Caterpillar Inc. Price & Performance (CAT)

My name is Daniel Goroche, and I am the [indiscernible] and together with Michel Fisher, CFO and Head of Investor Relations, We will walk you through the highlights of the quarter and the full year of 2024. Are, as always, available on our website. I'd like to start the presentation with a brief overview of Catella starting on Page three. Today's Catella manages Catella billion in assets under management with a revenue base of SEK2.3 billion, and with operations in 12 countries and assets in 16 backed by nearly 500 employees. So we could flip to next page. [indiscernible] operate in three property focused business areas: investment management, Principal Investments and Corporate Finance. Although real estate has had a couple of challenging years recently, portfolio allocation to real assets is increasing. Nearly 70% of our income stems from fixed recurring revenue providing stability to the business as a whole. We see sustainability as part of conducting our business both through long term relationships with clients as well as through fund investments and investment projects. We manage our larger institutional investors' capital through funds and asset management mandates, and this is done through local teams with profound knowledge of their markets.

Leading us being a true vertically integrated Pan European player. And we have a history of over thirty five years And during that time, we've been established a pan European platform and a strong brand. So with that brief introduction, I'd like to start this quarter's presentation So we have had twelve quarters of declining or hesitant market We have noticed support for a recovering and growing market. As Q4 transaction volumes showed an increase of more than 20% year on year. Strongest growth was noticed in the Residential segment with a 45% growth year on year. And the trend in valuation of European real assets is that continues to stabilize. After over two years of negative value adjustments, lowered interest rates as well as opportunities for financing opening up, the market is now at the point where yields are becoming attractive. Significantly stronger and well founded interest in real estate investments is also something I and my colleagues are experiencing in our day to day operations. The increased activity level is seen foremost in a larger market, such as in UK and also in Sweden, whereas smaller markets in, for example, Finland Catella are experiencing limited market activity in terms of transaction volume.

So with that brief market backdrop, I'd like to move on to Page seven for some key financial and operational highlights. The quarter, improved market conditions are also reflected in our financials, as you can see, net revenue has increased by 39% year on year. EBIT increased almost by a factor of seven taking restructuring costs of €90,000,000 into account. This increase was even higher. Worth repeating is that the result is both an effect of improved market conditions as well as efficiency initiatives we have carried out over the two last years. [indiscernible] we then take a look into our business areas, there are a couple of things I'd like to highlight and we can start with investment management. Summarizing the year and the quarter, we have had a larger inflow of capital than outflow. Resulting in a positive AUM development And even though it's not on the historical growth rate, that we have become used to, we see this as a sign of strength. Ability to grow through asset management mandates with strong local teams managing underperforming assets and assets which require repositioning, proves the resilience of our business model. This in a market where capital inflows to our core property funds have been muted.

In UK, our seed investment capital from some two years back of £2,000,000 into strategic equities fund attracted capital from a large pension fund deciding to invest SEK1.4 billion. This is an [indiscernible] In Germany, we reached our milestone of €500,000,000 capital commitments into our logistics fund And logistics is an asset class which has performed well in this market environment that we have experienced. Also, in Germany, we finalized the merger of our two fund platforms into one creating Catella Investment Management in Baha with €10,000,000,000 in AUM and four twenty assets across 15 European countries. In France, Catella Aquila we acquired a majority of in 2023, onboarded the fund assets in France, which we now will be managing in house. So if you turn to principal investments, The sale of the French logistic development Pollexis was finalized in November, releasing liquidity at the marginal profits In Denmark, we invested in a new residential development project. And the investment is made together with a large international capital partner capping our total capital commitment to SEK83 million over the development phase, and securing long term mandate with recurring revenues and also at a attractive returns, 15% to 20% IRR on the invested capital.

And since I know that there will be questions on Cactus, I can say that all is progressing according to plan, even though as it is.

We are engaged in dialogues with investors and as market conditions are continuously improving, we stay positive that we will be able to close and transact However, at this stage, I cannot share any additional information of the [indiscernible] But I promise that we will get back with an update as soon as we have more specific information to share. For Corporate Finance, Total number of transactions as well as volumes increased year over year Specialty team in Spain was kept busy in the quarter and had a record quarter and year. Besides having efficiency improvements and cost adjustments, which are also reflected in our P and L and EBIT improvement, despite lower revenue we have also made some forward focused recruitments to capture growth in the returning markets. So before moving on to the business [indiscernible] for 2025 and onwards on the next page. Me, together with management, started to review our strategy during the autumn and had a discussion with the Board in December What we concluded when reviewing our current strategy was that we had many perhaps too many, ongoing future focused initiatives have been successful with some but really to advance our position going forward, we will need a more dedicated focus and fewer strategic priorities to secure the capacity and really focus on the how I. E. How to implement the strategies and priorities we see as the most important.

So following this review, we have landed in three overall strategic initiatives for the group. And the first one being to deconcentrate and to refocus principal investments Looking ahead, we are firmly committed to decrease the concentration, I. E. To increase the diversification investment portfolio. And furthermore, we have refined the criteria for new investments So the investments need to be smaller in size. They need to be more diversified as comes to asset class, geography and duration. And primary focus for principal investments going forward will be to support the growth of investment management AUM through new funds or mandates.

And also investments, holders shall be meet with a 15% to 20% IRR but could also be lower if it secures long and recurring fixed [indiscernible] So by narrowing down and focus the use of our own balance sheet going forward, our investments will fuel the growth of AUM and even further increases the growing cash flows. Secondly, Even though we made already significant efficiency improvements and strengthen our corporate finance organization, we believe that we can do more to improve the underlying profitability make sure to put the structure in place supporting growth. And here, I see a clear scope to create a better joint on business where we take advantage of our strong local organizations but at the same time, make sure to offer a seamless offering to our pan European clients.

And thirdly, besides refocusing principal investments, to support AUM growth, we need to continue to grow our existing funds as well as launching fewer but larger international scalable products. Should be supported by our own investment thesis, the Catella Houseview. So investment management is the main value driver of our business and it is, of course, extremely important that we continuously create products that are relevant and that are in demand from our investors. So with this as our priorities, we will continue to build Cattella based on our core competencies, capital and competence and by increasing AUM and fixed revenue over time, create sustainable and profitable growth.

Creating shareholder value.

So that was a little bit about the future strategy. We then move on to Page 10 to discuss investment management in detail. Since inception, this business area has delivered a strong average annual growth rate of nearly 20%. Despite the more cautious market and lower interest from four core fund investments, we show growth for the quarter and full year in assets under management. In funds, there was a net inflow, primarily driven by a large larger residential funds, Catella European Residential three, followed by Catella Vonen Europa and Catella Modernas Vonen.

We continuous interest from investors and finalized assets which have entered the funds. In asset management, some mandates reached majority and assets were sold during the year but a larger part of these were replaced by new long term mandates primarily in Finland, where AUM has nearly doubled over the year. These are new mandates with a new focus where we aid investors to manage underperformed defaulted assets reposition them and increase returns. And as I mentioned before, asset management provides good balance to our business model provides opportunities to grow in an environment where investor interest in core and core plus investments [indiscernible] In this setting, our pan European reach coupled with strong on the ground local market competence is something investors and value highly, and that is a true differentiating factor for us. Moving on to Page 11, So the increased transaction activity led to an increase of nearly 40% in variable revenues compared to last and is the driver behind the increase of nearly €40,000,000 in net revenues. OpEx ended at nearly €190,000,000 in the quarter, This was mainly driven by increase of transaction based variable expenses and one of restructuring costs. Amounting to 9,000,000 Taking this into consideration, we demonstrate a significantly lower fixed cost base compared to one year ago, And through the merger of our German fund platforms, we will further harmonize operations and increase efficiencies going forward.

Besides the continued strong focus of our efficiency improvements, we continue our efforts of retaining and growing our asset management looking ahead. Can now turn to next page for an overview of principal investments. So our principal investment portfolio consists of nine active projects at year end plus a few smaller seed investments and equity co investments in client aggregation mandates During the quarter, the logistic project Polaxis was sold, releasing liquid at a marginal profit. Furthermore, an additional milestone payments were received for the forward funded METS project, both strengthen our liquidity which has been a key priority for us to manage during this part of the cycle. We also entered into new products in accordance with our revised focus on principal investments. And in Denmark, as I mentioned, the investment in Vega will be made together with the large international capital partner and the structure caps our total capital commitments in 83,000,000 over the development phase. At the same time, it builds AUM and secures long term mandates. This investment is also made at attractive returns, some 50% to 20% IRR. The invested capital. [indiscernible] In Berlin, we have entered a similar product structure, but that is currently at an early stage.

I will come back on that further on. So all in all, in principle investments, we remain committed to our projects Then based on our financial position, we have opportunity to be patient and to protect value and generate shareholder returns. In parallel, we continue to review smaller investment opportunities as they emerge likely once we entered in Q4, with ambition to grow AVM, gain new revenues through asset management mandates and generate returns on equity. So let's focus on Corporate Finance now on Page 15. Net revenue was on par with last year, but with differences between between our different markets, Spain had a very strong quarter with our other four markets being at similar or lower levels. So even though net revenue was unchanged, EBIT came in stronger, highlighting the efficiency improvements being To reiterate what we have previously said is that our copper finance business area holds strong market positions in the five markets where we have operations And with a couple of new recruitments and increased cost efficiencies, the business area is now in a better position to be a highly profitable business as the market now returns. So I'll now hand over to Michel, who will share the brief summary beginning financial summary beginning on Page 17.

Thank you, Thank you, Daniel, and good morning, everyone. And to start by repeating what has already been mentioned, We summarize a strong end of the year in the fourth quarter with revenue top line mainly driven by increased transaction based revenues setting aside net revenue from the principal investment sales of Polaxys. When I browse through the analyst comment this morning, I noticed that a And as we've mentioned previously, we continue we have continuously throughout the year adapted to organization to a market with lower activity. At a first glance, OpEx increased for the quarter and full year but that was mainly driven by variable expenses. And also one off restructuring costs. Our main focus, as you know, has been to reduce the fixed expenses. And for the quarter, as you can see on the slide, these decreased by €33,000,000 And for the full year, 76,000,000 And this is before taking restructuring costs into account. Those amounted to €19,000,000 in the quarter. And €44,000,000 for the full year. Dollars 13,000,000 of that is what is highlighted in the report, and that relates to severance costs and the additional cost of €5,000,000 is related to the merger of our two German fund platforms.

Taking us to a total of 19,000,000 The corresponding figures for the full year the severance cost amounted to €28,000,000 and the cost related to the merger amounted to $16,000,000 summing this up to €44,000,000 of one off restructuring cost for the full year of 2024. So in summary, we conclude solid year on the recurrent market conditions. And taking the one off [indiscernible] into account, I would say that we end the year with more than solid [indiscernible] Also worth highlighting is that since 2022, we have managed to reduce fixed cost by over €200,000,000 as you also see. As also shown on the slide. Turning to net EBIT, it showed an improvement of NOK59 million and this then once again includes the one off restructuring costs of NOK 19,000,000. If we then have a look below the EBIT line, net financial ended SEK71 million better than last year. But this was mainly driven by FX tailwinds as the SEK depreciated during the quarter. Altogether, the last quarter of twenty twenty four ended significantly better than the last year at €59,000,000 and the same goes for the full year results of 30,000,000 If we then flip to page the next page, And here, after listening to feedback from some of our investors, we have refined our presentation of our net cash positions additionally.

Amongst other things, we have also included our fund investments in this [indiscernible] So end of quarter, the equity ratio our equity ratio stood at 37% and our cash position was €901,000,000 an increase from €870,000,000 last quarter. And 800 MW last year. And as I've mentioned on numerous occasions, [indiscernible] prudently maintain a strong balance sheet and cash position has been key for Catella throughout this market downturn. And the slide you see in front of you summarizes also how we look at our net debt or in our case net cash position. As you all know, by now, the overall majority of our liabilities are related to investments in development projects. These projects are in turn always valued at cost. So if we then start On the left, I move to the Right. Summarizing all our investments, these amount to approximately SEK 3,200,000,000.0. If we then on top of that add our current cash position of SEK900 million we reach a total of EUR 4,100,000,000.0. If we then deduct our market debt and financing of projects, and also adjust the cash position with working capital needs and bonus accruals this takes us to a cash position of 1.3 So the background for this ex exercise is, of course, the hypothetical scenario if we would divest all our current projects valued at cost and our fund investments, This would lead to a negative net debt, I. E. Excess liquidity after the debt being repaid.

And of course, in this hypothetical scenario, we would still have investment management and corporate finance as revenue generating businesses going forward. And to state the obvious, this is it's not our ambition to divest our our projects, and we will continue to invest in our existing pipeline. And also invest in new projects that meet the business areas' long term return requirements of 15% to 20% IRRs. And as Daniel mentioned, with a primary focus to fuel the growth of AUM in Investment Management. I think I'll stop there and hand back over to you, Deo.

Okay. Thank you, Michel. And before we conclude and open up for Q and A, I'd like to briefly summarize the quarter from our perspective. As Bruno have mentioned, Our whole view is that we have the worst behind us. And that the market will slowly start to recover from this point. Fueled by significantly improved financing conditions, lower credit margins and an active bond market, transaction volumes have already started to increase And we see an increased number of transactions as well as an increase in the average transaction size as well. As we previously discussed, during this hesitant period, we have taken decisive steps to decrease efficiencies and restructured and strengthened operations At the same time, as we have preserved liquidity and a strong capital position, both at group and at fund level. So with these efforts, Catella is in a better position today as the market slowly now recovers. So our key takeaways from this quarter is that we continue to do the right things and we make progress. First, we are very proud of and we see this as a sign sign of strength, as I mentioned earlier, being able to grow the assets under management with larger inflows of capital than outflows in this tough market context.

Further, we have managed to deliver a strong Q4 with increased profitability as a result of implemented cost efficiencies Further on, we have during the quarter, we have divested several projects within our principal investments portfolio in line with our strategy. These divestments support continued investments in attractive development projects as we mentioned, as effective from offices in the German fund business, into Catella Investment Management This move creates a €10,000,000,000 €10,000,000,000 investment platform where we will be able to enhance in synergies and share resources under one phase to the market. Lastly, are now operating under a new and refined strategy that is centered around the three strategic focus areas to [indiscernible] our investment portfolio within principal investments to increase our profitability within corporate finance and also finally to grow our AUM within Investment Management by growing existing funds as well as launching fewer but larger international scalable products. So all in all, we are satisfied where we are. We see that we are well positioned to reap the benefits of the continuously improved market and we remain committed to even even more focus on delivering improved results, thus increasing shareholder value. So with that, we end this presentation and I'd like to thank you all for listening and now open up for questions.

Five on your telephone keypad to enter the queue. Six on your telephone keypad. The next question comes from Patrick Brillius from ABG. Please go ahead.

Good morning.

Can you hear me?

Good morning, Patrick. Good morning.

Good morning. Perfect. Yes, a few questions from my side then. If we start off by looking at the corporate finance, it delivered a much stronger result than we have seen earlier in 2024. However, we know that Q4 and Q2 can be a little bit lumpy. Given it's where most transactions occur. So how should we think about the coming quarters here, can you, for example, elaborate a little bit how do you view the current environment compared to how it looks a year ago without guiding on any specifics on numbers because I know you don't like to talk about that, but more of the market environment and how that has changed? Yes.

Yes, of course. I mean, we have seen continuously improved market activity example, as I mentioned we have mentioned the transaction volume has increased month by month and also year over year.

For example, in let's take the Swedish example we have now in December and January seen transaction volumes increasing with 100% compared with the same period one year ago. So we see continuously improved environment even though we're still I mean a bit from the high levels. We had seen previously, but the trend is very, very positive. And that is fueled by, as I mentioned, by significantly better financing conditions. So and also you can see I think Nordics are a little bit ahead of the curve and you saw that transaction volumes increased by 30% in the Nordics last year, whereas the average in Europe was a little bit 20%, 22%. So we see a continuous [indiscernible] market with much more activity.

Sounds promising. Thank you. Moving over to Investment Management. We have seen negative revaluations effect on the asset under management for a couple of quarters in a row. When can we expect that to level out and disappear?

Well, I mean, once again, I mean, it's hard to make predictions, especially about the future. But where we stand now and our house view, we see these revaluations negative revaluations bottoming out. And we see think it was last quarter we mentioned that we saw the lowest levels of negative revaluations. That have been seen since this started over two years ago. [indiscernible] I would believe this sort of next quarter is where we bottom out of property values across Europe.

And to comment on that as well, I mean, we can see that the price sorry, I guess to add on that, that in the direct market, we are seeing price being corrected already. In certain asset classes, for example, in both logistics and also in residential, whereas valuations are lagging behind approximately six months, which is the case also this time. So you can see already in the direct market that this correction has already been taking place. [indiscernible] Thank you. And continuing on the drivers on asset under management. And inflow seems to have been SEK 17,000,000,000 in 2024, while the outflows was SEK 15,000,000,000. How do you expect these to develop? Because in In my thinking at least given the improving market environment, pick up in activity, all else equal it should lead to all of us equal more attractive dynamic mix where both is expected to increase while outflow to decrease on the back of this. Do you share this view? Or Are you should we expect similar levels and this to take a longer time before this translated into the AUM development in the coming quarters?

No, we share that view as well. I mean, with a more positive market and also with more capital coming into our business. We think that's really the case that we see more inflows and outflows will will decrease even though on European level, the fund business, I mean, the day near is not over. I mean, there are still some outflows in we see competitors that have outflows. So we need to look at that very closely. But on the year end level, I think the trend is positive on that as well.

Okay. Then taking those two answers into consideration, we should to significantly increase then the coming years compared to what we have seen for the last few quarters. Am I reading you correctly?

We are not making any predictions, but we hope for that as well. So we are planning for that. So that's hope that you're correct in your analysis.

Thank you. And then given this positive outlook on transaction activity, We usually see variable fees picking up but you have been a little bit more conservative when you have talked about performance fees in the past for 2025. Can you do you have an updated view on your expectations on this? Is this reasonable to assume '25? Or is that more something that could be expected later in 2026 perhaps?

Patrick, as you know, that is totally related to the market development. So as you know and as we've discussed previously, the majority of our funds have high watermarks, which we need to reach. Before performance fees are to be considered. So it's really connected to [indiscernible] value valuation of real estate across Europe. And I wouldn't be comfortable in predicting that for 2025.

So I have no clear answer to your clear and specific question.

That is fair. That is fair. And as a last question then, more on a broader strategic thinking, Following the Cactus divestments, which we expect to occur in twenty twenty five, how would you rank the priority of using this strength and liquidity that this Is it capital repatriation, or if it is acceleration with refocusing on principal investments? Can you please help to elaborate how you rank these priorities?

Well, it's not really for me or us to rank. I mean, at the end of the day, it's a board decision. But for you and the rest of you listening to know, I mean, all the points that you mentioned are, of course, things that need to be evaluated and we, of course, need to come up with what we think at least is the best position of liquidity usage So answer to that question. And we'll go back to you when we are in that.

Perfect. Thank you. And yes, if I squeeze in tiny question more is should we expect Cactus divestment in H1 or in H2 of 2025?

Believe me, we are putting all our efforts behind this project. And as we have mentioned, we are not a long term owner on the Cactus project. We will come back when we have something more to tell you. I We cannot really say anything more more than that.

Okay, fair enough. Thank Thank you. Thank you for taking The next question comes from Emil Janssen from DNB Markets.

Please go ahead.

Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. I'd like to start by just asking considering that interest rates have been falling for quite a while now, Have you noticed any recent change in how easy it is to attract new inflows in investment management?

Well, I think looking at the inflows versus out flows during the year, I mean, you should clearly see a trend. As you follow us quarterly that inflows have been stronger during the later part of of this year.

Which then gives an indication to your question. [indiscernible] At least part of that From my perspective, it could be from development projects being finished, which is otherwise not counted in AUM and shows up as an inflow, but has anything changed when it comes to attracting new capital from new investors?

Overall, it's I mean, it's improved environment, but I don't have any specifics on that. But overall, we see both on core and core plus that is interest, but also on, for example, in the add segment that is attracting a lot of attention and there is a lot of new capital coming in on the European arena. So As you say, as a consequence of the lower interest rates, the interest for these kind of investment vehicles are increasing.

All right. Thanks. And looking at variable fees in investment management, they were up quite a bit year on year. Looking specifically though at the transactions that occurred in your AUM, should we consider this more of a more of a coincidence, people wanting to get deals closed before year end and so on or and greater underlying proclivity to make transactions in your AUM.

Yes. So as what what Daniel started with today was showing the overall transaction markets that have increased 2% year over year in the fourth quarter. And a lot of the transactions which occurred during the fourth quarter, our transaction that we have considered during larger part of 2024. And now as the market turns, we can realize those. I mean, for example, Article nine fund buying, a green property in Madrid, their first investment in that Catella. And also divesting some properties, which also have been on the market. And for discussion, [indiscernible] I mean, altogether, as you see, increased transaction volumes and increased interest holding real estate as an asset. Your overall portfolio that of course benefits us as a whole.

All right. Thanks. And these $13,000,000 in severance costs during the quarter, Could you give some color on how much you expect that to ultimately shave off the OpEx line annually going forward? Is it $20,000,000 a year or more or less I mean, without the inflation adjustments, then you should consider the majority of mean, all else being equal, Emil. So with that severance payments going out, the majority of those have not been new recruitments replacing people that have left. So all else being equal, yes. But then, of course, if the market grows and as Catella grows, then of course, we need to grow with the number of employees as well.

Two, two, two, two, two, Yes. But all else equal, What's the magnitude of of the savings on the OpEx line I mean, here and now without making any adjustments and assuming the same work as we have seen, it would be nearly one to one. [indiscernible] as I mentioned, the majority of severance costs will also going forward be reflected and reduced cost. And you see that also if you look at the total number of employees. But once again, that is all else being equal and having a flat market from where we are now.

All right. Thanks. And another question the fact that the tax expense was so low in the quarter, is that just because of deferred taxes from from previous quarters when earnings were negative or is there something else? And what should we expect in terms of a normalized tax rate going forward.

So the first part of your question, the answer is yes. For the second part is, of course, I mean, assuming normalized tax [indiscernible] based on our European composition.

All right. And just a final question.

I know we've already talked about Cactus for a long time, but just one question.

Transaction of this size there would be a substantial due diligence process and so on. Now let's say that tomorrow you were to receive a bid that you're more than happy with, how long would it then take to go through the whole process and close the transaction? If approximately three months, I would say.

If you have in a normal transaction, if it's like a rather clean structure, transactional that this magnitude will take approximately three months. From the receiving of a strong offer.

All right. That's very helpful.

Okay.

Those are all my questions. But thank you very much. Thank you. Thank you, Emil.

As a reminder, There are no more questions at this time. So I hand the conference back to the speakers for any closing comments. Sure. Before I hand over to Daniel, we received one question online from Max Ottoxon.

Regarding the committed capital, and I guess that is capital commitments into investment management. And it's on the same levels as we have gotten used for or two over many quarters, CHF10 billion, SEK10 billion, approximately. It's been on those levels during quite some time now because it's been a market where it's been tougher to deploy that capital into assets going into the funds. So we have seen throughout these two years a bit of a lower inflow at the same time the investments into new assets into the funds has been slower. So it's been fairly stable. And hopefully, we can deploy that capital quicker going forward and also getting more commitments into our funds going forward.

Good.

All right. So thank you all for listening in. As we mentioned, we are really positive towards the the coming year here and we are now operating, as we mentioned, under our refined strategy. So we are looking forward to see you all again in next quarter and hopefully we'll be able to report some good quarter first quarter for 2025. So thank you all for listening and see you soon again.