GRAIL, Inc. Price & Performance (GRAL)

Thank you, and thank you all for joining us today. On the call are Bob Ragusa, our Chief Executive Officer Aaron Frieden, our Chief Financial Officer Doctor. Joshua Offman, our President and Sirhopal Kumar, our President, International Business and Biopharma. Before we get underway, I'd like to remind everyone that we'll be making forward looking statements on this call based on current expectations. Our intent that all statements other than statements of historical fact made during today's call including statements regarding our anticipated financial results and commercial activity, will be covered by the Safe Harbor provisions for forward looking statements contained in Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 as amended. And Section 21 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 as amended. Forward looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties Actual events or results may differ materially from those projected or discussed. All forward looking statements are based upon currently available information and GRAIL assumes no obligation to update these statements. To better understand the risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ, we refer you to the documents that Grail files with the SEC. Including the Risk Factors section in Grail's most recent quarterly report on Form 10 Q and the company's upcoming annual report on Form 10 ks.

This call will also include a discussion of GAAP results and certain non GAAP financial measures. Including adjusted gross profit and adjusted EBITDA, which are adjusted to exclude certain specified items, including accounting impacts related to Illumina's acquisition of Grail GRAIL. Our non GAAP financial measures are intended to supplement your understanding of Grail's financials. Reconciliations of non GAAP measures to most directly comparable GAAP financial measures are available in the press release issued today which is posted to our website. And with that, I'll turn the call to Bob. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us to review results for fourth quarter and full year 2024. 2024 was a transformative year for GRAIL GRAIL we separated from In July, we completed final study visits for our two registrational studies, the NHS Galleries Study and Pathfinder II. In the third and fourth quarters, we implemented a significant restructure intended to extend our capital runway past some major anticipated milestones including the completion of our modular PMA submission, for FDA approval of Galleri.

In addition, we grew U. S. Gallerie revenue 45% year over year, selling more than 137 We are pleased with Galleries commercial momentum and are excited to progress initiatives to make it easier for physicians to order the test, including our recent integration in into Quest Diagnostics test ordering system. This integration enables easy ordering for more than 500,000 physicians allows patients to access the Gallerie test at 7,400 Quest locations nationwide without needing to bring along a test kit. To discuss some additional recent highlights, I'll hand it over to Grails President GRAIL, Doctor. Josh Hoffman.

Thanks, Bob.

As you may know, Gallerie was designed to be utilized at population scale And we've continued to enhance our technology and our laboratory infrastructure to enable all this future growth. Over the past several years, we've been working on an updated version of Gallery. Which will enable efficient growth and support testing at scale. At the end of twenty twenty four, we rolled this enhanced version out. Which includes a reduced panel size, allowing us to lower sequencing costs and to run approximately four times the number of samples on every flow cell. Additionally, the testing workflow is now both fully automated and integrated. We've been able to eliminate numerous manual steps in the lab, allowing for much greater efficiency. The implementation of these updates has substantially expanded our lab capacity. And we do not anticipate any additional CapEx investment will be needed to support our expected volume for the foreseeable future of the next several years. We began offering this version of the test in December and expect to see COGS improvements as we continue to scale. We're also really pleased that the U. S. Military's TRICARE health insurance program has added the Gallary Test, to the approved list of lab developed tests as a covered benefit for patients who are 50 years or older, with an elevated risk of cancer.

This addition came after the Defense Health Agency reviewed Galleri to determine if it met TRICARE requirements for both safety and effectiveness. We're currently working with TRICARE's carriers to implement this new offering.

We're really pleased with the progress we've made since Grow was founded in 2016.

The Gallerie test is identifying deadly cancer in asymptomatic adults in clinical care today. We continue to demonstrate our scientific leadership in this emerging field to completely transform how we screen for cancer and to dramatically improve the cancer detection rate in the population. Continue to make progress on our modular FDA submission and we're looking forward to continuing to help individuals and their families detect cancer early when it can be cured. To discuss our fourth quarter financial results, I'll hand it over to Grail's Chief Financial Officer, GRAIL Fried. Thanks, Josh, and good afternoon, everyone. I'm pleased to present results for our fourth quarter and the full year of 2024. Fourth quarter results were strong with revenue of $38,300,000 up $7,900,000 or 26% as compared to Q4 twenty twenty three. Total revenue for the quarter is comprised of $31,600,000 of revenue and $6,700,000 of development services revenue. Development services revenue includes service including support of clinical studies, pilot testing, research and therapy development.

Full year revenue was $125,600,000 up 35% from full year revenue in 2023. 2024 full year revenue was comprised of $108,600,000 discreteing revenue, up 45% over full year 2023 and in line with our narrowed guidance in the fall of 40% to 50% growth.

Revenue also included $17,000,000 of development service revenue a decrease of 6% from 2023.

We see continued demand for our Gallary test, and sold more than 40,000 tests in the fourth quarter in a total of approximately 137,000 tests throughout the year.

Screening revenue of $31,600,000 in the fourth quarter was up 39% as compared with the fourth quarter of twenty twenty three.

Primarily based on increased sales volumes. Development service revenue in Q4 twenty twenty four was $6,700,000 decrease of 13% as compared with the fourth quarter of twenty twenty three. Net loss for the quarter was 97,100,000.0 million dollars an improvement of 48% as compared to Q4 twenty twenty three. Net loss for the full year was $2,000,000,000 increase of $561,000,000 or 38% as compared to full year 2023.

Net loss was primarily driven by goodwill and intangible asset impairments.

Non GAAP adjusted gross profit for the fourth quarter of twenty twenty four was $17,900,000 an increase of $2,600,000 or 17% as compared with Q4 twenty twenty three. Primary drivers of the increased margin were revenue mix and efficiencies of scale related to increased gallery volume. Full year non GAAP adjusted gross profit was $57,800,000 an increase of $17,600,000 or 44% as compared with full year 2023. Adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter of twenty twenty four was negative $84,000,000 representing an improvement of $39,400,000 or 32% as compared to Q4 twenty twenty three. Adjusted EBITDA for the full year 2024 was negative $483.5 an improvement of $40,300,000 or 8% as compared to full year 2023. We ended the year with a cash position of $766,800,000.0 We are focused on driving growth efficiently and reducing our spending profile. In 2024, we made significant strides here. We plan to continue to reduce burn in 2025. In January, we guided that we expect cash burn for [indiscernible] a projected decrease of more than 40% over our cash burn in 2024. As we've shared before, cash runway extends into 2020 enabling us to achieve major milestones such as readouts of our registrational studies, and completion of our modular PMA submission.

I'll turn it back to Bob for concluding remarks. Thank you, Aaron. Since the separation from Illumina in June of last year, have made great progress as a public company We have seen strong growth for Gallerie, improved our cost efficiency and recently completed a major initiative to launch the new version of the test preparing us for scalability. We believe we are in a strong financial position and are pleased with the momentum we are seeing as we continue to drive multi cancer early detection from an idea towards becoming a new standard of care. We are in the final stages of data collection for our registrational studies are looking forward to readouts as well as completion of our modular PMA submission with the FDA in the first half of twenty twenty six. We are grateful to our employees for their incredible commitment and dedication to our mission to detect cancer early when it can be cured. We'll now turn the call over to Q and A. Operator, please go ahead. [indiscernible] at the bottom of your screen. You may remove yourself from the queue at any time by lowering your hand. When it is your turn, you will hear your name called and receive a prompt to unmute.

As a reminder, we are allowing analysts one question and one related follow-up today. The first question is from Doug Schenkel at Wolfe Research. Please unmute Okay. Good afternoon. Thank you for taking my questions. And I'll just think I have two, and I'll just throw them out there and get out of the way. First, I think it's a Josh question regarding essentially the new gallery, if you will. Would you be able to share A little more detail on how the lower COGS per test allows you to be more flex And, you know, maybe more importantly, I'm just wondering if in the early going, you're seeing anything to suggest that lower pricing will actually result in actual true elasticity for the test in terms of demand. So really a question about how low COGS can go how much it allows you to change pricing and whether you're seeing any evidence of elasticity in the market? And then the second topic is more of a current events question on [indiscernible] And, our understanding is that this that essentially that that the bill was reintroduced in the House a couple of weeks ago. I'm wondering if you could share anything in terms of what you're hearing and what might come next there.

Thank you very much. Great. Thank you, Doug. Hey, Josh.

Let me take it first and I'll go are two.

Trevor, Yes. So I appreciate the questions. So on the new version of the test, as Josh mentioned, it's prepared remarks, we're able to put significantly more samples on. So 4x the number of samples due to a more focused panel So clearly, we have a near term reduction in variable reduction In terms of the longer term and any price elasticity, we really look at this platform to be able to build out the scalability and the long term cost structure that we'll need in order to meet what we think kind of population scale pricing and margins will get to. And so we won't see the, you know, the fixed cost leverage on the automation that Josh referred to for, you know, for a period of time until volumes volumes really build. So we haven't done the elasticity testing with it. And so we'll you know, it's really a future proofing and to get us to the scalability and cost structure that we know we'll need over the long term. Josh, any pieces to add on that?

No, just that we'll be it's early days. And as volumes increases, we'll be able to take advantage of that scalability. But Not today. Yeah.

And then on the legislation, so we remain encouraged by the reintroduction, by the momentum, the stakeholder groups that have been advocating for this, you know, remain remain very strong and vocal We continue to have bipartisan bicameral support. For the bill. So, you know, a lot of good good momentum really looking for, you know, the right vehicle and to be able to move it forward. But again, you know, I would say no no real change in the level of support for it. And Josh, maybe I don't know if you have any other color to add.

No. I think that's right. We're, you know, it's got great support, bicameral, bipartisan, it's been reintroduced, and we're hopeful that in one of the moving vehicles either the first spending bill or in reconciliation that it'll get it'll get seriously considered. Thank you again, guys.

The next question is from Teja Sabant from Morgan Stanley. Please unmute yourself and begin with your question. Please unmute yourself and begin with your question. [indiscernible] Hi, this is Jason on for Tejas. Congratulations on the quarter and thank you for taking our questions. So maybe just starting off on the recent collaboration with Quest Diagnostics, Can you share what's embedded in your 2025 guide regarding collaboration and confirm if those incorporated in your pre announcement from mid January? And And similarly, on a similar note, the TRICARE news, was this incorporated in your mid January twenty twenty guide or do they represent social sub upside Aaron, you want to take that?

Yes, definitely. Yes. So we're excited about both these opportunities as Josh really elaborated on for both Quest. And TRICARE. Quest is going to make the test directly available to be ordered through their patients won't need to kit to go with their blood drawn and so on. [indiscernible] Very very excited in working with the payers to implement coverage. Far as guidance goes, you know, we contemplated several things.

And opportunities for the U. S. Gallerie next year.

And right now, there's no change to our 25 guidance.

Got it. Thank you. And then guess just following up on Doug's question on the MSED legislation. So I believe there's a December bill that mentioned reimburse twenty February in the Senate, which had reimbursement beginning in 2028. Could you share your thoughts on how these timelines align for expectations? And then on a related note, I believe the bill in February also mentioned reimbursement in line with multi target stool screening test. So does that potential reimbursement rate for MSAT test also align with your expectations? Thank you. [indiscernible] on the first piece in terms of the timeline, piece in December was what was negotiated back and forth and then you know, what's what's currently in there is just kind of resetting back to the to the beginning position. So as it gets reintroduced, it's kind of back in the beginning starting position for the bill. The pricing you know, the pricing is referenced in that as well, you know, similar to, the current current market for stool based testing. So that seems to be accurate GRAIL.

I'll just tie it back. Sorry, just to tie it back to the conversation on COGS and margins. We've we're saying we've implemented this new version in contemplation population scale. So we've contemplated that pricing in that endeavor.

Thank you. Appreciate the color.

The next question is from Subbu Nambi from Guggenheim Partners. Please unmute yourself and begin with your question.

Hey, guys. It's Thomas on for Subaru. Thanks for taking our questions. Just to start maybe one on Pathfinder two. Curious to know what success looks like for you guys for that study Any color on what sort of readout you're looking for, maybe any endpoints as well? And then obviously acknowledging it's early days when would you call it, say, if it wasn't playing out to expectations? And Josh, do you want to jump in on that one? Sure. So as you remember, Pathfinder two is a U. S. Study single arm interventional trial where we're really evaluating the safety and the performance of Galleri in an adult U. S. Population over the age of 50.

With elevated risk for cancer. So really, the the main endpoints of that study are going to be traditional measures of test performance the diagnostic evaluation, the workups, the specificity, sensitivity, predictive values. And then on the safety issue, obviously, the traditional safety measures of complications associated with workups and whether individuals continue to get their standard of care screening And that's all very similar to what was in Pathfinder one as well. And so we will read that study out and it will be part of our final modular submission to the FDA in the first half of twenty twenty six. And so I guess that probably answers your question.

GRAIL. That's helpful. And then just one follow-up on a separate note on cash. As you closed out 2024, can you speak to what cash preservation initiatives may have done to efforts to get more payer coverage? I know there's the recent announcement that you on the call, but any new color on longer interim longer term impacts there? [indiscernible] no change from what we'd communicated at JPMorgan in prior The restructuring we completed last year before last year gives us cash runway to 28 With decreasing over the coming years as we get there?

Awesome. Thanks, guys.

And the final question is from Karl Mixon from Canaccord. Please unmute yourself and begin with your question. Hi, everyone. This is Alex on for Kyle Nixon.

So obviously a major topic of discussion has been the company's spending and burn profile. Obviously, there continues to be a lot of uncertainty related to AMSSA legislation, which is noted earlier in the call. So if your total FDA submission and approval timelines ultimately either meaningfully elongated or shortened, could this impact your cash burn? Thanks.

Yeah. So currently, our plans for FDA and PMA submission are the first half of twenty twenty six. We see cash runway into 2028. So we believe we've built in some cushion and some flexibility there. To to cover any sort of delay if that were to happen. Today, sitting here confidently, though, with our first half of twenty twenty six, timeline, And Bob, Josh, anything else you guys want to add? Yes. No, I just think the as Aaron mentioned, we have built in some buffer. We wanted part of choosing to do the restructure and drive our cash runway into 2028 is to give us some level of flexibility.

We believe that's built in.

Got it. Thank you. And one quick follow-up. So in January 25, President Trump announced Oracle OpenAI and SoftBank. Joined forces to launch Stargate. Essentially a lot of funding going towards AI and Larry Ellison actually noted early cancer detection and AI could kind of team up join forces over time. I was curious if any of this any of this news impacted results in 1Q at all? Far? Thank you.

Yes.

So we think that's more of a longer term opportunity. It was great to see It's great to see, you know, cancer in the forefront as the killer and kind of the killer application for, you know, AI that was called out in in that press conference. But in terms of Q1 impact, I don't think we'll see anything there.

Got it. Thank you.

Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back to Grails for closing remarks.

So thank you everyone for joining the call today.

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the call. You may now disconnect.