Huntington Bancshares Incorporated Price & Performance (HBAN)

Copies of the slides we will be reviewing today can be found on the Investor Relations section of our website www.huntington.com. As a reminder, this call is being recorded. A replay will be available starting about one hour from the close of the call. Our presenters today are Steve Steinour, Chairman, President and CEO and Zach Wasserman, Chief Financial Officer. Brendan Lawler, Chief Credit Officer, will join us for the Q and A. Earnings documents, which include our forward looking statements disclaimer and non GAAP information, are available on the Investor Relations section of our website. With that, let me now turn it over to Steve.

Thanks, Tim. Good morning, everyone, and welcome. Thank you for joining the call today. We delivered exceptional results for the first quarter, I'll share a few highlights upfront and then Zach will take you through the numbers. Before we turn to the quarter, let me share a couple of thoughts on recent market volatility and our overall approach to managing the company through a period of economic uncertainty. I've seen quite a number of economic disruptions over my more than four decades in banking, And believe me, we have a robust playbook for managing through periods like this. Based on the current environment, we feel confident in our overall strategy for 2025 and continue to execute against it. We continue to drive progress against our objectives every day. Now with that being said, we recognize that the probability of adverse economic scenarios has increased in recent weeks, and those scenarios in turn could create additional headwinds within our industry. Regardless of the path the economy takes, we are well positioned and expect to continue outperforming our peers. Our long standing aggregate moderate to low risk appetite has proven to help us deliver strong and more predictable results through the cycle.

Even in the best of times, we are steadfast in our approach to credit and risk management, and this has resulted in consistent top quartile credit performance for net charge offs. We also maintained an allowance for loan losses that is well above the peer median. Our foundation of [indiscernible] risk management begins with disciplined client selection. We are intentional with whom we do business and in our selection of the geographies industries and exposures, we want to underwrite and hold. We ensure broad diversification and adhere to strict limits with no outsized concentrations, as you've seen in our commercial real estate portfolio. We have a well balanced and granular loan portfolio. Which we rigorously and proactively manage. All of this provides us with confidence in the foundation of the company. And it allows us to capitalize on opportunities where others sometimes cannot. Two years ago in 2023, when many banks pulled back due to liquidity, capital or credit concerns, we chose to invest. We took a different road. We demonstrated breakout performance and we invested for long term growth. We took share and accelerated new customer acquisition We hired hundreds of talented bankers, added capabilities and expertise and executed very well.

And those efforts are now helping us deliver leading deposit and loan growth. We also expanded our three focused areas of fee revenue, and we're seeing good results in those areas as well. Huntington has never been better positioned. Now on to Slide four, there are four key messages we want to leave you with today. First, we sustained the momentum from year end through the first quarter with robust loan growth and continued deposit growth.

The business is performing exceptionally well. And through the first quarter, we are ahead of our plans for the year. I'd like to thank all of my colleagues and teammates for their extraordinary efforts this quarter. And everything they do for our customers and company every day. Second, we're driving revenue and profit growth year over year consistent with the strategy we shared at Investor Day. We Profit growth is supported by our earning asset growth expanded net interest margin, growth of value added fee revenues and disciplined expense management. Third, credit performance continues to be strong. We are proactively managing all of our loan portfolios. Fourth, our strong financial foundation enables us to operate through a range of potential economic scenarios. Turning to Slide five, I'll recap our performance in the first quarter. We grew average loans by almost $9,000,000,000 year over year supported by both core businesses and new initiatives. Average deposit growth continued and increased by almost $11,000,000,000 year over year. Our deposit strategy remains focused on acquiring and deepening primary bank relationships and we grew primary bank relationships by 3% in consumer, and 4% in business banking over the previous year. Importantly, we are maintaining disciplined deposit pricing while delivering this growth.

Our investments in value added fee revenues continued to deliver with fee income increasing over 6% year over year led by payments, wealth and capital markets. We are continuing to invest in these areas. For example, in capital markets, we're excited to welcome Chris Wood to lead the continued build out of our leveraged finance program and private equity coverage. We invested in talent and launched two new verticals, Financial Institutions Group and Aerospace and Defense. In North And South Carolina, we are accelerating our branch expansion plans We're excited to bring the entire Huntington franchise to this region. These investments will drive long term value creation for shareholders and contribute to the medium term goals. Our capital levels improved as well with adjusted CET1 growing by 20 basis points from the prior quarter to 8.9%. In anticipation of reaching our operating range, the Board approved a $1,000,000,000 multi year share repurchase authorization which provides us flexibility for capital deployment. Turning to Slide six, let me take a moment to share the top level revenue and PPNR trends we've delivered. 10% year over year revenue growth and 24% year over year PPNR growth.

As I said, the business is performing very well and can continuing to build momentum. We are optimistic about Huntington's future and the opportunities that lie ahead. As a reminder, the Board and management are collectively a top 10 shareholder, and we are fully aligned and committed to our investors to drive outperformance, and additional shareholder value. With that, I'll ask Zach to provide an overview of the financial performance. Steve, good morning, everyone. Slide seven provides highlights of our first quarter results. We reported earnings per common share of $0.34 return on tangible common equity or ROTCE came in at 16.7% for the quarter. As Steve noted, pre provision net revenue PPNR expanded by 24% year over year to $783,000,000 Adjusted for notable items, PPNR rose 18% year over year. Average loan balances grew by $2,700,000,000 or 2.1% from the prior quarter. Average deposits increased by $2,200,000,000 or 1.4% versus prior quarter. Reported 10.6%, increasing approximately 40 basis points from last year. Tangible book value per share has increased by over 13% year over year. We continue to demonstrate strong credit performance, with net charge offs of 26 basis points. Allowance for credit losses ended the quarter at 1.87%.

Turning to slide eight. Consistent with our plan and prior guidance, loan balances grew for the sixth consecutive quarter driven by commercial loans, which increased $2,200,000,000 or 3.1% from the prior quarter. Year over year, loans grew 7.3% driven by continued production in the core business and contributions from the new initiatives. During the quarter, growth from new initiatives continued to accelerate from the prior quarter and represented $1,300,000,000 or approximately half of the total growth. The primary drivers of new initiative loan growth in the quarter included Financial Institutions Group, Mortgage Servicing, Funds Finance, North and South Carolina, and Texas.

Of the remaining $1,400,000,000 of loan growth from existing businesses, we delivered $697,000,000 from Corporate and Specialty Banking, dollars $439,000,000 from Regional Banking, Commercial and Industrial $09,000,000 from seasonally higher balances within Distribution Finance and $3.00 $1,000,000 from auto. Offsetting a portion of this growth was lower commercial real estate balances which declined by $261,000,000 Turning to slide nine.

Since the first quarter of twenty twenty three, we have consistently delivered deposit growth well above peer levels and are positive momentum continued into the first quarter of twenty twenty five. Average balances increased by $2,200,000,000 or 1.4% driven by continued household growth. We lowered our overall cost of deposits in the quarter by 13 basis points to 2.03%. This outperformed the expectations we shared in January and reflects our disciplined deposit pricing. On to slide 10.

During the quarter, we drove $31,000,000 or 2.2% growth in net interest income. This reflects almost 11% growth year over year and the fourth consecutive quarter of net interest income dollar growth. Net interest margin was 3.1% for the first quarter. Up seven basis points from the prior quarter. The increase in interest margin from the prior quarter included two basis points higher spread net of free funds a one basis point reduction from higher cash balances a four basis point benefit from lower drag from the hedging program and a three basis point benefit from interest recoveries and other smaller items. We were very pleased with the performance of the underlying three zero seven basis points of NIM in the quarter, which beat our earlier expectations primarily as a result of strong performance in deposit beta. Turning to slide 11. Our level of cash and securities at quarter end remained at 28% of total assets, consistent with the prior quarter and we held modestly higher cash balances in the quarter.

We have continued to reinvest cash flows into treasuries, which now represent 20% of our total securities portfolio. Up 8% from a year ago. As I have previously stated, we expect to manage the duration of the portfolio at approximately the current range. Turning to slide 12.

We continue to manage our hedging program to both protect net interest margin from a lower rate environment as well as protect capital from potential higher rates. Over the last twelve months, have reduced our asset sensitivity to a near neutral level. During the first quarter, we added to our down rate risk hedges, with approximately $4,000,000,000 in floor spreads. We continue to analyze multiple potential rate scenarios and will remain dynamic. As we continue to calibrate to the most likely rate environment. Moving to slide 13. On a GAAP basis, non interest income increased by 6 percent $27,000,000 from the prior year. We continue to see solid growth driven by payments, wealth management and capital markets. As a reminder, the first quarter is generally a seasonal low for fee revenues. And we expect fee revenues to grow over the course of the year. Moving to slide 14. Within payments, we saw 6% growth year over year in the first quarter. Driven by a 15% increase in commercial payment revenues. Treasury management fees grew 10% as we continue to penetrate and deepen within our customer base and benefited from an increasing contribution from our new merchant acquiring model. Moving to Wealth Management.

On slide 15. Fees increased by 15% on a year over year basis. AUM continued to grow, increasing 6% from the prior year with wealth advisory households up 11% year on year.

We've gathered approximately $1,400,000,000 in net flows over the last year, as we continue to execute our strategy to deepen our advisory penetration into our customer base. Moving to slide 16. Capital markets grew 20% year over year. Supported by commercial loan production related capital markets activity including notable strength in underwriting and syndications. Turning to slide 17. GAAP non interest expense decreased sequentially by $26,000,000 driven by lower personnel expense primarily because of a seasonal reduction in incentives and revenue driven compensation. Slide 18 recaps our capital position. We continue to drive common equity Tier one higher and our capital management strategy remains focused on our top priority to fund high return loan growth. While continuing to drive adjusted CET1 inclusive of AOCI into our operating range of 9% to 10%. Over time. As Steve stated in his remarks, the Board approved a $1,000,000,000 share repurchase program which provides Huntington flexibility in our expected capital distribution plan over the next several years. The timing of repurchases will be discretionary and depend on a number of factors. Including the macroeconomic and interest rate environment, as well as the pace of loan growth. We would expect any repurchases in 2025 to be modest.

Turning to slide 19. Credit quality continues to outperform. Net charge offs decreased four basis points in the quarter.

Allowance for credit losses was 1.87% lower by one basis point from the prior quarter. And up $32,000,000 sequentially. Reflecting strong loan portfolio growth and continued solid credit performance. Turning to slide 20, criticized asset ratio increased to 3.98%. The non performing asset ratio ended the quarter two basis points lower as 61 basis points. Let's turn to slide 21 for our outlook for 2025. Clearly, is more uncertainty in the economic outlook for 2025 today than there was at the beginning of the year. As Steve noted earlier, we run the business with a highly dynamic approach we continually analyze multiple potential economic scenarios and ensure that we have action plans ready not only to manage but to outperform in all of them. The business performed exceptionally well in Q1. And we have momentum going into Q2. Based on our results thus far in 2025, our full year guidance is the best estimate for how we will perform this year. On loans, we continue to expect growth within the prior range of 5% to 7%. Based on the robust performance in Q1 and the momentum that is carrying into Q2, we are well on track to achieve that objective notwithstanding the less certain economic outlook.

In a less volatile economic environment, we would likely have increased our guidance. On deposits, we expect to drive growth within the prior range of 3% to 5%. As we focus on growing primary banking relationships and new households. For net interest income, we're increasing our guidance on a dollar basis to plus 5% to 7% based on our strong first quarter performance and benefiting from a stronger NIM. As noted previously, this level would reflect record net interest income on a full year basis. Fee revenues are tracking within the 4% to 6% prior range. Expense growth is also tracking to the prior range of 3.5% to 4.5%. Driven by sustained investments in revenue producing initiatives and overall growth in the business. On credit, continue to expect net charge offs for the year to be between twenty five and thirty five basis points. I will also share some color on expectations for the second quarter. We expect sequential average loan growth between 12% Deposits are expected to grow as well. As we focus on self funding our loan growth. We expect net interest income to grow modestly into the second quarter driven by earning asset growth and a relatively stable run rate NIM.

Fee revenues are expected to grow modestly from their seasonal Q1 low. We expect expenses of approximately $1,000,000,001.07 $0 the sequential increase of approximately $20,000,000 driven approximately half from the full quarter impact of annual merit and the remainder higher expected revenue driven compensation from growing fee revenues. Lastly, we expect Q2 net charge offs within our full year range. Turning to slide 22. In closing, we remain focused on driving long term shareholder value creation. Our performance is driven by our culture and our purpose. Operate a powerful franchise, is both scaled and diversified. With multiple sustainable growth levers from a position of strength. Risk management is deeply embedded in our culture Throughout the years, we have consistently demonstrated top tier performance in stressed environments. As measured by DFAST and CCAR data. Our focus on adjusted CET1 inclusive of AOCI demonstrates the rigor our capital management approach. Our liquidity remains top tier in the industry, The organic growth we are driving continues to significantly outpace our peer group. And supports the attractive revenue and profit growth we are delivering. With that, we will conclude our prepared remarks And before we move to Q and A, let me take a moment and thank Tim Sadabras his leadership of our Investor Relations program over the past four years.

Many of you know him well.

Given his strong relationships and his counsel has been of great value to us. Tim will be taking on a new role within our finance organization as part of his development plan. Leading our corporate forecasting and profitability team. We look forward to accepting our new Head of IR in the coming weeks. Tim, thank you and over to you for questions and answers.

Thank you, Zach. Operator, we will now take questions. We ask that as a courtesy to your peers, each person ask only one question and one related follow-up and then if that person has additional questions, he or she can add themselves back into the queue. Thank you.

Thank you, Tim. At this we'll be conducting a question and answer session. The first question today are from the line of Erika Najarian with UBS. Please proceed with your question.

Hi, good morning. My first question good morning. My first question is for Zach The net interest margin clearly came in higher than expectations. Sort of just wanted to unpack what you said. Should we think about flat net interest margin trends relative to three ten or should we take out the interest recoveries And as we contemplate what you've said in the past and obviously the neutral rate positioning that you showed us, should we then apply sort of that flat net interest margin thought process for the rest of the year?

Good morning, Erica. Great hear you and thanks for the question. And so let me unpack a bit of that. So for the first quarter, SAW prepared remarks, really the big driver of the outperformance for us was deposit pricing.

And frankly, the teams executed exceptionally well and beat our own internal plan. If you just think about that topic for a second, through the fourth quarter of last year, we've achieved a cumulative deposit beta of down 24%. And our expectations as we go into this year was to see continued sort of gradual improvement on that down beta getting to the high 30s by the end of twenty twenty five, we achieved actually 37% just first quarter. So it's a significant acceleration of that performance and just really, really great results. That's really primarily what drove us above what we expected to be flat to the three zero three roughly level we were at in Q4. As I think about the kind of run rate from here to the second part of your question, we're looking at our current run rate is around three zero seven, Erica, to be to answer your question. And I see under most scenarios here, and there's clearly a wider range of scenarios that one might think about at this point, But in our most scenarios of either zero cuts or as many as three or four. That are in the curve right now, pretty consistent within a few basis points out around that three zero seven for the remainder of this year.

So pretty flat within the reasonable range of three zero seven for the next three quarters. I continue to model numerous scenarios, as you know, out of the longer term and all those really continue to indicate the opportunity for us to see rising NIMs at 2026. Aligned to what we talked about at length at our Investor Day a couple of months ago. So pretty similar kind of shape of that curve, just phase shifted up a little bit to three zero seven in the near term. [indiscernible] And my second question, if I may, is for Steve. I thought the $1,000,000,000 in buyback authorization is interesting. It's pretty clear from the performance in the quarter and your outlook that your business momentum continues to be best in class because to your point, you were able to zig when everyone else was zagging given your superior capital and risk management in twenty three, So is that just really a message of if tariff uncertainty continues to hit the banking you wanted flexibility to support your stock because you see inherent higher value. I'm just trying to say, not to put words in your mouth, but in the over decade that I've covered you, you've never been a huge fan of buybacks so just wanted to get your thought process on that.

Thank you, Erica.

Since you've covered us a bit before, we've had a consistent approach to capital allocation. First, the growth.

We're getting really good growth now, as you pointed out, best in class. Second, to the dividend. Third to other uses including buybacks.

We expect to buy back a bit this year. And we've got a multiyear opportunity. And so depending on the economic situation, we we're prepared now to do buybacks. And and expect that we will on some modest basis this year and and then continuing as we go forward.

Got it.

I'll re queue. Thank you.

Thank you.

Our next questions are from the line of John Pancari with Evercore ISI. Please proceed with your question.

With Good morning.

Good morning, John.

On the the deposit cost progress in the quarter, definitely better than expected you maybe give us a little bit of color what where you're seeing that success? Is it tied in into the new efforts on the certain product side? Or is it programs that you've been pushing through and across the pricing programs across the products? Just if you could help us get a better picture around the success on that front versus the competitive backdrop? Thanks.

Yes. Good question, John. This is Zach. I'll take it. In general, I would characterize the the outcome of that really as a function of the consistent plan we've had around down beta. So not really any sort of change in that strategy just a great execution of it and outperformance of it. Just if I remind you of the five key levers that we had highlighted as integral to our down beta plan over the last several quarters. The first was decreasing the mix of CDs within the overall funding base and secondly, shortening their duration. Thereby setting us up to be ready to see a higher beta on that product set over time. That continues to work very well. I will note, by the way, in the in the CD area, we're seeing historical CDs expire, and we're retaining the large majority of those customers at significantly lower rates, something like approximately 100 basis points lower. And that's a meaningful piece of that overall deposit cost reduction. The third part of our downgraded plan was as we acquired in volume, acquiring that in money market as opposed to time deposit. And that really, again, a high beta product allows us to continue to manage through for potential future interest rate reductions.

Fourth, we reduced our go to market pricing. I think as we've talked about a number of times in the past, we are incredibly segmented in terms of how we think about deposit pricing. The consumer and business world very much on a regional basis In the commercial world, looking at industry segments and size bands. And we look almost every day, if not certainly every week, at where is the competitive pricing. And we have purposely reduced our pricing within that overall sphere. And then lastly, fifth, selectively reducing pricing on existing segments. And we had a lot of confidence as we came into the year that we would be able to execute our overall beta plan very, very well. We challenged ourselves to some degree to go even harder than that. And to the team's credit, they really performed very, very well. The last thing I'll say is, to some degree, may remember when we set Q1 guidance, we also expected deposits to be about flat actually quarter to quarter. And not only do we outperform on deposit costs, we actually have perform on volume as well and improve that. I think it's just another testament to the deposit franchise is incredibly strong.

Great. Thank you, Zach.

Appreciate the color there. Then on loan growth I know you indicated that the new initiatives are being generated about half of the loan growth in the quarter.

And can you help us a little bit in terms of what new yields you're bringing the paper on? I mean, there's questions out there like you've got to win that share from someone. And therefore, is it pricing that's getting you there? Or is it just getting stepping up the focus in these areas where you hadn't had before since they're new businesses? And I know the margins have been competitive because of your funding dynamics. But how about the new loan yields? Is there any way to help us think about what yield these new this new paper is coming on at? Thanks. Yes. It's a great question, John. And the short answer, won't unpack more detail, but the short answer is the new yields are coming on pretty consistent with our overall production yields, not leveraging any kind of overly aggressive pricing to win there. We are seeing I think we've talked about this a lot, We have hired extraordinarily experienced bankers who have deep connectivity and relationships. And the the model we have to bring the expertise of a large bank down a local level in The Carolinas and Texas and then separately the expertise the deep, deep expertise of our industry vertical specialist banking leaders really what's causing us to win here, not pricing.

In fact, when I look at the return on capital of those deals through our capital, approval committees, they look very attractive. Just as an indication, we talked about the fact that The Carolinas achieved profitability last year during the year. It's a great, great sense of how the pricing is going. So not leveraging overall pricing there and seeing a lot of good strength. And I think when we look at the outcome of BIM, that's a testament to We're not seeing any kind of degradation in our run rate now even as we really accelerate loan throughout the last part of last year and the guidance would continue to grow right now as well. Great. Thank you, Zach, and good luck, Tim.

Best of luck in the new role.

Thanks, Sean. Our next question is from the line of Ebrahim Poonawala with Bank of America. Please proceed with your question. Good morning.

Good morning, Brooks. Just maybe one question is you had a very, very strong first quarter I think head and shoulders above most of your peers. Just talk to us in terms of how things evolved during the quarter, Steve, maybe things start off extremely strong and then March and maybe even the last couple of weeks have you seen that weakness that we all worry about in terms of the economy and clients being on the sidelines? Or just how would you describe how the quarter evolved We as we announced it at year end, we had a very strong pipeline coming into the first quarter. And we also had activity that didn't close in the fourth quarter that spilled into the first. So we had a good start. January was a very good month, but we've had each of the months have been very good. There is hasn't been a tail off per se, but some of the activity that we actually thought would fund in the first quarter has been deferred, just a modest amount of it. And that is largely in equipment finance and and tariff related issues or concerns. As you know, had a really good first quarter.

Our pipeline going into the second quarter, again, with high probability close, is almost the same level as it was in the first quarter.

So our second quarter unless something dramatically happens, should be reasonably strong as well. So we're we're not seeing a material drop off by any stretch and things that are being deferred have the potential to be stacked into the second half of this year. And we usually have a very strong fourth quarter That's helpful, Steve. And I guess the other component to growth is you picked up a lot of talent I'm just wondering is there an amount of growth that's coming from the bankers that you've hired bringing on your books of business, which should happen no matter what? Is there a component of that that we should keep in mind when we think about Huntington's loan or deposit growth?

Absolutely. Our new colleagues remember there's roughly an average twenty year tenure on them.

And they are outstanding. We just had our Board session in Charlotte to meet the entire teams in the North And South Carolina, obviously, very enthused by our directors about what's been accomplished. And encouragement to do more. So we're they're an important part of the overall results, and we expect that they'll have runway now for years. But I would also suggest the core is performing very, very well. And our colleagues in the more traditional business lines, if you will, just are doing a great job. Our commercial real estate, which has run offs quite a bit in the in last year is stabilizing. And we expect to have a stable, if not modest growth in Capri this year. So it's all coming together as planned.

We shared these expectations at the Investor Day just roughly sixty days ago, and we're executing against it. And we're not changing our plan now. We're only forced and we're going to continue to execute.

Excellent.

Thank you. Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Manan Gosalia with Morgan Stanley.

Please proceed with your question. Hi, good morning all.

Hi, Manon.

Steve, can you expand on what you're hearing on the ground from clients since April 2? What is the sentiment? What are they telling you? And what actions are they taking in this environment? There's a wide range of of issues, if you will, to talk about in this regard. Try to do it in a summary fashion. We have customers that are not reliant on imports. Or exports. If anything, they feel more bullish. Because there's less potential less competition, certainly less price competition. As a result of the interim tariff activity. We've got a lot of trade that goes on between Canada, Mexico, that is exempt because of USMCA.

And so no effect.

If you'll recall, the auto dealers did very, very well, some of their best years, a COVID environment where they had more margin on new and used as well. So there are pockets of real strength here.

There are other areas, like distribution finance, for example, where there's some import restriction being felt through tariffs.

And that utilization has dropped off a bit.

I mentioned equipment finance where some of what we finance gets imported and decisions to defer have been made. But again, a broad spectrum. There are winners not just losers. I think the headlines suggest, well, everybody is impacted. In a negative way. That is not the case. There are a number of businesses that are going to do very well And as you know, we have a very broadly diversified portfolio. So we'll have those that are be winners and some others that will be temporarily impacted.

Very helpful. And then maybe as a follow-up, you saw pretty strong loan growth this quarter. You noted that you would have increased the guide in normal circumstances. But then you also said you're not really expecting a drop off loan growth in the second quarter.

So your guide would then imply pretty meaningful slowdown in loan growth in the second half of the year relative to what you're seeing right now. So are you just being more conservative here? And if not, what would cause you to pull back on loan growth in this environment?

We have had an aggregate moderate to low risk appetite for a decade and a half.

That hasn't changed. And that's not going to change. So we'll run the company with that in mind. It's our policies, our credit processes, etcetera, And we will be consistent in generating new business. We're being a bit cautious with that second half guide.

And hopefully, overly cautious because this could be an exceptional year. We've got a very strong start.

We're confident in the second quarter. If things come together. With the individual tariff negotiations with a variety of countries. I think we'll have an opportunity to beat that guy.

Got it. Thank you and all the very best, Tim.

Thanks, Tom.

Thank you.

Our next question comes from the line of Jon Arfstrom with RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

Hey, thanks. Good morning. With Echo that on Tim, nice job.

Thanks for everything. Steve, where are you the most focused right now in terms of risk management? You have a obviously a strong record historically in risk, but what are you telling your teams to kind of double and triple check at this point?

Well, good morning, John, thanks for the question.

Like my most of my career early on was at risk and credit risk specifically.

So we are we've been very, very diligent on portfolio management now for a number of years. And we will continue to do that. But things stale information, things that might reflect some challenge with our customers, Our view is we're here to support our customers. And so if there's bad news, we want to hear it, and we want to be in a position to help them get through it. And so it's a very constructive view, and that's both consumers and business And so there's an active outreach effort, if you will, that with an extra alert around the environment. That we're emphasizing. There's no one particular portfolio of unique focus. I would say the portfolio management efforts are are and have been broad based.

And will continue. And as we get more capabilities in terms of data and use of data, of what's coming with generative AI. We'll do more and more inquiry.

And review.

Okay. Good. That's good. Thank you. And then Zach for you, just on the non interest income guide for modest growth sequentially. It looks like in your materials you're pointing to the year over year growth rates and I'm just curious how you want us to think about that modest growth. And I guess I'm particularly interested in capital markets and what kind of a bounce back you expect there? Thanks.

Yes. Great question, John. Just in the area of fees, will note that we feel really, really good about the strategy and where this is going over the moderate term. 11% year over year growth in those key fee areas of focus payments, wealth management, capital markets is in line with what we discussed at Investor Day and just the underlying trends there look exceptionally good. As you go into Q2, expecting to be higher quarter to quarter as I noted The amount of that will be a function of kind of where we land in the equity market levels to some degree that our wealth management income and cap markets. What's interesting in the cap markets space, think you discussed this like before, about two thirds of that business is commercial loan production. Related. And we are expecting to have a solid quarter of growth in commercial loan production and that should flow through the cap markets activities We noted in the in the presentation that the strength in risk management activities for example and loan syndication. So that should continue. We should see that continue to track higher. Obviously, M and A advisory is the one that is the most sensitive probably of any of our businesses to uncertainty.

And we did come into Q1 expecting to have a somewhat stronger Q1 than at ultimately came to pass. We saw some delays of deal making activity and I think that's going to be to some degree what happens there's a function of how this uncertainty in the economy resolves. If I talk to our M and A advisory team, they're still pretty bullish on the year.

I will say.

I mean the pipeline looks good. Not only good in terms of size, but in terms of quality, the company's that are in it are very high quality and should be able to transact to some degree, it's just going to come down to things closing a couple of weeks before the quarter or potentially pushing it out So I do expect to see growth [indiscernible] In that fee guide of 4% to 6%, I think the biggest puts and takes for us that will push us to the top end versus the bottom of that range is really that M and A advisory world what happens with cap markets. So that'll be what we have to watch here. Strategically the team are executing exceptionally well and look, we've got some nice trends behind us. John, just to add a bit.

We had a record number of of at Capstone, a record number of initiatives in the first quarter. So the year is set up very well. [indiscernible] will cause some delay But this could be a very strong capital markets year for us on the IB side as well.

Okay.

All right. Thanks guys. Appreciate it.

Our next questions come from the line of David Long with Raymond James. Please proceed with your question.

Good morning, everyone.

Good morning, Dave.

I understand that the credit mark metrics for you guys look real good right now, but specifically what is the uncertain back drops impact been on your quantitative CECL model and overall reserve levels? David, this is Brendan. I'll take that. First of all, we've modeled many different scenarios as we try to come up with the reserve on a quarterly basis as as we think about the economic environment is the component of it.

We would we're a Moody's shop.

And so we use a baseline scenario a somewhat positive scenario, which at this point doesn't look much different than the baseline scenario.

And then we also incorporated downside scenario.

We will wait the output that comes out of our modeling to derive the quantitative. And what we've seen over the last quarter is that as the scenarios from Moody's have softened, we have seen much more of the risk being picked up through the quantitative modeling that we've done. And so that's where we we then will step in and provide the qualitative side of it.

To get to the strong reserve coverage that we we have posted and been pretty consistent with. So So I feel really good about the position we're sitting in at this point and we look forward to as this evolves, we'll reevaluate every quarter through that same lens.

David, as you'll recall, we have typically top tier or even best of in all the DFAST prior tests. So there's a consistency in terms of stress credit risk within the portfolio. It's one of the reasons for the last fifteen years we've released quarterly data on the consumer book. And those trends are consistent now for that period of time. If anything, they've actually become a bit more conservative over time.

So we feel very good about the credit foundation within the company and optimistic about the future performance. The modeling we do would reflect that.

Got it. Thank you for that color.

Second thing that I wanted to ask about was, what does the pipeline look like for continuing to build out in the care line and Texas and the newer verticals as well as are there any new geographies or new verticals planned for the rest of the year?

Well, as we announced it at the Investor Day, we expect to add one to two new verticals every year. We had an accelerated effort early on.

But we do expect to add this year.

And I think it was last September we announced we were planning to open 55 branches over five years to Carolinas.

Looks like that will be closer to three, so that's a bit of acceleration. Three years. And And we're continuing to look to increase our capabilities in a variety of our markets. We're adding colleagues in Chicago, a substantial number of colleagues, as an example. So we're we're pressing forward, building out the franchise in multiple ways, both the pre existing and the newer aspects of it.

Got it. So it sounds like you guys continue to play offense despite any increase in uncertainty in the economic backdrop?