The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. Price & Performance (GBX)

We will refer to recurring revenue throughout our comments today. Recurring revenue is defined as leasing and fleet management revenue, excluding the impact of syndication activity. Before I hand the call over to Laurie, I wanted to provide some perspective. Last week marked my nineteenth anniversary with Greenbrier, and it always causes me to reflect on the journey that Greenbrier has been on over my time here. It's remarkable to me that we are near record setting EPS levels in what has been at best an okay railcar market the last few years versus the heady years of 70,000 to 80,000 car builds in 2014 and 'fifteen. To me, this underlines the strength creativity, and experience of this team. What's even more impressive is that we aren't done yet. Remain relentlessly focused on controlling what we can control, which is improving operating efficiency, reducing costs, and ultimately creating shareholder value. And with that, I'll hand the call over to Laurie. Thank you, Justin, and congratulations on your anniversary. Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us today.

First, want to emphasize Greenbrier's strong performance in our second quarter ended 02/28/2025. Specifically, core net earnings of 56,000,000 or $1.73 per share excluding convertible debt dilution is higher on a sequential basis than Q1 on $100,000,000 less of revenue. This reflects our continued focus on operating efficiency as further demonstrated by our impressive aggregate gross margin of 18.2%, This was our sixth consecutive quarter delivering aggregate gross margins at or above the mid teens target we established two years ago. Second, it is important to mention that our North American operations are USMCA compliant, It's a bit of an understatement to say that the macroeconomic landscape has been noisy and dominated by fluctuating rhetoric and actions on trade policies and tariffs. But to be clear, our products, have not been the target of proposed or enacted tariffs. However, tariffs are impacting the cost of our inputs predominantly steel, and portend structural changes in how our customers operate. Thanks to our excellent procurement team, we have confidence in our ability to protect margins the most immediate impact on our supply chain. In fact, we've raised our full year aggregate gross margin guidance as well as our guidance for operating margin despite lowering our delivery and revenue guidance.

We're working collaboratively with our customers and business partners to strategize and provide solutions for their freight rail transport requirements. For now, railcar utilization remains steady. It's important to reiterate that Greenbrier has a very long history and has operated through a variety of macro backdrops. We have an experienced and agile team will flex our manufacturing capacity as necessary to rapidly respond to changes in demand while maximizing our operating efficiency. Building on the cap capacity rationalization initiative begun in 2023, we've been reviewing our production capacity and footprint in Europe. An outcome of this analysis will be the rationalization of one facility in Romania. We are aware that this is a consequential decision that impacts our employees, customers, and the community. However, this is part of our long term strategy in Europe, which will reduce costs and improve our competitive position. This also means we'll experience reduced deliveries from our European facilities in the second half of fiscal twenty twenty five. Over the longer term, our aggregate production capacity will remain same or higher as we continue to invest in the remaining locations. Our global new railcar backlog remains robust at over 20,000 units which provides excellent visibility for managing our production lines and volume.

And it gives us a reliable revenue outlook. We expect a slight reduction in aggregate gross margin during the back half of this fiscal year but we expect to remain solidly in the mid teens as we leverage the operating efficiencies gained over the last two years. Our team is laser focused on delivering strong performance and operating efficiency gains through the hard work and dedication that has historically enabled Greenbrier to achieve in uncertain environments. I want to acknowledge the amazing progress being made on our in sourcing initiatives in Mexico. I visited our teams last week and was able to see firsthand the incredible work that will provide benefits in various demand environments. I remain extremely optimistic about our future. Our leasing and fleet management operation continues to take a disciplined approach to growing our lease fleet which provides predictable revenue and cash flow across market conditions. And lastly, I'm pleased to report an increase of our quarterly dividend by nearly 7% to $0.32 per share. This demonstrates the continued confidence of our Board, and leadership in our long term strategy affirming our commitment to return value to our shareholders while investing in the business. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Brian, who will discuss our operating activities in greater detail.

Thanks, Lori, and good afternoon. In Q2, we delivered 5,500 new railcars and a healthy manufacturing gross margin of 13.6%, While our mix had a similar profile to Q1 margins, modestly lower due to production changes and the costs associated with closing a facility in Europe. I am pleased with the focus and performance of the manufacturing business over the last several quarters.

The leasing team continues to perform well. The size of Greenbrier's lease fleet was effectively unchanged from the prior quarter reflecting the timing of additions to the fleet as well as the disciplined nature of our approach. Our intention to invest up to 300,000,000 annually on a net basis remains unchanged. Provided that the railcar fleet additions meet our return criteria. Recurring revenue reached 157,000,000 over the last four quarters, representing 39% growth. From our starting point just two years ago. Customers are holding onto leased railcars, And lease renewals and rate increases continue to be strong.

We entered fiscal twenty twenty five with about 10% of our leases up for renewal and successfully renewed more than half of those in the first two quarters.

Given the ongoing strength in the leasing market, we are confident that we will successfully renew or remarket the balance of these units.

We expect leasing fundamentals to remain strong this year because of limited equipment supply and builder production discipline.

We syndicated 800 units in the quarter, generating good liquidity and margins. And we expect syndication activity to accelerate in the back half of the year. The timing of syndication activity is primarily tied to customer delivery requirements and production scheduling. Turning to the new railcar market, Greenbrier secured orders of 3,100 units worth nearly $400,000,000 in the quarter. Our pipeline remains robust but inquiries have been slow to translate into orders as customers have been waiting clarity on US trade policy.

With some clarity now established, we are talking with customers about the rail equipment needs in this environment.

Rail car users and owners are experiencing a range of impacts from negligible to significant. As we manage through this transition, Greenberg is doing what we have always done in uncertain times, listening, are actively listening to our customers our suppliers, and everyone in the value chain.

Greenbrier's history demonstrates that when we listen, to our business partners and work collaboratively to accommodate their needs, we emerge stronger. In the meantime, our global backlog remains strong at 20,400 units.

With an estimated value of 2,600,000,000.0 providing significant revenue visibility and allowing us to manage our production rates and lines efficiently. The maintenance market is expected to remain solid this year and next. Programmatic railcar restoration activity that isn't included in our backlog will become a more meaningful contributor to our results over the next two years as the industry faces peak tank car requalifications. In fiscal twenty twenty five, we will perform these activities on several thousand units and expect requalifications to continue at a healthy pace for the next few years. These activities are not just accretive to Greenbrier, they allow us to utilize our capacity efficiently. Railcar restoration and requalification work can be performed at either our manufacturing facilities or our maintenance locations, depending on various factors. This provides us significant flexibility to maximize the use of our existing footprint.

I would also highlight that the average age of the North American fleet is over twenty years the highest level in a decade.

This speaks to both the need for maintenance services for older railcars the potential demand for new railcars that is suppressed in the market today. In Europe, the change in US foreign policy has galvanized European leaders to commit to a significant expansion in defense, and infrastructure spending. We remain confident in the medium and long term prospects for the European economic recovery, and the freight rail industry that will be needed to support it.

In Brazil, we observed an increase in demand that aligns with our expectations.

As customers finalize infrastructure investments and transition to purchasing railcars. Brazil stands to benefit from U. S. Tariff activity as trading routes are reordered. And we expect benefits to the freight rail sector.

Additionally, the Brazilian government has increased the import tax from 11.2% to 30%. All railcars produced outside of Brazil. Creating a significant barrier of entry of foreign products.

Overall, we expect to navigate short term market weakness and deliver strong performance.

As Greenbrier continues to successfully implement its strategic plan.

And with that, I'll hand the call over to Michael.

Thank you, Brian. I will cover our second quarter financial highlights and key drivers as well as update the fiscal year 2025 guidance. As Justin mentioned, you can find our earnings release and supplemental slides on our website. I'm pleased with our financial results in the second quarter as we delivered strong performance and continue to focus on our operating efficiency. We've made meaningful improvements across the business and have been building on our operating momentum. On a year over year basis, second quarter core operating earnings and net income have grown 4268% respectively. Reflecting the strength and successful execution of our strategic plan. Greenbrier remains in a strong financial position. Revenue in the quarter of $72,000,000 was in line with our expectations, Deliveries of 5,500 new railcars reflect sequential decreases in North America and Europe resulting from the timing, of syndication activities and production changes. Expect deliveries to remain at this level with the midpoint of our guidance averaging around 5,500 units per quarter during the second half of the year. With a favorable product mix, our continued focus on maximizing operating efficiency while growing our leasing business aggregate gross margin remained strong at 18.2%. These improvements were partially offset by a $2,000,000 impact related to our European footprint rationalization.

Operating income reached nearly 84,000,000 or 11% of revenue. Although it was reduced by over $6,000,000 in European footprint rationalization costs. Our tax rate of 32% was higher than anticipated due to discrete items related to the Mexican peso.

Excluding the impact of European facility rationalization costs, core diluted EPS was 1.69 It's worth noting that diluted EPS this quarter also includes approximately 900,000 shares related to our 2028 convertible debt.

Our average share price exceeded the 55 strike price, causing additional shares to be included in the diluted share count. An impact of $0.4 per share.

And finally, we generated core EBITDA 124,000,000 or 16.3% of revenue.

For the twelve months ending 02/28/2025, our return on invested capital ROIC was 12.4%, marking 120 basis points sequential increase and within our 2026 target range of 10% to 14% that was announced two years ago. The continuing improvement in ROIC reflects the enhanced operating and capital efficiency generated by the execution of our Better Together strategy. Moving on to our balance sheet. Greenbrier's liquidity grew $23,000,000 from our previous quarter to over $750,000,000 This consisted of $264,000,000 in cash and $488,000,000 in available borrowing capacity. We generated approximately $94,000,000 in operating cash flow for the quarter, driven by strong operating performance and working capital efficiency. As we look towards the remainder of the fiscal year, we expect liquidity to continue to increase driven by strong operating results, working capital efficiency and increased borrowing capacity. Switching to capital allocation, we remain disciplined and committed to returning capital to shareholders through a combination of dividends, and share buybacks. Greenbrier's Board of Directors approved a dividend increase from $0.30 a share to $0.32 a share representing 7% increase. This is our forty fourth consecutive quarterly dividend and is a direct reflection of the confidence we have in our business. Additionally, we have $100,000,000 remaining in our share repurchase authorization, We remain committed to creating long term shareholder value and will continue to utilize this capacity opportunistically and within a framework of our broader capital allocation strategy.

Finally, we are updating our guidance for fiscal twenty twenty five. We are raising aggregate gross margin percent 100 basis points to the range of 17 to 17.5%, the 16% to 16.5% initially provided. We are also raising operating margin percent 100 basis points to a range of 10.2% to 10.7% from original range of 9.2% to 9.7%. New railcar delivery guidance has narrowed to a range of 21,500 units to 2,323,500 units.

Revenue is expected to be between 3,150,000,000.00 to 3,350,000,000.00 The revenue and delivery adjustments are primarily a result of our facility rationalization in Europe and production changes in North America. Investments in manufacturing are expected at $120,000,000 Gross investment in leasing has been reduced to $300,000,000 and partially offset by proceeds of equipment sales of 60,000,000 Updated guidance reflects better visibility into our mix and disposition of our production plan, for the second half half of fiscal twenty twenty five. In conclusion, I'm very pleased with our second quarter results as we continue to execute our strategy control what we can control, drive operating efficiencies and balance capital allocation ensuring value creation for our shareholders. Our outlook for fiscal twenty twenty five remains positive. And I'm confident in our ability to continue executing our strategy. Now, we'll open it up for questions.

I'll now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press star, then 1 on your touch tone phone. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. And your first question today will come from Ken Hoag with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Hey, Good afternoon. Brian. Michael, Laurie. And, Justin, congrats on on nineteen years. Can you talk a little bit about the downshift in the production? Is that solely it sounded like, Lori, you were saying it's not due to the closure in Europe you can maintain that, is that Is shift down to 5,000 units in the back half of the year quarterly Is that just due to decreased demand? Just want to understand what the message on lower the units increase the the margin opportunity is.

Sure, Ken. And sorry if that was a little bit confusing. So there will be a short term impact on our deliveries out of Europe, which is reducing our expectation for the second half of twenty twenty five, we are also adjusting some of our production rates or our lines here in North America based on as we manage our backlog and collaborate with our customers on when they need delivery. And so that's another adjustment to the second half delivery expectation.

That said, as you mentioned, we are increasing our aggregate gross margin and our operating margin expectations. So, this is part of what our focus has been, is to drive more through to the bottom line in a variety of markets.

Wonderful. I mean, great job. I mean, you've you've definitely talked about the insourcing and and executing on that. So I guess just maybe switching over to the leasing for a second. Can you talk about well, on the production, any is there I think you opened up with comments about the tariffs. Is there something we should expect in terms of costs? I know it's a full pass through in terms of if you're shifting from Europe to Mexico? I guess, is there any impact on tariffs? And then, any impact on the falling rates on the returns for leasing?

So I'll let Brian speak to kind of what he's seeing from a pricing perspective on our leasing. We are not shifting anything So, European facilities produce equipment primarily for the Western European market. We are not transferring anything from Europe over to North America. When I think about North America and I think about the tariffs, just to reinforce, we are not subject to tariffs because we're USMCA compliant. But certainly, the uncertainty in the market is being a headwind to demand around for some of our customers, particularly as they think through how this might impact traffic patterns. As you mentioned, we've navigated escalations and tariffs in the past, and our contracts do include pass through language. That said, we'll continue to work with our customers to navigate and mitigate any impacts from tariffs.

Yeah, Ken, I'll jump in.

And address the leasing second. But I just want to hit off what Lori just said is at the end of the day, we don't expect really any negative tariff implication on any of the pricing in the backlog. Obviously, we're going to work with our customers to the extent it makes sense. But we have plenty of tools in the toolkit that protect us from the downside.

On the leasing, there's an interesting opportunity as interest rates fall and as we watch spreads. We will react accordingly. But keep in mind that all of our debt on our leasing fleet is fixed at this point. So provides kind of a floor we do have some options, some call options where we could take advantage of the market should it present itself. As far as rates themselves go, we have seen kind of a leveling at very high levels. Don't see any retraction at this point. I think you see that from a lot of the other leasing companies as well, that lease rates and discipline around lease rates are holding, are holding quite well, in fact. I don't want to dominate, but just a quick follow-up there. You mentioned the pricing on the the new builds is holding steady. Just want to understand because guess, the average sell price just looking at the 400 and the $3.1 in backlog, It seems to be a I'm sorry, dollars 3,100 new cars added. Would be about 129,000 ASP per car. Which would be down 6% sequentially. So, you're saying that that is just solely mix and not anything on price?

Yes, it truly is, Ken. You know, you saw a a big buildup of auto in you know, as auto was coming out of COVID. That has kind of retracted with some of this tariff discussion. What's happened is we've seen a shift really to a lot of the domestic type products. So we've seen a lot of orders and inquiries around coiled steel cars gondolas for scrap, pipe cars for hauling pipe for the drill initiative that's going on in The U. S. Petrochemical tanks, really tanks of all description. So you're kind of moving from, you know, that jet big auto car kind of into more of your tank car [indiscernible] and hoppers.

Very helpful.

Thanks, Ken.

And your next question today will come from Harrison Bauer with Susquehanna. Please go ahead.

Great. Thanks for taking my questions today. Your working capital investment in lease railcars held for syndication rose each of the last two quarters. How are your customers in the syndication channel reacting to this uncertain environment? And how much visibility do you have into syndication sales over the next few quarters?

Yes, so I'll take first part and I don't Michael or Laurie, if you guys want want to jump in. It's Brian Harrison. So the syndication market continues to be very robust and liquid.

We've got a number of transactions that are teed up, one of which was delayed by about two weeks is all only because of some of their funding on the back end. But we have plenty of partners in place that are still wanting these good long lived good return assets.

And you said exactly what I was going to say, Brian. I mean, our investors our syndication partners, they look at these assets. These are forty to fifty year lived assets, they're coming with a lease that is long term in nature as well. So they look past anything that might be happening in the current environment.

And the only thing I would add, Harrison, Hey, Harrison, this is Justin real quick is it also comes down to timing of when we actually build the cars. So, you have kind of churn intra quarter and then you build the cars. You also are not going to be selling cars like partway through a schedule or partway through a job. So, it really is just timing. There is no change there and we continue to see a very liquid market with strong appetite for good leases.

Great. Thank you for the color there. And maybe on the secondary market, more broadly and how that's behaving, anything specific on on the price of lease attached cars, market debts and liquidity that would be helpful. Thank you.

Yeah. The secondary market continues to be very strong. We I think I addressed in my opening remarks that we had about 10% of our fleet We've got 55% of that renewed already.

And everything that we're looking at right now in the queue, we've got good strong renewal interest. Rates are holding well. We're not seeing much degradation at all.

So I feel very confident. And again, you think about it, the fleet is really compressed over the last few years since COVID. Think we're down a couple hundred thousand cars from the national total We're under $1,000,000 and we used to be over 1,100,000.0 to 1,200,000 cars. I think we're around 900,000.

So the fleet's really tight. Is my point, and it's getting older. So it's a I think it bodes well for both new originations as well as renewals on the existing fleet.

Great. Thank you all for the time today. Thank you, Harrison.

Your next question come come from Ken Hoexter with Bank of America with a follow-up. Please go ahead.

Hey, yeah. Just thanks. Just want to squeeze a follow-up in. In the in the release, you kind of lowered CapEx. Can you maybe talk a little bit about what what's being pulled out?

Yeah. Yeah, I can. This is Michael. You know, we've got better to the back half of the year. It's really just having having a good idea of what our production schedule looks like and what we're going to do a syndication standpoint. So I wouldn't read anything into that. We're still very, very much investing in the lease fleet and continue to kind of move forward with that.

Okay. So the lease fleet stays at the 300 and so it's it's just pulling out of manufacturing?

No. We are pulling back a little bit on what we're investing in the lease fleet this fiscal year. But again, that's timing associated with when cars are being produced and when they get capitalized onto the balance sheet. Our stated goal is up to $300,000,000 So it may vary, depending on the environment. And what the mix looks like in the portfolio that we have on our balance sheet. As Brian has said, many times, we're taking a very disciplined approach, making certain that we're not getting overweight in any particular car type or with any particular customer, or commodity that we're exposed to.

All right. Great. Thanks for the clarity.

Concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Justin Roberts for any closing Thank you very much for your time today. If you have any follow-up questions, please email investorrelationsgbrx dot com. Thanks and have a good evening.

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.