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Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to our first quarter twenty twenty five earnings call. On the call, have Mark Stewart, our CEO and President and Christina Zamaro, our Executive Vice President and CFO. During this call, we will refer to forward looking statements and non GAAP financial measures. Forward looking statements involve risks, assumptions and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those forward looking statements. For more information on the most significant factors that could affect future results, please refer to the disclosure sections of the supporting presentation for today's call and our filings with the SEC. These materials can be found on our website at investor.goodyear.com where a replay of this call will also be available. A reconciliation of non GAAP financial measures discussed on today's call to the comparable GAAP measures is also included in the appendix of that presentation. With that, I will now turn the call over to Mark. Thank you, Greg, and good morning, everyone, and welcome to our first quarter earnings call. We're building on our momentum with a strong start to the year, driven by solid operational execution during the first quarter. As we look at our results, Goodyear Forward Workstream delivered US200 million dollars of benefit the single highest amount we've realized in any quarter as part of the program since we launched.
11m 8s
At the same time, we're progressing on planned asset sales and positioning the company's balance sheet for competitiveness as we move forward. This kind of consistent execution is critical. As we work through significant inflation in our raw material costs in the first half of this year, is also what creates the power behind our full year outlook and what gives me confidence in our ability to deliver on our good year forward target at the end of this year. Turning to the business environment, light vehicle production has become significantly more uncertain in the near term as the industry reacts to friction and global trade. We remain well positioned in our consumer OE business with our mix of luxury, EV and light truck fitment wins. As you've seen in our results, we continue to demonstrate significant growth in the OE market share in The U. S. As well as EMEA. Importantly, we remain confident in the continued strength of our value proposition with our OEM customers going forward. In consumer replacement, first quarter industry volume followed recent trends with the low end imports out outperforming industry members in both The U. S. And in EMEA. With that as a backdrop for us in the first quarter, we gained share in the more profitable 18 inches and greater rim size, And that segment, as you know, is very important for us and we outperformed industry members in the quarter.
12m 31s
Delivering outsized growth in this profitable segment is key to our strategy and we're making tremendous progress as we work towards fully unlocking our potential to maximize the larger rim size opportunities. To do that, we're demanding efficiency in our manufacturing operations and achieving that. We're leveraging the strength of our global business and our product offerings and partnering with aligned distributors to ensure our product are available to consumers across all market channels. We've also assigned David Ankhart to be our product Strategy Leader coming from a strong background in engineering as well as consumer sales EMEA David is leading the charge for that with us together with our engineering leader Chris Helfel. As we shared with you on our last call, one of the ways we're driving growth in the premium segment is through unprecedented number of new product launches. As one example, this quarter, we extended the lineup of our industry leading ultra high performance summer tire, the Goodyear Eagle F1 Asymmetric six. We will increase this line's offering to nearly two fifty SKUs this year making it the largest ultra high performance summer tire offering ever Goodyear's history. And this tire comes with an entitlement to compete.
13m 52s
Our products are perfectly positioned and continue to set the benchmark in the industry. The Asymmetric six was recently awarded auto builds top spot in this year's summer tire test. It has also propelled Goodyear to be named the top manufacturer of the year for the 25 summer season. As you all know, we have planned for multiple product launches in The U. S. This year as we build out our suite of power lines, we're also growing our offering of Cooper products. As well. Sellout of Cooper branded products during the first quarter at retail was strong, In fact, it's been gaining momentum. We have very high expectations for this offering and the coming quarters. Turning our views on The U. S. Replacement industry moving forward, we don't yet have a clear read as to whether import flows coming into The U. S. Are slowing based on recently announced tariffs. Our base case assumes there's still some lag due to the long supply chains, particularly out of Southeast Asia. In any case, the timing is right. The timing is right to evolve and to build out our product portfolio. Likewise, the timing is right. As we discussed with you last quarter, for the ramp up of our U. S. Factory modernization programs increasing our capacity by 10,000,000 additional premium tires this year in 2025 and next year in 2026.
15m 15s
The timing is also right as we've made major upgrades as to how we're we've connecting with our consumers. You may have noticed we recently launched an awesome marketing campaign called Still Goodyear. Which launched during the NFL draft a few weeks back. It's truly a powerful testament to Goodyear's legacy, and our excellence in performance and innovation. In short, we're focused on each of the elements critical to driving success in our U. S. Business and we are ready to capture all opportunities for profitable volume as the year unfolds. Before I move on from replacement, I wanted to briefly comment on our Asia Pacific business, where we saw the majority of our replacement volume decline during the quarter. Asia Pacific's lower volume was largely driven by intentional choices we made as a team to exit less profitable low margin replacement business outside of China. Like our other region, AP is focused on power line introduction in new luxury and EV products. Where we saw 25% growth in volume during the quarter. With this momentum, we expect to see sequential improvements in Q2, with a gearing again towards growth. In the second half of the year. As we look at Asia Pacific's performance for the quarter, and after adjusting their results for the sale of the OTR business, the region delivered year over year earnings growth and SOI margin improvements of about 200 basis points.
16m 43s
Looking ahead, it's nearly certain that we will continue to see some volatility in our markets related to U. S. Trade policy, for Goodyear as the largest U. S. Manufacturer already delivering on a turnaround through a major transfer transformation program, it's also clear that we have a lot of opportunity in front of us. Underpinning all of the improvement we are making to the core business is our success of the Goodyear Forward program. We are now six quarters in and we have met or exceeded each of our quarterly targets along the way. It is not only that we're delivering on our planned savings, we're also changing the expectations to a culture of high performance here at Goodyear. To one of no excuses, and to one where we are always focused on winning. As we've defined winning. We will continue to diligently adapt to the global trade landscape and developments in the macroeconomic environment ensuring we take action to mitigate headwinds when required, but more importantly, ensuring that we are squarely lined up to take advantage of every opportunity the market affords going forward. Now I'll turn it over to Christina to take you through the financials and we'll move on to the Q and A. Thank you.
17m 59s
Thank you and good morning everyone. As Mark mentioned, we've made significant progress on our deleveraging goals this year with the sale of our OTR business in February and as we announced last night, the finalization of the sale of Dunlop to SRI. Thank you to all of our associates who have worked to deliver these tremendous outcomes as part of Goodyear Forward. Under the Dunlop sale agreement, Goodyear will continue to manufacture sell and distribute Dunlop branded consumer tires in Europe through a transition period that will last through the end of this year. During this time, we'll pay a royalty to SRI on Dunlop sales, but we'll otherwise retain all profits. Beginning next year, we'll supply tires to SRI under an offtake agreement for a period of up to five years. Further details about the transaction can be found on our investor website in a separate presentation. I'll note that the Chemicals business remains under strategic review, and we are engaged with multiple interested parties on this potential transaction. We'll share more as we're able to in the future. We continue to expect to generate gross proceeds of at least $2,000,000,000 from assets sales as part of Goodyear Forward.
19m 12s
Turning to our first quarter results. I'll begin with the income statement on Slide nine. First quarter sales were $4,300,000,000 down 6% from last year, given lower volume and unfavorable foreign currency translation. Unit volume was 5% lower driven by declines in consumer replacement volume in Asia Pacific and Americas. Gross margin declined 70 basis points. On the other hand, SAG costs were lower $46,000,000 which relates to Goodyear Forward. Segment operating income for the quarter was $195,000,000 and slightly ahead of our expectations. Good year net income increased to $115,000,000 driven by a $260,000,000 gain on the sale of the OTR business. Our results were impacted by other significant items, including rationalization charges of $81,000,000 After adjusting for these items, our loss per share was $04 Turning to the segment operating income walk on slide 10. The sale of the OTR business reduced earnings $12,000,000 during the first quarter. After this change in scope, our segment operating income declined $40,000,000 versus last year. Lower tire unit volume and factory utilization were a headwind of $52,000,000 Price mix was $68,000,000 driven by pricing actions across our key markets.
20m 35s
This partly offset higher raw material costs of $181,000,000 Goodyear Forward initiatives contributed $200,000,000 Inflation and other costs were $55,000,000 and other SOI was a headwind of 8,000,000 Turning to the cash flow and balance sheet on Slide 11. Our free cash flow use was relatively stable versus last year and reflects seasonal increases in working capital. Pro form a for the Dunlop transaction, our first quarter net debt declined almost $1,000,000,000 which reflects the proceeds from asset sales this year net of cash used for working capital and restructuring as part of Goodyear Forward over the last twelve months. Earlier in the quarter, we used the proceeds from the sale of OTR to repay $500,000,000 outstanding on our 9.5% notes. And the remainder was used to reduce balances on our revolving credit lines. We'll use the proceeds from the Dunlop sale to address upcoming debt maturities. Moving to the SBU results on slide 13. Americas unit volume decreased 600,000 units driven by consumer replacement. The U. S. Consumer replacement industry was relatively flat in the quarter although low end imports outperformed the industry and grew approximately 10%. In this environment, we continue to focus on the premium segment of the market driving growth ahead of U. S. TMA members in the larger rim sizes.
22m 3s
Commercial OEM replacement volume declined following industry weakness. Segment operating income was $155,000,000 or 6.2% of sales, a decrease of $24,000,000 compared to last year. On Slide 14, EMEA's first quarter unit volume decreased 2%. Europe's consumer replacement industry grew 5% reflecting high single digit growth of low end imports. Our OE volume grew despite significant contraction in the industry as new fitment wins ramped up production during the first quarter. Segment operating income was a loss of 5,000,000 decreasing $13,000,000 versus last year driven by higher raw material costs. Turning to Asia Pacific on slide 15. First quarter unit volume decreased 12% driven by replacement volume which reflects a strategic decision to exit less profitable business and channel destocking. OE volume was also lower despite overall industry growth given our own customer mix. Segment operating income was $45,000,000 and 9% to sales. Excluding the sale of the OTR business, Asia Pacific segment operating income increased slightly and S margin grew nearly 200 basis points. Before we turn to the outlook, I wanted to provide some context on the impact of Section two thirty two tariffs on the industry and on our own business based on the rates effective today.
23m 34s
In total, The U. S. Consumer tire industry includes about 300,000,000 tires in OE and replacement, And we estimate that just over 50% of that supply is sourced from non USMCA countries. We sell about 60,000,000 units in The U. S. Annually. As for our own sourcing, about point 12% of our supply for The U. S. Is sourced from non USMCA countries. Our factories in Canada and Mexico are fully compliant with USMCA. In effect, this means that Goodyear's U. S. Tariff exposure equates to about one quarter of the average for the industry. This is no doubt a significant advantage for our U. S. Business going forward. In addition to tariffs on consumer tires, we will also incur tariffs on imported raw materials and to a lesser extent commercial tires. In aggregate, we expect annualized costs of approximately $300,000,000 based on our planned sourcing and tariff rates applicable today. As we look at our outlook for 2025, we continue to expect to deliver our Goodyear forward targets of 10% SOI margin and net leverage of under 2.5 times in the fourth quarter of this year and earnings in line with the $1,300,000,000 referenced during our fourth quarter call.
24m 51s
With our favorable relative positioning, we could see upside to our plan from price mix opportunities or from higher volume. We've assumed price mix of about $150,000,000 in the third and fourth which reflects the realization of our announced pricing to date. We've also assumed our second half volume will be about flat as we prioritize our revenue per tire to offset higher costs. We are presenting a more balanced view for the near term given an expectation for sell through of pre buy in the second and third quarters and the potential for increased competitive pressure in our international businesses, particularly as tires originally destined for The U. S. May be redirected to other locations. I'll note that we continue to anticipate that the European Commission may make a consumer tire tariff determination as to unfair competition in the coming months. Turning to the second quarter outlook, we expect global unit volumes to decline approximately 2% given elevated wholesale channel inventories in The U. S. And lower volume in Asia Pacific. In addition, we expect higher unabsorbed fixed costs of 20,000,000 driven by lower production during the first quarter. Price mix is expected to be a benefit of about $135,000,000 driven by the benefit of recent pricing actions and raw material index contracts with OE and fleet customers.
26m 18s
Raw material costs will increase approximately 180,000,000 driven by natural rubber price increases and currency transaction costs. At current spot and currency rates, Q3 raw materials will be a headwind of 50,000,000 and Q4 raw materials will flip to a benefit of about $25,000,000 Goodyear Forward will drive benefits of approximately $190,000,000 reflecting continued progress across all of our work streams. Inflation, tariff and other costs are expected to be a headwind of approximately $120,000,000 reflecting higher costs given U. S. Tariff impacts on finished goods and raw materials and a global inflation rate of about 3%. In addition, this amount captures increases in transportation costs and transitory manufacturing costs associated with announced facility closures. If current tariff rates hold, these costs will be approximately $175,000,000 in Q3 and about the same level. In the fourth quarter. Foreign exchange will be a headwind of approximately 10,000,000 Other will be a headwind of $15,000,000 driven by increases in marketing and other miscellaneous costs. Finally, the non recurrence of insurance proceeds received last year it will be $63,000,000 and the sale of OTR is 23,000,000 Looking beyond Q2, we expect significant benefits in price mix and from Goodyear Forward, which will support solid earnings growth positive free cash flow generation for the year and significant margin expansion.
27m 54s
Other financial assumptions on Slide have been updated to reflect our latest estimate for working capital, which has been adjusted for the impact of tariffs on our working capital. With that, we'll open the line for your questions.
28m 9s
Thank you. At this time, we will open the floor for questions. If you'd like to remove yourself from queue, you may press 2. Again, that is 1 to ask a question. We'll go first to James Picariello with BNP Paribas.
28m 29s
Hey. Good morning, everybody.
28m 31s
And appreciate all the great color. On call this morning. So I just want to clarify I thought it was pretty crystal clear, but price mix in the third quarter and fourth quarter it's $150,000,000 year over year in the bridge for each quarter.
28m 48s
In the back That's right.
28m 49s
That's right, James.
28m 51s
Okay. And that's are you seeing other your competition also follow through on price? I imagine everybody is pricing to an extent, right, with tariffs right in front of it. But yes, can you just maybe provide some competitive color on the pricing? Because raw materials are now guided about $100,000,000 lower for the full year? [indiscernible] if you could speak to that. Thanks.
29m 22s
Yeah, sure, James. I mean, won't comment on any individual competitors. I'd say across the board, we've seen very significant price increases among the competitive set. I mean, think that's all just in relation to the tariff exposure. That we described in our prepared remarks. I mean our own exposures probably about a quarter of what others will see. When you look at the $300,000,000 that we we laid out, I'd say you could think about 80% of that flowing through into our consumer business. That equates to about $4 per tire. And I think that based on our analysis of the competitive set our competitors will be anywhere in the area of three to four times that level of exposure. And so there's a big need to go out there and offset some of this cost. It's There's just so much many imports coming into The U. S. Yeah. And given your predominant U. S. Footprint, Yes, I imagine market share opportunities will be will be [indiscernible] One clarifying question as well on tariffs Within the $120,000,000 inflation and other bucket for the second quarter, what constitutes tariffs specifically there? And then for the full year, the same question.
30m 54s
Thanks.
30m 56s
Sure. So I'll take you through all of the basket of inflation, tariffs and other costs And I'll start with the annual James. It's our annual inflation runs about $225,000,000 that's 3% on our cost base. And then the tariff we've already said $300,000,000 in an annualized cost. We also then and if you do the math on Q2 for modeling you should get to a number of close to $50,000,000 in Q3 And then, yes, that will take a step up in Q3 and Q4. Other cost inflation though also includes any excess cost over and above inflation. You'll see that that increases a bit in the second half of the year particularly as we have three restructurings occurring at the same time in the second half and that's the ramp down of two factories in Germany one in The U. S. And that temporarily creates inefficiencies in our factories, increases our costs. But that's all included in that guidance for one and seventy five in the third quarter and then in the fourth quarter as well.
32m 12s
Much appreciated. Thanks.
32m 14s
Sure.
32m 15s
Thank you. We'll move next to Itay Michele with TD Cowen.
32m 20s
Great. Thanks. Good morning, everybody, and appreciate all the details as well. Just two questions for me. First, on the tariff impact, the $3,000,000 Just curious, whether there's some potential for mitigation for that over time just given your strong U. S. Capacity opportunity and maybe other offsets that you might explore for that?
32m 43s
Yeah, so maybe I can start and then Christina can kinda reiterate a few of the things that say and good morning to you. We've got, as you mentioned, feel we're in a really favorable strong position, having the largest US footprint. From that side as well. I think as we've shared with you guys on earlier quarterly calls, we've we've already been embarking on this journey really over the last couple of years, but in 2025 and 2026, we're going to be continuing to upgrade our UMS facilities with about 10,000,000 of high value, high high rim size and the bigger profit pool size tires to more competitively compete and win in that marketplace. As we shared as well, with tremendous amount of new high rent sizes being launched in The U. S, coupled with the fact that we do have that large US footprint. We're looking for those opportunities, but we also want to be want to be really mitigate that factor, if you will, by just by watching this on a month by month basis, working with our customers and working with the distributors and the retailers on it.
33m 55s
Terrific. Thanks for that for that detail.
33m 57s
And then just second question, hoping you could just expand a bit more on some of the assumptions in your second half volume assumption. I think you mentioned kind of flat volume year over year. Maybe just talk about assumptions on share macro, maybe a little bit if you could share kind of the regional view within that outlook as well? Thank you.
34m 17s
So I'll go ahead and get started, Itay. I think what we've described in our prepared remarks is recovery in Asia Pacific turning to growth in the second half We had a really negative first quarter driven by choices we made to exit some of the lower end of the market in Asia Pac. That helped boost margins. We'll still see a drag in Asia Pacific in the second quarter. But then I think we'll begin to get some growth. In EMEA, I think that our first quarter volume was just slightly negative. Our expectation is a strengthening volume over the course of the rest of the year. Of course, in The U. S, I think we still have a really rough sell through dynamic in Q2 and Q3 in particular all around. This sell out of low end pre buy that has just filled the channels. And so I think The U. S. Will still be pretty tough. I also think Latin America volume will be tough as well. And that I think a lot of volatility is still around OE and I think we all appreciate that. But the expectation is that we will continue to grow a lot of market share just like you've seen from us here over the last couple of quarters just given our fitment wins on the SUVs, light trucks and EVs over the last couple of few years.
35m 49s
And that should flow through as well, Itay, from just to call a few of those out. Right? We we have been winning with the winners in the marketplace with like Chevy Silverado, Dodge Ram, the Ford F-150s, And just in the first quarter, we had about a point of share growth in that OE segment. And that should flow on through in the replacement cycles as well.
36m 13s
Yep, absolutely. That's all great to hear. Thanks for the detail. Thank you. Thank you.
36m 20s
Move next to Ryan Brinkman with JPMorgan.
36m 24s
Hi, great. Thanks for taking my questions. Just relative to the $300,000,000 of annualized tariff costs on finished goods COGS and raw math on Slide 17, which you referenced, in your prepared remarks. I realize those costs start now, right, versus the associated pricing gains might take more time, just given all of the inventory that's been built up in the channels during the pre buy before and after the election. Some questions around how you see that situation evolving from here, including like what is your sense for how much inventory of low cost tires might be built up in the system relative to normal? And how long do you think it will take the industry to work through those elevated inventory levels? And then whenever we do work through the oversupply what kind of pricing gains do you expect to net against those $300,000,000 of higher annualized costs?
37m 16s
Just given your costs will increase less than overall industries, are you expecting and I think it would be very reasonable expectation, are you expecting the pricing gains to be well in excess of $300,000,000 Or maybe you'll exploit share gain? Is there a reason to reassess the 10% SOI margin target longer term? What do you think? [indiscernible] take it in stock.
37m 44s
Maybe just one quick comment. Yeah.
37m 47s
Let's just give it a go. But, yeah, but, yeah, as Christina shared, you know, we we already have pricing in the market, Ryan, for a hundred and $35,000,000 of announced price increases that we've already already have out there that have been digested or are being digested into the market marketplace. And I'll let Christina pick up from some of the other details to the going forward for it. Christine, if you want [indiscernible] cover the rest of that section, I'll chime in some more here.
38m 18s
Sure. So Brian, we talked about the $300,000,000,000 and $240,000,000 of that will flow through to replacement So we've announced price increases as Mark just mentioned in The U. S. Effective May 1 and that's 4% which and using our modeling assumptions that would be worth $220,000,000 Similarly, we've announced price increases in commercial. We also have opportunities to increase our price mix with our OE customers as well. We're very confident about commercial. We talked about that as well. We've increased pricing there. Of course, we'll look at every opportunity to grow our business and increase our price mix, as you look at the guidance, we've thought about the flow through of pre buy carrying through until the third quarter. We have not yet seen a decrease in imports I think that the tariffs are effective May 3. And so we may begin to see that after May 3, but have not yet seen, for example, ocean freight rates out of Southeast Asia coming down which would be an indicator to us that some of those tires have stopped flowing into The U. S. And so it's going to take at least through the third quarter to see that play off.
39m 46s
Think you asked about the balance between whether or not tariffs are price or volume opportunity. I'd say the Goodyear branded products have done really well. Mark referenced that the growth in the capacity that we're looking to achieve in The U. S. Over the next year or two. And so our plan already includes a lot of good growth in Goodyear branded products, the supply demand dynamics there have been strong. And so that's an area where we're going to focus on driving higher revenue per tire through price and mix in the mid tier and to the extent distributors do increase the pricing of low end products, certainly makes our Cooper offering a lot more attractive. In those instances we do have some extra capacity We're going to work through the economics of price mix and volume just to maximize our earnings. Cooper doesn't directly compete with Tier three and Tier four tires. But because it has such an attractive value proposition certainly some opportunities for us there.
40m 56s
Okay, thanks. And maybe just an update on the disposition process now that you've got two of three finished. You're limited what you can say with regard to chemicals, including about overall proceeds because we can do of elimination math. But previously, I think investors have regarded chemicals to be maybe the easiest to get done over the shortest time frame just because they're seem to be so many more potential interested buyers and they tend to be deep pocketed, up and down the petrochemical space, And yet it's the one that remains. Historically, think one thing you liked about it was that it would do better when oil prices were high and not as well when it was lower oil, so kind of hedge you. And now we see oil coming down. Overall, that's good for you. But does that impact timing or proceeds at all? And And having overachieved so far on the the two that you have completed in terms of the proceeds, does that make you less sensitive to timing and more sensitive to proceeds? Just what can you say about what remains here on the disposition side?
42m 5s
Thanks, Ryan. I mentioned in the prepared remarks that our chemical process is ongoing and of course we're continuing to evaluate how best to maximize the value of that business. I'd say it was three major programs that we've been working on over the last eighteen months or so. This one was the last one in the market. I think you're right. I think the current environment whether you're looking at chem prices, whether you're thinking about tariffs, this business for us is more valuable today than say it was months ago. It's the only major synthetic rubber manufacturing site supplying tire manufacturers in The U. S. And so that makes it inherently more valuable. But as part of that strategic and operating review committee, that we held back in 2023, we did conclude that the chem business was non core. And so the work in front of us is ensuring that we deliver the right strategic value for Goodyear and for our shareholders and we'll continue to do that and update you more when we can.
43m 9s
Okay, very helpful. Thank you.
43m 13s
Thank you. Our next question will come from Edison Yu with Deutsche Bank.
43m 18s
Good morning. This is James Mahalan on for Edison. Two quick questions for me. On the SKU rationalization that impact the Asia segment volumes in the quarter, should we expect something similar to that to happen in the other geographies throughout the year? Or is that going to be predominantly in Asia story and it's going to be relatively complete after the second quarter?
43m 36s
Yes. Thanks, James. As we mentioned, on the AP side that was predominantly outside of China on that SKU rationalization. We are actually we have been going through the same activity both on the Americas side as well as in EMEA. You know, we've as we've shared with you guys in the past, we've we've been really marching forward with our our common ing, if you will, of certain SKUs. Looking as well at the retiring of some of the older SKUs as we bring the newer SKUs into the marketplace and really pleased with the results of that with the wins we're getting in terms of performance, in terms of of consumer take rates and so forth. So, yes, we absolutely are continuing to do that. As part of that. And as announced with David Ankhart being the head of our product Technology Roadmap it really is one of our key areas there is looking at the right number of SKUs and complexity within our manufacturing footprint to optimize efficiency, but also the right messaging that we take with our marketing teams out into the marketplace so that we've got the right the the right product for the right folks across the market, but not But not crowding up, in fact cleaning things up.
44m 50s
So you'll see more of that.
44m 53s
Great. Got it. That's very helpful. And then my second question So based on your math, let's just say in The U. S, about 6,000,000 tires give or take, are non USMCA. Would you look to fully offset those with the 10,000,000 units coming online from the plant optimization? Or we view that as a source of exports or maybe market share gains? Just how should we think about that extra 10,000,000 units?
45m 15s
Yeah. That that 10,000,000 units is actually going more to your first question, right? It really is about us moving into the higher rent sizes and the higher value added proposition piece to it. And then we'll utilize that as well as opportunities would come up in the marketplace of other tires coming in. But we would part of that ten million dollars is really centered primarily around our Lawton facility where we've been doing that massive modernization activity.
45m 45s
Got it. All right. Thanks, guys.
45m 49s
Thank you. Our next question will come from Emmanuel Rosne with Wolfe Research.
45m 54s
Thanks so much. Good morning. Thanks a [indiscernible] the detail around the outlook. Cristina, I was hoping you can maybe just help us put a final point on a couple of bridges, in particular maybe sequentially. Q2 SOI doesn't look all that different from Q1, but in many ways, it's a little bit backward looking. So what would the sequential bridge look like towards your double digit SOI margin by the fourth quarter? And then also curious about sort of like an updated free cash flow bridge to the extent that there are a few there were just mainly changes in terms of working capital.
46m 34s
Sure, Emmanuel. Thanks. Good morning. So when you look at the sequential earnings from the second quarter, either in the third or the fourth, I'd say two main drivers. And the growth in earnings is all going to come from higher volume and significantly better price mix relative to raw materials. I think as you look at the third and fourth quarters even in a flat volume environment which we've laid out the additional growth just coming from volume would be $200 to $300,000,000 And then the growth that we would see from price mix and raw materials will be a benefit of $100,000,000 in Q3, 175,000,000 in Q4 and that's all relative to a headwind in the second quarter of $45,000,000 So big step up in volume even in a flat environment and then significant price mix versus raws relative to the first half. And we're just second quarter taking on a whole lot of cost in raw materials also now with tariffs, but we'll begin to get the full realization of pricing in the third quarter which helps us to fully offset that.
47m 52s
Thank you. On the free cash flow side?
47m 55s
Free cash flow, what we've done is decrease the source of free cash from working capital. Our guidance at the fourth quarter call was 100,000,000 to $150,000,000 inflow. We reduced that to an inflow of $50,000,000 just given the impact of tariffs on our working capital. So as you look at our free cash flow walk, we said that SOI should be around the same level as last year. If you back out our corporate other costs and add back D and A, you should get to an EBITDA level of about 2,100,000,000.0 And then we talked about the working capital inflow restructurings about $400,000,000 taxes $200,000,000 interest expense I have a range still for maybe it's $4.60 interest income $40,000,000 positive there. CapEx of $950,000,000 and then a little bit of financing fees should still give you a positive free cash flow for 2025.
49m 3s
Got it.
49m 5s
Thank you. And then just a little bit more comments around conceptually and strategically how do you plan on taking advantage of this tariff competitive advantage? Looks like within the full year guidance, you're essentially offsetting increased costs direct costs to you you know, with pricing, but it's sort of like a one for one offset. Yet you do have a competitive advantage where your costs are going up less than most of the competition. And so [indiscernible] you also mentioned potential for upside risk from there. So would you go about once you cover your costs deciding you know, basically where to allocate the additional opportunity?
49m 53s
Yeah. We're taking a look at it really from multiple angles on it, Emmanuel. We're looking at the pricing in terms of where the products are positioned in the market marketplace. We're also looking at from our engineering side as we continue to bring these these new SKUs into the marketplace as well, make sure we've got the right pricing position and the value for the customer. So we obviously will take a look and make sure that we're optimizing that pricing and that that profitability in the marketplace. At the same time making sure that we're being very cognizant of the end consumer in the marketplace as well. So all that is coming together for the value proposition for them. We'll take a look at it on the OEM side of the house We'll take a look at it on the replacement side as well. So we're really making sure that we we've got quite a few war rims as you can imagine. We've got things mapped out in that, but we're also watching carefully around the inventory in that marketplace. Because as Christina mentioned, is feels to be a large amount of the pre buy towards that low end side of the stuff that needs to work through the system at the same time.
51m 6s
So that's why we're presenting as we are.
51m 11s
Got it. Thank you.
51m 15s
Thank you. And as a quick reminder, if you'd like Our next question will come from Wesley Brooks with HSBC.
51m 26s
Hi, guys.
51m 27s
Thanks for the color around the tariffs and your guidance. I guess a couple of questions from me. One, you talked about the risk obviously of those Asian tires being redirected to your other markets. Could you just remind us your exposure in EMEA and Asia to sort of Tier one versus the mid tier where you'd be more exposed to that in those markets. If you have any thoughts on the the size of the impact that you could have there?
52m 5s
So, good morning. This is Christina. I'll just jump in to say in Europe, we have some lower tier brands mostly are Dambita and Arsava brands, are focused more in the Eastern European countries Those would be the ones that would be most likely to compete with some of the Tier three and Tier four products going into Europe. What I'd say on the whole, if you look at our volume and I'm talking specifically about twenty twenty four volumes in consumer for Europe, I'd say about 35 or 40% of it is Goodyear and Cooper branded. All the remainder 20, let me see, 12% would be these brands that I think are more exposed to those Tier three and Tier four imports.
53m 19s
Okay, thank you.
53m 20s
I mean, yeah, it doesn't feel like the impact in these will be anywhere near offsetting the positives in The U. S. Obviously, And then my other question was more a clarification on the guidance. I think you have a guide for corporate and others being €165,000,000 in the full year. And I just wanted to understand, so you had 57,000,000 in Q1 you've got 50,000,000 in Q2, So that means only $30,000,000 run rate in Q3 and Q4. And if we look at the year over year, that's a long way down. I just wanted to understand what's going on there and what drives the quarterly variance in that. So I would say, you know, it's a great question. I would say that that variability in corporate other tends to be very typical and it has to do with a lot of the incentive compensation accruals that based on our performance in any given year will be higher the beginning of the year or at the end of the year. And this year our corporate other is more first half weighted.
54m 42s
Okay, thanks. And I mean, if I had one last quick one, just the chemical business sale, I mean, the changing environment around tariffs and market, does that change your strategy there? Is that still Does that still make sense? And do you have any updated visibility on the timing of this?
55m 3s
Sure. So, chatted about this a little bit earlier. I think, yes, certainly a bit more valuable because it is the only major synthetic rubber supplier for tire manufacturing in The US. And just given the tariff environment that adds some as we think about the overall enterprise value of that business. But I don't think it changes necessarily the conclusion at all that we arrived at back in 2023 that this business is non core. And so we're continuing. I mentioned earlier that this was the last process that we put into the market. We're talking with multiple interested parties and no other updates. We'll share more when we're able.
55m 52s
All right. Thank you very much.
55m 58s
You. There are no additional questioners at this time. I'd like to now turn the conference back to Mark Stewart for any closing remarks.
56m 4s
Okay. Thank you. And thank you all for taking the time to join us today for our first quarter earnings call. We continue to build on the momentum that we have from last year. And definitely continue to deliver on the Goodyear Forward initiatives towards that $1,600,000,000 number that we've shared. We look forward to sharing our continued progress with you guys as we as we proceed through the year. And thank you, guys, and have a great day.
56m 31s
Thank you for joining Goodyear's first quarter twenty twenty five Earnings Call. This concludes today's conference. You may now disconnect.
Key Insights
Goodyear reported Q1 2025 sales of $4.3B, down 6% YoY, with unit volume declining 5% due to lower consumer replacement volume in Asia Pacific and the Americas; gross margin declined 70 bps, but segment operating income was $195M, slightly ahead of expectations.
The Goodyear Forward program delivered $200M in benefits in Q1, the highest quarterly amount since launch, and the company remains on track to achieve its full-year targets: 10% SOI margin, net leverage under 2.5x by Q4, and earnings in line with the previously referenced $1.3B.
Asset sales (OTR business and Dunlop to SRI) have generated significant proceeds, reducing net debt by nearly $1B; Goodyear expects at least $2B in gross proceeds from asset sales as part of Goodyear Forward, with the Chemicals business still under strategic review.
The company is leveraging its strong U.S. manufacturing footprint to mitigate tariff impacts—annualized tariff costs are expected to be ~$300M, but Goodyear’s exposure is about a quarter of the industry average; announced price increases are expected to offset these costs, with price/mix benefits of $135M in Q2 and $150M in both Q3 and Q4.
Looking ahead, Goodyear expects global unit volumes to decline ~2% in Q2 due to elevated U.S. inventories and lower Asia Pacific volume, but anticipates sequential improvements in Asia Pacific and EMEA in the second half; positive free cash flow is projected for 2025 despite reduced working capital inflow guidance due to tariffs.
