Banco BBVA Argentina S.A. Price & Performance (BBAR)

If you have a question, please write it down on the Q and A field or click on raise hand for all your questions. I will now turn the call over to Belen Forcade. Please go ahead.

Good morning and thank you all for joining us today. The significant fiscal and monetary consolidation together with relative exchange rate stability have contributed to a process of inflation moderation throughout 2024 in Argentina. Likewise, after a sharp contraction in the first half of the year, there are clear signs of economic recovery, which after an expected average drop of 1.8% by the National Institute of Statistics for 2024 would expand around 5.5% in 2025 according to VVA research. The prospects for reducing inflation have been improving every month and the forecast is that it will converge to around 30% or even less in 2025. The collapse of country risk is also remarkable, which went from 1,900 bps to less than 700 bps at the end of twenty twenty four. On the other hand, one of the main factors of uncertainty is associated with the evolution of exchange rate and the pace of removal of exchange regulations. Since recently, the peso has remained more appreciated than expected. The banking system continues to grow at a high rate, driven by inflation control and the reforms introduced by the new government. Now moving on to business dynamics. As you can see on Slide three of our webcast presentation, our service offering has evolved in such a way that by the December 2024, new customer acquisition through digital channels reached 88% versus 78% a year ago.

The response on the side of customers has been satisfactory, and we are convinced that this is the path to pursue in the aim of sustaining and expanding our competitive position in the financial system. Retail digital sales measured in units reached 91% in the fourth quarter of twenty twenty four and represents 73.5% of the bank's total sales measured in monetary value. Moving to Slide four and five, I will now comment on the bank's fourth quarter twenty twenty four financial results. BVArgentina's inflation adjusted net income in the fourth quarter of twenty twenty four was ARS 64,700,000,000.0, decreasing 39.6% quarter over quarter. This implies a quarterly ROE of 9.5% and a quarterly ROE of 1.7%. The 48.1% fall in quarterly operating results was explained by a lower operating income and higher operating expenses. The decline in income was mainly due to: one, higher loan loss allowances, mainly driven by sustained growth in activity two, lower net free income three, lower net interest income as a result of a lower average monetary policy rate and four, lower interest generated by CTI linked bonds. On the side of expenses, personal expenses and operating expenses are higher, the latter due to the devaluation of investment properties.

It should be noted that the income tax line reflects a positive result derived from a change in accounting exposure that implies a reclassification of income tax calculation from other comprehensive income to the income statement. Net income for the period was highly impacted by income from the net monetary position, although with lower impact than the prior quarter. Inflation on the fourth quarter of twenty twenty four was 8.03%, lower than the 12.1% in the previous quarter. Consequently, the income from net monetary position line recorded a 16.2% lower loss than the previous quarter, having a positive income in the quarter over quarter net income comparison. Turning into the P and L lines in Slide six, we are going to comment on the financial results of the year. In 2024, PVR Argentina net income was ARS 357,700,000,000.0, 0 point 4 percent lower than the ARS 359,200,000,000.0 reported in 2023. This implies an accumulated annualized ROE of 12.5% and an ROE of 2.5% in 2024 compared to an ROE of 13% and an ROE of 2.7% in 2023. The 25.8% fall in real terms of the bank's operating income is mainly explained by one, a fall in net interest income due to lower accrued average rates in loans and due to lower inflation, which has an impact on CPI linked bonds and two, lower income from foreign exchange and gold gains, in particular due to the position in dual bonds by the end of twenty twenty three, which increased the position in USD denominated assets by the year end.

Nonetheless, improvements in operating expenses are observed, especially in personnel expenses and lower expenses due to turnover tax. These effects were compensated by better income from financial instruments at fair value through P and L and an improvement in income from write down of assets at amortized cost and fair value through OCI as a result of the sale, exchange and maturity of bonds, mainly CPI linked bonds. Regarding net interest income, in 2024, this totaled ARS2.9 trillion, falling 17.3% year over year. This was a result of one, a fall in income from public securities as public debt migrated from central bank instruments onto treasury debt, together with an aggressive decline in the monetary policy rate and two, lower income from loans also was a consequence of lower market rates. Even so, interest expenses decreased as time deposit rates were deregulated and followed the overall decline in market rates. Interest from time deposits explained 66.4 of interest expenses in the quarter versus 71% the prior quarter. In the year, net free income decreased 6.6%, explained by a 0.1% increase in income and an 8.1% increase in expenses. This performance is mainly due to one, a lower income from collecting services and transfers within an overall decline of the lines that are part of fees linked to liabilities and two, higher expenses in foreign currency.

Net fee income is also justified by the active strategy focused on client acquisition. As of December 2024, VB Air Gendina gained more than 142,000 clients, reaching 3,700,000 total active clients, which means a 3% growth year over year. During 2024, total operating expenses were ARS1.7 trillion, decreasing 3.9% year over year in real terms, of which 31% were personal benefit costs. In the year, personal benefits fell 4.6%. In spite of wages following the pace of inflation, the year increase was lower with adjustment of stock of vacation days and variable remuneration. Administrative expenses grew 3.9% year over year, mainly due to taxes related to wire transfers produced by dividend payments, followed by document distribution, advertising costs and armor transportation services, the latter affected by the tax amnesty dynamics. The accumulated efficiency ratio as of the fourth quarter of twenty twenty four was 61.8%, above the 59.7% reported in the third quarter of twenty twenty four and the 58.6% reported in the fourth quarter of twenty twenty three. The increase in this ratio is due to a decrease in income, both fee and the interest income. In 2024, total NIM was 35% versus 37.3% in 2023, recording a BRL234.

This happened in a context of an aggressive fall in interest rates starting 2024 with a monetary policy rate of 100% and ending in 32%. However, given that the average maturity of interest earning assets is longer than that of deposits, price adjustment for expenses is faster than core income, mitigating the fall in the NIM. Additionally, USD denominated deposits had a high relative growth, diluting the expenses generated by total deposits. Sustained credit growth in real terms since April 2024 allows the bank to take a more defensive stance to protect the margin from successive decreases in interest rates during the year with a longer term fixed rate credit. Securities portfolio management is to be noted as the bank has converted part of its floating rate securities into securities of longer maturities at fixed rate in a context of declining rates mitigating effects on the NIM. Private sector loans as of the fourth quarter of twenty twenty four totaled ARS 7,600,000,000,000.0, increasing 28.7% or ARS 1,700,000,000,000.0 quarter over quarter and 75% or ARS3.3 trillion year over year. Loans to the private sector in pesos increased 26.2% in quarter over quarter and 61.5% year over year. During the quarter, growth was especially driven by: one, a 25.5% increase in credit cards followed by two, a 26.5% increase in discounted instruments and three, a 29.2% increase in customer loans.

This is followed by a 26.1% growth in loans to personnel and 23.7% growth in overdrafts. In all cases, the increment is boosted by a genuine growth in real terms of the portfolio, levered on the lower market interest rates and greater commercial efforts. Loans to the private sector denominated in foreign currency increased 42.9% quarter over quarter and 194.6% year over year. Quarterly increase is mainly explained by an 81% growth in financing and pre financing of exports. During the quarter, the commercial portfolio grew 30.6% and the retail portfolio increased 26.5%. The commercial portfolio represents 56.7% of the total portfolio from 50.7% a year ago. As observed in previous quarters, loan portfolios were impacted by the effect of inflation during the fourth quarter of twenty twenty four, which reached 8%. In nominal terms, BVArgentina managed to increase the retail, commercial and total loan portfolio by 36.6%, forty one % and thirty nine % respectively during the quarter, surpassing quarter inflation levels in all cases. As of the fourth quarter of twenty twenty four, the total growth loans and other financing over deposits ratio was 77.5% above the 64.9% recorded in the third quarter and above the 65.5% in the fourth quarter of twenty twenty three.

Participation of total loans over assets is 51% versus 43% in the third quarter of twenty twenty four and thirty two percent in the fourth quarter of twenty twenty three, evidencing a lower exposure to the public sector in line with the real growth of credit demand. BAVA Argentina's consolidated market share of private sector loans reached 11.31% as of the fourth quarter of twenty twenty four, improving from 9.35% a year ago and sustaining the two digit figure. As of the fourth quarter of twenty twenty four, asset quality ratios keep a very good performance at 1.13% with non performing loans growing below the growth of total loan portfolio. On the funding side, as of the fourth quarter of twenty twenty four, total deposits reached ARS 9,900,000,000,000.0, increasing 7.8% quarter over quarter. The bank's consolidated market share of private deposits reached 8.72% as of the fourth quarter of twenty twenty four. Private non financial sector deposits in pesos totaled ARS 6,300,000,000,000.0, increasing 13.5 compared to the third quarter of twenty twenty four and twenty three point five percent compared to the fourth quarter of twenty twenty three. The quarterly change is mainly affected by a 14.1% increase in time deposits and a 15% increase in savings account.

Private non financial sector deposits in foreign currency expressed in pesos increased 0.8% quarter over quarter and 27.8% year over year. This is mainly explained by a 20.9% increase in time deposits, partially offset by a 0.4% fall in savings accounts. VIVI Argentina continues to show a strong solvency indicators on the fourth quarter of twenty twenty four. Capital ratio reached 19.5%. Capital excess over regulatory requirement reached 138.5%. It is important to mention that capital ratio was highly impacted in the second quarter of twenty twenty four by dividend distribution. Furthermore, the fall in the capital ratio in this quarter is partially explained by the 14.9% increase in risk weighted assets linked to a real growth in the loan portfolio, in line with the increase in market risk requirements. As of the fourth quarter of twenty twenty four, total public sector exposure, excluding Central Bank, totaled ARS2.6 trillion, decreasing 7.3% quarter over quarter. In the year, exposure to the public sector decreased significantly if central bank instruments were considered, bearing in mind that the government migrated debt from the central bank to treasury securities. Exposure to the public sector, excluding Central Bank exposure, represents 18% of total assets, below 21% in the third quarter of twenty twenty four and as mentioned before, in line with real loan growth demand.

In the quarter, liquid assets were ARS5.4 trillion, decreasing 13.3% quarter over quarter. This was mainly driven by a decline in cash and deposits in banks, a 9.9% fall in public securities and a 98.1% fall in overnight transaction in foreign banks. As of December of twenty twenty four, the bank issued corporate bonds Class 31, 30 two, 30 three and 30 four, two of them in pesos with Tamara adjustment and two of them in U. S. Dollars, all of them maturing in a year or less. Without considering the issuance of corporate bonds in September, Bibi Argentina's last corporate bond issuance was in 2019. This concludes our prepared remarks. We will now take your questions. Operator, please open the line for questions.

Thank you. We are now going to start the Q and A section for investors and analysts. Our first question comes from Carlos Lopez from HSBC. Please Mr. Lopez, your microphone is open.

Hello, Belen, and thank you for taking my call. You may have said this before and I missed it. So what are your expectations for growth in loans, deposits and profitability for 2025? Again, with the understanding that there is a lot of uncertainty here.

Carlos, how are you? Of course. On the side of private loans, we are expecting the system to grow about between 4045%. And we are expecting ourselves to grow around 60% or 65%, of course, focusing on the increasing market share that we have been going on for this whole year and for the past at least five years. Of course, all of this is subject to the uncertainty that you mentioned.

Now this is 40%, forty five % nominal and you're 60%, sixty five % nominal. And you referred to 30% forecast for inflation. Is that your forecast or that is the market consensus?

No. First of all, the 40%, forty three % for the system is real terms and what it represents is real terms too. So we are Just wait a second while we reconnect the speaker.

Speaking just in real terms, we are expecting to compare demand.

Sorry, sorry, sorry, sorry, sorry, sorry, sorry, sorry, sorry, sorry, sorry, sorry, sorry, sorry, sorry, sorry, sorry, sorry, I don't know what to worry you heard. We are speaking all in real terms. Yes. Hi?

Yes, yes. So you were saying that this 60%, sixty five % of growth that you expect is in real terms. And again, can you repeat what your expectation or your economic team expectation as of today is for inflation for this year?

Yes. We are expecting 30%. I understand that we are being a bit more conservative than the market consensus, but we usually are. So we are keeping our expectations on 30% for the time year. And if you don't mind, could you go over your other economic assumptions? What do you expect for growth? And most importantly, what do you expect for interest rates and for the exchange rate?

Okay. For the time being, we are seeing the monetary policy rate right now at 30 no, sorry, 29. But we are seeing 2025% ending in a 24% monetary policy rate. An FX rate of around ARS1300 at the official rate and a JV growth of 5.5% for 2025.

Okay.

And Our next question comes from Carlos Lopez from HSBC.

Hello, Alan. And since there doesn't seem to be a lot of other questions, I'm going to do a follow-up. Joe, we mentioned your growth. I think I also asked earlier about your expectations for profitability. We have seen your peers talk about either 10% to 15% or in some cases 15% to 20%. Do you look at the profitability in terms of ROE or ROA? And what is the range that you think is realistic for 2025 and beyond?

Carlos, Carmen speaking. So we are talking about these mid teens in ROE, maybe by us a little bit lower. So yes, we will contain these expectations in terms of ROE.

So again, when you said bit lower, you have to be more like 12%, thirteen % as opposed to 15%, sixteen %?

Yes. That's right, Carlos.

Very good. And that's for this year. Is that a temporary thing? And again, I realize that everything is in flux and it can change a lot. But when you look into '26, '20 '7, what do you think is a sustainable rate of return for you for the system in an environment of more growth but also lower inflation?

So yes, as you mentioned, it's difficult to say that as of today. Having said that, we are supposed that you can maintain these meetings. And maybe by the end of twenty twenty seven or so, maybe you can see something better. But we are not expecting much higher figures.

Okay. And since you are growing so much and eventually you will have more consumption of capital, you already adjusted your capital with a big dividend last year. And actually, if you can remind me exactly how much you paid in 2024. What is your capital plan for 2025? Do you want to give a dividend? And if so, do you have any particular level in mind? Okay. We are waiting for the regulation. So that's one thing. The other thing is that we are projecting that we can pay a dividend this year if we are allowed to do so. Of course, much lower than the amount we paid last year, which was so the approved dividend was around ARS 400,000,000,000. So we are expecting to pay a smaller payout and as of the income from last year and not from the accumulated income as it was last year.

But you haven't defined it yet. I mean, we understand you haven't been approved, but you also don't do you have an idea? Are we talking 20%, fifty %, seventy %?

I would prefer not to tell you exact figure. So just say that it will be a lower payout as it was compared to last year. Okay.

And do you expect to do this in a single payment? Or you will have to spread it out as in It will depend on regulation, Carlos. So we have to wait until the Central Bank defines how we can pay.

Pay. All right. Thank you very much for your answers.

Thank you.

Our next question comes from Brent Arunsil from Portales. Can you address asset quality, loan losses and reserves?

Okay. Let's say for the quarter and for the whole year, NPLs have been very low. For BB-eight, it has been like one of the lowest of the system, if not the lowest at some point with 1.13% of NPLs. The system is I mean, just to talk about the Argentine system, NPLs are very low. For December, the systems NPL was 1.56% around that. So we don't see any concerns on the side of non performing loans. We have seen an outstanding increase in loans for the fourth quarter. So well, you can see that in our earnings release. We have increased our coverage. And mostly on the P and L, we can see an increase in loan loss allowances. But this is all connected to the remarkable growth that we've had in the last quarter. And so I already commented on what expectations on loan growth will be for 2025. And we don't see NPLs suffering much. We see very slight increase. But in line with what we are seeing, we are not seeing any concerns on the side of asset quality Well, just I'm going on what I'm seeing on the questions. Sorry. Yes, I understand your concern on the side of profitability, but asset quality is sort of disconnected on this because the profitability is mainly explained by what we have seen on the dynamics of exchange of interest rates in the market.

And also, you have to take consideration that we started 2024 with 100% nominal interest rate on the monetary policy rate. And this profitability came from securities, not from loans. So this year, you had a transition from the participation of securities on your assets, on your total assets that went down to around less than 20% in contrast with loans that went above 50% of your assets by the end of twenty twenty four. So if you combine the transition from securities to loans and the fact that rates declined aggressively from 100% to 32%. This is what explains not just for VBA, but for the rest of the banks on why you see mostly net interest income going down. But this is logical for the system. It's not a BBA thing. You may compare, I don't know, some of our peers having gone on M and A transactions in the past. So it's not really comparable in that case. But the story of why NIMs are going down is what explains your profitability and not the growth in loans and in asset quality. And Our next question comes from Adriano Mariani from Seijou Capital. Please, Mr. Mariani, your microphone is open.

Hi, hello team and congratulations on results. I guess, can you touch a bit on what you expect for funding in terms of kind of deposit growth, etcetera? I mean, you guys are expecting a lot of growth in loans. So if you can touch quickly on that and also kind of what level of kind of percentage of assets in securities should we expect this kind of a long term level?

Hi, Adriano. On the side of funding, we are not concerned about liquidity. We have deposits growing. This year, they have grown 25% in real terms, of course. And we are not expecting to have we are expecting to match this loan growth that we are focusing on, on what you have already seen in issuance of corporate bonds. We have issued, I think, five no, sorry, from '29 to 34. They are five corporate bonds, both in pesos and in U. S. Dollars. And we still see that there is still plenty of space for going on to corporate bonds for funding. We don't see any need for additional capital at least at I don't know, like at least 2026.

Just a quick follow-up. And these corporate bonds, are they dollar denominated or based on average?

We have both. We have fixed no, variable rate pesos corporate bonds. And we have also issued USD denominated bonds.

Okay. And maybe a last follow-up on the growth. How do you expect kind of the split to be between commercial and consumer? And maybe within consumer, where you expect to see the areas of largest growth?

We have already seen that we have been focusing on the commercial segment and this has shifted the proportions of retail and commercial to around like more than 50% of the portfolio is commercial. We see that growing in line with what we would expect with the incipient growth in GDP and in activity as companies are sort of the first ones to start taking loans. But then we have to bear in mind that we have now mortgages going on since July. And we see those retail segments growing mortgages and also personal loans, which we have focused on and we have grown a lot in terms of market share of personal loans. But well, we are going on both commercial and retail. But for the last few quarters, the strategy has been a little bit more focused on commercial, and that's why the mix changed from retail to mostly commercial. But we are not doing it in detriment of retail at all. We are going on both sides.

Thanks. Very helpful.

Uh-huh. Okay. And Thank you. This does conclude the Q and A session and the conference of PPVA Argentina's fourth quarter twenty twenty four earnings call. We appreciate your participation and wish you a very good day.