Copa Holdings, S.A. Stock Price: Quote, Forecast, Splits & News (CPA)

CPA

Copa Holdings, S.A.

CPA

Overview

Financials

Historical Data

$102.50

-$1.24

1.2%

At close: Jun 20, 4:00:03 PM EDT

$102.50

$0.00

After hours: 6:07:16 PM EDT

Financial information provided by Financial Modeling Prep. Options data provided by Unusual Whales. Live transcripts provided by Quartr. Reported revenue and EPS data from Earnings powered by FinChat.io. All data is provided for informational purposes only, and is not intended for trading purposes or financial, investment, tax, legal, accounting or other advice.

Market Cap: $4.2B
IPO Date: 12/15/05
CEO: Mr. Pedro Heilbron
Fulltime Employees: 7.9K
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Airlines, Airports & Air Services
Country: PA
Exchange: New York Stock Exchange

Peers

$0.00

Watchlist

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Copa Holdings, S.A. Stock Price: Quote, Forecast, Splits & News (CPA)

Change

-$1.24

1.2%

Financial Profile

Prev Close

$103.74

Market Cap

$4.22B

Day Range

$102.32 - $104.48

Open

$104.00

P/E Ratio

7.0

52W Range

$80.01 - $110.73

24H Volume

$27.92M

Dividend Yield

6.28%

EPS

14.64

Key Issues

Latest Price Movement

Jun 22
Jun 22

Earnings

Report Date

May 7, 2025

Reported Revenue

899.2M

Beat +1.28%

Avg 1d Change

6.45%

Report Period

Q1 2025

Reported EPS

4.3

Beat +13.53%

Implied Move 1d

5.48%

Transcript

10m 40s

Not limited to historical facts, that reflect the company's current beliefs, expectations and or intentions regarding future events and results. These forward looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially and are based on assumptions subject to change. Many of these are discussed in our annual report filed with the SEC. I'd like to turn the call over to our CEO, Mr. Pedro Thank you, Daniel.

11m 12s

Good morning to all and thanks for participating in our first quarter earnings call. First, would like to extend my sincere gratitude to all our coworkers for their commitment to the company. Their dedication and hard work have been instrumental in keeping Copa at the forefront of Latin American aviation. To them, as always, my highest regards and admiration. As you could see in our earnings release, we're pleased to report a strong start for the year. Delivering solid first quarter financial results. Our 23.8% operating margin in Q1 is a testament to the resilience of the company's business model as we navigated lower year over year passenger yield environment. Our ongoing focus on maintaining low ex fuel unit costs leading on time performance and a passenger friendly product as well as continuing to expand our hub of The Americas in Panama remains key to consistently achieving leading margins and financial results.

12m 21s

Among the main highlights for the quarter, capacity increased by 9.5% year over year Adjusted for the MAX nine grounding in Q1 twenty twenty four, capacity would have increased by 4.6% for the quarter. Passenger traffic grew by 10.1% compared to Q1 twenty twenty four. As a result, load factor for the quarter increased by 0.4 percentage points to 86.4%. Unit revenues or RASM came in at $0.01 $15 an 8.1% decrease compared to Q1 twenty twenty four. Mainly driven by a 9.1% decrease in passenger yields continuing the trend of the second half of twenty twenty four. Passenger yields were affected by additional industry capacity in the region and a weaker currency environment in certain Latin American countries. [indiscernible] came in at $0.58 in the quarter representing a 4.3% decrease compared to Q1 twenty four. This improvement was primarily driven by lower sales and distribution expenses. A reduction in passenger servicing costs related to the MAX nine grounding in the first quarter of twenty twenty four and continued discipline in managing headcount and overhead to fully benefit from the airlines growth. As mentioned before, operating margin for the quarter came in at 23.8%. On the operational front, Copa Airlines delivered an on time performance of 90.8% and a completion factor of 99.9%.

14m 11s

Once again positioning ourselves among the best in the industry. With regards to our network, we recently announced service to three new cities San Diego, California, starting in June, and Salta and Tucuman in Argentina, starting in September. As we continue strengthening our position, as the most complete and convenient connecting hub for travel in The Americas. Turning over to Wingo During the quarter, Wingo added one new domestic Colombia route between the city Bucaramanga and Santa Marta As mentioned in the previous call, Wingo will receive an additional $7.30 seven-eight hundred from Copa during the second half of this year, to end the year with a fleet of $10.07 37 -eight hundred. With regards to our expectations for the year, we're increasing our 2025 operating margin guidance to a range of 21% to 23% mainly driven by lower fuel cost outlook and steady passenger demand. While there are still many months before the end of the year, we feel confident that our robust business model based on our hub of The Americas in Panama low unit costs, diversified network and passenger friendly product makes us the best positioned airline in our region to consistently deliver industry leading results. Now I'll pass it over to Peter, who will go over our financial results in more detail.

15m 51s

Thank you, Pedro. Good morning to all and thanks for joining our call today. [indiscernible] First of all, I'd like to join Pedro in recognizing our team, for their dedication to the airline and our passengers. For the quarter, we reported a net profit of $176,800,000 or $4.28 per share. Representing a net margin of 19.7%. Operating profit for the quarter came in at $213,800,000 we reported an operating margin of 23.8%. In terms of our balance sheet, we ended the quarter with over $1,300,000,000 in cash, short and long term investments.

16m 39s

Which represents 39% of the company's last twelve month revenue. I'd like to highlight that this figure excludes over $600,000,000 in pre delivery deposits for new aircraft. We have also 39 unencumbered aircraft in our fleet.

16m 57s

In terms of debt, we ended the quarter with $1,900,000,000 in debt, and lease liabilities. And an adjusted net debt to EBITDA ratio of 0.5 times.

17m 9s

I'd like to highlight that our average cost of debt which is entirely related to aircraft financing remains at a highly competitive at an average rate of 3.5%. With approximately 65% of this debt at lower fixed rates. I like to emphasize that our robust liquidity and strong balance sheet remains key strength of the company. Turning now to our fleet, during the quarter we exercise options for six additional Boeing seven thirty seven MAX eight aircraft. Be delivered in 2028. With these confirmed options, our outstanding order book increased to a total of 57 aircraft. We plan to retire one of our nine Boeing seven thirty seven-700s during the second half of the year.

17m 58s

And we now expect to end 2025 with a total of 125 aircraft. During 2026, we expect to receive six Boeing seven thirty seven MAX eight and preliminary end the year with a total fleet 131 aircraft.

18m 17s

Turning now to the return of value to our shareholders. I'm pleased to announce that the company will make its second dividend payment of the year of $1.61 per share on June 13 to all shareholders as of May 30. As to our 2025 outlook, we are increasing our operating margin guidance for the year to a range of 21% to 23%. We expect to grow year over year ASM capacity within the range of 7% to 8%. We're basing our outlook on the following assumptions. Load factor of approximately 86.5% unit revenues of approximately $0.01 $12 CASM ex fuel of approximately $0.58 we're expecting an all in fuel price of $2.4 per gallon.

19m 9s

Of course, we remain mindful of the uncertain economic environment. But as of now, we see healthy passenger booking trends. But if this was to change, we're confident that we are in the best position to continue delivering industry leading results Thank you. And we will now open the call to questions from the analysts.

19m 30s

Thank you. At this time, we'll conduct a question and answer session. Telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press Please standby while we compile the Q and A roster. And our first question comes from the line of Savi Syth of Raymond James Your line is now open. Hey, good morning, everyone.

19m 59s

I think, Peter, you mentioned that the demand environment is still healthy and then clearly the headlines changed quite a bit. I'm just curious what if you've seen any kind of change in either US point of sale trends or or kinda any regional differences since the last earnings call or if it's just consistent with what you've been seeing before?

20m 22s

Hi, Savi. It's Pedro here.

20m 24s

We haven't seen any material change in the last few weeks, let's say. So we're still seeing steady demand But as we know, we only have visibility two to three months in the future. So coming in the second half of the year is hard to tell at this point.

20m 49s

Makes sense. And then if I might follow-up on on that line, you mentioned Pedro, the capacity in the region stepping up. I wonder if you can kind of talk a little bit about if you are seeing any changes on that front or if there is any certain regions where you are seeing more pressure Yes. No, we have not seen any changes lately. Again, industry capacity we think of the next two quarters, which is where we have more visibility, Overall, industry capacity in our network in our region for the second quarter is growing in the neighborhood of 6% and then a little bit higher close to 10% in the third quarter. That's what we're seeing right now. But that is an average There are some competitors or maybe a single competitor that's growing two or three times this pace in this region and others that are flat So it averages out to the numbers I just shared. Understood.

21m 58s

Thank you, Pedro. Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Duane Pfennigwerth of Evercore ISI. Your line is now open.

22m 13s

Hey, guys. Good morning.

22m 15s

Morning.

22m 17s

Just with respect to the distribution cost savings, can you remind us sorry for the baseball analogy, what inning you're in that? Is there additional cost save to get? And are there other cost initiatives that can contribute incrementally from here?

22m 38s

Duane, I'll let Peter answer. But with Panamanians, you can use the baseball analogy, no problem.

22m 44s

Okay.

22m 46s

Hello, Duane. So thank you for the question. I would say that Arturo should costs, we're still seeing some full year effect of what we saw during the later part of the year. We're going to see some of that during the first quarter and during the first half of the year and more to come on savings on our distribution strategy. And that it will flatten out, but we're still looking for additional initiatives and we believe there is more. We are now at 85% direct or via MVC. So we feel that that's a good place to be and we expect that to be steady for the the coming quarters.

23m 24s

And I would add that we recently added Expedia to our NDC channel So that's another positive development. In the right direction.

23m 37s

Okay, great. And then just with respect to the fleet plan that the six deliveries that you called out, next year, can you just remind us where are you on your utilization relative to potential? And how do we think just big picture about the range of outcomes on growth into 2026? Thank you.

23m 59s

Yes. Well, in terms of utilization, we're always around the twelve hours on average and that's where we were in the first quarter. We're about twelve hours of utilization. And that should not change much with the future deliveries. Actually, strive for that number. Or that in that range. And we're expecting 13 aircraft this year. Most are going to come we haven't received any aircraft yet. Well, you know that none in the first quarter. And the first ones we should get in this month of May. We should get two in this month of May. Then the third one should come in July. And then the rest are mostly towards the end of the year. So we won't see most of that growth impact this year. We'll see it in 2026. For sure. I don't think we've shared 2026 ASM growth numbers yet, right? But you can do your numbers. I mean, most of the aircraft come towards the end of the year.

25m 5s

Okay.

25m 6s

Thank you.

25m 8s

Thank you. One moment for our next question. And our next question comes from the line of Guillaume Hernandez of JPMorgan. Your line is now open.

25m 20s

Hi, Pedro, Peter, Daniel. Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. First one is a follow-up to the first question in terms of demand. If you could break it down between leisure, VFR and corporate, how each of the segments have been performing? And the second point on the ROSEN performance, you also mentioned that we have been seeing that FX and competition has been impacting it. But can you to better understand the breakdown between the two of them, the two effects which was it's put more pressure into ROS? Thank you.

25m 57s

Yes, it's okay.

25m 59s

So I'll give you the breakdown then if Peter needs to add anything. So business business is around 20%. Right now. In Q1. And then leisure is about 45%, I believe, Yes, it's 20% business, 45% leisure, then the difference, of course, VFR in terms of the breakdown. In terms of our routes, I'll give you like an overview a quick overview. So South America is doing fine. With the exception of Brazil, where we still have some yield weakness because of the currency situation. Load factors are healthy in Brazil. Better than last year. But yields are still down in Brazil. The rest of South America is okay. North America and The Caribbean, it's okay also. Demand yields are fine. Where we see a little bit more weakness, mostly due to competitive capacity is in Mexico and Central America.

27m 13s

Thank you. One moment for our next question. And our next question comes from the line of Stephen Trent of Citi. Your line is now open.

27m 25s

Good morning, gentlemen, thanks very much for taking my question. Actually, first, just to a quick follow-up on what Guillermo was asking.

27m 36s

You know, appreciate the color on business versus leisure and VFR. Any high level view on how that may have changed versus a year ago considering now, for example, that there's no feed from the vendor's will and mark Or is is Venni Just Too Small To Move The Needle? Thank You.

27m 57s

Right. It Hasn't Changed Much. It Hasn't Really Changed Much. Actually, The Venezuela feed would have [indiscernible] well with this breakdown. So no, we haven't seen any material changes. [indiscernible] Thank you, Pedro. Appreciate that. And just another question as well when we think about the flow on the cash from investing side. I guess, for the the quarter itself, appreciate the color that you mentioned that most of the planes haven't come in yet. But the 1Q cash from investing, was basically sort of financial transactions from you guys Just wanted to make sure.

28m 50s

Yes. Most of it was financial investments.

28m 55s

And we did pay PDPs of around $150,000,000 during the quarter. The rest of it was mostly cash investments.

29m 5s

Okay, super. Thanks very much gents.

29m 8s

Thank you, Steve.

29m 9s

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Jen Spies of Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open.

29m 22s

Hello. Thank you taking my questions and congrats on the strong results. Just want to ask like, a hypothetical question. In case that you do see a bit more weakness, across markets Like, how much flexibility do you have to potentially reduce capacity? Or not grow to the same extent?

29m 49s

Yeah, okay, so I also have a few things there. Number one, we do have a lot of flexibility. We have 39 unencumbered aircraft. Including the seven thirty seven -seven hundred, nine of them. We're actually going to part out of one in the second half of the year. Because we have enough seven thirty seven MAX eight deliveries and we we actually will make money porting out of that aircraft. We don't need the capacity and the engines and other components are extremely valuable right now. So it can be a good business to part out of an aircraft if the capacity is not needed, plus we will save on the twenty year check. So we have 9,007 that we could park use the engines, use the components. We have another 30 on encumbered aircraft. So that gives us a lot of flexibility in terms of what we do with our fleet. But I think as important to that is that we have a very diversified network and we have a number of markets or routes where we actually could use more capacity.

31m

So if we see slow a slowdown in certain markets, it's probably not going to be everywhere. And we can shift capacity around. One of the advantage advantages we have is we have a single seven thirty seven fleet and our aircraft can serve any of our routes So we can move aircraft around in case one region slows down more than others. So we feel pretty comfortable. And I think we have demonstrated in the past that we can be can be flexible, we can adjust and continue delivering strong results under different environments.

31m 41s

Perfect. I think you're already proving that. So, yeah, congrats. Thank you.

31m 48s

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Sergio Arujo of Bank of America. Your line is now open.

31m 59s

Hello, Pedro, Peter. Congratulations on the results. I have a couple here. First one, you're guiding at $2.4 of fuel per gallon. But we estimate the current oil price curve would point to a little bit 10% lower than that. Does it make sense? And if so, would there be about two percentage points of incremental margin if oil remains as it is?

32m 30s

That's the first one. Thank you.

32m 33s

Thank you. So, when we build our guidance, we took a curve we use a recent curve. And as you know, fuel is very volatile. So it can go up or down and we don't adjust our estimates daily. We feel comfortable right now with with our fuel and RASM that we published on the on the guidance. And we feel that that should go very well with our guidance on margins. At this moment and that's what we see. Course, everything can change tomorrow. Right now with the current information we have, we feel comfortable with that combination of RASM and fuel.

33m 8s

And I will add, of course, if fuel stays where it is today, and Rasam stays where it is today, yes, margins will be better. But that's not in our guidance.

33m 26s

Okay, fair enough. And the second one is on dividends. We estimate now a payout ratio of 36% for the year. Including the announced dividends. Is there further room for incremental payments or share repurchasing?

33m 44s

We pay dividends based on last year's earnings. So right now we're paying dividend around we have policies paying 40% of last year's net income. And right now we decided to maintain the dividend flat we're more or less at 44% of last year's net income.

34m 6s

Then in terms of the buyback, we do have a plan that has been approved by the Board It's a $200,000,000 plan. We We bought €87,000,000 last year. So we still have 113,000,000 less what was purchased in Q1, which was a smaller amount was like 3 I believe. So we have around 110,000,000 left of that plan. And we will gradually do some buyback within what's approved by the Board, which it's an amount we're comfortable with.

34m 47s

Okay.

34m 47s

Perfect. Very clear. Thanks so much. A great one.

34m 51s

Thanks.

34m 52s

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Michael Linenberg of Deutsche Bank. Your line is now open. Hey, good morning Pedro, Peter and Daniel. I want to go back to the just your assumptions for 2025. Thought it was interesting that even though we're going to see greater than a 10% cut in fuel, that's the new assumption. That the RASM change it's only a modest deterioration. And I know that you called out yield pressures. As being an issue in the March. You talked about competitive capacity and FX is you know, pressuring yields. Peter, in the past, when we would see energy prices move up, when they were a function of improving global economy, for the most part, you would always be able to pass on, call it, a % of that fuel price increase into the fare structure. And now we're seeing it reverse, but it looks like that you're actually holding the line on pricing. And I'm curious [indiscernible] what gives you the confidence and maybe the fact that you are growing very slowly this year. You're only going to grow about 6% in the back half of the year.

36m 5s

Is that giving you the cushion and the ability to really maintain pricing firm despite the fact that things may be actually slowing down.

36m 16s

Just thoughts on that? Yes.

36m 18s

I'll say a few things. First, that it's still early in the year. It's early in May. We have a lot of runway ahead of us.

36m 29s

To cover. So we're not getting ahead of ourselves. Our RASM guidance is based on what we can see right now for the next two to three months is where we see some weakness. We have lowered our RASM but not significantly, as you will said. But it's the visibility we have today Fuel in our curve is not as low as what it is today. Rogerio mentioned that, but it's that is what we saw kind of two weeks ago a little bit more. So So we're not like every day adjusting our guidance and our outlook because of the [indiscernible] In fuel.

37m 10s

So if we think of of words, fuel guidance and we think of our bookings right now, two three months, in the future. Our RASM is in our RASM takes that into account And there's still other developments that can happen in the year. For example, where we're growing not that fast, is a point you raise, which is very true. So we're not actually dealing with overcapacity. We're actually tight in capacity. We wish we had a few more planes, but that's not our reality right now. And then Brazil could strengthen, who knows, And one day Venezuela could come back. And so so it's early in the year. We're not getting ahead of ourselves.

38m 2s

Okay, great. Now thanks for that Pedro. And then just one quick follow-up, you did call out weakness in Mexico. And I'm curious I know on the Valaris Call, Did Talk About The New Agreement That They Had With You. And Don't Know If You Can Give Us Some Details On It, Maybe It's Just The Code Share. But I Guess, That Agreement, In Theory, Should Help Mitigate Some Of The Weakness That You're Seeing In Mexico. Right? If you're able to codeshare too many of Alaris' markets from, I guess, what do you serve for gateways in Mexico?

38m 38s

Four, yes, correct. Yes. Monterrey, Guadalajara, Mexico, City and Cancun. Our four gateways in Mexico. And yes, our weakness in Mexico comes mostly from competitive capacity. Because we're not in the Mexico U. S. Market. We're in the Mexico to Latin America and Caribbean which is very different and is not affected in the same way. But there is more capacity in that market and that's why we've seen some weakness Although load factors are quite okay still, Yes, the Volaris agreement is very positive. We'll get FEED to Mexico, the second largest market in Latin America after Brazil, and it has many, many large cities that we're not going to be flying to. But connecting through the Volaris network, especially out of places like the city of Mexico and Guadalajara, going to be a very positive development. No doubt.

39m 42s

Okay, great. Great numbers. This quarter.

39m 45s

Thank you.

39m 48s

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Alberto Valerio of UBS. Your line is now open.

40m 1s

Good afternoon from Brazil.

40m 4s

Pedro and Peter, thank you for taking my question.

40m 6s

A follow-up on the previous questions on about capacity We see with the tariffs some uncertainty on carriers about receiving aircraft this year. Can this benefit Copa? Also China, if they do not receive the Boeing seven thirty seven MAX that they're expecting to receive, Can Copa anticipate some deliveries for this year the beginning of next year? Thank you and thank you and congrats for the call. Paul, for the results. Thank you, Alberto. We we're not seeing that right now. Our deliveries are going to be what we have communicated. We don't really see an opportunity advance. We would love to do so But and what the information we from Boeing is that our deliveries are not really going to change At least they're not going to be earlier. I mean, might be earlier by a few weeks or something if Boeing has a little bit more available capacity, but nothing significant. Those are not the signals we're getting.

41m 23s

You. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line Thomas Fitzgerald of TD Cowen. Your line is now open.

41m 34s

Hi, thanks so much for the time. Quick one on other operating revenue. You You called out an increase in Connect miles from non air partners. Would you just start elaborating on was that like one partner in particular? Or who what were some of the drivers behind that?

41m 50s

Yeah. So we are our ConnectMiles program has been mature and it has been growing at a rate and not necessarily with one air partner in particular. It has been a non air partner. It has been growing different partners across the region and open up in different countries. So we see that it's been growing steady and we're happy to see that growth continue.

42m 14s

And it's mainly bank, of course, partners which we are opening up relationships in new countries.

42m 26s

Okay. That's really helpful. And then just another quick one on the fleet. Just with the options in 2028, I know it's far off and fluid, but just any sense of how we should think about the size of the fleet in '27 and '28, just as people kind of start looking out beyond '20 Thanks again for the time.

42m 42s

Yes. We have 57 seven thirty seven MAXs pending delivery.

42m 51s

This year, we're supposed to get 13 And then the following year, in 2026, the number is six So you can deduct those from the 57 and the others are going to come mostly in the following four years. Actually, all in the following four years.

43m 15s

Thank you. One moment for our next question. And our last question comes from the line of Daniel McKenzie of Seaport Global. Your line is now open. Oh, hey. Thanks for squeezing me in, you guys. A couple questions here. Going back to Savi's question, a follow-up on The U. S. Can you remind us of how it's performed historically, say, under a garden variety downturn? So stable, more volatile. I think what's new, by the way, today is just a deeper relationship to to Star, which I think is contributing to some premium revenue as well as investments into Latin America from other countries that are driving some growth in region. So just trying to get a sense of puts and takes on U. S. Demand and how that could potentially be offset?

44m 4s

Elsewhere. [indiscernible] optimistic for cautiously optimistic. We never get too excited about anything. But [indiscernible] sometimes when The U. S. Slows down, it becomes better and more affordable. To fly shorter distances to our part of the world versus going to Europe or Asia So that's one way we could see demand less affected than what one would expect. Also, the currencies, in Latin America strengthen. We sell more in let's say, in South America than in North America. Although it's not as in balance as before. It's much more balanced. But then so if the currency strengthened in South America, and the economies are doing well, then we can get more traffic going south to north. So we're very diversified in the type of our markets and the type of our traffic. The countries we serve, and very spread out also in a way So in the past, we've been able to adjust capacity and the markets have demand has adjusted in the market. By itself also has rebalanced. So we feel we're in a good position. And also, I should add that we have industry leading low cost which also allow us to be very competitive under any circumstance.

45m 44s

Then second question here, to the extent that you can comment on Star Premium revenue as well, but the second question here on the schedules data, am seeing some growth to some vacation destinations or at least it looks that. So just a couple of questions on that. Can you remind us if Copa has a vacations package And then if so, how that's contributing to the financials? And how would you think about the opportunity of that product in the future?

46m 13s

Yeah. No, we don't really have I mean, we have within our commercial department, we have We have a team that looks after our, let's say, vacation wholesalers And we have good relations relationship with a group of wholesalers in South America mainly, but in other countries in The U. S. Also. But we don't have a specific vacation focus. We do deal with the wholesalers and we're very active And yes, so [indiscernible] Okay. Thanks so much for the time, you guys.

46m 59s

Thank you, Dan.

47m

Thank you. I'm showing no further questions at this time. I'll now turn it back to Pedro Hellbone for closing remarks.

47m 8s

Yes. Thank you. Thank you, Froot. So thank you all. This concludes our earnings call. Thank you for being with us, and thanks for your continued support. As always, have a great day. Thank you.

47m 23s

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. That concludes the presentation. You may disconnect and have a wonderful day.

Key Insights

Copa reported strong Q1 results with a 23.8% operating margin and a net profit of $176.8 million ($4.28 per share), driven by disciplined cost management and robust operational performance (on-time performance of 90.8%, completion factor of 99.9%).
Capacity increased by 9.5% year-over-year (4.6% adjusted for MAX 9 grounding), with passenger traffic up 10.1% and load factor rising to 86.4%. However, unit revenues (RASM) decreased by 8.1% due to lower yields, impacted by increased industry capacity and weaker currencies in some Latin American markets.
The company raised its 2025 operating margin guidance to 21%-23%, expects ASM capacity growth of 7%-8%, a load factor of ~86.5%, unit revenues of ~$0.0112, CASM ex-fuel of ~$0.058, and an all-in fuel price assumption of $2.40/gallon.
Copa maintains a strong balance sheet with over $1.3 billion in cash and investments (39% of LTM revenue), $1.9 billion in debt/lease liabilities, and an adjusted net debt/EBITDA ratio of 0.5x; 39 aircraft are unencumbered, providing fleet flexibility.
The company continues network expansion (new routes to San Diego, Salta, Tucuman), exercised options for six additional Boeing 737 MAX 8s (total order book: 57 aircraft), and will pay a $1.61/share dividend in June; share buybacks continue under a $200 million plan with ~$110 million remaining.

Recent Transcripts

Copa Holdings delivered strong Q1 results with a 23.8% operating margin and increased 2025 guidance.

Copa Holdings delivered strong 2024 financials with 21.9% operating margin and robust cost control.

Earnings

Report Date

May 7, 2025

Reported Revenue

899.2M

Beat +1.28%

Avg 1d Change

6.45%

Report Period

Q1 2025

Reported EPS

4.3

Beat +13.53%

Implied Move 1d

5.48%

Transcript

10m 40s

11m 12s

12m 21s

14m 11s

15m 51s

16m 39s

16m 57s

In terms of debt, we ended the quarter with $1,900,000,000 in debt, and lease liabilities. And an adjusted net debt to EBITDA ratio of 0.5 times.

17m 9s

17m 58s

And we now expect to end 2025 with a total of 125 aircraft. During 2026, we expect to receive six Boeing seven thirty seven MAX eight and preliminary end the year with a total fleet 131 aircraft.

18m 17s

19m 9s

19m 30s

19m 59s

20m 22s

Hi, Savi. It's Pedro here.

20m 24s

20m 49s

21m 58s

Thank you, Pedro. Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Duane Pfennigwerth of Evercore ISI. Your line is now open.

22m 13s

Hey, guys. Good morning.

22m 15s

Morning.

22m 17s

22m 38s

Duane, I'll let Peter answer. But with Panamanians, you can use the baseball analogy, no problem.

22m 44s

Okay.

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23m 24s

And I would add that we recently added Expedia to our NDC channel So that's another positive development. In the right direction.

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25m 5s

Okay.

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Thank you.

25m 8s

Thank you. One moment for our next question. And our next question comes from the line of Guillaume Hernandez of JPMorgan. Your line is now open.

25m 20s

25m 57s

Yes, it's okay.

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27m 13s

Thank you. One moment for our next question. And our next question comes from the line of Stephen Trent of Citi. Your line is now open.

27m 25s

Good morning, gentlemen, thanks very much for taking my question. Actually, first, just to a quick follow-up on what Guillermo was asking.

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Yes. Most of it was financial investments.

28m 55s

And we did pay PDPs of around $150,000,000 during the quarter. The rest of it was mostly cash investments.

29m 5s

Okay, super. Thanks very much gents.

29m 8s

Thank you, Steve.

29m 9s

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Jen Spies of Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open.

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31m

31m 41s

Perfect. I think you're already proving that. So, yeah, congrats. Thank you.

31m 48s

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Sergio Arujo of Bank of America. Your line is now open.

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32m 30s

That's the first one. Thank you.

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33m 8s

And I will add, of course, if fuel stays where it is today, and Rasam stays where it is today, yes, margins will be better. But that's not in our guidance.

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Okay.

34m 47s

Perfect. Very clear. Thanks so much. A great one.

34m 51s

Thanks.

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36m 5s

Is that giving you the cushion and the ability to really maintain pricing firm despite the fact that things may be actually slowing down.

36m 16s

Just thoughts on that? Yes.

36m 18s

I'll say a few things. First, that it's still early in the year. It's early in May. We have a lot of runway ahead of us.

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39m 42s

Okay, great. Great numbers. This quarter.

39m 45s

Thank you.

39m 48s

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Alberto Valerio of UBS. Your line is now open.

40m 1s

Good afternoon from Brazil.

40m 4s

Pedro and Peter, thank you for taking my question.

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41m 23s

You. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line Thomas Fitzgerald of TD Cowen. Your line is now open.

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42m 14s

And it's mainly bank, of course, partners which we are opening up relationships in new countries.

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42m 42s

Yes. We have 57 seven thirty seven MAXs pending delivery.

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46m 59s

Thank you, Dan.

47m

Thank you. I'm showing no further questions at this time. I'll now turn it back to Pedro Hellbone for closing remarks.

47m 8s

Yes. Thank you. Thank you, Froot. So thank you all. This concludes our earnings call. Thank you for being with us, and thanks for your continued support. As always, have a great day. Thank you.

47m 23s

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. That concludes the presentation. You may disconnect and have a wonderful day.

Key Insights

Copa reported strong Q1 results with a 23.8% operating margin and a net profit of $176.8 million ($4.28 per share), driven by disciplined cost management and robust operational performance (on-time performance of 90.8%, completion factor of 99.9%).
Capacity increased by 9.5% year-over-year (4.6% adjusted for MAX 9 grounding), with passenger traffic up 10.1% and load factor rising to 86.4%. However, unit revenues (RASM) decreased by 8.1% due to lower yields, impacted by increased industry capacity and weaker currencies in some Latin American markets.
The company raised its 2025 operating margin guidance to 21%-23%, expects ASM capacity growth of 7%-8%, a load factor of ~86.5%, unit revenues of ~$0.0112, CASM ex-fuel of ~$0.058, and an all-in fuel price assumption of $2.40/gallon.
Copa maintains a strong balance sheet with over $1.3 billion in cash and investments (39% of LTM revenue), $1.9 billion in debt/lease liabilities, and an adjusted net debt/EBITDA ratio of 0.5x; 39 aircraft are unencumbered, providing fleet flexibility.
The company continues network expansion (new routes to San Diego, Salta, Tucuman), exercised options for six additional Boeing 737 MAX 8s (total order book: 57 aircraft), and will pay a $1.61/share dividend in June; share buybacks continue under a $200 million plan with ~$110 million remaining.