DT Midstream, Inc. Price & Performance (DTM)

Good morning and welcome everyone. Before we get started, I would like to remind you to read the Safe Harbor statement on Page two of the presentation. Including the reference to forward looking statements. Our presentation also includes references to non GAAP financial measures. Please refer to the reconciliation to GAAP contained in the appendix. Joining me this morning are David Slater, President and CEO and Jeff Jewell, Executive Vice President. With that, I'll go ahead and turn the call over to David. Thanks, Todd, and good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining. During today's call, I'll discuss our 2024 accomplishments, provide an update on our organic growth projects, our recent Midwest pipeline acquisition, and our outlook for 2025 I'll then close with some observations on the overall gas market before turning it over to Jeff to review our financial performance and guidance, So with that, 2024 was another strong year for DTM. I'd like to commend our employees for their continued dedication and commitment to excellence. Including their exceptional safety performance, finishing the year with zero OSHA recordable safety incidences Very well done everyone.

I'd also like to welcome to DTM all the new employees that joined the team from One Oak following our Midwest pipeline acquisition. These professionals have strengthened our organization with their deep expertise in operating FERC assets. Turning now to our financial results. Delivered adjusted EBITDA of $969,000,000 which exceeded our increased guidance midpoint, and was another record high year. Extending our track record of 10% compounded annual growth since we spun the company in 2021, At the end of the year, we closed on the acquisition for One Oak, expanding our FERC interstate natural gas pipeline network. The transition of these pipes to DTM has been resting well. And the team is busy integrating these assets into our network On the construction front, we had solid execution of projects across our footprint. On schedule and on budget. Our Haynesville construction team placed several key growth projects into service enhancing both the supply and market connectivity of the network. We also placed our Ohio Utica system into service with our anchor customer noting the resource they are continues to meet or exceed expectations, providing confidence in the premium quality of this resource play. And we look forward to further expansions of the system as well as potential downstream opportunities as they increase their pace of development.

On the commercial front, our team advanced many opportunities from our backlog into full development. We reached FID on a LEAP Phase four expansion in the Haynesville and added new producers to the network. Expanded our Stonewall and AGS systems with a new Mountain Valley Pipeline interconnect re contracted nearly 20 BCF of capacity at our gas storage complex with overall longer terms and attractive rates and added our clean fuels, Gathering Project. We continued our disciplined financial management prioritizing a strong balance sheet with our goal of achieving an investment grade rating. And we were upgraded to investment grade by Finch in October and expect to be upgraded by at least one of the other two rating agencies in 2025. Having positive outlooks from both S and P and Moody's. So I am very pleased with our overall performance during 2024 despite some significant macro sector headwinds, including depressed natural gas prices causing producer slowdowns, a pause in approval of new LNG export permits, and an uncertain political environment for much of the year.

Our team has proven time and again their ability to execute on commitments regardless of the broader environment. So I'm excited about the future and our team's ability to deliver on expectations. Turning to 2025 and beyond. We are very well positioned to serve growing demand across our footprint. And continue our track record of premium high quality growth. 2025 is presenting a [indiscernible] and overall natural gas market sentiment. Making it an opportune time to capitalize on commercial projects. This morning, I am pleased to announce two new projects, that will serve utility scale power generation. The first project is off of our newly acquired assets where we will be constructing a lateral for Midwestern gas transmission Is currently being converted from coal to natural gas. The lateral capacity will be approximately 300,000,000 cubic feet per day and construction is currently underway with an expected in service date Q1, of twenty twenty six, The second project is off of our Stonewall and AGS system. We have signed a precedent agreement with an experienced power generation developer to serve one of their new power developments. A 2,060 megawatt combined cycle gas turbine power plant in West Virginia. Under a twenty year firm service contract, on our Stonewall and Appalachia Gathering Systems.

The project is subject to our customer reaching FID on the power plant which we expect to occur in 2026. Our expected pipeline in service is late twenty twenty eight. These are the first two projects to be commercialized out of our robust backlog of opportunities to serve power demand growth. Subsequent to the acquisition from One Oak, we have updated our overall project backlog. Increasing it by approximately $1,000,000,000 to $2,300,000,000 over the 2025 to twenty twenty nine time period. The $2,300,000,000 represents our high probability organic growth opportunities. This project backlog can be fully funded within our cash flow and supports our 5% to 7% long term organic growth rate With pipeline projects comprising approximately 70% of the total opportunity set. Finally, I'd like to take a moment to address the natural gas market fundamentals. We are seeing strong structural demand signals across our assets. Cold weather has rebalanced the North American market strengthening natural gas prices this January and February, our store complex experienced all time high record withdrawals and many of our pipelines experienced peak day conditions and are flowing at record high utilizations. New LNG terminals are ramping up capacity and power demand growth In addition, we have seen a pendulum shift in public and political around the importance of natural gas being a foundational fuel to drive the American economy and to support our allies around the world.

This could be a fundamental turning point ushering in a new era of investment in natural gas infrastructure as a nation more clearly appreciates its role in delivering an affordable Reliable, domestic, clean fuel to serve growing power generation and industrial onshoring demand. I believe these fundamentals will provide tailwinds across our asset portfolio Our Haynesville system with its leading connectivity to both supply and demand markets is exceptionally well positioned to capitalize on these strengthening trends. We expect that LNG demand that can be served by our Haynesville system will grow by 12 Bcf per day within the next decade. And basin supply will increase by a similar level. Strongly positioning our integrated system to serve the supply and demand for the [indiscernible] Industrial and commercial onshore is another quickly developing theme that we believe our assets are well positioned to serve. As much of this demand is forecasted to emerge across our asset footprint, in the industrial heartland of the country. We need to increase utilization and expansion opportunities for our pipelines. Turning to power demand, our assets are strategically located to capture future growth in U. Utility Scale, Grid Connected Electric Generation Demand. With Our New Midwest interstate pipeline assets serving utility customers with ample coal to gas switching opportunities.

And our storage complex providing these customers with balancing services. In addition to grid connected power demand, we continue to advance our behind the meter data center projects. We are engaged with many developers whose proposed projects sit on top of or adjacent to our assets. While these projects are still being developed, we expect that DTM's opportunity will come in the form of pipe with the potential for mainline expansions to follow. So with that, I'll pass it over to Jeff to walk you through our financial results and outlook. Thanks, David, and good morning, everyone. As David mentioned, we delivered overall 2024 adjusted EBITDA of $969,000,000 an increase of 5% over the prior year. Supported by our pipeline segment's 7% growth year over year which was driven by new LEAP expansions and higher storage revenue. For the fourth quarter, we delivered overall adjusted EBITDA of $235,000,000 Pipeline segment was in line with the prior quarter. Driven by increased seasonal demand at our storage facility, [indiscernible] on our JV pipelines. Offset by transaction costs related to our Midwest Pipeline acquisition. Our Gathering segment results were $6,000,000 lower than the prior quarter. Driven by producer deferrals of production to Q1 of twenty twenty five and a key producer customer unplanned outage resulting in lower Haynesville volumes. [indiscernible] Operationally for the quarter, total gathering volumes across the Haynesville averaged just above 1.4 Bcf per day, down from the third quarter driven by the deferrals and the key customer outage I previously mentioned. [indiscernible] Volumes in the Northeast were flat quarter over quarter.

In 2025, volumes appear be responding positively to the improved natural gas price environment. With Haynesville volumes averaging 1.6 Bcf per day, thus far Now moving on to our financial outlook, for 2025 and beyond. As we have done in the past, we are providing the current year guidance as well as an early outlook for next year. For 2025, our adjusted EBITDA guidance range is 1,950,000,000.00 billion dollars to 1,155,000,000.000 representing 18% growth from our 2024 original guidance. Our 2026 early outlook range for adjusted EBITDA is $1,155,000,000 to 1,225,000,000.000 with the midpoint representing a 6% increase over the 2025 guidance midpoint. Our adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2025 and 2026 supported by the incremental contribution from our growth investments. Including the integration of our recently completed Midwest pipeline acquisition as well as expected activity from our major customers. Longer term, we continue to target adjusted EBITDA growth of 5% to 7% which is supported by our $2,300,000,000 organic backlog advantaged asset positions strong balance sheet and our high level of take or pay contracts. Our 2025 growth capital guidance is $400,000,000 For 2026, we expect the level of growth investments to be in line with 2025. We currently have approximately $60,000,000 of committed spend in 2026.

And are working to advance a number of organic growth opportunities to FID. Our Board has declared a quarterly dividend increase to $0.82 per share. Which represents a 12% increase. This increase is supported by our higher adjusted EBITDA following the Midwest Pipeline acquisition, and its larger opportunity set and earnings base. Our approach to the dividend has not changed. As we plan to continue to grow it annually in line with adjusted EBITDA growth, and we are committed to maintaining a coverage ratio above our two times floor. From a balance sheet perspective, we are pleased with our positioning on leverage and progress toward obtaining an investment grade credit rating. As David mentioned, we received positive reaction from the rating agencies following our recently completed Midwest pipeline acquisition. And are on positive outlook with both Moody's and S and P. In addition to Fitch's, investment grade rating. Our debt maturity profile has a weighted average maturity of approximately seven years and we are forecasting twenty twenty five year end on balance sheet leverage of 3.1 times and proportional leverage of 3.9 times. We continue to execute our plans have shared with the rating agencies. And expect to be upgraded to an investment grade in 2025.

Our cash flows continue to remain strong funding our growth investments, and we continue to expect to be minimal cash taxpayer until 2028. And with that, I'll now pass it back over to David for closing remarks. Thanks, Jeff. So in summary, we are highly confident in delivering on our full year guidance. For 2025 and early outlook for 2026. Continuing our track record of strong performance, Looking forward, the market fundamentals supporting our pipeline business are very positive. It certainly feels like we are entering the golden age for energy infrastructure investment. Our pure play natural gas pipeline asset portfolio is very well positioned to take advantage of this opportunity. With their integrated assets providing critical capacity, to premium and growing demand markets. We continue to remain laser focused on advancing our sizable organic project backlog delivering long term value creation to our shareholders, and supporting our reliable growing dividend. And with that, we can now open up the lines for questions. Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. Your first question comes from Michael Blum with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

Thanks. Good morning, everybody.

Good morning, Michael. So before I I definitely want to ask about the two new projects But before I do, just want to level set, you have been, I think before talking about six or more lateral data center related projects that you have been pursuing I thought those were behind the meter. So guess the first question is, are the two announcements today are front of the meter in addition to those or are those part of what you've been pursuing?

No, those are new and in addition to our behind the meter opportunities, Michael. So these I would call these utility scale, direct utility scale power generation opportunities.

Great. Perfect. And then on the projects, I'm just wondering, on the Midwest and Appalachia projects, Anything you can give us in terms of CapEx, expected returns? And then for the Midwest project, what the length of the contract would look like? [indiscernible] I'd say we'll start with the one off Midwestern. It's we're going to build a relatively short lateral over to this facility. And the customer is committing to long term firm capacity on the mainline. We'll build this under a blanket authorization. So that will give you a sense of the capital size here. It's fairly modest from a capital perspective. But layers on a really nice long term load onto the network. That we're really excited about. And this transaction happened literally right out of the gate with the new assets. So So I'd say we're really pleased two months into it with provide and that's all reflected in the increased backlog that we've disclosed to to the shareholders today. If we switch over to Appalachia, That project has been in the works for a number of years with a large power developer.

It's in the PJM It's also been through the West Virginia PSC process.

It'll hang off of the Stonewall system and have firm capacity. Across the entire network, our gathering network, both Stonewall and gathering system And again, they haven't FID the plant yet, so they and then we would commence construction to serve that plant. And again, that's a long term contract, a twenty year contract.

With a brand new combined cycle power plant. Sits in a really nice spot inside the PGM system.

Thank you. Your next question comes from Theresa Chen with Barclays.

Please go ahead.

Good morning.

For the broader updated $2,300,000,000 backlog, Can you just remind us your expected return [indiscernible] as well as the projects that you're pursuing from here? Sure, Teresa.

I think we've pretty consistently been sharing the five to eight times multiple in terms of proxy for the returns on these projects and nothing has changed there. [indiscernible] obviously, we're trying to get the lowest multiple possible on all of our projects. But I think that band is a good a good calibration for for the investors in terms of how we view our capital deployment. And the two projects that we announced today comfortably fall into that band.

Got it. And on the macro front, on the heels of the weather tailwinds, the LNG speed gas ramping higher, the drawdown of inventory, better pricing as a result, Based on your conversations with your producer customers, what are your views on the pace of production per recovery across your footprint from here through the remainder of this year and into next? Maybe just kind of asking what does the near term look that's analogous to Slide 28?

Yes. Well, why don't we just talk about this year because I'm not sure that many of the public producers are even talking about next year yet. So I think the way to think about it for our guidance is we are expecting to see Haynesville volumes ramp over the year.

In our portfolio and I think Jeff mentioned it in the call this in his remarks this morning that we're already seeing a ramp from kind of the exit rate in 2024 to where we are today. And then we're expecting Appalachia volumes to be relatively flat across the footprint. It's different by system We have four different systems in Appalachia.

But generally, Appalachia looks about flat across the year embedded in our $25,000,000 guidance.

So that's kind of the feedback we've been getting.

Sort of at the end of last year from our producers there's been a lot of fundamental changes in the market over the last two months and I alluded to some of those in my opening remarks. So obviously, we're going to we're going to work closely with our producer customers to see if they're going to adjust their plans or not. As they kind of look forward at the gas markets and the pricing for the balance of this year and next year. But I'd say just generally speaking, it's been a very positive shift in sentiment around natural gas and their feelings around their business as But I do think especially for the publics, They want to give a little time to make sure that that that pricing remains intact. And that's just my sense of the multiple conversations we've had with all of our producer customers in our gathering segment.

Thank you. Your next question comes from Spiro Dounis with Citi. Please go ahead.

Thanks, operator. Good morning, everybody. Wanted to go back to the capital plan quickly. David, I think you referred to these projects as highly probable. And so just curious if you just give us a sense of the magnitude of the projects maybe sitting behind what was announced today? And how much room do you think there is to add to this backlog while staying within your free cash flow? And second part of this question, just want to make sure Have you assumed that some of these data center projects are in that $2,300,000,000 or would they be additive?

Yes. Good morning, Spiro. Great question. Maybe I'll start at the highest level. And I'd say now that we've closed the acquisition, from 70% of that backlog is sitting in the pipeline segment. Which we love because it's high quality projects The one that we just talked about this morning is sort of the first of a series of projects that we're working on there. In addition, the modernization opportunity set that we envisioned pre close is even more robust than we thought post close. So that investment opportunity is in the backlog and is very significant.

Versus maybe the last time we publicly chatted to the investors pre close So giving us a lot of confidence in that backlog and And you kind of said it Spiro, this is a probability weighted backlog that highly probable number. [indiscernible] there's a significant set of opportunities in addition to what we've just disclosed that I think over time as we work on them they could get pulled into the backlog. So I'm really optimistic about the opportunity set in front of the company. Right now, We've got really favorable sentiment right now in the market both on the regulatory front and on the political front and in the general population sentiment front.

So Again, don't want to get too far ahead of ourselves here, but everything is aligning nicely right now to create a nice runway for the company over multiple years. To I think make some significant investments in our pipeline segment. So we're really excited about that Spiro. Turning to the power generation, we kind of intentionally wanted to unpack for the investors in the slide deck. And really differentiate that opportunity set between what I'll call utility underpinned power demand growth and then behind the meter data center power demand growth. What we've been observing in the last three or four months is many you utilities, especially up here in the Midwest, have directly captured some of the data center demand And as a result of that, our initiating what I call utility scale gas fired power generation projects.

We're very excited about that obviously because many of those utilities are customers of ours on pipelines already. So there seems to be really two emerging trends that we're seeing in our footprint. Both the data center trend, which we've talked about at length and that's very robust and continues to be robust and we're really just waiting on-site commercialization for all the pieces to fall into place to be able to FID some of those projects. And this emerging utility scale power generation opportunity that's presenting itself sort of at the same time. So very excited about that. Great. Helpful color, David.

Second question, pivoting here to the Utica. Sounds like that's going pretty well. I think you said exceeding expectations. So I wonder if you could just dial that in a little bit more and maybe give us a little bit color there around the outlook. And you also did mention the possibility for downstream opportunities. I just want to make sure I understand what that means. You looking to maybe get into the processing at some point or are we talking about downstream into the transmission side?

Yes, it's really my reference was to transmission side. Spiro, as potential downstream opportunities as to be used for in scrap. I expect these producers will want to have a pathway out of the basement basin at some point. So that will present opportunities for us with our transmission pathways out of the basin. And then in terms of where we see this part of our business going and 'twenty five and 'twenty six. I'm highly confident and again, I can't speak on behalf of public companies here, but highly confident that there's going to be growth and a focus on these resource and continuing to develop these resources So we're hand in hand with our anchor customer here working to line out those expansion plans and make sure that the infrastructure is there for them as they continue to develop their resource base.

Great. Helpful as always. I'll leave it there. Thanks, gentlemen.

Your next question comes from John McKay Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Hey, good morning. Thanks for the time. I wanted to move to the Haynesville You guys have talked in the past about your ability to take market share down there. I guess I'd just be curious you guys stand now in terms of where you think DTM can grow versus a broader basin on both gathering and then also on lead expansions?

Yes. Good morning, John. Great question. Nothing has really changed in that regard. We're highly confident in our ability to continue to grow that network like we have over the last three years.

There's lots of lots of infrastructure discussions being had in the public domain right now around the Haynesville and the Gulf Coast markets, which as I look at that, the demand is showing up and the market is recognizing that the demand is showing up and there's lots of infrastructure projects being discussed publicly to connect incremental supply to that new demand that's showing up. So the confidence level in the demand arriving is high right now. So So I expect that we will continue to win our fair share of the market share as this continues develop over the back half of the decade, just like we have over the past three years.

I'm really proud of the fact that our system is the most highly interconnected system, period, out of the basin in terms of supply connectivity, and market connectivity And I believe that's appreciated by all the market players and that's why we've been able to keep peeling off expansions kind of consistently over the last three years.

We're obviously working on the next one.

And as we once we contract that, we'll start working on the one after that.

And we've got a nice runway of capability with that asset set. And again, we can continue to expand a nice bite sized pieces that comfortably fits into what the market wants And I think that's just one of the competitive advantages in addition to the connectivity feature that we have across the footprint. So that'll be the plan to keep chipping away at it going forward and just keep our fair share of the growing market demand.

I appreciate that. Thank you. And maybe just staying down there in Louisiana. Mind just giving us an update on CCS? I think we're seeing the timeline push a little bit. I know there's a lot going on in the broader regulatory side, so maybe just an update there.

Yes. So I'll start with the positive is that the the application requirements were finalized by Louisiana, the state of Louisiana. So that was slowing everything down last year. So that's that's kind of done and we're over that step. So now the application is complete. It's really sitting with the state. And we're in the waiting period now for the final Class six permit.

As soon as we have that in hand, then you should expect that we will FID the project and at that point begin to spend what I'll call material amounts of capital to construct the project.

We're obviously talking to the states, pretty much weekly now, trying to get a sense of timing from them. And I'm not going to predict their timing anymore because I've been predicting it for the last twelve months.

They always underwhelmed in terms of what they say versus what they do.

I'm just being transparent with you because I know everyone's wondering about this So we're applying steady patient pressure to the state to move things along. Application is complete. We have a lot of local support for our project. All the critical pieces are in place and ready to go. It's just the permit at this point. [indiscernible] That's clear. Thank you, David. Appreciate it.

Your next question comes from Keith Stanley with Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.

Hi, good morning. Just one clarifying question For the lateral project on Midwestern and for growth projects generally, on the new interstate pipeline assets, do you expect recovery to come from FERC rate cases or can some of these projects be done with bilateral contracts And then related to that, just curious, your expected rate case cadence for those new assets?

Yes, Keith. Good morning and great question. So initially, there'll be new incremental contracts that support these investments And then when that particular asset comes into the next rate case, obviously that capital and that rate base rolls into your next rate case and is part of the next rate case process. So that's how it will play out for the FERC assets DT some point in the future, they all will go into some type of a rate case [indiscernible] Whether it be like a negotiated settlement or whether it be a full rate case process through the FERC So that's how you should think about it in terms of the capital deployment, But again, in all cases, we have certain return expectations. The rate case process when that does play out is part of the economic [indiscernible] when we determine whether we're going to make that investment upfront or not, So that's all folded into what I'll call the hurdle rates and the return expectations. On the project, when we initiate and FID the project upfront.

Great. And any timing you're expecting just for rate case cadence or frequency?

Yes. All three of those assets are on a different rate case cadence. And I don't want to I don't have that handy in guess at it. For you. So I'm going to ask you to follow-up with Todd offline and we can get you those details. But I don't want to quote it and have it quoted wrong here.

Great. Appreciate it.

Your next question comes from Zach Van Eren Please go ahead.

Hey guys, thanks for taking my question.

Just one on Midwestern's lateral.

It looks like you guys were able to get this in service relatively quickly due to the FERC blanket authorization.

Do you have that authorization on any other assets or is it just this pipeline?

No, every one of the FERC assets has a blanket authorization. Capability.

Okay. So when we think about because generally on the FERC side, a lot of people know one to two years in permitting and one ish year to build depending on size. Will your projects relatively be a little bit faster than that due to the authorization?

Yes.

If we can get projects in under the the blanket, those projects can go a lot swifter then going through the full process with the FERC as you just highlighted. So yes, this one was like literally a nine iron off the mainline.

So it was it's a very short easy build over to this facility. Which allowed it to go super quick, like literally right after we closed [indiscernible] This opportunity present itself and yes, so we're super excited about this, right?

Right out of the shoot, we've got our first hour deal on these new assets. And as I alluded to, there are more to come that we're working on. Behind this.

Good.

Great.

Your next question comes from Robert Moskow Mizuho Securities. Please go ahead.

Hi, good morning, everyone.

So on the HES lateral projects, I understand that hasn't been FID ed yet, but is there potential for DTM to be a part of a CCS solution there. Has that come up at all in conversations?

Yes.

Good morning, Rob.

We've been having a CCS conversations with a handful of power developers in the Appalachia, the what I'll call the broader Appalachian region So it's very very much in the forefront of their minds right now. That being said, with the new administration and with what we believe is a relaxing of the rules around new gas fired generation it may not be a requirement perhaps as some thought a year ago, So my sense right now is that the developers are pivoting more towards what I would call a conventional combined cycle footprint but have the optionality in those facilities to either over time introduce a hydrogen blend build the facility in a way that over time if they needed to they could capture carbon off the back end of the plant for sequestration. Again, over time. So a lot of the developers are looking at trying to engineer in the optionality to decarbonize a facility over time.

Which I think is a smart approach. Just given how the the sentiment in the market and then the nation can swing back and forth. On this particular topic.

Got it. No, that's helpful.

And then maybe turning to the Haynesville, I think your main producer there has noted that they want to be flexible in terms of their production plans. How does that look in terms of conversations you have month to month or quarter to quarter, I'm just should we think about it differently than this is the plan that you have kind of exiting '24 and just how dynamic that could be over the course of '25?

Sure.

Well, again, I just have to be careful here because as you know, our largest customer is a public company. So what I'll say generically and maybe I repeat what I said earlier is that we expect volumes across our network So the gathered volumes directly from our producer customers, which we have many, will grow over the course of the year. And we've actually seen them grow significantly since the exit rate in 2024. So some of that growth has already occurred. Which is positive, right? It's what I would have expected given how the market is shaping up right now.

So we'll see as the year progresses and as producers get progressively more confident with pricing and get more confident with the demand that's showing up Again, a lot of producers and I think they've said this publicly, they want to see the demand. They want to see it, feel it and experience DT.

Before they start to deploy capital to growing some of their production.

So I really think we're in a little bit of a wait and see mode Having said that, Natural gas prices today are probably $0.75 higher than they were three months ago.

Which is a pretty significant upward move. Which certainly is supportive for their businesses. So we're just being patient. We see growth. We have growth in our plan. And we'll see how that evolves as the year unfolds.

Got it. Thanks, David, and appreciate the time everyone. You're welcome.

There are no more questions. I will now turn the conference back over to David for closing remarks.

Well, thank you again for joining us. We certainly appreciate the support that you've shown to the company and look forward to delivering another strong year.

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.