Century Aluminum Company Price & Performance (CENX)

Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to the conference call. I'm joined here today by Jesse Gary, Century's President and Chief Executive Officer. [indiscernible] Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer and Peter Trebkoski, Senior Vice President of Finance and Treasurer. After our prepared comments, we will take your questions. As a reminder, today's presentation is available on our website at www.centuryaluminum.com Century. We use our website as a means of disclosing material information the company and for complying with the Regulation FD. Turning to Slide one. Please take a moment to review the cautionary statements shown here with respect to forward looking statements and non GAAP financial measures, contained in today's discussion. And with that, I'll hand the call to Jesse. Thanks, Ryan. Thanks to everyone for joining. I'll start today by quickly reviewing our full year 2024 performance. Before discussing our Q4 performance and the strong market conditions we are experiencing so far in 2025. Jerry will then take you through the details of the results, our first quarter outlook, Then I'll finish with a discussion of the recent U. S. Section two thirty two tariff announcements before turning the call over for questions Century produced strong results in 2024, generating adjusted EBITDA of $245,000,000 for the year and $82,000,000 for the fourth quarter.

Overall, strong realized aluminum prices, both at the LME and regional premium level, and low energy prices, drove increased profitability in the fourth Aluminum prices averaged $2,575 for the quarter, rose further in Q1 to date. With spot LME trading above 2,700 Midwest Premium trading near $0.39 today. Turning to Slide four, Indy Hub power prices continue to be Cold snaps in January and February have led to higher U. S. And European gas and energy prices so far in 2025, And we've experienced some of this normal seasonality in our power prices at Seabree in the first quarter.

Turning to Page five, as you can see in the top left graph, strong global demand and continued constraints on new global supply expected to move the global market into deficit by over 600,000 tons in 2025. Global aluminum supply remains challenged with China approaching its 45,000,000 tonne production cap and limited announced new projects outside of China. We believe demand growth will continue to outpace supply in '20 With inventories again at multiyear lows, of forty nine days, Western demand growth in 2025 should be supported of higher aluminum prices as we move forward in the year inventories continue to deplete. Aluminum supplies also remained tight in Q4 driving API alumina prices to all time highs in late November and early December. Aluminum prices have retreated somewhat in 2025, with spot API trading today around $5.00 $5 Our Jamalco acquisition and LME linked commercial contracts continue to serve us well during this period of alumina price volatility. During Q4, one of our major alumina suppliers declared a force majeure which reduced deliveries under one of our supply contracts and required us to procure some spot API alumina in Q4. Fortunately, we were able to reach a financial settlement with the supplier that fully offset the additional costs of these spot cargoes.

Please just note that the $12,000,000 benefit from the financial settlement was booked in Q4 while the offsetting one time costs associated with the replacement material will not roll through our results until Q1 due to FIFO accounting. Just to wrap this up, the FM was limited to Q4 and we do not expect any further impact from this beyond Q1. You can continue to use our 50% Jamalco and fixed and 50% LME linked alumina sensitivity numbers for Q2 and beyond. On Page six, you can see our other raw material price inputs continue to be constructive. But we did see some uptick in coke and pitch prices as we enter 2025. Caustic prices in HFO continue to be at levels that are very constructive. [indiscernible] Turning to operations. Across the [indiscernible] Starting with Seabree, 2024 represented one of the smelters finest operating years ever. Delivering strong results across their operating KPIs. We are very proud of the fine assets that the team has created there. Mount Holly did suffer some minor operational instability in Q4 as an excursion on the carbon side of the business increased operating costs and drove slightly lower production across the plant. The management team there has this issue well in hand and we expect the plant return to normal performance over the course of Q1.

At Grunder Tange and Jamalco, respective teams delivered excellent operating quarters and Jamalco notably is off at the highest monthly levels since we purchased the plant.

The Gemalco team continues to focus on improvement both through operational optimization and execution of our multiyear CapEx program that will aim to increase production at Jamalco towards 1,400,000 tons of capacity. In Q4, the Gemalco team took action to rightsize its workforce by implementing a 5% reduction in the plant's headcount. This step was necessary to lower the plant's labor expense and increase productivity and continues our progress towards Jamalco's goal of producing in the second quartile of the cost curve. Our evaluation process at Hawesville made good progress. With strong interest and lots of due diligence ongoing. We will keep you updated on progress here as we move through the year. Wrapping up with some very good news out of ICE. Recent rainfall and stronger than expected snow melt has improved reservoir levels in the hydro power schemes on the island. Given these improved reservoir levels, National Power Company ended the power curtailments to Grundy Tongue in mid February. The curtailments had originally been expected to last through May. The plant is now in the process of restoring operations to full production will have a partial benefit in Q1 and should result in full production levels for Grundyotonga in Q2.

The positive financial impact of the additional volume guidance. Jerry will now walk you through the details on the quarter and our Q1 Thank you, Jesse. Let's turn to Slide seven to review fourth quarter results. On a consolidated basis, fourth quarter global shipments were slightly lower than last quarter due primarily to year end cut off timing of shipments. Net sales for the quarter were $631,000,000 an increase of $92,000,000 sequentially. This was driven by higher third party alumina sales volume, along with higher aluminum prices and regional premiums.

Adjusted net income was $46,000,000 or $0.49 per share. The main adjusting items were add backs of $5,000,000 for share based compensation and $2,000,000 for lower of cost or net realizable value on inventory partially offset by a $6,000,000 deduction for the unrealized impact of forward derivative contracts. Looking at Q4 operating results, adjusted EBITDA attributable to Century was $82,000,000 Liquidity was $245,000,000 to end the fourth This consisted of $33,000,000 in cash, and $212,000,000 available on our credit facilities. Our liquidity position remains near target range, but decreased last quarter primarily due to working capital dynamics within alumina sourcing. Turning to Slide eight to explain fourth quarter sequential improvement and adjusted EBITDA on a normalized basis. As a reminder, the Treasury Department published final 45x rules addressing carbon and other operating supplies in Q3 as a result, we recorded an incremental tax credit to to true up the full year 2023 and year to date 2024 periods in the third quarter. [indiscernible] Normalized adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter improved $9,000,000 realized LME of $2,462 per ton was up $11 versus prior quarter.

While realized U. S. Midwest premium of $436 per ton was up $15 and European delivery premium of $341 per ton was up $6 Together, higher metal prices and regional premiums contributed incremental $4,000,000 compared with the prior quarter.

We also realized favorable energy costs adding $2,000,000 be EBITDA In addition, as Jesse discussed, we recorded a $12,000,000 benefit after reaching a settlement with the regarding a force majeure supply disruption in Q4. These benefits were partially offset by unfavorable other raw material costs of $3,000,000 and higher operating spend at Mount Holly, a headwind of $5,000,000 With that, let's turn to Slide nine for a look at cash flow. We began the quarter with $33,000,000 in cash. Adjusted EBITDA contributed $82,000,000 Increased borrowings of $42,000,000 was used to support the working capital build. Capital expenditures totaled $13,000,000 Interest and taxes were $14,000,000 and $9,000,000 respectively.

The fourth measure of settlement was recorded in adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter Finally, the regular 45x techs credit booked in the quarter increased the tax credit receivable on our balance sheet. Until direct cash payments from the federal government are received.

Through December 31, we have a $45 ex receivable Dollars in cash. Let's turn to Slide 10 for Insights IndoorX For Q1, the lagged LME of $2,575 ton. Is expected to be up about $113 versus Q4 realized prices. The Q1 lagged U. S. Midwest premium is forecast to be $600 per ton up $165 approximately one month lag for the recent significant premium increase will be reflected primarily in Q2 results. The European delivery premium is expected at $345 per per ton or up about $5 per ton versus the fourth quarter. Taken together, the lagged LME and delivery premium changes are expected to have a $35,000,000 to $40,000,000 increase to Q1 EBITDA compared with Q4 levels. Normal seasonality will impact power prices and should be in a after a mild start to winter in Q4. We expect carbon and other material prices to increase by $5,000,000 The force majeure notice from one of our alumina suppliers caused us to purchase some alumina cargoes at spot prices during Q4. The additional cost of these cargoes was fully offset by a $12,000,000 financial settlement that we reached with our supplier in Q4. Note the benefit of the financial settlement was realized in Q4 but due to FIFO accounting, the higher cost of the cargoes will flow through our results in Q1.

So while we are showing a one time $10,000,000 to $15,000,000 aluminum headwind in Q1, The impact of this was really offset by the financial settlement recorded in Q4. To be clear, we do not expect this will repeat in Q2 or beyond. We will incur approximately $5,000,000 of higher OpEx from pot reline costs to return to full pot complement at Grundertonge and trailing restructuring costs associated with the Jamaco workforce changes. Fineman mix will add an incremental $10,000,000 benefit. All factors considered, our outlook for Q1 adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in a range between $75,000,000 As previously discussed, this outlook does not include the full quarter impact of the significant increase in Midwest regional premium. Since the announcement of the revised Section two thirty two tariffs. Using the sensitivities provided in our appendix, you can see that this will have a significant effect on the profitability of our U. S. Business. With each Century of increase in Midwest premium equating to an additional $9,000,000 of EBITDA on an annualized basis. When you apply that to the nearly $0.2 increase we have already experienced since Q4 you can see the material impact of this action on our American operations.

Please just remember that due to our contractual pricing agreements, Midwest Premium will run through our financial results on a one month lag. Which means the vast majority of the benefit from the increased Section two thirty two tariffs will not hit our financial results until Q2. Now referring to Slide 11 for the full year 20 financial assumptions. We expect shipments to improve to 700,000 tons in 2025 As all plants operate at targeted utilization levels, We expect to spend approximately $45,000,000 to $50,000,000 in sustaining Cap This is in line with historical sustaining CapEx for the smelter assets and now includes Jamalco. We also plan to invest $25,000,000 to $30,000,000 in various projects across the asset base that meet or exceed our return threshold. The investment CapEx will focus on improving operating efficiencies at Jamalco and our current U. S. And European facilities. The impact of the hedge book will vary with market conditions throughout the year, But to assist with anticipating these impacts on a go forward basis, we have updated our previously reviewed financial hedge landscape which can be found on Page 16 in the appendix. With that, I will hand the call back to Jesse.

Thanks, Jerry. Turning to Slide 12, I'd like to end the prepared portion of our call by thanking President Trump for so quickly taking action to strengthen the Section two thirty two tariffs alumina. When President Trump originally created the Section two thirty two program in 2018, '18, it allowed The U. S. Aluminum industry to steady itself and begin to invest again in U. S. Production. We were proud to do our part As we invested in U. S. Production and became the largest producer of primary aluminum in The United States. Unfortunately, after President Trump left office, the effectiveness of the program was degraded through a number of country exemptions that allowed foreign producers to bypass the program and even increase their import to all time high levels. Including imports from exempted countries increasing by over 25% since 2018. Effective March 12, President Trump's actions will restore the original effectiveness of the Section two thirty two program by revoking all country and product exemptions and raising the tariff rate from 1025%. The effects of President Trump's action is beginning to be reflected in the Midwest premium, which has already risen from the $0.2 we realized in Q4 to $0.39 spot today.

We believe that the Midwest premium has room to increase further following the effective date of the program in March. As the largest producer of primary aluminum in The United Century is doing its part to build and secure the aluminum production that is so essential to U. S. National security needs. When complete, our new smelter project will represent the in fifty years and will double the size of the existing U. S. Industry. The new Century smelter will build on our leading market position to fulfill the ever growing strategic need for a secure American supplier of cutting edge primary aluminum alloys, and value added products. The new Century smelter will also provide our U. S. Customer base with a secure domestic source of military grade primary aluminum, as well as a full suite of value added products produced with best in class The news melter will create over 1,000 full time direct jobs and over 5,500 construction jobs here in The United States. We continue to make good progress on the project having completed the second phase of engineering work and nearing completion of site selection and energy supply negotiations, We are grateful to President Trump and his administration for recognizing the vital importance of a strong domestic primary aluminum industry to U. S. National security.

These actions will help to underpin further investment in our industry strengthen domestic supply chains and ensure The U. S. Industry will be able to meet U. S. Needs for this critical mineral. With that, we are ready for your questions and we'll turn the call over now to the Our first question comes from Nick Gals with the company B. Riley. Nick, your line is now open.

Thank you very much, operator, and good afternoon, everyone. Guys, congrats on all the progress here as of late. My first question is, you noted that the more recent rise in Midwest premiums won't be reflected until 2Q. And I was wondering if you could help bridge us to your earnings power in the current environment. I believe Midwest premium in your 1Q guide versus spot today could imply an annual impact of around the $100,000,000 So wanted to confirm that and see how we might think about other moving parts Thanks a lot.

Yes. First, Nick, congrats on the new role. Go Second, good question. So yes, where we see Midwest go, maybe just to start with, so far we've seen Midwest go from the $0.2 we realized in Q4 to the $0.39 we're seeing in spot today, And in our Q1 outlook, we've assumed a realized Midwest premium of $0.27 So if you take it to spot, you're right in the ballpark where that could be. And ultimately, we think that Midwest premium will go higher. We don't think it's fully reflecting the value of the tariff today. And we could see another $0.05 to $0.1 upside to what you see today. So if you take that altogether, you could see about $0.2 upside From where we are today, call it $0.2 to $0.25 from what we've assumed in the Q1 guide.

Excuse me, sorry, 2020 to '25 from what we realized in Q4, looking somewhere in the $0.45 to $0.5 range on a [indiscernible] Got it. Got it.

Jesse, I really appreciate that. And maybe as a follow-up, I was hoping to get an update on how you're viewing a potential Mount Holly restart given current Midwest premiums and the implication of two thirty two tariffs. And then I had the same question for for Hawesville. Has this impacted your ongoing strategic process? Thanks a lot. Yes, sure. Great question, Nick.

So obviously, since the announcement, was just last week, We have been updating our analysis at Halle. Obviously, the tariff program is extremely constructive. For the smelter. As we mentioned, we did experience a little instability in the operations in Q4. That will get cleaned up over Q1.

And we also see continued high spot aller prices. Those should also come down So we'll continue to update you, but we're definitely moving in the right direction for a restart at Newhall. The Hudgel prices continues valuation ongoing. We've seen strong continued interest in the site. But obviously we'll continue to look at the new environment as we make a decision of what to do there. But as we said before, I think first to come will be the now holiday restart and then we'll go from there. Got it. That's great to hear. Maybe one more if I could. Maybe a more point of clarification. The 1Q guide is almost taking a double hit from the non recurring settlement plus the alumina spot purchase given the lags as you outlined. And it fair to assume that this kind of negative 10% to $15,000,000 hit will reverse in 2Q or am I thinking about that wrong? No, you're absolutely right, Nick.

And there's just a little bit of accounting noise running through that. Couple of ways of looking at it. One, if instead of booking the financial settlement in Q4, you booked that in Q1, you actually wouldn't see a headwind in the Allied price in Q1.

Those do fully offset, as Jerry said, And secondly, you're completely correct. You won't see that repeat in Q2. So that should all come back in Q2.

Guys, I really appreciate all the color. So again, congrats on the progress and continued best of luck. Thanks, Nick.

Next question comes from CatraZeneca with the company [indiscernible] Maybe going back to Mount Holly if you do decide to restart it, how long it would take you and what would the investment needed be?

Yes. So we're updating all that analysis As I said, since the news came last week, as we've said before, you're probably looking at somewhere around nine month timeline from decision to restart, somewhere in that range. And we'll give you an update on the cost of a restart once we make that decision and announce the restart. Maybe if I remember correctly, when you were restarting the pipeline, at HOSPITAL a few years ago, Did it cost about $45,000,000 to $50,000,000 per part line? Am I remembering that correctly?

Yes, that's not exactly what it was. But again, there's obviously been a lot of changes since 2018 when those restarts were done for about seven years down the line. [indiscernible] we'll just go ahead and give you that full analysis once we've made the decision at Mount Holly.

And maybe you mentioned the new smelter, you're making progress there. And I know that this is a multiyear type of project. But can you talk a bit more about how much it would actually cost to build a new smelter in U. S?

Yes. We have made really good progress on on the new smelter. We've in January, we finished up the process to finalize the terms of the award and when formally under award with the Department of Energy, for the $500,000,000 grant that we've talked about before We've also finished up the second phase of engineering work for the project. And really the next step for the project will be to finalize the energy contract negotiations and site selection, which is ongoing today. And we'd expect that gets done by the end of Q2 or so. So we'll give you a further update on that project after we've made that finished that work and made a decision to move forward into the next step.

Okay. Thank you. Our next question comes from Timna Tanners with the company Wolfe Research. Timna, your line is open. I wanted to kind of hit back on some of the topics that have been put on. There. So I guess to circle back on Hawesville, just the one sentence in your prepared remarks that made me wonder is there less conviction on that process Do you have anything in terms of timing or progress that you can update us on, And just to circle back, it is it is possible that it restart or are you pursuing this alternative 100%?

Not at all. No nothing to read into that update. Other than the process continues to be going well. Very strong continued interest in the site and lots of people doing due diligence. As I said on the last call, it is a complicated process. And it's a little bit different than some of the other transactions that you've seen done in the space. We're here, we're going from an industrial site to a potential different use case. And as you might imagine, given the capital scale of what a potential purchaser would be looking at, they want to do their due diligence first And so that's really ongoing. Process is still going well. And we'd expect to continue to keep you updated To the second part of your question, Tim, what we've said all along is we will always measure Whatever comes out of this process versus the potential value of the site, under our restart scenario. And obviously, the recent actions will help the second part of that analysis. So we'll just go ahead and pursue the process. And once we've finished it, we'll give everyone an update. Nothing to read into. Process continues to go well. And we're excited about it.

Okay. That's great. Appreciate the additional color. Also really enjoyed the Invest industry environment forecast that you have here for Midwest Premium staying high alumina prices those are helpful. In the assumption here, with that, that does include a 25% Section two thirty two effectiveness on March 12.

But is there any assumption of an additional tariff on Canada? Is that in your thought process of what could play out going forward with that debate or I guess that dialogue is ongoing?

Yes. We continue to watch that dialogue as well. And just to be clear, that's not included either in our guidance or sort of my views on where Midwest premium can go that I gave when we were speaking to Nick earlier. We think fundamentally if the 25% tariff goes on, you'll see a Midwest premium somewhere in the $0.45 to $0.5 range. And that does not include any other additional tariffs that may come.

Okay, helpful. And then last one from me. It's Jamalco, you've been talking about expanding in this alumina environment. That sounds great. And I think that would be part of the support for Matt Polly. So just want to make sure I'm thinking about that properly. Deb, you talked about the capital cost timing for that expansion?

Yes, we have and just to remind but just to remind you, so the investment CapEx at Jamalco we estimate will be somewhere in the $50,000,000 to $20,000,000 range.

In 2025, you'll probably see a similar range in 2026 as we continue to invest in projects that are needed to bring that production capacity back up. And that's included in the investment in the investment CapEx. It's in the in the back of our deck.

Is that part of the process of thinking about how they restart? Is to secure that additional alumina capacity? Are they not They're not necessarily linked. We can secure that in the marketplace, Tim, that But of course, we look to keep our book balanced We're excited to have that additional production within our portfolio.

The next question comes from John Tumazos with the company very independent research. John, your line is not open. Thank you.

Today, the International Aluminum Institute reported record daily global output Up 2.5% And with inventories falling, it implies about a 3.5% demand growth rate.

In the early part of this year [indiscernible] last year's apparent demand growth rate was about the same 3.5% Do you think demand is growing that rapidly And, or do you think that there's some inventory building maybe because of alumina worries less Russia exports, less China exports, maybe lower interest rates encourages some restocking or some tariff and certain No, John. We really haven't seen any evidence of any sort of shadow stockpiling, if you will, if that's sort of what the question number has been very stable. And you continue to see that tick down over the past several quarters. And we do think that I can't speak to IAI's exact numbers, but I think the ballpark that you gave and the analysis there is largely correct. I said in my prepared remarks, we think aluminum demand will outpace aluminum supply growth over the next several years for sure. [indiscernible] Follow-up The IAI reported a record Chinese output for [indiscernible] January, dollars one hundred and twenty six hundred and forty five tons a day And it used to be that they would cut output [indiscernible] to reduce urban pollution, but they've migrated and changed their energy sources a little bit.

How do you interpret the Chinese output at a record in the middle of the winter And with 6,000,000 tons of alumina capacity being idled, should we adjust that 45,000,000 tonne cap to 48,000,000 or 50 No, absolutely not, John. I think both our view and I think widely the marketplace view is that the Chinese are respecting the 45,000,000 ton cap And we would expect that will be where it goes going forward. And I think one thing that hasn't been talked about a lot, but the decision back in the fall to eliminate the VAT rebate on export. Will is actually a sign of their intention to recognize that $45,000,000 in cap. So in other words, as they look to meet their own downstream demand, they're going to keep all those semi products within China that used to lead. So we view those as actually very supportive of the 45,000,000 ton cap and really bolsters and supports that's the intention of the Chinese government. Of course, we'll see, but that's our view for now.

Thank you. The conference back over to our hosting team for closing remarks.

Okay. Thanks everyone for joining the call.

We're really excited about what's to come in 2025 for Century. We think the market sets up very well for our company. And we're glad to continue our role that we play both in The United States and Europe and producing aluminum that's needed. Thank you very much. Talk to you next quarter.

That will conclude today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. Enjoy the rest of your