Gentex Corporation Price & Performance (GNTX)

Should one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialize, or should underlying assumptions or estimates prove incorrect, actual results may vary materially from those that we express today. Before we jump into our prepared remarks, I wanted to a moment to address our upcoming annual shareholder meeting and the proxy vote. As in prior years, Glass Lewis has recommended that shareholders vote against our Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee Chair, Ms. Leslie Braun, due to a lack of female representation on our Board. And so once again, we encourage shareholders to ignore Glass Lewis. In their explanatory documents, Glass Lewis claims to provide a comply or explain approach in their recommendations, In prior years, have attempted to explain our stance by reiterating our support from Ms. Brown. Is an exemplary member of our community and our board. We have also pointed to this continuing progress Gentex has made increasing the diversity of our Board's demographic background since 2016, when Ms. Brown first joined our board. This form of explanation does not seem to have hit home with Glass Lewis, so this year I will attempt a more direct approach. Recommending shareholders vote against a female board member is an illogical approach to increasing female representation on boards.

If Glass Lewis is in fact seeking increasing diversity on boards, Glass Lewis needs to update their policy to take into consideration the nominating and corporate governance chairs gender and demographic background before recommending a vote against. Glass Lewis also noted difficulty in identifying our board supported demographic breakout, While NASDAQ no longer requires this breakout, continue to follow Nasdaq's prior guidelines for disclosure. As such, this information is easily found. On our website in the board of directors section at ir.gentex.com and also included each year at the back of our annual reports. Our hope is that shareholders who use Glass Lewis' services would reach out to them to express support this logical approach. And at the same time continue to support Ms. Brown's role on our board. I would welcome any calls with investors who use Glass Lewis for their proxy voting recommendations and I'm happy to clarify Gentex's position on items contained within these reports. I will now hand the call over to Steve Downing for our prepared remarks. Steve? Thanks, Josh.

Deep breaths.

For the first quarter of twenty twenty five, the company reported net sales of $576,800,000 compared to net sales of $590,200,000 in first quarter of last year. In the first quarter, global light vehicle production production increased by approximately 1% compared to the first quarter of last year, but decreased 3% quarter over quarter in the company's primary markets of North America, Europe, Japan and Korea. Also during the first quarter, trim mix within the light vehicle production build weakened versus forecast across all major regions, but especially in our primary markets. The trim mix impacted take rates for several features, but especially our exterior mirror unit shipments, which were down 15% quarter over quarter in North America and 8% internationally. Overall, the weakness resulted in a sales shortfall of approximately 25,000,000 to $30,000,000 for the quarter. For the first quarter, the gross margin was 33.2% compared to a gross margin of 34.3% for the first quarter of last year. Compared to the first quarter of twenty twenty four, the gross margin declined as a result of lower revenue, unfavorable product mix and new tariff costs that began in the first quarter of this year. Sequentially, the gross margin improved by 70 basis points as a result of purchasing cost reductions and higher sales levels versus the fourth quarter of twenty twenty four.

Overall, despite the lower than forecasted revenue, and the weaker than anticipated mix, our sequential margin improvement in the first quarter resulted in a solid start to this calendar year. In addition to the revenue headwinds, the gross margin was also impacted by new tariff expenses of approximately $650,000 in the quarter that were not reimbursed during the quarter. We remain committed to the cost improvement initiatives already underway and we are actively expanding this program to help identify additional efficiencies to help offset the margin pressures that are likely to be created due to the pending tariff impacts. Operating expenses during the first quarter increased by 8% to $78,700,000 compared to operating expenses of $72,900,000 in the first quarter of last year. Total operating expenses for the first quarter of twenty twenty five were impacted by severance related expenses of $2,900,000 versus zero severance charges in the first quarter of last year. Operating expenses are moderating in 2025, which is in line with our expectations.

During the first quarter, the severance related expenses of $2,900,000 was primarily related to early retirement incentives offered to long tenured employees. Additionally, the company incurred one time expenses during the first quarter related to the VOXX merger of approximately $900,000 In total, the severance and merger related expense expenses accounted for nearly two thirds of the quarter over quarter operating expense growth, which means the core expense growth was less than 3% for the quarter. Income from operations for the first quarter was $113,000,000 compared to income from operations of $129,300,000 for the first quarter of last year. Other income was $600,000 during the first quarter compared to other loss of $1,700,000 in the first quarter of last year. The quarter over quarter change was driven by increased investment income as well as reduced losses on other investments. Versus the first quarter of last year. During the first quarter, the company had an effective tax rate of 16.5% compared to an effective tax rate of 15.2% during the first quarter of last year. The quarter over quarter change in the effective tax rate was driven by lower tax benefits on stock based compensation compared to the first quarter of twenty twenty four.

Net income for the first quarter was $94,900,000 compared to net income of $108,200,000 for the first quarter of last year. The change in net income for the first quarter was primarily driven by the changes in net sales and income from operations compared to the first quarter of last year. Earnings per diluted share for the first quarter were $0.42 compared to earnings per diluted share of $0.47 for the first quarter of last year. Earnings per diluted share for the first quarter were by the decrease in net sales and operating income partially offset by an increase in other income on a quarter over quarter basis. Thank you, and I'll hand the call over to Kevin for some further financial details. Thank you, Steve. For the quarter, automotive net sales in the first quarter were $563,900,000.0, compared to $577,600,000 in the first quarter of last year. Auto dimming mirror unit shipments decreased by 7% during the first quarter compared to the first quarter of last year. Other net sales in the first quarter, which dimmable aircraft windows, fire protection products and medical devices were 12,900,000.0 compared to other net sales of $12,600,000 in the first quarter of last year.

Fire protection product sales were $6,700,000 in the first quarter compared to $6,800,000 the first quarter of last year. Mobile aircraft window sales were $4,900,000 compared to $5,800,000 for the first quarter of last year. Other net sales for the first quarter also included biometric product sales of $900,000 as well as 400,000.0 in sales of the Ecite Go medical device which is in comparison to no sales for either of those products last year. Share repurchases. During the first quarter of twenty twenty five, the company re repurchased 3,100,000.0 shares of its common stock at an average price of $24.52 per share. As of March thirty one of twenty twenty five, the company has approximately 6,300,000.0 shares remaining available for repurchase pursuant to its previously announced share repurchase plan. The company intends to continue to repurchase additional shares of its common stock in the future in support of the previously disclosed capital allocation strategy but share repurchases will vary from time to time and will take into account macroeconomic issues, market trends, other factors the company deems appropriately. Shifting over to the balance sheet, The balance sheet comparisons mentioned today are as of March thirty one of twenty five and compared to December thirty one of twenty twenty four.

Cash and cash equivalents were 286,600,000.0 compared to 233,300,000.0 Short term and long term investments combined were 321,200,000.0 down from $361,900,000 which includes fixed income investments as well as the company's equity and cost method investments. Accounts receivable was $330,600,000 up from 295,300,000.0 due to the size and timing of sales during the quarter Inventories were $408,900,000 down from $436,500,000.0 and accounts payable decreased to $162,900,000 a decrease from $168,300,000 Looking at preliminary cash flow items for the quarter, First quarter twenty twenty five cash flow from operations was $148,500,000 compared to $129,900,000 for the first quarter of last year, Capital expenditures were $36,700,000 compared with $31,900,000 for the first quarter of last year. Depreciation and amortization for the first quarter was 25,500,000.0 compared with $24,000,000 for the first quarter of twenty twenty I'll now hand the call over to Neil for a product update. You, Kevin. In the first quarter of twenty twenty five, there were 21 net new nameplate launches of our interior and exterior auto dimming mirrors and electronic features.

It was again a busy launch quarter with approximately 60% of these net launches being advanced feature launches. For the advanced features in the quarter, full display mirror, home link, and outside auto dimming mirrors led the way. We're pleased to announce that we are shipping a Full Display Mirror and Cameras to execute a forward and rearward digital video recorder to Ford on the Transit and Porneo vehicles. This is a great and challenging launch for the Gentex team since it was the first launch of the Gentex review app. The review app allows you to connect them to the MIRROR and download the images or recordings from the DVR to the app on your phone. A great convenience to the consumer. There remains great interest in Full Display Mirror family of products, but as the vehicle production dates and volumes are changing, we're now forecasting 2025 increases in FDM shipments over 2024 to be approximately 100,000 units. Looking at the remainder of 2025, we are still expecting to announce an additional new OEM customer for FDM. We continue to remain focused on how to add greater value to the full display mirror product through the addition of new feature content, new display technology, and diving deeper into the user experience.

This product has been a great growth driver for us these past few years and we continue to invest in its evolution to stay ahead of the competition. Additionally, we're excited to announce that our first driver monitoring system launch is now available and has been shipping on the Rivian R1T and R1S vehicles. For this program, Gentex packages the camera infrared illuminators, and some local processing in the mirror while the overall driver monitoring algorithms are contained in a different module outside the mirror. This is the first of four different launches of driver monitoring we've been discussing. The other launches are still on plan to go into production later in 2025 and into early twenty twenty six. Gentex is an excellent innovation and technology company with a strong launch pipeline of automotive, and non automotive products. Even with the market conditions we're facing today, we are still seeing strong demand for full display mirror HomeLink, and several other new and exciting products we displayed at CES earlier this year. Like large area devices. So even though there are challenges, all of the R and D we've been investing in over the past few years will help us to recover and drive growth into the future.

I'll now hand the call back over to Steve for guidance and closing remarks. Thanks, Neil.

The company's current forecast for light vehicle production for the second quarter of twenty twenty five and full years 2025 and 2026 are based on the mid April twenty twenty five S and P global mobility forecast for light vehicle production in North America, Europe Japan, Korea and China. As a result of the current and expected tariff escalation in the China market, the company has proactively halted production of interior and exterior mirrors destined for customers in the China market. Subsequently, many of our customers based in China have canceled or paused orders at this time. While we work with these customers to better understand their ability and willingness to pay the elevated prices resulting from the new tariff rates. Currently, global light vehicle production is expected to be down 2% for the second quarter of twenty twenty five compared to the second quarter of last year. While light vehicle production in our primary markets of North America, Europe, Japan and Korea is expected to be down approximately 6% in the second quarter of twenty twenty five compared to the second quarter of last year.

Light vehicle production estimates for 2025 in North America, Europe, Japan and Korea have weakened significantly since the beginning of the year and is currently forecasted to decline approximately 5% compared to light vehicle production in calendar year 2024. The latest forecast for light vehicle production in North America estimates that the last three quarters of twenty twenty five will be down approximately 11% versus the same period last year. Lastly, light vehicle production for calendar year 2026 is now forecasted to be flat in our primary markets compared to calendar year 2025. Second quarter twenty twenty five and calendar years 2025 and 2026 forecasted light vehicle production volumes from S and P Global Mobility are shown in our press release from earlier this morning. Based on the current light vehicle production forecast, and actual results for the first three months of 2025, as well as the proactive decision of the company to halt production and sales of product in intended for the China market until customer agreements can be reached the company is making certain changes to its previously provided guidance for calendar year 2025 as follows. Revenue for the year in our primary markets is expected to be between $2,100,000,000 and $2,200,000,000 Revenue for 2025 in China is expected to be between 50,000,000 and $120,000,000 of which $43,000,000 was shipped to the China market during the first quarter of this year.

Gross margins for the year are expected to be between 3334%, Operating expenses are expected to be between 300,000,000 and $310,000,000 Our estimated annual tax rate is forecasted to be between 15,000,000 and 1717%, Capital expenditures are expected to be between 100,000,000 and $125,000,000 and depreciation and amortization is forecasted to be between 85,000,000 and $90,000,000 The company's revenue guidance has been updated based on the current tariff environment and provides additional detail regarding revenue from the company's primary markets while separately identifying revenue from the China market. This additional detail regarding the company's revenue is included for the time being to allow investors to better understand the company's exposure in the China market due to the impact that tariffs are expected to have on this market. Additionally, the revenue estimates above do not include any revenue from the recently completed merger with Fox. At this time, the company is withdrawing revenue guidance for calendar year 2026 due to the significant uncertainty surrounding the China market as a result of the impact of incremental tariffs on company exports to China, the economic impact of import and export tariffs on the company's primary markets, and work being done to finalize a more complete financial picture of the recently completed merger with Fox.

The company anticipates providing updated revenue guidance for calendar year 2026 once there is further clarity in the overall tariff landscape. On 04/01/2025, the company closed on the strategic merger of VOXX, a global supplier of automotive and consumer electronics as well as premium audio equipment. As of April 1, the company expected to add between $325,000,000 and $375,000,000 in revenue from the merger on an annualized basis and an expected revenue contribution to calendar year 2025 of approximately $240,000,000 to $280,000,000 before any impact from tariffs. As a result of recent tariff increases, the company has notified its new customers from the VOXX merger of future price increases that will take effect throughout the balance of calendar year 2025. These price increases may create uncertainty in consumer demand for this year, which could affect the expected revenue contribution from the VOXX merger. The company is also undertaking strategic sourcing decisions that will take place throughout the next six to twelve months, which are designed to significantly reduce tariff expenses on incoming products from the China market. The last few months have been undeniably chaotic as we work to understand the impact that tariffs will have on our supply chain and sales channels.

The extent of the impact to revenue for the year depends on how much our sales into the China market will be limited by the counter tariffs that are in place for our exports, as well as how much additional cost our OEM customers and consumers will be willing to pay for the additional import tariffs. While the tariffs will create some headwinds for the company, we still believe that the product portfolio and the new technology in development will provide a strong revenue trajectory over the next five years. In terms of profitability, we have made good strides in our gross margin recovery efforts and we'll continue to execute the plan as well as additional opportunities that the team has identified to improve the long term profitability of the business. In the short term, however, as we secure reimbursement for tariffs on imports, the gross margin percentage will be impacted as we add costs and reimbursements that don't include margin dollars. As we move through the year, we will be monitoring revenue closely and adjusting expenses to align to the market conditions. Lastly, the strength of the company's balance sheet puts us in a favorable position to capitalize on the pool in our share price as we consider higher levels of share repurchases.

That completes our prepared comments for today, and we can now proceed to questions.

Thank you. Star one one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. One moment for our first question. Our first question will come from the line of Luke Junk from Baird. Your line is open.

You. Good morning, everyone. Want to start with the topic of the day, Steve, tariffs and maybe if you could just walk us through what is kind contemplated in the current guidance in terms of top line impacts specifically, I would assume those are mostly production in And then from a margin and a cost standpoint, what's in guidance right now? And clearly, there's some things out there right now in terms of tariffs on electronics and semiconductors. Have you contemplated any of those things yet or maybe if you could just comment on what what the exposure might look like there as well? Thank you.

Yeah, so if you look at the I will start with the revenue. If you look at the China revenue that we provided in the press release, so that 50,000,000 to $120,000,000 range for the China market, that's down about $100,000,000 versus what our beginning of the year forecast was for the China market before the tariffs. So that one kind of encapsulates I mean, really, we are somewhere in the $220,000,000 to $240,000,000 range is what we had estimated for China at the beginning of the year. And so pretty significant impact there. Like we mentioned, of that low end, dollars 50,000,000, dollars 43,000,000 of it's what we already shipped in Q1. So, we're basically taking almost a worst case scenario saying on the low end, it would be as if really didn't ship anything else the rest of the year. And but on the high end saying, definitely not going to be what we expected the year to be. On the flip side of that, you look at our primary markets, that overall revenue came down roughly about $100,000,000 $150,000,000 versus our beginning of the year forecast. Is kind of that range that you're looking at. And that's really driven by the deterioration in the North American market.

I mean, really Europe and Japan, Korea are struggling too, but the North American market down 11% through the remainder of the year is where most of that impact is happening. A lot of it on the OEC side, definitely some on the FDM side versus our beginning of the year forecast On the margin side, really what we're looking at and the reason why we lowered the margin range for the year by 50 basis points If you run the numbers on what anticipated tariffs could look like for the year and you add that cost in and you add in the reimbursement for it, but then you back calculate your margin profile, it drops at 50 to 100 basis if we're only getting reimbursement and no margin dollars, which is obviously what we expect after going through this the last few years. We kind of know how these are going to be handled with our OEM customers, and that was kind of our expectation. Is that they all don't go away and that they do put about a 50 basis point at least headwind on our overall margin profile. Hopefully that helped Luke.

Okay. And then in terms of the box specific impacts, understand there's a lot of unknowns there right now, but maybe if you could just help us understand the footprint and what you're going to need to navigate as mostly China related?

Yeah, correct. So most of it is imports from China on the supply side. And so what we're through right now and the VOXX team has done a really good job of this is proactively looking for alternative suppliers globally. To help replace the supply chain that is in China market. Obviously, when you look at VOXX, the interesting part is, part of their business is just like ours, automotive requirements, and so that takes a little longer. On the consumer audio side, that's where they have some advantages. They can move quicker because of the ability to be self sufficient and really your own quality and improvement performance standards are what drives your ability to change locations. And so, they have a little more flexibility to move faster, on the audio side than what we have on the automotive side.

Got it. And then lastly, just the the updated FDM outlook. Steve Borneo, if you could just walk us through the permutations there, how much of this is Tremex related versus just the underlying volumes in North America? Thank you. Yeah, I think for at this point, the majority of that, Luke, is attributed to the volume impact that we're seeing. Especially in North America, as Steve mentioned, as that's significantly reducing in this last three three quarters.

From what we saw beginning of the year into where we are today looking forward [indiscernible] volume reduction has correlating impact to what we're seeing on the actual FDM potential.

We're still seeing growth. I think that's a really important part, right, even with all the chaos and with the reductions, we're still seeing some some decent growth of up to, let's say, hundred thousand units, but we do see some pullback a little bit just due to that reduction.

Got it. I'll leave it there for now. Thank you.

Thanks, Luke. Thanks, Luke.

One moment for our next question. Our next question will come from the line of Ryan Brinkman from JPMorgan. Your line is open.

Great. Thanks for the comments on China. That was my first question. You know, how you think your export focused business model may be holding up or how you expect it to hold up in the the current environment. On one hand, you import relatively little, but as we see, you're subject to these retaliatory tariffs. So is China the only region where you've experienced that so far? I think maybe there were some tariffs from Canada on parts that were suspended. And I recall in 2017, would maybe during the Section three zero one tariffs, you'd repurposed an existing warehouse in China.

Primarily distribution to also include some final assembly? Do you have any flexibility to do anything similar or the tariff rates maybe just prohibitively high in comparison to in 2017 for that help?

Yeah, so you're exactly right. Back then, what we had done is worked on a localization plan, meaning meaning that what we are buying locally were plastics, metals, more of the commodity based products. We are shipping board and element or especially elements. So the auto dimming element itself to China. And then our team in Shanghai was actually doing the final assembly to help lower the tariff rates and stay competitive in that market. Unfortunately, given the extreme level of these tariffs are at now, that's not going to be enough to really to be competitive or at least temporarily, there may be OEM who are willing to pay somewhat of a higher pay that higher price temporarily. But if these stay in place longer term, it will have a very severe negative impact on our ability to export out of The U. S. Into the China market.

That's another question I had was the comment about ceasing all production for the China market. Did I hear that right? Because I think is that because there's there's like inventory in the market that is interchangeable between OEMs and some are canceling, you can repurpose that because I would have thought that for like some of the high end German luxury brands, there would be that elasticity of demand there to pay that product. Are some of the customers maybe willing to pay or what are you saying?

Yes, mean, what we're seeing is some of them are starting to, but at the beginning, or we're working through those agreements right now. All we're saying at that point with our customers is saying, hey, given this new very high level of tariffs, we're not going put blood, sweat and tears into turning raw material into finished products and then have you tell us in a month that you're not going to pay the higher tariff rate. So before we continue to expend resources into producing those parts, we want a confirmation from OEMs before we'll spend that money. And so we're ready. We have the inventory. We can make them. As soon as a customer wants them, but we're not going to continue to build if they're unwilling to pay. On the flip side of that, we do have once the tariff rate started, we have parts already in transit and we have parts in our warehouse there. And so we do we did have several weeks of goods already available to them. And give us enough time to reach hopefully reach an agreement And then if we do get those agreements, we're ready to start back production right away.

Okay. And then just lastly, I'm curious what you might be hearing or might happen on May 3. I think we're going to recut some of the Section two thirty two tariffs and there's been some discussion of being able to net exports against imports. And I don't know how that works. It's your importing different components other than auto components. I'm not sure. But do you think that these tariffs might get better near term?

Are you cautiously optimistic on that front? Or Well, I think I think given the extreme levels, especially if you I mean, if you talk about the vast majority of this, I mean, the other tariffs you can work your way through. Really, what we're talking about on the severe impact side is the U. S.-China trade war. And so if you look at those, I think we're cautiously optimistic that it will be better than what the rates are right now that are being discussed. But one of the challenges it's been is, like you mentioned, there's verbal communication, there's rumors, innuendos. And so one of the things we're very focused on is we can't, you fight against an aberration. And so we're trying to make sure before we make any permanent decisions, what is actually gone into law, what's what's happening. And then we'll move based on the finality of those positions. I would say, it seems unlikely to me that this continues to be at the rates that they're technically at right now for a long period of time. But [indiscernible] are possible. And so that's where, why are we're just treading carefully and trying to be in constant communication with our customers about what do they want us to do.

So, it's not a very threatening position by any stretch. It's just saying, hey, we don't want to put you as a customer in a position where we're spending your money unwisely and we're definitely not going to do that with our own resources.

Very helpful.

Thank you.

Thanks, Ryan.

Thank you. One moment, for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Ron Yepsico from Guggenheim. Line is open.

Yes. Good morning and thanks for taking my question. [indiscernible] a point of clarification on the Section two thirty two tariffs on electronics, think the 50 to 100 basis points of margin pressure Is that in the guide or incremental to the guide just as a point of clarification?

That's in the guide.

Okay.

And was that impact on the full year or annualized? The 50,000,000 to 100 That was that was the 20 that was the impact of 2025.

Okay. No. That's helpful. Just as we think about the lap over. And I guess just stepping back on kind of the the China electrochromics market more broadly, I know there is some local competition, but any sense of what your market share is in in China specifically? And I guess is there enough local supply in China to to offset whatever mirror shipment volumes you may lose? Or will those products just have to go without ECs?

There's definitely, there's a lot of there's a lot of knockoff competition in the China market domestically. There's not enough supply right now inside of the China market to make up the volumes that we're producing. Especially on the OEC side. And so more than likely, if this continues, you'll probably see a lot of decontenting in the China market for those domestic Chinese OEMs. Because the supply base there wouldn't be able to pick up I mean, we're talking, I forget what it is, 3,500,000 mirrors or so that's you know, going into the outside mirrors that are going into the China market from Gentex today. So that's where you know, unfortunately, I think you know, if if this if this continues the way it's going without any relief on certain components, it's probably a de contenting that will have to happen inside the China market on our technology.

Yeah, and I imagine exports of would prefer Gentex as as the mirror supplier. Not to put words in your mouth, but given the the Yeah. Yeah. We've always done better with JVs or global OEMs that are doing business in the China market, definitely higher take rates and better product mix. But we're also selling to domestic Chinese OEMs as well. And the knock off guys will absolutely be able to pick up some of that volume, but nowhere near these. I mean, this is a tremendous amount capacity you have to have in place to produce that volume of mirrors. And so, they won't be able to pick that up in the short run very easily.

Okay. And then on just Vox, any kind of guardrails for dilution for this year and for 2026? Or should we still just kind of refer back to the potential cost savings from the initial announcement?

I mean, if you look at their margin expectations, I think post acquisition high 20s gross margin and probably close to breakeven from a net profitability, but pre tariffs before the conclusion or the consideration of what tariffs they have to consider. So not from a net profitability or EPS perspective, not really a dilutive impact.

Well, I think the plan is in the July call to have better guidance in terms of side by side what was Gentex as a standalone, what is VOXX as a standalone. And then you'll get to see a little more clarity on the impact of VOXX on overall and what that roll up So, the plan is to be pretty full disclosure in terms of the two different operating companies and what each of them mean.

Okay.

No. That's really appreciate the color, and thanks for taking my questions.

Thanks, Rob.

Next question comes from the line of Joseph Spak from UBS. Your line is open.

Thanks. Good morning, gentlemen. Sorry to do this, but can we just be a little bit clearer on what tariffs are actually assumed for like, are you assuming the $2.32 electronic and semis tariff go in or or or not, Like what about, I know there were some sort of counter tariffs from Europe And maybe you could just help us understand on a COGS dollar or percentage basis, like, what figure we're talking about here on the potential electronics or semi towers. I I know you're saying you're you're gonna pass it through, but I I just wanna sort better get a better framework around what what you really are are are thinking about here.

Yeah. So to be clear, yes, we're assuming that, yes, the tariff expenses are in there. And we're assuming right now it's probably going to be it's not going to be the worst case scenario. It's definitely not going to be a best case scenario. Kind of what we're modeling is somewhere in that $50,000,000 range and incremental cost of goods sold for the year, but we'll get reimbursement on those. And so if you run an extra $50,000,000 through top line and through the cost section, that's why you see the margin pulled back by 50 basis points. On a full year basis.

Okay.

And that's on the electronics as that includes a potential That's our That's our import.

Yep.

That's in our direct imports.

There's a little bit of there's some nuance there that's much more difficult saying, hey, if someone's a tier three or tier four supplier out of the China market to one of our sub suppliers, it's that takes a little more time to calculate exactly what your exposure is. To that as well. But that's kind of what our that's kind of what our thumb in the wind is right now for our estimate that we built these financials off of.

The European tariff primarily impacts the customers as well, but that's been also delayed Right. And that wouldn't hit that won't hit COGS. That's going to be in selling expense because it would be either the customer having to pay it or a little bit of our exports into the European market, we're responsible. But the vast majority of those are the OEM would be on the hook to pay those.

Okay.

And then just on on Vox, and it sounds like, you know, in response the prior question, like, we'll get we'll get a lot more details in the future. But like, if you look, it's it's like it was it seems like Vox is running about $35,000,000 a quarter OpEx. Is that Is that about right? And then how preliminarily are you thinking about elasticity for some of that Vox product to potentially having to raise prices. It's you know, I I I know you're probably still working through it, but think on our side, we have, you know, very little familiarity with that business. So any any commentary would be helpful.

Yes. Mean, you look at operating expenses, a lot of that has to do with being a public company, things like insurance so you a bunch of synergies that happen right away in the operating side, and we're going through a lot of those things right now, not to mention DNA from previous acquisitions. And so some of that stuff will get cleaned up, which is why we're not to give you a straight up OpEx number. And then on revenue side, you're absolutely right. The elasticity of what is a price increase to a consumer product look like the fortunate part that we have is that many of the competition of the VOXX entity, especially the Premium Audio Group, they're in the same boat, their supply chain is exactly the same. So it's not like one price increase of a product is not going to be met by a competitive price increase to somebody else. So yeah, mean, that's the thing that is the million dollar question of what does the price increase do to ultimate forecast and demand? So you may have increased revenue from the price but reduced units. The team, the VOXX team to their credit has been going through that already.

Really pretty much in advance. That's why we look forward to give you that in July.

Okay. Maybe I could just sneak one more in. I know you always provide the S and P [indiscernible] Think you sort of do that as a guide. You historically, I think, sort of made some of your own internal assumptions, especially for sort of the quarter ahead. Is that still the case? Or given an unusually higher level of uncertainty are you sort of more relying on what they're saying and I guess the follow-up to that would be is like, is your assumption that the assumptions they're making on what happens from a tower perspective in line with your company's thinking?

Yes, I'd start with you're exactly right. Historically, taken that as a kind of starting point. We would have told you that coming into Q1, that we were a little more pessimistic than the S and P beginning of the year forecast was. Not because of tariffs at the time, just in general economically. Since that time, this one is really wild, right? I mean, it is incredibly difficult We're kind of using it more as like a guidepost right now than anything else. Just because it's impossible to predict what are these economic moves do to overall consumer demand. And pricing. And so there's not a whole lot of choice We are probably a hair negative as it relates to the impact that this will have on trim packaging going forward. In other words, if these tariffs stick, lot of vehicles are going to see 20%, 30% price increases. And what does that mean for our type of products, right, which in essence are consumer discretionary products inside of the automotive market. And so we're probably a little even a little more negative than what S and P is. On their on their new forecast. Fortunately, though, they did take a pretty, pretty strong position their adjustment into the North American market, which we would have absolutely agreed with.

The question is, is it slightly worse than that even?

Fair enough. Obviously, lot of uncertainty. So, I just wanted to understand your your point of view. But thank you.

One moment for our next question. Our next question will come from the line of Josh Nichols from B. Riley. Your line is open.

Yeah. Thanks for taking my question. Obviously, tumultuous times in the automotive space, but good to see the company taking advantage of it on some very significant share buybacks.

Just for a little bit of clarity, like, piecing it all together, if you kind of take what you have for the core markets plus a little bit of China and then box [indiscernible] it works out, it looks like, 2,400,000,000.0 to 2,600,000,000.0.

Of revenue for the year. And once you layer in VOXX on the gross margin front, maybe you know, a 50 basis point headwind relative to what you guided to excluding VOXX. Is that fair?

I think I as a revenue, I think you have pretty much nailed in on the top line. I think the gross margins would probably be a little more of a headwind. Once we roll up theirs on top of ours, probably more than the probably more than 100 to 150, but I'm just, I'm shooting from the hip right now. As we're talking.

Yes. I appreciate that. And I guess we've talked about this before. But I guess you're taking a pretty conservative stance right, on China at the low end. It effectively assumes that what you've already shipped right? And there's nothing else really being done in in China. I guess, like, we have seen some rollbacks of some of these tariffs or pauses at the very least And it's hard to say because there's no definitive agreements, as you mentioned.

But if there is, you know, a significant alleviation in the terror rate between The US and China. I would assume that that's not really built into the forecast today that you have and that that would be kind of an upside optionality. How should we think about that? It seems like what you have out there right now is kind of more a pretty bare case scenario. Is that accurate?

Very accurate. I would say we felt like we needed to rip the band aid off because this is technically what the rates are as we stand. So we're trying to do our best to represent what we think the financials are under that scenario. And so, if like you said, if these push out and continue to push out or come down significantly, that should provide some upside to this forecast.

Perfect.

And then just we haven't touched on there's been so much focus on tariffs.

But you did mention, so you're still growing FDM, despite all the headwinds there, but also for the driver monitoring solution that's initially being rolled out. Could you talk about the expectations? I know probably not much revenue this year given everything that's going on, but next year and longer term, you've talked about that being a multi hundred million dollar a year business over a multi year time frame. Is that still the expectation? And what are you seeing in the market in terms of interest for that product?

Yeah, that's still the expectation that is driving that growth. With the launch this year, we've got two of them coming up late this year into the beginning 2026. Another one launching in early twenty twenty six. So that will be the four that we've been working on and talking about. The launches will take a couple of years as they go across multiple platforms. So when you get through 2026 and into 2027 and 2028, that's where you're you're starting to hit something that's significantly more material into the numbers that we've talked about before.

Appreciate the clarification there.

Reaffirming that. I'll hop back in the queue.

Thanks. Great.

Thanks, Josh.

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Next question comes from line of Mark Delaney from Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

Yes, good morning. Thanks very much for taking my questions. You mentioned that you expect to offset the higher costs of tariffs for imports into The U. S. With pricing. Maybe you can help us better understand your confidence in being able to fully offset those higher tariff costs and how far along are you in your negotiations toward that with your auto OEM customers?

Yeah, we're making really good progress. And fact, several OEMs were very and we've been through this before, right? So over the last few years, right or wrong, we've developed little bit of muscle memory as it relates to how to handle these. So this isn't the first time. A couple of years ago it was more difficult because we hadn't really dealt with this problem before. And so several of the OEMs are being very proactive as reaching out, talking about monthly updates on what we're seeing. Others are going to be a little more challenging, but our position is that this is a cost of doing business and this isn't something that the supply base can afford to eat on its own. This is pretty much a standard response from almost every supplier to OEMs as well. So we feel like the model's there, the messaging's loud and clear. There won't be I'm not saying it's gonna be easy or perfect, obviously, but I think it's going to be as challenging as it was last time. Because our customers understand the fragile nature of the supply base and the fact that, with these rates, one can afford to absorb any of this type of like level of cost Helpful, Steve.

Did want to follow-up as well on what you're seeing with industry production and thanks for all the detail you provided and how your trying to forecast the core business. Could you talk about what you're seeing with customer schedules at this point? Are you seeing OEMs adjust adjust their build plans? And is that part of your thought process?

And I know you referred to the S and P forecast as the guidepost, and there's a lot of uncertainty. Do want to understand what you've seen so far with customer schedules.

Yeah. I would say, you know, it's interesting. If you look at most of Europe and North America, the schedules have actually been pretty stable. There's not been a ton of movement there. Really, most of what we're seeing has been with the China market. And so it's, like we've mentioned, we kind of proactively stopped and then within a week or so, a week or two of that is when we started to see order cancellations or at least pauses in orders sliding out a few weeks. As the as our Chinese customers try to address what is happening and what their demand is to us. So, fortunately, that was good. I mean, we were able to proactively get in front of it. I mean, what I was most worried about is we build all these products and then we have them sitting on the dock and there's never a delivery date for those, right, which would be a worst case scenario for us. So right now, the customer communication has been really good. I mean, not all of not always the message is good, but at least the dialogue is happening. So we feel like we're not wasting money right now building products that will never sell.

So one last one for me, if I could please.

You mentioned you saw some deterioration of trim mix in the first quarter, and imagine that from tariffs because they generally hadn't taken effect yet.

Why do you think trim mix was softening in the quarter? Is that something broader macroeconomic trends, just the state of the consumer even before tariffs? Some of market share or what might be behind that in your opinion? Thank you.

Yeah, that's a great question. I think, for us, one of the things we always watch or things like incentives and what's happening with our OEM customers. And obviously, if you look in the North American market right now, most OEMs are often some type of incentive package, rebates, you name it.

Free financing. And so for us, that's usually one of the early that OEMs also are going to move into a cost cutting mode. So, unfortunately, for a lot of our products, especially outside mirrors, a lot of OEMs will look for a way to cut the cost of a vehicle by removing some content and hopefully consumers not noticing it. Passenger side, auto dimming mirrors are one of those classic parts that OEMs will look to remove if they think they can get away with it without the customers getting upset. So we saw a lot of that in Q1. Which was obviously disappointing because we put a lot of capital in place to support OEC production levels. And so it was not an efficient operating environment to say the least.

Thank you.

Thank you.

Moment for our next question. Our next question will come from the line of Charlie Sloan from Oak Family Advisors. Your line is open.

Good morning, guys. And, I need to not talk about tariffs but I'm going to try to avoid that conversation.

Josh, are you saying then that the chairperson nominee is a woman? Can you believe it? Yes, I am. Thank you for clarifying, Charlie. Okay.

Okay. I was I just wasn't sure of the definition, but okay. That's helpful. And then secondly, you know, in the release, noticed that there was a change in tone regarding you know, I would have thought that you guys would have talked about you know, in the past about maybe increasing your line of credit make sure that you have availability And but this time, it's more about you guys feel pretty secure in your financial position to actually use some of the capital that you've created because of your excellent operating manufacturing capability and and buy things that are really cheap like your own stock. And is that a change in tone that you sense yourself or is that just a change in board direction or something?

No. I think it's really the change in tone is really we feel like understanding the market we're in we understand some of the pullback in the industry, but we think this is way overdone in terms of our share price. And that's why you see us get a little more aggressive on the share repurchase side. On the line of credit piece, we haven't drawn on it yet because even with finalizing the VOXX acquisition, we're still in a great spot from a overall cash standpoint. We're open to drawing on that, even if that were to mean share repurchases. So we have an existing line credit that's already available to us that's more than enough of what we need. And we're definitely in a position to be ready to become more aggressive if the stock continues to linger kind of in this range.

Excellent.

And then secondly, then on the Box acquisition, that closes when? Is it closed now?

It closed on April 1. Okay. April 1.

Okay. And then oh, what product are you most excited about as you look forward in terms of material contribution to the revenues two years in.

From the box or from in total?

Actually, each.

From Gentex I'll call it old fashioned Gentex to the box.

Yep.

So I'll start with the the of the core Gentex. So our primary things that we look at and say are very exciting from a long term growth standpoint are the driver monitoring systems that Neil was talking about. And then we move into large area devices, visors, sunroof, side windows, core electrochromic technology, basically replacing a lot of the glass surfaces and substrates that you see in a vehicle today. All very exciting. I would say our new place product so our new line of fire protection devices that are designed to go direct to consumer It's kind of our first time going direct to consumer with an all new feature set that no one's seen in the fire protection or security space before. We just launched that now. And longer term, you look at some of the [indiscernible] our work in the medical space, so the eSight Go, the wearable for people with centralized vision loss. And then some of the other partnerships that we put in place, starting to expand our capability. And like you mentioned, our manufacturing expertise, in the medical and med tech are very exciting. On the VOXX side, one of the things that we're excited about in there is their biometric technology that they had that we've been working on for a while.

And so getting a deeper a deeper tech base into the biometric space we think will be very interesting for us. Some of the automotive electronics are also very interesting. One of them in particular is VOXX was a supplier for the USPS postal trucks for vision systems. We believe there's a lot of opportunity to come up with a Gentex version of that product, which is U. S. Genealogy. Guaranteeing security and electronics made in The U. S. For that vehicle. And then also the premium audio space. As we talk about our play in home automation with our place product, home audio, we think, is a big part of that, that we can help expand kind of the HomeLink brand and what we call our HomeLink Smart Home Solutions brand into the home Okay.

That's great. I hate to not talk about tariffs, but the business is long No. I I appreciate the break.

Yeah, right. [indiscernible] Yeah. There's no way to forecast any of this.

I mean, you guys have laid out pretty much a barricade. In our mind. It it in in in correct correct terms. You know? It's you guys can't forecast what the next week's gonna be. You have to rely on the law.

Right? That's correct. Yeah, So anyway, great quarter. Keep up the good work.

Thank you.

Thanks, Charlie. Thanks, Charlie.

One moment for our next question. Our next question will come from the line of James Picariello from BNP Paribas. Your line is open.

Hi. Good morning, everybody.

Morning.

I've got I'm I'm heading back to the China question real quick. I apologize.

You're guiding to the $85,000,000 in sales for the full year. You recorded $43,000,000 in the first quarter. So I just I assume what's baked in is another $42,000,000 in the second quarter before you halt production.

My ultimate question is, Gentex shipped any units to China since the April 11 trigger date?

Of the 100% plus tariff? Like do you have tariff costs that you already need to fight for recoveries?

Yeah, there might've been one shipment that was already kind of in process happened technically after that date, but we haven't actively shipped anything since then. But remember, we have a warehouse in China And so it has usually anywhere from seven to ten, twelve days of inventory on-site. And then usually there's another week or so of inventory in transit that's on the surface or in the air. By the time these things go into effect. So that's where we look at say, hey, we know there's some amount of that. That stuff should be able to sell easily because it was already in before the date. And then we know there'll be some demand to despite the tariffs even if they stick around at this level where OEMs will need some parts just to get through a few week period until they can have a workaround And so that's where we come up with that estimate. It's kind of like we mentioned before, kind of a I would say, it's probably a worst case scenario.

Yep. Okay.

No, that makes sense. That's pretty that's very clear. And then based on last year's $2.00 8,000,000 or so in revenue in China, there any way to size up just what constituted interior versus exterior mirrors mix?

And if there were any FDM shipments to the region?

Yes, that should have been roughly fifty-fifty, I think. I'm definitely taking a taking a hip shot with that one. But if you look at it, it should have been somewhere in probably 1,000,000 IECs and probably 3,000,000 or so OEC I think would be my estimate there. Kevin's can put in further detail to prove I'm wrong, but that's just kind of a rough breakout. And we can follow-up with you too. If you would like that detail.

The STM Virtually none. Yeah.

Yeah. Yeah.

All right. Thank you, guys. [indiscernible] Thank you.

And this concludes our question and answer session. I will now turn it back over to Josh for any closing remarks.

Thank you, everyone, for your time and attention today and the good questions. Hope everyone has a good weekend.

Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect. Everyone, have a great day.