year is a perfect example or any of the past years, right, where the primary funding building blocks of the development program is retained cash from the portfolio from the business, some level of recycled capital from the disposition program, which today we know is screening very attractively and then modest levels of incremental debt as debt capacity grows on the balance sheet. So again, sized, strategically to consume minimal amounts of external capital and then importantly no equity needs.

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of [indiscernible] of America American.

Great. Thank you. A follow-up to that conversation, I guess, two parts would be first, Brian, I don't think you said stabilized yield. And then second, maybe Chris, could you bring in your comments from your opening remarks around expanding your margins assume there's some also benefit there. On new development. Yes. Thanks, Jeff. I didn't give a comment on exact stabilized yields. We're still looking forward to getting little bit more homes into the same home pool as an example before we start to cite those separately. But what I can tell you is that they're moving in the right direction. The expense controls are at least as good as what we thought they would be.

The leasing and uptake has been fantastic. And I want to remind everyone too, these are extremely high quality homes purpose built for rentals, they're durable, They're highly upgraded off of a normal starter home. They're in great locations. This is exactly the type of home that we want to be owning and managing and you cannot buy these houses at these prices anywhere in the market. So we're really, really happy with the long term prospects of these Yes. And Jeff, Chris here. I appreciate the question on the NOI margin [indiscernible] and a really important part of our view going forward that we talk a lot about and our view of the opportunity for margin expansion over time. And we see it coming from a couple of different areas. The development program absolutely comes to mind in terms of the more efficient and higher NOI margins coming out of that product. And that will have more and more benefit over time as we deliver more. Those properties stabilize and they can ultimately age their way into the same home pool. That's category number one. Category number two really comes back to a lot of the really smart and strategic decisions we're making from an asset management perspective and ultimately translating into what is fueling our disposition program.

One of the great parts of our asset class is its granularity and our ability to fine tune at the unit level which is very powerful over time and that we see being the last piece to come back to and we saw this very clearly in 2024 is the opportunity to continue to move margins higher over time at the core of the business out of the core of the portfolio. And the setup there as we think about it, like we've talked about many times before, is the opportunity to drive inflationary plus growth from a top line perspective. Given fundamental tailwinds of the asset class. And our operating platform and then ultimately holding the line on expenses as tight as we I think we did a fantastic job on that in 2024. Translating into 20 basis points of margin expansion in 2024.

Thank you. And then my second question, my follow-up I just wanted to confirm in terms of opportunities and acquisitions, are you starting to get more incoming from homebuilders or it's too early really to see that I'm just pointing to the softening home sales. Thank you.

Yes. Thanks, Jeff. Chris here again. I would say a little bit too early, but at the same time, I mentioned this a couple of minutes ago on one of the other questions. We have very well established robust relationships with all of the large builders out there.

And this quarter, I know I just mentioned this, but this quarter as an example, we looked at and screened over 15 I think it's a little bit early. We're watching it closely. But again, I would underscore the fact that we have very mature relationships with all the builders. We've been very active with them in the past. And we will continue to watch it really, really closely.

Thank you. Our next question comes from Angel Santeust Please proceed.

Thank you. Good morning out there.

Wanted to follow-up a little bit on your renewals guide. I think you said it was 4% Seems a little conservative given where you've been in recent years, high 6s in '23, mid-5s for 'twenty four. So I'm curious if you're seeing any signs of perhaps pricing fatigue, uptick in turnover Just trying to understand how your pricing power could be evolving here. Thanks. Hi, Hetaud. It's Brian. Yes, we're really pleased with the results that we've had over the past couple of years. As you cited, And our retentions very strong. All the signs that we're seeing coming into the year are positive. You look at our pickup and retention last year, The programs are working. Our Residence three sixty investment which included a significant investment in the communication platform [indiscernible] renewals and kind of the lease administration piece. I think it's paying some dividends. We're having fantastic customer review scores that are contributing to to kind of sustained high levels of retention And then you look at the results that we posted and you mentioned on prepared remarks of 4.5% renewal rate growth in January, We're expecting that to continue through Q1. And then typically see a slight moderation into Q2 for renewals as that's the really high activity period.

But we felt that 4% area is a good investment for this year all things considered with market rent growth and loss to lease.

Got it. Fair enough. Thanks, Hindel.

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Rich Hightower Barclays.

Good morning out there guys and congrats to Dave if he is on the line with us.

I just want to dig into property tax taxes for a minute and obviously you're getting some relief kind of relative to years past and just help us understand the key drivers there. Is some of it based on timing around revalves in certain states? Then I guess maybe on the flip side, have you given any thought to the impact given the possible likelihood, I guess, that state budgets and municipal budgets could be affected negatively going forward if federal reimbursements and contributions to those budgets Falls kind of along the lines of things we've been reading. Yes, sure.

Thanks, Rich. Chris here.

Look, property taxes overall I think we were really pleased with how things trended over the course of the year, largely in the direction that we were expecting. And we received some nice final year end information. Towards the end of the year. Just to put a finer point on that, some of that information that we received towards the end of the year was notably out a few out of a few of our larger states including Texas, Florida and Georgia. Where final values and then a little bit on the rate side as well landed a touch better than our previous expectations. Which is really what drove the full year down in to the 5% area or so. That like I said, we are shared in prepared remarks, we expect that to moderate a touch further into 2025 and that's largely coming from the value side of the equation, which is landing back into what is our long term run rate of 4% to 5% for property tax. Growth, right? So we're kind of back to long term run rate at this point. And then to your point in terms of budgetary pressures, definitely something that we're watching very closely.

With that said, we see that the larger driver here being on the value side. But nonetheless, it's something that we watch closely. In particular, we're watching it in texts. Like we've talked about plenty of times, the Texas property tax [indiscernible] And we know that a new property tax relief will need to be repassed for '25 and 2026. Which as an update is completely supported by both Governor Abbott and then State Congress, really is a top priority for a portion of the state's budget surplus. Which I think latest estimates are like $24,000,000,000 And so it's things like that that we're watching very closely. But all things considered, we feel good about the setup going into 2025. And the fact that we're expecting to see additional moderation back into the 4% to 5% area.

Okay, great color. And just maybe a quick follow-up. Don't think we've spent a lot of time on the call talking about non rental revenue other income opportunities for the year. Maybe just run through what you guys are seeing on that front? Thanks. Sure.

Yes, modest contribution from a same home perspective I think in 2024 contributed 8% to 10 basis points of same store revenue contribution, something like that. We'd expect modest growth in that line item into 2025 as well. Maybe a touch below '24 or so. Think of it kind of growing in line, the broader rent growth Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of John Pawlowski with Green Street.

Please proceed.

Good morning. Brian, I want to go back to the conversation about how yields on the development basically shift beyond year one? I know stabilization in the most recent ventures of deliveries is still an unknown, but you've been at it for about eight years built to rent. So you should have I would think a decent sample size of earlier vintages of homes. And can you just give us a sense how different like a year three yield is versus a initial yield on the earliest vintages of homes? Yes. Thanks, John. Just in terms of just getting everything calibrated right, the early years were kind of small test phases. So we've been running full full speed for less than that entire time period. But I talked earlier in the call about what the yields look like going in. And then as these these communities stabilize, construction traffic exits they're fully leased as they turn Like I said before, we're having fantastic experience on the expense side. A little bit better than we even thought in terms of cost of turn and speed to turn.

Occupancy and rates have held consistent with expectations we've talked about some of the increases we've seen in time. As these as these projects stabilize, those yields are migrating out of the fives and into the ficks. And performing very well from a long term perspective.

Okay. Does that into the six digit type trajectory account for stabilized expense load in these homes that just may have not turned or seen property tax resets?

Yeah, it does. It does. I'm talking about ones that have matured enough to experience both of those things. Yes. John, by year three or so property taxes will have settled in and stabilized up and you do have turn activity going on by year three.

Our next question comes from the line of Adam Cramer with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed.

Great. Thanks for the time guys.

Just wanted to ask about your the Midwest exposure. I think this has kind of been a source of strength. For the market And I think it's expected to be going forward as well. So if you think about some of these Midwest West markets, if you could maybe attribute the strength and I don't know if it's kind of on the existing home sales side, on on the lack of new homes available, maybe it's kind of solid COVID catch up play in some ways. Maybe just talk about the Midwest and kind of what are some of the drivers of strength in these markets? Yes. Thanks, Adam. This is Brian.

Probably the easiest way to look at at the performance of our Midwest portfolio is to talk about really the quality of assets and the type of single family detached Midwest is characterized by large yards and we were really particular about what locations we wanted to invest in. We've seen a really nice pickup over the past few years with migration into these markets for high quality of life moves. And the reality is there's just not a lot of supply of equal level quality product. There may be supply on the outskirts of lower levels, apartments and so forth. But terms of the type of home, the quality of home that we have, We're unique in that aspect. One other thing to note too, with the portfolio transaction that we closed at the end of last year, we were really pleased that we were able to add some homes to those high quality Midwest markets. Really it's been kind of difficult to grow.

Great. Thanks for that, Brian. And maybe just kind of a more general one looking ahead to 2025. I'm wondering you could maybe kind of frame the year, I think you kind of gave the blended rent growth numbers, the new and renewal, the occupancy expectations. But if you were to take a step back, think about this year, relative to maybe pre COVID years and I know limited history in the public markets there, but would you kind of categorize this year as a normal year normal seasonality? And what can kind of drive this year due progress differently than maybe a normal year? Yes. Thanks, Amit. In terms of normal, probably the easiest way to look at it our rent growth expectations aren't that dissimilar to what we saw pre COVID and that's really a snapshot of just the year. That's not really our long term perspective necessarily. But what is different is our expectation for occupancy. If you remember kind of pre COVID levels, we're always talking about the 95% area. And there's just been a number of different changes in our industry and with our platform. Have given us confidence that 95% expectation has been moved to 96 That's really the main difference.

In terms of how the rate trajectory plays out for the year, we're going to do the best that we can. We're well positioned on the new lease side. But the estimates that we have right now are a good fit for expectations of market rent growth and loss to lease as I mentioned earlier.

Yes.

And then Adam, Chris here. I would just add since you kind of asked the question also in terms of kind of the broader context of outlook, overall. Again, like Brian just said, we've been saying since start here, we are in a great spot and in a position of strength And because of that, we feel really good about our outlook and the guide for the year ahead, especially relative to the broader residential landscape. And look at the end of the day, it is our objective and we'd love to be able to deliver some nice updates against the guide over the course of the year. And as I think about the shape of those opportunities, I would say those opportunities are very similar to the focus areas from 2024. We talked about this a minute ago, but bad debt comes to mind. We'd love to be able to see some improvement there that would represent area or opportunity for upside. And then our objective, no different than any other year, but very similar to '24 in particular, is to capture as much upswing as possible on the front end of the leasing curve and then deliver the tightest expense controls that we can Again, all of which the team did a fantastic job in 2024.

And that's our objective again in 2025.

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Julian Foulin with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed.

Thank you for taking my question. I guess on the demand front, can you sort of walk us through what you're seeing in in your internal metrics? I guess how is engagement trending versus maybe a year ago or two years ago? Our sort of household incomes of new incoming tenants looking, anything you can help sort of frame on the demand side? Thanks, Julian. This is Lincoln. [indiscernible] stated income is running north of $150,000 still income to rent ratios in the 5.5 times. So we're really happy with our resident base. The encouraging thing coming off of what Chris and Brian have already talked about out of our kind of stabilization of occupancy and fourth quarter is that we're seeing great trajectory into January and February. Nearly all of our markets are trending trending very well from both the occupancy and rate per perspective, but even more encouraging is to see some of the leading indicators One of those is foot traffic in our homes. So we saw kind of a 30% pickup from the end of fourth quarter into January. Of people visiting our homes and that has to do with the return of activity that we've already talked about.

And then year over year that activity is about 15% higher than it was last year. So it gives us a lot of leasing season.

Awesome. Thank you. That's very helpful.

And when we think about the new lease rate growth assumption for the year of 3%, it does seem to bake in quite a meaningful sequential improvement in new lease spreads versus where we are in January. I guess what's sort of giving you that confidence that we're going to see that that strong ramp, I guess, it does sort of seem a little bit more similar to pre COVID seasonality. Is there anything you're seeing so far in February that's sort of encouraging you? Yes. Thanks, Joe. This is Brian.

It really comes back to the demand momentum that Lincoln is talking about.

The fact that our portfolio is well positioned from an occupancy perspective, and also a testament to the quality type of asset and the location of our home. So we're in a really good place to be optimistic about continued rate growth and even occupancy pickup. As we migrate into the spring leasing season.

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Brad Heffern with RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed. Brad, are you on mute? You might [indiscernible] I we may have lost Brad. Expense for Chris, first put us on the bond timing. Can you just talk to what's in the current plans on paying down the securitizations Do you expect to issue unsecured concurrently or maybe say a bit more flexible utilizing the line balance and how that all rolls into interest expense expectations for the year and the math behind the $0.09 dilution from financing costs in the FFO bridge? Yes, fantastic. Daniel. So in terms of timing on the securitizations, as I mentioned in prepared remarks, our expectation is that the first of the two will be paid off in April. And then expectation is that the second will be paid off in the second half of the year. Anticipated repayment date falls in October, so I'd expect probably a little before that. Base case plan, is to refinance those into the unsecured bond market, which is what we have contemplated in guidance, right? It is that refinancing on an unsecured basis that will be bringing the balance sheet to 100% unencumbered, as I mentioned, very important milestone.

And contemplated in the guide is two unsecured bond executions Timing is a little bit difficult to pay. It will be dependent on market conditions. Best guess, we could assume one in the first half of the year, one in the half of the year. But again, it will depend on market conditions. Today, new issue cost of ten year unsecured depending on where treasuries are today, probably a touch over. Mid-5s or so. We've contemplated something in that area, actually a touch higher in the guide. But to your point, look, we've got great flexibility The credit facility is fully undrawn with total capacity of $1,250,000,000 which would provide additional flexibility for runway. If we weren't liking what we were seeing in the bond market. But base case assumption would be two bond market executions over the course of the year. And then to your point on, what's contemplated in the bridge, in guidance, another great question. Let me break it down into a couple of different pieces for you. The right building blocks is call it about 2 pennies just in terms of growth financing, that's the annualization of some of the ATM shares that we sold on a forward basis early in 2024 that we just took down.

And then a little bit of modest incremental debt over the course of 2024 annualizing into this year. So that's two out of the 9 pennies. And then you can think of about four of the 9 pennies being financing cost on the bulk portfolio we acquired in the fourth quarter and then that leaves $0.03 of refinancing headwind in the $0.09 And as you're thinking about the math on those $0.03 don't forget that that includes both kind of the the annualization of 24 refinancing activities and then partial year consideration for this year's refinancing activities. That's great. Thanks for the detail, Chris. And just a high level follow-up for Brian. I know you've been formally prepping and take the reins for maybe a year now, but any early insights you can share on the business steps you've taken or plan to take that's different or incremental to the company? Yes. Thanks, Daniel. The transition one went very well and I have a lot of gratitude to Dave for making that really smooth. We have a great strategy. We have a great business. There are a number of really strong things in our favor. I talked about some of them in my prepared remarks.

Just the industry itself has a lot of blue sky ahead. So I'm very energized and excited about going forward. In terms of major changes, We've got an excellent strategy to focus on executing and we're going to continue to focus on the core business, the resident, and continued innovation and optimization. So no major changes, just just very excited and optimistic about the future.

Thank you. Next question comes from the line of Linda Tsai Jefferies.

Please proceed.

Hi. Thanks for taking my question. Said over half of your costs are baked in for development at this point in the year. Is this typical or does it vary? And then what costs aren't baked in? [indiscernible] By baked I mean contracted. We have active construction occurring on half of our expected deliveries for 2025. Means we've already locked in pricing for some of the materials and labor and so forth. And I think that timeframe is typical. We start these communities. We contract with the subcontract actually being managed So when you think about kind of the timing and the effect, in the event that there are some constraints on the tariff side or the or the employment side, probably the show up more in the second half of the year.

Thanks. And then you also earlier highlighted [indiscernible] 2024 core FFO growth by over 200 bps Do you view the 200 bps as an achievable benchmark for this year? And then would be some of the risks to potentially achieving this outperformance Linda, Chris here, I kind of chuckle. Look, I would encourage you to look at the range that we've contemplated in the guide. Which is our range of expectations. Upper end at $1.86 is into the five or so. So I would frame it that way. And then as I mentioned a couple of minutes ago in terms of how we think about shape of the guide over the course of the year, Our objective no different than any year, is to be able to do our best to outperform and be able deliver nice updates against the guide again over the course of the year And I think '24 was a good example of great execution and great execution against our expectations as of the start of the year.

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Austin Wurschmidt Great. Thanks and good morning. Just going back to development for a minute. If you were to see construction costs increase faster than rents from here and kind of all else equal around cost of capital. I guess, what yield does development become less attractive where you can flexing the size of the development platform down and how easily and quickly can you dial that back? Hi, Austin. This is Brian.

Yes, I want to start by just reminding everyone, I talked about it earlier, but the yields that we've been citing are the going in. And our development product, our deliveries and the program itself just is fantastic over the long term from a long term perspective. If there was a case where there was the effect of the tariffs [indiscernible] some of the labor issues that people have been talking about We're talking about based on estimates from the National Association of Homebuilders, and other experts within the field You're talking about something in the neighborhood of 2% range on total home costs for us. This year. So we're not talking about a huge needle mover. And there are a bunch of other factors at play. It's difficult to predict. Maybe those changes in costs affect activity, maybe we're able to to shift some of our purchasing patterns and some of the materials we put in. To mitigate a little bit of that increase. But again, we're not expecting a mass a massive change there. And then from the perspective of whether the returns attractive, I can say unequivocally that they are from a long term perspective.

That's helpful. And then, if we started to see a pickup in the for sale market, I mean, how confident are you that you can sustain kind of the higher occupancy you've achieved following coming out of the pandemic and you can concerned at all that you start to get a pickup and move out for home purchases and that the impact that that could have on total revenue and even expense growth? Yes. The move out to buy is has always been and remains our largest reason from our residents who are moving out. Changes in the for sale market will have some effect The effect though might not be as dramatic as people think. Even when the cost of owning a home was the same as the cost to rent, We still fared very well from a retention perspective. And that gap is enormous right now, especially in the markets that are starting to have a lot of activity A slight drop in asking rates on houses doesn't do much to bridge affordability gap So we're in good shape going into this year. In the meantime, we're bolstering our offering and making sure that we're really focused on the resident experience, so that they see renting from us as being super convenient and difficult to replace that level of service on a home that you own yourself.

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Michael Goldflip, with UBS.

Please proceed. Good afternoon. Thanks a lot for taking my question. First question is on renewals. Are you seeing any tenant push back on renewals just kind of within the context of the of the 4% renewal rate? Thanks.

Thanks, Michael. We haven't seen any change. If you notice, we had really nice pickup in retention as we exited last year. We don't have a huge band of negotiations. Our pricing and the way that we offer renewals is very supportable. And the improvements in the communication have made that that process a lot easier for both us and the resident. We're not seeing a lot of pushback and we're not seeing any excess negotiation as we get into 2025.

Thanks, for that. That was a one. And just as a follow-up, have you seen any changes on the regulatory front We haven't. I mean, our performance historically really hasn't varied much with changes in the regulatory environment. We have very high quality operations, We're focused on being proactive and transparent with our residents and other stakeholders So we haven't seen anything. There's a lot of different things going on, but nothing that has affected us.

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Brad Heffner with RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed.

Hi, everybody. Can you hear me now?

We can. Good morning, Brad.

Okay. Sorry about that. I just have one, get a more past the top of the hour. I guess on days to reresident, are there any stats that you can give on that and how it's trended? The turnover number continues to move lower, but then occupancy also down in the fall. So it just seems like the homes have to be sitting on the market for longer for that to make sense.

Just trying to get a sense of the scale of that and if it's abnormally long versus maybe COVID levels, Yes. Thanks, Brad. You're identifying really exactly what we talked about with the slowdown in activity that we saw exiting the third quarter. And the difference in re tenetting the expansion in in Q4 was really just a catch up of that as we we picked up occupancy in November and December. Now we expect it to return to kind of consistent numbers and compress down as we get into the spring leasing season. Okay. Thank you. Thanks, Fred.

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of John Polis [indiscernible] Hey, thanks for taking the follow-up. Brian, one question for you on corporate governance. I think the board the size of the board is now 13. What's the right long term number of directors for AMH? And how long will it take to get there?

Hi, John. I think these are decisions that are to be considered by our board in its entirety and that is a focal point. In terms of the right number and the right composition. But those are types of things that they've been discussing at length. In the NCG committee as an example. Well, I'll let them decide exactly where that that comes out, but it is something that we're focused on and watching.

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Tayo Otsunawa Deutsche Bank. Please proceed. [indiscernible] Good afternoon, Brian. Again, congrats on the CEO role. Again, while you and Dave have been long term partners in the business, just curious if you're thinking about things any different [indiscernible] also very curious what kind of feedback you are getting from the Board now that you're officially a board member as well. Thanks, Dale. In terms of any changes in strategy, we're very fortunate at AMH to have a leadership team that's been together through the formative years of the company in excess of a decade we've been working in lockstep from the very beginning. Our strategy is sound. We've done some really good things that we're continuing to lean into. On the core of the business on the development program. In terms of major changes, we don't anticipate anything, just really continuing to do what we do very well. I would expect to see continued focus on innovation [indiscernible] resident and the resident experience, the center of everything that we do. And focus on our core businesses allowed us to have excellent performance of late and expectations for that to continue.

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Jesse Letterman with Zelman and Associates. Please proceed.

Thanks for taking the question. So you mentioned earlier that has been a number of different changes across the industry and in the AMH platform. Specifically that makes you confident the new norm for occupancy is more in the 96% range than 95%. Could you just talk a little bit more about what those changes have been both in the industry and specifically at AMH? Yes. Thanks, Jess. Starting with the industry, I think SFR as a whole people are starting to appreciate the value proposition of a home and a yard and a garage and extra space as opposed to historically multifamily was really the main choice for families that were going into their 30s and started to expand. So I think there's a general improvement in appreciation of that. People are looking for it when they move to new areas as an example. Then all of the institutional operators have been very focused on the resident experience, which wasn't a focus this specific industry prior to these changes over the past We're very excited about the product that we have. We think that the additions that we've made not only through the platform, but specifically on technology have allowed us to be faster and more efficient Just as an example, it's very easy and frictionless to lease a house from us today.

That is going to bolster occupancy. We've done a very good job of communicating with our residents and providing an excellent services platform is going to improve retention. And I could go down the list of each of the line items to show areas we've improved over time. All of these lead to our improved expectations a new kind of 96% level of occupancy.

Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I'd like to pass the call back over to Brian for closing remarks.

Yes. Thank you for your time today. I look forward to talking with you again soon. On the next quarter's call. Have a great day.

This concludes today's teleconference. This time, Thank you for your participation.