Codere Online Luxembourg, S.A. Price & Performance (CDRO)

Operator, and welcome everyone to CoDARE online earnings call for the fourth quarter of twenty twenty four. Today, you will hear from our CEO, Aviv Schehr, and CFO, Oscar Iglesias. Turning the call over to Abib, I'd like to remind everyone that during this call, we will be referring to the presentation we uploaded to our website earlier today, which includes non IFRS preliminary and unaudited financial metrics such as net gaming revenue, adjusted EBITDA and constant currency figures. For which you can find reconciliations or disclaimers in the appendix of the presentation. These non IFRS financial measures should be considered in addition to and not as a substitute for our IFRS results. Please note that all growth rates discussed during this call year on year comparisons unless noted otherwise. Let me also remind you that our accounting information is prepared under IFRS accounting standards and that throughout this presentation all monetary figures will be in Europe unless expressed otherwise. Including those related to our net gaming revenue, and adjusted EBITDA outlooks. Which are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties including those discussed in our earnings press release and other documents filed with the SEC. Which could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated by these statements.

These forward looking statements reflect our current expectations based on our beliefs, assumptions and information currently available to us. Although we believe these expectations are reasonable, we undertake no obligation to revise any statement to reflect changes that occur after this call. Finally, please note that a replay transcript of this call will be available on our website at coedereonline.com Codere you can also sign up for our investor email alerts. With that, I will go ahead and pass the call on to Aviv. Thanks Guillermo and thanks to everyone for joining us today. It has been an eventful few months since we spoke at the November. So let me provide a brief update that everyone is up to speed on the latest developments. As you know, our former auditor, Malcolm, unexpectedly resigned in December but we were able to bring Malone Bailey on board as our new auditor before year end. This allowed us not only to hit the ground running, with them in the early January, but also to prepare and present credible plan to NASDAQ in our January 16 meeting. Which ultimately resulted in a NASDAQ granting us the maximum extension possible until May 12 to file our 23 annual report.

While this NASDAQ compliance issue has taken a lot more time and energy, than we would have liked. We believe that things are moving in the right direction and currently expect to file our twenty twenty three annual rebroad within the extended deadline. Appreciate your patience and support throughout this process and look forward to both putting this issue behind us as always continuing to deliver for our investors. Moving now into the highlights of the fourth quarter of twenty twenty four, On Page eight, we delivered EUR53 million in net gaming revenues, 5% above Q4 twenty twenty three as in the prior quarter net gaming revenue was negatively impacted by a weaker Mexican peso. In a constant currency terms, net gaming revenue would have been €57,000,000 in the fourth quarter, 15% above the prior prior year period. In terms of product mix, our Casino segment continued to contribution with 62% of our total net gaming revenue in the fourth quarter. Due to the seasonal decline in sport betting during December, as well as lower sport margin in Mexico throughout the quarter [indiscernible] primarily on the back of unfavorably 6% increase in our number of average monthly active customer while we were able to maintain an average monthly spend per active customer of around €120 In regard to customer acquisitions, we had seventy one thousand first time depositor in the fourth quarter.

A sequential uptick versus 67,000 acquired in the third quarter. This increase, together with a small decrease in the level of investment, to acquire the customers resulted in an average CPA In the quarter of €211 the lowest since Q4 twenty twenty three. [indiscernible] withstanding that the opportunity to invest in both Spain and Mexico continues to be very attractive. Our Board approved a one year share buyback plan for up to $5,000,000 We believe that the size of this plan is appropriate given our current cash position and expected cash flow generation [indiscernible] ample room for us not for us to not only continue investing in the business, if and when good opportunities do do so present themselves, but also to support our shares over the coming deals. Please note that under this plan, there is no requirement to acquire any specific number of shares and we may terminate the plan at any time. In terms of next steps, we will be sending out convened notice later today for a shareholder meeting to be held on March 3 to approve the plan before implementing. With this, will now turn the call over to Oscar to cover the financial highlights of the quarter and our initial expectations for with respect to a full year Thanks, Aviv.

Turning now to the financial performance for the quarter on Page 10.

Consolidated net gaming revenue grew by 5% to nearly $53,000,000 This was primarily driven by our Spanish business where revenue grew 10% to $23,000,000 In Mexico, given the currency and sports betting margin headwinds that you've mentioned earlier, net gaming revenue was flat versus the prior year At $25,000,000 Adjusted EBITDA was positive $1,900,000 in the fourth quarter and included a contribution of approximately $7,000,000 from our Spanish business. With this, we have reported positive adjusted EBITDA in each quarter throughout 2024 and $6,400,000 for the full year. Including a small but positive contribution from Mexico. As a reminder, country level results in 2024 include certain expenses that in 2023 were classified as undistributed B2B expenses. Making for difficult prior year comparisons at the country level. Looking now at our P and L on Page 11, the $6,000,000 swing in adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter was primarily driven by a $2,500,000 increase in net gaming revenue and a $3,000,000 reduction in total marketing spend. Turning now to the consolidated figure on Page 12, The 5% increase in net gaming revenue was driven by an increase in active customers, primarily in Mexico. On a constant currency basis, net gaming revenue would have been 15% instead of the reported 5%.

FTDs meanwhile dropped by 10% in the quarter driven by declines in both Colombia and Argentina. But also due to the comparatively lower level of total marketing investment in the quarter. Sequentially, however, FTDs grew 9% primarily due to strong results in Spain and Mexico. Despite this 10% decline in FTDs versus the prior year period, we had a 6% increase in active customers in the quarter. Which reflected our continued focus on and success related to the retention and reactivation of existing customers. [indiscernible] Turning to the Spanish operating and financial metrics. Net gaming revenue in the fourth quarter increased 10% versus the prior year driven by a higher spend per active together with a 3% increase in the number of active customers to 49,000. This quarter, we also had a 9% sequential increase in net gaming revenue, following two quarters of sequential declines on the back of adjustments we have made to mitigate the impact from the reintroduction of welcome bonuses in the second quarter twenty twenty four. [indiscernible] In Mexico, net gaming revenue was $25,000,000 in the fourth quarter, flat with the prior year period. The Mexican BISSELL devalued by 14% in the fourth quarter of twenty twenty four, resulting in a $3,400,000 headwind to our net gaming revenue.

This on top of the $3,000,000 impact in the third quarter. A constant currency basis, our net gaming revenue would have grown 14% notwithstanding the impact from a lower sports betting margin in the quarter equivalent to about two percentage points, mostly driven by unfavorable NFL results For context, American football is one of the top sports bet on by our customers in Mexico. And as we understand it, This was more generally a very customer friendly NFL season.

Separately, we ended the year with nearly 70,000 average monthly actives. 16% above Q4 twenty twenty three, and 8% above the prior quarter. As we have discussed in prior earnings calls, and notwithstanding the heightened competitive landscape, we continue to believe that the opportunity to invest and grow in Mexico is as attractive as ever. [indiscernible] On Page 15, we are including the evolution of the Mexican BISL against the Euro which while comparatively more stable in recent months, experienced a devaluation as we discussed earlier of 14% in the fourth quarter. Looking ahead to the first quarter of twenty twenty five, the exchange rate headwind will continue if not worsen slightly, as the pesos strengthened further throughout the first making for a difficult comparison this quarter. Turning to the balance sheet on Page 16.

As of December 31, we had €40,000,000 of total cash on the balance sheet. Of which approximately $35,000,000 was available approximately $3,000,000 less than where we ended the third quarter, due to $4,000,000 more of cash in transit with payment service providers going into year end and which otherwise normalized in the early days of January. In terms of our net working capital position, we ended the quarter with negative $17,500,000 or around 8% of our full year net gaming revenue which is lower than prior quarters as it reflects the continuation of a longer term trend of more restrictive trade terms with suppliers. Looking at our cash flow on Page 17, in 2024, we generated $100,000 of available cash partially offset by a $800,000 negative ex negative FX impact on ending cash balances. To the devaluation of the Mexican pistol, which was only partially offset by the positive impact from a strengthening U. S. Dollar on certain cash balances we continue to hold in that currency.

Moving on to our outlook for 2025 on Page 19, we are currently expecting to generate net gaming revenue of between $220,000,000 and $230,000,000 a 6% increase versus 2024 at the midpoint. While this range might look conservative after having grown more than 20 in 2024 we will be facing a number of headwinds this year beyond just the impact of a weaker Mexican peso throughout the first half of twenty twenty five. For example, the recently announced new tax on deposits in Colombia and a continuation of the less restrictive promotional environment in Spain. As usual, we will see how the first half of the year plays out and adjust accordingly if and when needed. Regards to adjusted EBITDA, we expect to end the year in the range of $10,000,000 to $15,000,000 as we otherwise continue to pursue a prudent balance between growth and profitability. This range reflects marketing investments, at levels similar to those in 2024 which we believe are needed to support future growth of the business. That's all from my end. I will now hand it back over to Aviv for closing remarks.

Thanks, Oscar. Before we move to Q and A, I want to thank Codere online team as always for their dedication and contribution to another great year As we look ahead to 2025, challenges are inevitable. But with our strong foundation, strategic vision and commitment of our team, I'm confident that we will overcome them and we'll continue to providing our customers with a safe and enjoyable online gaming experience and otherwise delivering strong results for our shareholders employees and other stakeholders. And as always, thank you to our thank our investors analysts and market participants for your interest, support and patience. With that said, I will turn it back to the operator to open up the call to Q and A. Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. And your first question comes from the line of Jeffrey Panchenl with Stifel. Your line is now open.

Good morning, Aviv, Oscar. Thanks for taking our questions. [indiscernible] just starting off here on guidance. Apologies if I missed this, but Oscar, can you just share with us what the pace of the euro assumption that's embedded in the 2025 guidance or guess looking at it differently, what the implied constant currency growth would be relative to the 6% as reported guidance at midpoint?

You're saying specifically on the Mexican vessel or as it relates to what we have included in our guide for twenty twenty twenty five full year?

As it relates to what you have embedded in the guidance, but I would assume any sort of dislocation between as reported and would be related to that.

I'd have to take a look. I don't have the numbers in front of me in terms of the the FX forecast or estimates that we have included in our 2025 figures, but we can pull that after this call and get that over to you so you have it.

Okay, great. Thank Oscar. And then maybe sticking on guidance, it looks like the implied flow through to EBITDA is about 46%. That's almost exactly what you realized in 2024 you are lapping some higher higher CAF UA around COPPA and euros and and there's some moderation in the NDR growth. So guess my question is, is that a function of conservatism around opportunistic user acquisition investment Is the Columbia VAT factored in here? Is there something else we should be considering from a cross perspective in 2025? Just any thoughts there would be great.

Yes, look, I think it's a couple of things. The first, as always, a especially going into 2025, mid year, we have this Club World Cup. I believe it's in the summer months. I don't know if it's June or July. Taking place. So there's lots of debate and planning that's happening as it relates to what we want to do around that event, what our objectives are, We do have at least two clubs that we sponsor that are playing in that in that tournament, both Real Madrid and Realvos out of Monterrey. So that this early in the year is also is always a reason for, let's say, generic conservatism as it relates to how we guide because the especially on the EBITDA front, the marketing investment is is a very determining factor in the ultimate outcome on that front. I think that's the key piece Aviv, I don't know if you have something to add in that regard.

No. No. At the moment, no.

Yes. And Jeff, on the Colombia front, for sure, the Columbia is one that even though it's a small part of our overall business, I think every year even smaller, it's still still a significant issue that we're still working through this is a relatively recent announcement, executive decree I'm sure that those of you that followed Rush and a few others have have already seen some of this information, but it's the imposition of a tax on deposits. So this is something little bit different than what we've seen in other markets. We're still assessing how we would go about doing that in terms of collecting that VAT from a technical standpoint or otherwise to the extent permissible absorbing part or all and what other mitigating factors we have. So this is not going to be an overly material issue for us given the size of of our business in Colombia, but it's an important one and one that we have to deal with. And obviously, is one that is going to condition going forward our appetite to continue investing. Even if we're investing at lower levels, I think we're going to have to see how this all plays out and then take decisions.

So that is playing into a little bit to some extent our guide with respect to full year, which is a little bit of a tighter range than we typically would put out this early in the year. But until that plays out, the constitutional challenge, which invariably will come over the next hopefully month, or month or two. But once we see how that plays out and whether the tax will be in effect throughout the full year, and again, I think we have to be conservative in assume that this isn't necessarily going to be a temporary tax that this might a more durable staying power So we are definitely being a little bit conservative on that front, even if [indiscernible] is a small part of our overall business. I think these days is something like 6% of our total NGR.

It's a huge, huge tax.

Yeah, it's a massive tax.

It's not it's a I think it will become very hard to operate The black market will flourish. I hope the regulator will realize it fast enough. Because basically it's pushing players to to play in the non regulated environment instead of encouraging them to play in a regulated environment and enjoy the gaming tax, So basically, I think companies at some stage will will impose those taxes onto the players and eventually they will have less money [indiscernible] once they realize it, it's it's an easy way to go to the black market and basically get get the value that you want to play with with those players.

Right. That's perfect. That's all really great color. If I could just squeeze in maybe just one more. Maybe you talked about CAC, I think it's €211 during the quarter. That's down both year on year and sequentially even though if I recall correctly, Viv, you've talked about some competitors coming into both of your markets and creating some upward pressure here. So I guess, could you just add a little bit of color here? Is this kind of just general better efficiency or sort of how should we think about some of the drivers of improving CAC that you're benefiting from? And that's also most. Thanks.

Yes.

So So I think a few things happened together. In Mexico, mainly I don't know why, but I think some of the competitors has slowed down their investment a little bit in the fourth quarter and we are enjoying it. Another thing is that we solved a few let's call it small technical problems that we had. In terms of tracking, and our ability to identify How good we are buying or how good we are investing our marketing money It all happened on the fourth quarter, and we see the results that the CPA is going down a bit. So it's a mix. I don't know which which one is stronger force, But we solved some technical issues or manage to crack and to be better in our marketing investment decision making, plus a little bit less competition in Mexico in the fourth quarter. So I think I think it helps us a little bit.

Great. Thanks very much. Shneesh, Oscar, I'll pass it on.

Your next question comes from the line of Ryan Sigdahl with Craig Hallum Capital Corp. Your line is now open.

Hey, good day, Aviv. Oscar. I wanted to say on the competitive dynamic. You mentioned Mexico, but the recent launch of Brazil, I know you guys aren't directly there, but have you noticed any of your competitors maybe moving some of the resources, focus, etcetera, onto that market, which has benefited you guys? Potentially some other dynamics on why that competitive intensity is going down?

I think Mexico, if you look at it, let's call from a macro level, is a very lucrative market. But once you enter it, You see that it's not that easy to operate there. And you need a huge okay, huge investment, not in Compel to Brazil, of course, but still you need huge investment in order to build your brand? You need to know how to operate locally And I think some of the competitors let's call them the European competitors that came in, I think at the moment did not succeed as well as they thought. Probably they saw success in other markets, maybe in LatAm. And I think right now, they lost a little bit of focus into this Mexico Market a little bit because we all know that the World Cup is coming next year. And I think all the competitors will come back again and we'll try again to penetrate the market. So it's not that the competition has left, but I think they took a short break maybe. In the next few quarters. And it's an opportunity for us. We are taking advantage of that.

Very good. You mentioned in the prepared remarks a similar level of marketing spend in 2025 versus 2024. Is that market specific or overall? And can you split that between Spain and Mexico?

Yes, that would be total the total marketing spend in $25,000,000 being at similar levels to what we we ultimately spent in 2024. We don't give country by country breakdowns, but I would say the trend that we've had in the last couple of years even though 2024, there was a strong investment in Spain, especially on the back of some of the some of the restrictions falling away and additional promotional abilities to promote to our customers, Codere half of that is still Mexico. Thanks Ryan. Your next question comes from the line of Michael Kupinski with Noble Capital Markets. Your line is now open.

Thank you. I have a couple of questions. In terms of just go back to Mexico, were there other factors that contributed to the to the fact that you had the lowest revenue and adjusted EBITDA quarter in that segment. Outside of timing of the impactful sporting events and exchange rate headwinds, were there anything else that may have affected the results there?

Yes, I would point to just looking at the fourth quarter specifically and even though that the [indiscernible] The CPA performance for the quarter overall was was very good. I think what more importantly what we gained throughout the quarter is momentum both in but in Mexico specifically going into December especially we saw that that was really the driver to some of the lower acquisition, the CPAs that we were were seeing overall were really being driven by Mexico, but that was later in the quarter. There was momentum building within the quarter. You're not necessarily seeing those in the numbers. And that's continued into 2025. So January, is a month where we've gotten off to a good start. That momentum we saw, that I think Avid mentioned briefly in terms of what we're seeing in terms of others maybe lifting their foot off the pedal from a marketing spend standpoint that we carry through into 2025.

Got you. Thank you for that color. You provided a market overview in which provides some dynamic growth opportunities for your company as you expand in other markets. And I was wondering, if you can talk a little bit about that and whether or not your outlook 2025 includes growth investments outside of Mexico Then as I look at your market overview, your Brazil and Argentina obviously represent some big opportunities for you, but there are a couple of other countries in there that have what I would call outsized growth, I guess, from virtually zero in 2023 and that includes Peru and Chile. I was just wondering if you can kind of give us your thoughts about your growth investment spend. You kind of look into 2025 and maybe 2026 as you kind of prepare for the dynamic shifts that we'll see in terms of revenues coming from online in some of these other regions. [indiscernible] Aviv, do you want to type Yes, let me start. I just want maybe just a small comment on your previous question regarding the the results of the fourth quarter You you have all of you probably to understand that we are facing almost 20% on a yearly basis of a headwind from the currency exchange in Mexico.

So let's say even if I'm reporting that, let's say, zero growth, it's almost 20% on a yearly basis in a nominal numbers. So I think our nominal results in Mexico are quite okay and we are showing and meeting the goals that we we set to ourself internally, for example, we didn't miss any of our predictions. So I think the numbers here in euros terms are a little bit misleading in that sense because in terms of nominal numbers in Mexico, we are doing okay.

Of course, well noted. Thank you.

Yes, yes, yes, it's not it's a little bit misleading. It's not we didn't have a slow quarter. [indiscernible] We just say the Forex is killing us. In that sense, it can also help us It helped us in the past, a year before. So I hope maybe all the situation with Trump and macroeconomics also have an influence here in this kind of For sure. In terms of your other question about other markets and opportunity, I will note several things. First of all, the Brazil opportunity is still too big for us to go for it We did look into several potential partnerships time and we're waiting a little bit to see what's going to happen in this market. As we know there were a little bit problems in the launch We know that people are coming with hundreds of millions of marketing budget. So we are sitting on the bench a little looking what happens Other markets, the problem that we are facing right now that if I want to increase my marketing expense, my next dollar still in terms of ROI should go into Mex we and we know the ROI on it It's when we are analyzing the figures, it doesn't make sense to put the next dollar into Chile or Peru at this point of time we still have room to grow in our current, let's call them, core markets that that generate very nice ROI.

In the And the amount of money that let's say is available for us to penetrate a new market to turn a new market into a significant market. So the next maybe €10 or €15 I can still effectively invest in our current markets Without taking risks in that sense. So I think new markets, we are always looking, we are also looking for part But I think in the short term, we are still we still want to grow in our core markets where we are seeing very, very good ROI and good success in the actions that we are taking. Aviv, thank you for the color. One country that you didn't mention was Argentina, which wondering, can you give us an update on your thoughts there?

Yes. Argentina was maybe let's call it our core market unfortunately and we made a lot of efforts we are not able to at the moment to enter to the province of Argentina where is the majority of the money in the country is coming from, and we are not able to grow our business there based only on the city. We have good results but not good enough So until we are able to figure out and we are trying constantly to figure out how to get a province license, Unfortunately, we cannot grow Argentina. Hopefully, maybe in the coming year, Some operators over there will be willing to send their license We are looking into that. But at the moment, cannot make big moves over there. We really want it to be our third core market. We wanted, we made a lot of efforts but up until now, we couldn't deliver on that front.

All right. Thank you for that color. I really appreciate it. That's all I have. Thanks, Mike.

As for now, I'd like to turn the call over to Mr. Guillermo. You may begin.

Yes. So we have no questions on the webcast. [indiscernible] So I guess we can we can conclude the call here. If anybody would like to to follow-up on any of the topics we discussed, feel free to reach out. And otherwise we will be speaking again with our Q1 twenty twenty five earnings around mid May. Thank you very much.

Thank you.

You may now disconnect.