Bloomin' Brands, Inc. Price & Performance (BLMN)

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. With me on today's call are Mike Spanos, our Chief Executive Officer and Michael Healy, Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President. By now, you should have access to our fiscal fourth quarter twenty twenty four earnings release and our investor presentation slides. Both of which can be found on our website at www.bloominbrands.com in the Investors section. Throughout this conference call, we will be presenting results on an adjusted basis. An explanation of our use of non GAAP financial measures and reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP measures appear in our earnings release on our website as previously described. Before we begin formal remarks, I'd like to remind everyone that including a discussion of recent trends, These statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ in a material way our forward looking statements.

Some of these risks are mentioned in our earnings release. Others are discussed in our SEC filings, which are available at www.sec.gov. During today's call, we'll provide a brief recap of our financial performance for the the fiscal fourth quarter twenty twenty four, an overview of company highlights and current thoughts on fiscal twenty twenty five guidance. Once we've completed these remarks, we'll open the call up for questions. With that, I would now like to turn the call over to Mike Spannas.

Thanks, Tara, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining our fourth quarter earnings call. On today's call, I will discuss my observations of the business, and steps we are taking to improve business results in 2025. In my first six months, I have become even more excited about future potential of our business.

We have started the holistic strategy work and will be transparent on our findings as part of our earnings calls in the coming quarters. What we know at this stage is consumers love our brands and they want us to succeed.

We are actively implementing key actions to improve operations and deliver a better guest experience. Michael will discuss our financial performance, including how to understand our company and our financials now that the Brazil transaction closed on 12/30/2024. As I've spent time with our teams in the restaurants, it is clear to me that we have empowered and energized team members that want to win. Our principles and beliefs state that the success of a restaurant is measured by its growth in sales and profits and is the result of taking care of our people, our guests, supplier partners and communities. Our teams want to deliver an outstanding guest experience and want to win. It is our job to work with our team to make it easier for them to deliver out We have iconic brands that have a strong right to large scale categories I have even more confidence in the long term success of the company as we have ample pass and a good balance sheet in order to make any strategic investments.

However, reality is that we are currently not succeeding. As noted in the release this morning, although our fourth quarter results were within our expected guidance range, we underperformed the industry and lost share as defined by Black Box, by two sixty basis points on sales and four ten basis points on traffic. We are not pleased with our performance and acknowledge that we need to change the trajectory of the business. Our results are also not in any way indicative of the hard work of our team members or the foundational strength of our brands.

In working with my leadership team and listening to our partners in the field, it's clear that there are immediate actions we can take to address our near term business results. We are focused on building sustainable traffic and profitable comparable restaurant sales growth the right way. By improving quality, value and the guest experience As we move forward, we are focusing on three operating priorities. First is simplify the agenda. Second is deliver a great guest experience. Third, is a turnaround of Outback. I will discuss each of these areas and actions we are taking now to improve our results. First, simplify the agenda. We have become too complex as an organization. We need to simplify the agenda for both our people in the restaurant support center and in our restaurants. When we simplify the agenda and focus the team on fewer things that are the most important, serve our people so that they can take care of our guests. We started this effort by refranchising our Brazil operations. We have a tremendous partner in Vinci and look forward to growing that business together. We have retained a 33% ownership of the business and can sell the remaining portion in 2028.

Importantly, having a partner for Brazil that is based in Brazil and entirely focused on Brazil gives our management team in The U. S. The capacity to focus on growing our domestic company owned business and support our international franchisees. This partnership also derisks our business model. Going forward, over 30% of our total restaurants will operate as franchisees with a steady royalty stream and less earnings volatility. We continue to believe that our international franchise business is strong and can continue to grow new units and comparable restaurant sales. We've also taken actions to become a more operation centric and simple organization at our restaurant support center. We've implemented an organizational structure that is more cost efficient and more effective in speed of decision making by flattening layers and empowering our brand presidents with the resources and dedicated teams to drive their business. Previously centralized functions of marketing, training, [indiscernible] Off premises and domestic franchisee leadership are now housed inside the brand teams for an integrated approach. We have maintained resources within the restaurant support center that deliver more capability and efficiency to support the brands. Our long term G and A goal will continue to be 5% as a percentage of revenue I want to acknowledge and thank our team members that exited the organization this past week due to our organizational restructuring.

While it was difficult, it is essential we streamline the organization and I know that our team is excited about the future and our growth. [indiscernible] We will also simplify the agenda inside the restaurant I've heard it loud and clear coming from our restaurants. We need to make it simpler for our operators to execute all aspects of the guest and team member experience. We need to make fewer items, but make those much better. We are reducing our menu items in all brands by 10% to 20% in 2025.

We are removing low satisfaction and low mix menu items based on guest feedback and prep labor complexity.

We are moving away from our LTO strategy that included non core menu items with discounts presented every ten to twelve weeks. We will transition to abundant value that is feature as part of our everyday menu offering. We've started with the Offsy three course at Outback are currently testing simplified menus and everyday value in both Carrabba's and Bone We will measure success based on the guests intent to return, building frequency of visitation and gross profit dollars. Our second operating consistently deliver a great guest experience. We know we win with a quality meal at a great value attentive and engaging service and an excellent guest experience. We started by reassessing the menu satisfaction of all items both on and off We are improving, eliminating or replacing menu items that are We are retraining our standards to recipes and reevaluating cooking procedures to consistently provide the quality and flavor our guests expect from us.

We are also working with our supplier partners to enhance our product specifications. We'll roll out these improved specifications throughout the balance of the year continue to improve our center of the plate quality and abundance. In our off premises channel, we are removing menu items that have low [indiscernible] do not travel well or create complexity for our operators. It is critical that hot food is hot and cold food is cold in all channels. Eliminating these items will improve operational execution and guest satisfaction. Additionally, we are evaluating our technology capabilities to better support our operators managing demand both in restaurant and off premises during peak dinner hours to ensure great in restaurant experience. We will now have immediate guest feedback at Outback through our partnership with Ziosk.

We can measure guest satisfaction by restaurant and by shift. With features like pay at the table, have to pay with mobile wallet and entertainment, Outback is offering guests a faster and simpler experience. We will have the rollout completed by the April and are already seeing efficiencies with our staff as well as an improved guest experience in those restaurants. In our test restaurants, approximately 80% of our guests are using Ziosk Pay at the Table. Another area of opportunity is our promotional digital and consumer messaging. At Outback, we have focused on traffic generation through large scale campaigns like Stigmas or Staycation. Both from a marketing standpoint and promotional offer standpoint. We were featuring items in short promotional periods that created complexity for our operators. And we failed to drive value in our core high equity menu items with compelling food quality, and brand impressions, We are shifting our approach to provide clear messaging that highlights craveable food, abundant everyday value and a reverent fund. Outback's Off C3 course was our strongest It resonated with our guests and our operators could easily execute it. Many guests traded up to the premium entrees and dessert options. Our third priority is to focus on the turnaround at Outback Steakhouse Outback is our largest and most important brand I will spend the majority of my time focused on that business.

Last year, we had many elements in test and an incubation rest restaurant with a focus on quality, value and the guest experience.

We are excited by the results seen in that lab restaurant and have now moved to test As of the February, we will have 14 restaurants in test.

We are measuring success by traffic lift, guest intent to return, Outback or employee engagement, and profitability. We have been leveraging Zios to provide real time feedback I've been personally involved in the test restaurants with our teams and I am highly encouraged by the improvements.

Seeing the impact in these restaurants has been infectious for our people, and their belief in the future growth of the brand. The passion that we see from our Outbackers and the enjoyment that we see from our guests is reminiscent of Outback at its best. Our plan is to continue to monitor the test restaurants as we learn in order to be ready for brand wide expansion. We will be able to share more on the net investments test results and specific actions in the upcoming quarters.

While we have an urgency to move fast, the most important thing for us is to get it right. And ensure that all investments we make have a compelling return. We need to invest in the quality and condition of our existing asset base at Outback.

Beginning in 2026, we are slowing down our new unit pipeline. We will continue to open new restaurants, but at a much slower pace. We'll shift our focus to taking care of our existing restaurants and earn the right to open new restaurants again. We have a repair and maintenance survey underway that is evaluating the current state of each restaurant. It will be completed by the end of Q2 which will help inform our analysis on remodel scopes. Additionally, our goal will be to remodel more restaurants using prudently lower spend, higher impact scopes yielding better returns driven by improved traffic. Remodel activity will begin in earnest in the latter half of this year and will take more of the capital dollars moving forward. Michael will give additional details on the financials with our capital expenditure.

We need to reinforce an operational mindset at Outback and that starts leadership I'm very excited that Pat Haffner has been promoted to the President of Outback. Starting mid January. He's a twenty nine year veteran of the Outback brand and a true guest centric operator. Started as a cook at Outback and has progressed through each role including managing partner, and VP of Operations. He most recently served as the President of Corbus. TEP's high energy and bias for action coupled with strong leadership to develop high performance teams, will serve him well as he returns to lead. Our Outbackers. I'm very pleased to announce Keila Bizio has been promoted to President of Caravas, back filling Pat. Quila is another exceptional operator. Starting as an hourly employee at Taco Bell.

After a successful twenty eight year career at Yum! Including regional operational roles, she joined Corabas as a joint venture partner 2012 served as Kravitz Vice President of Operations and most recently as the Vice President of Operations for Bonefish Grill. Her deep operating experience from the cash register to her current role her passion for people and serious food, her high standards for execution and her proven track record of makes her an ideal leader for this role.

Lastly, before I turn it over to Michael, I would like to provide an update on our capital [indiscernible] Our priorities are reinvesting back into our restaurants. Reducing our debt leverage post the Brazil transaction and returning capital to our shareholders. We are committed to getting our leverage back to below a three point zero lease adjusted net leverage. We received the first installment of the Brazil proceeds on 12/30/2024 and apply the proceeds to our revolver balance. We intend to use the second installment to be received at the December this year towards our revolver as well. As it relates to our dividend, this is our first quarter post the Brazil transaction.

We are therefore adjusting our dividend such that our dividend payout ratio will be more in line with our historical payout ratio based on the earnings of the business post the Brazil transaction.

Our new annual dividend will be $0.6 per share compared to $0.96 per share previously. I want to be clear that we know we need to take actions to improve our results. We are focused on driving everyday value within our casual dining brands while also delivering a great guest experience. Our work will take time, and we will be transparent along the way. We know that we have hard work to do but the team and I believe in the future. As I committed to you on my first earnings call, my team and I will be strategic and grounded in our operations and decisions we need to make. I will communicate our path and progress in a transparent way. And I hold my team and myself accountable for delivering strong results. With that, I would like to now turn the call over to Michael to review our financial Thank you, Mike, and hello, everyone. I would like to start by providing a recap of our consolidated financial performance for the fiscal fourth quarter of twenty twenty four, and then I will provide additional detail on the Brazil transaction and how to think about our financials and guidance under continuing operations moving forward.

On a consolidated basis, total revenues in Q4 were $1,100,000,000 which is down 8% from 2023. This was almost entirely driven by lapping the 50 third week from last year which was $83,500,000 in sales as well as the net effect of restaurant openings and closures. U. S. Comparable restaurant sales were negative 110 basis [indiscernible] and traffic was negative five ten basis points. Which was below the casual dining industry. Average check was up 4% in Q4 versus 2023 our U. S. Business in line with our expectations. Q4 off premises was 24% of total U. S. Sales, Our third party delivery business is 11% of total U. S. Sales in line with last year.

Our Q4 GAAP diluted earnings per share for the quarter was negative $0.93 versus $0.45 in 2023. Our Q4 adjusted diluted earnings per share was $0.38 versus $0.56 in 2023.

The primary difference between GAAP and adjusted diluted earnings per share is due to adjustments from the sale of Brazil, including $68,000,000 for the impairment of Brazil assets held for sale related to the FX erosion since acquiring the majority interest in 2013 as well as $34,000,000 in deferred tax expense from the transaction. Additionally, there was a $31,000,000 impairment charge primarily related to 41 older underperforming domestic restaurants in Q4. These impairments were partially offset by a $16,000,000 gain in connection with the foreign currency forward contracts that we entered into to partially offset the risk associated Q4 adjusted operating margins were 4.4% versus 7.5% last year.

The fifty third week is a highly profitable week and reflected one hundred and twenty basis points on the quarter in 2023. The remaining 190 basis point difference between this year and last year was driven by overall restaurant level margin declined by 130 basis COGS inflation was 2% in line with our expectations labor inflation was 3.2% as we continue to experience inflationary pressure on wages, Restaurant operating expense inflation was low single digits with additional costs from higher insurance and legal expenses. Impairment expenses related to previously closed restaurants and other inventory related expenses The margin headwinds were partially offset by the Brazil tax benefit which was worth approximately 40 basis points on the quarter. Turning to our capital structure. Total debt net of cash was $957,000,000,000 at the end of Q4. Subsequent to the transaction closing, we received $104,000,000 from the first installment of the Brazil franchising transaction and applied these proceeds to our revolver balance in the first quarter. Our leverage metrics are currently above our targeted range. As Mike mentioned, reducing our debt leverage is a primary and we are committed to a lease adjusted leverage of less than three times. We anticipate the next installment of Brazil proceeds to be received at the December this year to be approximately $96,000,000 and intend to apply it to the revolver balance.

Year to date, we have repurchased a total of 10,100,000.0 shares or approximately $266,000,000 This included shares issued in connection with the repurchase in March of a portion of our convertible notes. We have $97,000,000 remaining under our share authorization program. As Mike mentioned, we are updating our dividend to reflect the reduced earnings from the sale of Brazil and setting the payout ratio in line with our historical average.

Board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.15 a share that is payable on March 26, 2025. Now turning to continuing and discontinued operations, and then our guidance for the upcoming year and first quarter. As it relates to Brazil, have transitioned to our franchise model where 100% of the royalty revenues will be recorded in the franchise line consistent with our other third party franchisees This reflects a more stable revenue stream which is good for our company in the long term. Going forward, we will present the company's 2024 performance in terms of continuing operations which has Brazil removed as an equity market and the royalty revenue rec On a continuing operations basis, for the full year 2024, total revenue was $3,950,000,000 adjusted restaurant margin was 13.3% adjusted operating income margin was 5%, and adjusted diluted earnings per share was $1.45 Brazil within discontinued operations contributed 0.9% in adjusted restaurant margin 0.2% of adjusted operating margin and $0.34 in adjusted diluted earnings per share.

We had historically received a 5% intercompany royalty or approximately $26,000,000 in 2024 which was eliminated in consolidation in our historical financial results. This royalty revenue remains in continuing operations for historical periods per GAAP standards within the franchise revenues line. The Brazil tax legislation been and was worth $21,000,000 in total revenue approximately $10,000,000 in operating income and approximately $0.14 of adjusted diluted earnings per share. Our retained 33% ownership will be recognized using equity method investment accounting. Work is still underway to determine income flow through of our remaining equity ownership including fair value accounting considerations in Brazil.

However, do not anticipate that the post tax contribution will produce a meaningful contribution to our net income in 2025. As we think about our go forward guidance, please compare to continuing operations. We expect the full year U. S. Comparable restaurant sales to be down 2% to We expect commodities inflation to be between 2.53.5% driven in large part by beef inflation. We expect labor inflation to be between 45%. We expect our full year tax rate assumption to be close to 0% driven by our FICA tip credits. Brazil royalty revenue will be lower than our historical intercompany royalty rate and is on the lower end of our published range of 2.75% to 5%. This will create an approximate $10,000,000 headwind comparing future royalties to historical continuing operations due to GAAP accounting requirements that were previously mentioned. Additionally, our earnings per share guidance includes approximately $10,000,000 in investment in Ziosk product enhancements and IT infrastructure. Mike mentioned the G and A savings initiative and organizational design work. This action will bring approximately $22,000,000 of annualized G and A savings of which approximately $17,000,000 will be realized in 2025. We expect total G and A to be approximately $225,000,000 for 2025.

Which includes approximately $12,000,000 from reloading compensation and approximately $10,000,000 of IT and infrastructure investments. We will earn interest income on second payment from the ZIL transaction which will lower our net interest expense for the year. Capital expenditures are expected to be between $190,000,000 and $210,000,000 We are shifting our focus from new restaurant development to investing our base business through maintenance and remodels, that we can create more value from our existing operations. We believe there is unit growth opportunity for our brands but particularly for Outback, we need to focus on getting the guest experience right before we earn the right grow units.

As many of our new units planned this year were committed, we plan to open approximately 18 to 20 new restaurants in The U. S. This year in markets and locations we are excited about. That number will decline dramatically in 2026.

We expect our franchise partner in Brazil to open approximately approximately 17 new units with 15 new units from other franchise partners. As it relates to the first quarter of twenty twenty five, similar to the rest of the industry, we experienced negative impacts from weather in the start of this offset by holiday shifts from New Year's and Valentine's Day. Combined, these represent approximately negative 100 basis points comparable sales impact on the quarter and has been included in our comparable sales guidance. We expect U. S. Comparable restaurant sales to be between negative 50 basis points and negative 150 basis points. We expect Q1 adjusted diluted earnings per share be between $0.55 and $0.6 which includes approximately $0.04 negative net impact from weather and holiday shifts. And with that, we will open up the call for questions.

Yes. Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. And the first question comes from Alex Stegel with Jefferies.

Thanks. Good morning. Question for You might Thanos, you've expressed the importance of taking care of the people and helping ensure they can do their jobs well and enjoy everything and help the guests. I guess you highlighted a number of plan changes on this front. I just want kind of get a sense of the timeline for these actions and there's any other big changes you want to look at to get kind of where you want to be Yes. Hey, Alex. Just to be clear, you're talking about org structure around simple agenda, just so I'm clear on your question.

Yes, sorry about that. Simplifying the agenda.

Yes, got it. So the I'd say, obviously, with an operational mindset, I think we started with that quickly with the changes with Pat and Keila from a leadership standpoint. Second, Brazil, We moved very quickly on that to derisk and simplify the business. That's done. New York structure, it was a tough week for us, but we moved and have moved on that. And a lot of that was to delayer the organization, empower and put the resource at the brand level for speed of decision making On the menu front, three of the brands will have approximately a 10% to 15% reduction by May. Outback will be a higher number. We'll probably that'll push towards that 20% number. But as we're doing the work on the base menu and looking at our test stores will be thoughtful and deliberate in getting that right as we move along. The only other two things I'd mention is Ziosk I stated, that will be done in place by the end of April. I feel really good about our pace week to week. In terms of the LTOs abundant everyday value, we're rolling right now with OSC three course. The big benefit of that will probably be more in the second half just given some of the calendar lapse.

But that kicked off right after Valentine's Day. The other two Carrabba's, they're currently in test and are rolling out abundant value as well. And the Fleming's is all about elevation of the execution So we won't be doing anything beyond what we typically do today with Tomahawk Tuesday and other day to day offers.

Got it. That's helpful. And follow-up in thinking about the blended same store sales range for first quarter. Should we consider similar trends by brand as we saw in the fourth quarter? Is there a reason to think a different trajectory for certain brands?

Yes, Alex, I think your takeaway is right, meaning what you saw in the fourth quarter in terms of trend by brand and also Outback you should assume that's consistent in the first quarter similar trends.

Got it. Thank you. Thank you. And then as question comes from Jeffrey Bernstein with Barclays.

Two questions. The first one just talking more about the the comp trends.

Think you talked about in the first quarter that the impact of weather and holiday shifts is 100 basis points to the full quarter.

But do you get a sense there any underlying changes in consumer spending beyond just weather and holiday shifts know most are questioning whether the consumer is perhaps a little bit more conservative or cautious in their spending. The components you're assuming in that comp for both the first quarter and the year? And then I had one follow-up. Yes, I got it, Jeffrey.

So I would say we're seeing a choppy environment and we're seeing a choosy consumer, but but we see that more in the short term. And what I mean by that is in term of choppiness, we are definitely seeing some impact on weather geopolitical issues calendar shifts. We saw that in the fourth quarter with the shift on Thanksgiving. Q1, we saw that with the Valentine shift moving from a Wednesday to a Friday. And obviously some other areas related to short term and inflation. So I start there. As far as As far as the choosiness of the consumer, what we're seeing, we are seeing some check management with especially those households under about $100,000 We saw that in terms of appetizer mix, beverage attachment, and desserts that were a little bit lower than the fourth quarter. As far as the long term trends, I still feel really good about it. We saw really robust sales that Thursday, Friday, Saturday of Valentine's Day And what we are finding is when we meet the consumer where they're at with the right abundant value, they will make the visit and they'll visit more frequently. I continue to be very bullish on away from home.

The long term trends are there. So what we're doing is we're controlling what we're controlling. As I said, we're meeting the consumer where they're at to engage them. And I think that's where we're at. The last part of your question, I think that was implied this is included in our guide. When you think about Q1, you think about the full year, we've assumed this choppiness in those numbers.

Just to clarify, the components that you're assuming within the first quarter and full year comp in terms of traffic versus pricing? Yes. So for the first quarter, Q1, where we're assuming if you look at comp sales where we're assuming down 1.5% to a down 50 basis points. That would assume that the traffic is probably running between a negative 4% to a negative 5%.

Percent.

Pricing approximately in the 4% range, that would yield an average [indiscernible] between 34% as you deal with some of the mix. As Michael said, we're seeing commodities for the first quarter being pretty good, probably a little bit above the 1% range, labor about 4% for the quarter.

Got it. And then my follow-up is just on the bigger picture leadership and discussion with the activist Just wondering early relationship with the Board and activists, whether you think everyone's got kind of similar vision and priorities Maybe whether there are other strategic initiatives to focus on besides you said, you already spun out Brazil, but besides the Outback experience, just how we think about oversight of the brand, current management team, anything you want to share on Thank you.

Yes, you bet. The Board in terms of you mentioned the activists in terms of Starboard, fully aligned across the board. Very constructive, very collaborative, and the Board is pushing me and the management team the right way. They're making us better. We're all focused on doing the right things that drives sales, the right thing that drives profit and the right thing that drives sustainable traffic.

Thank you. And the next question comes from Brian Harber with Morgan Stanley.

Hey, Yes, thanks. Good morning, guys. [indiscernible] We talked about kind of a great guest experience. I guess what has feedback suggested is the main opportunity there? Or what do you where do you think is sort of It's inconsistency of execution. Okay, got it. And specifically, if you want me to double click on that, Quality value guest experience as a component. And what that means is what I care about is when that guest leaves the restaurant, I want them to be excited to return and have a strong intent to return and drive frequency of that's what matters. I also with that, that means our team members feel really good about that experience as well. And what that means is we should be getting traffic growth out of that, We should be getting good satisfaction out of that. We should be getting great gross profit dollars out of that. Okay. If you're going to be focusing on sort of reimaging, putting capital into existing stores, is Is there a certain cohort of stores we're talking about? Do you think that the majority need some investment. Is there sort of just a broader reimage cycle? What would you expect that to look like in anything on timing?

Yes. We're assuming approximately 50% will be touched the stores and we would want to complete those that work in terms of remodels in the next two to three years with the predominant focus being on Outback.

Okay. Thank you, guys. Thank you. And the next question comes from John Ivankoe with JPMorgan.

Hi, thank you. The question is really on your average ticket. And certainly, I understand what the percent menu price increases have been over the past couple of years. But I really want to look in terms of where we've landed on an absolute level in terms of a variety of items that your customers are ordering. The first question is, do you think the average ticket is right for the brand? Might there be an opportunity to lower the average ticket to drive sales, which I understand is very difficult to drive sales and profitability if you do lower the average ticket in, really try to frame this kind of in the context of what consumers see as various alternatives to specifically the Outback brand whether in casual dining or eat at home or loud casual or what have you?

Yes, John, thanks. I think it's a very good question. And it's the heart of revenue management and it's the heart of how we set up the menu. The first thing I would would say is we do need to meet the guests where they're at. And I believe we need to have abundant everyday value in all three of the casual dine brands And what we found, especially we found at OSC3 coursework, able to accomplish that with a healthy mix a healthy mix in terms of what the guest engages with and a healthy mix in terms of we think about our our PPA and how that flows through into the P and L. And we like that. It also assumes that we're also going to have to be thoughtful in terms of the craveable innovation and we're also going to have to be thoughtful about affordable opening price points for the guest. And what that orients us to is thinking about the business in terms of gross profit dollars because there's going to be trade offs to your point. And we know what that negative mix will be on the year as we invest in value and that's embedded in our guidance and assumptions.

Okay. Thank you. And are there any initial tests various packages of remodels that you think kind of make sense for the brand? I don't know if we're talking $500,000 a box, dollars 1,000,000 a box, something more than that. And what type of investment to sales lift ratio should at least we be kind of conceptually penciling in the model over 26%, 27%? [indiscernible] as Michael said, first of all, I think we need to earn the right before we start putting out new stores.

And I'd say that especially as relevant to Outback. And what we're finding is we can do lower spend higher touch and a better bang for the buck with really thoughtful spending. And we're seeing that in terms of the guest satisfaction experience, We're seeing that with traffic returns and that's going to be the orientation.

So the question was on remodels, maybe I didn't ask it kind of correctly. Just in terms of as we do think about kind of CapEx going into twenty six, '27, just given kind of a broad stroke in terms of broad brush in terms of what level of remodel CapEx that we should expect per unit for the 50% that you want Yes, John. So I think what we'll see is we'll see the pull down in new units in those dollars roughly call it $40,000,000 will shift in remodels as we get into 2026 going forward.

Okay. Thank you. Thank you. And the next question comes from Lauren Silverman with Deutsche Bank. [indiscernible] want to go back to the check management. Can you unpack that a little bit more in terms of what's driving trade down lower price items, attachment, alcohol mix? And how much different that is versus what you've been seeing in recent quarters?

Yes, it's up, Warren. So it's been slight. We saw about 100 basis points to 150 basis point movement from Q4 to Q1. We think that's definitely short term. But we're also making moves in terms of our beer and in alcohol, wine, liquor, etcetera, as well as our appetizers and desserts to meet the guests where they're at. What we're verifying is we're going to need to innovate in those areas. We already done that with mocktails across our beverage portfolio and we're doing it across the other attachments as well.

Great.

Thanks. And then I just wanted to also ask about the you're thinking about that? How much is locked in? I know you mentioned commodities a little bit above 1% in 1Q. Can you just help us think through what you're embedding for the rest of the year?

Yes, commodities award for the full year. Yes. And specifically on the beef as well. Yes. I got it. Just so I didn't hear you for a minute. Yes, so commodities we're assuming Michael said between 2.5 to 3.5% We're locked in approximately about 76% range in that area. We expect beef specifically to be in the definitely in the mid single digits. That's all included in our guide and in our forecast.

Thank you very much.

Thank you.

The next question comes from Jeff Farmer with Gordon Haskett.

Thanks.

You guys certainly touched on a lot of things today, but but bigger picture, specifically with Outback, what do you see as sort of the greatest untapped opportunity to drive traffic in the near term at that core Outback concept.

Its consistency of execution It really is. And I'll speak to this. I I think Outback so it's consistent with execution, but maybe the broader point where you're going is, if you we've got to address the quality, we've got to address the value, we've got to address the guest experience. Outback is a great business. Is a great brand. We've got a great team. It's very on trend in terms of the category. It is a very fixable business. I'm highly confident we can and we will fix this business. It is going to take some time. As we change the cultural focus of the organization, we know where we want to go. We're fine tuning and articulating the elements of the plan and the business model. We're moving fast, but it's important we get it right. And I want to stress that we need to get it right. We're going to continue to get clarity on our plan as we move forward. There's There's definitely more work to be done. But I feel it's a really good business with sound fundamentals. And it's a business I know we can turn around and I know the team feels that way.

Okay. And then unrelated as it just sort of going back to the 2025 same store sales guidance, a couple of questions here. So what does that assume about casual dining segment traffic as a whole, just how that does? And then you touched on this. So in addition to that, your ability to actually win market share sort of going up against a casual dining peer group that's aggressively promoting value and doing some of the same things you guys are doing. So a lot of questions there, but ultimately what does your 2025 sales guidance assume about what the casual dining segment traffic looks like in 2025 and ability to win share. I'd say we're expecting casual dining traffic to be down about three And obviously, we'll see as we come out of this choppiness period if that improves and where it goes. As far as win and share, it's about consistent execution. Being really sharp on our value every day. To drive good traffic and that is frequency of visitation. It's again quality, value, experience. It's great marketing. Just doing the basics really well every day. We the other thing I like is is we go to Aussie III course or other abundant everyday value, I just think that's going to help us in brand trust that's going to continue to foot into share as we move forward.

Thank you. And next question comes from Sara Senatore with Bank of America.

Great. Thank you. Just a clarification and maybe let's start with the question. The first is, you talked about focusing on remodels. I think previously the thought was that there needed to be relocations. And I guess my interpretation of what you're saying is that maybe the trade areas are fine, the locations are fine. It's more about the physical. The estate and maybe you could just sort of confirm the issue is less about not being in optimal locations because of maybe the an artifact of the historical approach. It sounds like so I guess that's the first question. If you're okay with the locations and the relocation strategy maybe gets set aside. And then I do have a quick question about margins. Sure. You want me to answer the first one? [indiscernible] Okay, sure. Relows are relocations are still very much part of the program. We like relos, it's just the reality of getting them done. How many we can get done. So it is relocations plus remodels.

Okay. And then on the margins, I guess the question I had was you talked about value in the OSC3 course. But if I look at the margin complexion, it looks like cost of goods were actually quite a bit lower than we expected. So going forward, should we think about the complexion of the restaurant level margins perhaps is changing with maybe higher cost of sales, but ideally leverage on labor and other Yes. I think as far as your our COGS will be relatively stable. Ultimately, as we think about the productivity we have built into plan, a lot of that is the majority of that comes through our supply chain. And so we're able to maintain COGS I think labor continues to have pressure with with our declining traffic. Ultimately, we do think the benefits of Allstate three course driving traffic in the restaurants There are leverage opportunities when that traffic turns around, but right now, I would expect COGS to be relatively stable Labor probably continues to tick down a little bit just with the inflation that comes throughout the year.

Okay. But you wouldn't expect over time that maybe your cost of goods need to be structurally lower as you reinvest in value.

Or structurally, I should say structurally higher as a percentage of revenues across the growth line.

No, I don't think so. I mean, I think ultimately, we'll we'll be able to drive traffic with that value. There's certainly some cost components there, but we also pick up other ancillary costs, plus our productivity like I said, sort of supports our COGS.

Great.

Thank you. And the next question comes from Ryan Vaccaro with Raymond James.

Thanks and good morning. Question was on the 2025 guidance and obviously a lot of moving pieces here, but I was hoping you could provide some guardrails on your store margin expectations for the year And could you just clarify, Sue, what level of investment did you embed in your guidance as part of the turnarounds?

Yes. Hey, Brian. I'll start with the first part, which is the investment The what I would say is that's the purpose of the test. That's why we're doing it. What I can also tell you is any have compelling returns And as you've seen, what we've already started this year is we can self fund through productivity. And we're going to be very sharp in our measures. Between traffic, guest satisfaction, intent to return, engagement of the outbacker, and our gross profit dollars. And as we work through the tests, we'll we'll absolutely go ahead and keep everyone posted.

And the only thing I'd add there is our restaurant level margins will have pressure from labor. And other restaurant operating inflation. As we think about going forward.

Okay. And I guess, could you also just shifting gears to the Outback lab restaurant, if we could, Could you just elaborate on some of the the nitty gritty sort of changes You've made that have either improved backup house efficiency or some of the guests that you can that one would notice.

Just some more on that. What's proving to be most promising? I know it's still early days, but just curious on that.

Yes, I'm not going to get into details for competitive reasons and I said, we're in test But what I will tell you is this, we are dialing in the quality, we're dialing into the value and we're dialing into the guest experience What gets me really excited [indiscernible] what I've seen the initial results are very encouraging, especially on traffic and especially on frequency of visitation from our loyals. They are coming more often. And what I know is our outbackers are really pumped about this. Our guests are very excited as they leave the restaurant. And that's why we're moving into test phase. And as we learn more, we'll be transparent in our results at the right time.

Okay. And then one last one, if I could. Talked about menu satisfaction and investing in higher quality specs, I think in your prepared remarks, Can you speak specifically to where or do you have line of sight [indiscernible] And are there changes you're making on So we're good. We feel good about our stake accuracy, our stake consistency, but we're always working with our supplier partners. There's a lot of technology out there. We're staying really close in terms of the size of cows specifically, what that means in the size of loins, and therefore what does that mean in terms of the specs and the tolerances And therefore, how do we then translate that into how we cook the platform, everything, the seasoning, the cooking standards, we got to meet guest expectations. I just think that's a very constant perfecting the known and getting better every time. That's what we're doing. And we look at it with our menu stats scores, we look at our ACR scores, we look at our consistency scores and we do that by protein type. Okay. And sorry, Mike, just one more quick. We're On the G and A guidance, think you said $225,000,000 for the year.

Correct me if I'm wrong on that, but just walking through that. So you have savings from Brazil, and then you have savings from the workforce reductions. But that's partially being offset by reloading bonuses and then $10,000,000 of IT investments. Did I get all that right?

That's correct. So there's $12,000,000 of the bonus reload. There's $10,000,000 of IT infrastructure investments some of that is Ziosk and then there's org design. And the next question comes from Ryan Mulan with Piper Sandler.

Okay. Thanks. Just a follow-up on that.

G and A question. I believe that would probably put you north of 5% of sales this year. So one, do we have that right? And then two, then two, if that's right, how would you plan to get down to that 5% of sales goal you Is that going to be entirely through revenue growth or is there perhaps more dollars you can take out from here after you've had some more time doing all of your strategic work.

Yes, you got it right. I mean the goal is 5%. We're not there now. We're probably in about a 5.5% to 5.8% range this year. And to get it right, you got to pack it both ways. The best way is to drive profitable sales and just become more efficient and leverage the assets. But we're always going to be more productive and we're going to be really prudent in our spending and thoughtful in our investments.

Okay. Thanks. And then question on capital allocation. In regards to the dividend change, if I'm understanding right, you frame that as mostly related to the Brazil sale and maintaining a payout ratio think more than anything else. My question is, as you look forward, and also try to execute on remodels and reducing balance sheet leverage, is further reducing the dividend on the table or should we think about this dividend, this is permanent now?

Yes. So it's part of our holistic strategy in terms of capital allocation. As Michael said, and we talked about it's one, we're going to focus on the base business.

That's number one. Two, we're going to go at the debt to get to that three point zero, we leverage ratio. And then the third is we're going to return cash to shareholders. And we thought the dividend, we think the dividend is the most reliable predictive consistent way to bring cash back to shareholders. And we're going to stay at that. And if that changes, we'll let you know.

Thank you. Thank you. And the next question comes from Dennis Geiger with UBS. Great.

Thanks guys. I just wanted to ask another one on how you envision the Outback value strategy As you move away from the LTO strategy and transition to that abundant value [indiscernible] as the answer there. Is there anything else to add sort of on what you been seeing from that promotion of late, maybe how incidents levels are trending there? Any other kind of customer feedback or behavior around the offer? And I guess related to that, just if anything more on how that the three core sort of addresses how you and your customer envisions Outback's value position and maybe the value shortfall in recent years? Thanks guys.

Yes, I got it. So I think it's all about brand trust. And it's all about frequency of visitation, getting one more visit of out of our guests. What we're finding with Aussie III course, and I found this with abundant everyday value over many years, you just create better guest trust. And they're visiting more often. And especially in the short term, we're meeting the guests where they're at right now, especially in this period of choppiness. As far as the experience, what's been really encouraging to me is think about the OSCI three course, you got the fourteen ninety nine, the point $99 the $2.99 although we're leading with that fourteen ninety nine, we are seeing a significant amount of guests trading up to that six ounce sirloin at 17.99 or the eight ounce sirloin at the 2.99. And that works really well on the P and L. The other thing we're seeing is in trading ops spend another $3 to get a Chalk of Thunder or the dessert they want. And to me, what it shows is the price benefit equation of value works with guests. And when you execute it works. And this is the other thing that's important.

It's part of our everyday menu offering. Our teams get it. They can get the groove in the back of the house and execute it and know they're going to execute it really well and deliver a great guest experience. Instead of creating the complexity of bringing in a new item every ten to twelve weeks. It creates more prep labor, becomes frustrating for our teams in the back of the house. It's confusing for our guests as well. So I feel really good about it. We'll obviously need to continue to monitor it like any offer I think there's always going to be the right periods of innovation we bring in, whether it's opening price points, or craveable items, I do think you need these hero items traffic driving items that work and we're finding right now. It works for the team, it works for the guests and it works on our P and L. L. Helpful. Thanks Mike.

Thank you. And the next question comes from Christine Cho with Goldman Sachs.

Yes.

Thank you for the opportunity. So firstly, I was wondering how your big [indiscernible] [indiscernible] how are you thinking about kind of balancing that kind of simplification of operations that including the menu reduction with that kind of renewing traffic momentum and maintaining a compelling value proposition.

What will be some of the areas of investment or optimization you would need at the store level across labor marketing and tech to achieve that goal? Thank you.

Well, Christine, what I found and what we found across the board is simplifying the menu you start one, you start with the guest. If it's a low mix item and it's perceived by the guest to be a subpar item, we don't want it on the menu. If it's then creating complexity, increasing our prep labor costs, As we simplify the menu, we're much sharper, we're much better in terms of the quality and the consistency of the experience with the guest. Enhances morale and it brings down our labor costs in the back of the house. So that's how we've been attacking this and we'll continue to attack it across all the brands. Thank you. The next question comes from John Tower with Citi. Yes, great. Maybe dovetailing onto that question. In terms of how you're thinking about investment into the business, do you feel like the stores particularly Outback, have the equipment in place that is necessary to pull off some of this menu transformation and you see yourselves needing to spend more money on training in the near term to to get employees up to snuff provide that guest experience you're looking for?

We have the absolutely we have the equipment in restaurant. We need to deliver a great guest experience and support the Outback or We're obviously always looking at technology that helps them to do their jobs simpler, faster, easier that also delivers a great guest experience and that as an example that was Ziosk. As well. We also have found remember, this is an important point about LTOs. There's a lot of training costs that go into driving LTOs. Because you got to ramp everybody up for ten to twelve weeks. So when you're at this everyday value abundant you get in a groove. You're just nailing execution, you're consistent in execution, and you can repurpose those training dollars. We're also the leaders. We got operational leaders and that means our leaders are going to be in the restaurant. They're going to be doing mid shifts, they're going to be doing them on Fridays and Saturdays. Coach and leading, that's a free dividend to training. And we're going to be all about that as well.

Okay. Maybe just kind of following up on that point of the LTOs here throughout the year, you feel like with that, you'll be able to perhaps even cut back on your marketing spend? Or I guess maybe flipping that around a little bit How are you going to communicate that everyday abundance value to consumers on a consistent basis without the message necessarily growing stale?

Yes, good question.

Well, first, I found usually consumers get far less tired with offers before usually company folks get tired with the offer. So I'll start there. Second, you're right. We are finding probably about a $10,000,000 save in marketing from non working because with LTOs, you've got all that non working, you're doing creative, you're putting out a new message. It just drives costs there. So the beauty there is we can decide are we going to reinvest that back into more marketing with great returns that drives profitable traffic if we don't feel good about that, we don't spend the money there. And that's going to be across all the brands.

Got it. Thanks for taking the questions.

Thank you. And the next question comes from comes from Andrew Stelzig with BMO.

Hey, thanks for taking the questions. I had two.

You touched on remodels and relocations, but I'm just curious as you kind of dug into the existing store base, how we should think about closures, whether that's in '25 or or beyond? And then the second question, based on the timeline of some of the initiatives taking place in the first half of the year, it seems like you'd be set up for a better back half.

At least from a top line perspective, from a comp perspective. But if I just use the midpoint of the 1Q guide, and the annual guide, it's it doesn't really reflect that. So So am I just getting caught up in ranges there? Are you implicitly assuming a better back half or are there some offsets to that that you're assuming?

Yes, got it, Andrew. Let me I'll start with the remodels and store base. You might be hitting on the impairment piece. What I would say there is we did have some underperforming assets and we've got action plans to improve the give the traffic movement, profitable traffic and profit growth and it's a leadership focus. We'll continue to assess them as part of a holistic strategy. And if there's a point we're not feeling good about that, then we got to decide if we're going to renew leases or not. So that's the first piece. On the the remodels and some of the underperforming stores.

Secondly, I think your point is around guide and your point around the second half.

We feel we're guiding appropriately given the recent trends, but as I said, we don't we do believe Aussie III course is going to give us more momentum in the second half. And as I said earlier, we are assuming the short term choppiness we've seen the latter part of Q4 and Q1, is there throughout the year. If that choppiness subsides, we get better momentum, which I'm hopeful we will. I don't see three course. And by the way, the other abundant everyday value that is going into bonefish and crab as well I'm hopeful that really gains traction. And then hopefully there's more to be had and we'll keep you posted on that.

Great. Thank you.

Thank you. And this concludes our question and answer session.

Would like to turn the conference back over to Mike Spanno, CEO for any closing remarks.

Thanks again for your time and we really appreciate the engagement. We look forward to further updates on our next earnings call.

Thank you. The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You