Kinetik Holdings Inc. Price & Performance (KNTK)

Thank you, Alex. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining our call today. Yesterday, we reported our fourth quarter and full year 2024 results and provided our 2025 financial guidance and outlook. We look forward to discussing each in more detail with you this morning. 2024 was another transformational year for Kinetic Kinetik. Marked by highly strategic M and A and organic growth. We substantially expanded our footprint across the Delaware Basin and at the same time achieve significant milestones in our capital allocation framework. Starting in the first quarter, we placed into service two months early the lateral that extended from Loving County into Lee County, our initial entry into the state of New Mexico. This was the first step in a broader vision of becoming a market leader in the Northern Delaware. In March, we put a stock overhang behind us with Apache exiting its remaining ownership stake in Kinetic Kinetik. This last trade nearly doubled our public float and created an opportunity for existing and new shareholders to participate in the Kinetic Kinetik story in a more meaningful way. In May, we announced $1,000,000,000 of highly strategic and accretive transactions that furthered our expansion into New Mexico.

Our acquisition of Durango Permian our largest transaction since the Kinetic merger in February of twenty twenty two, and the fifteen year gas gathering and processing agreement in Eddy County, which was primarily funded by the sale of our 16% non operated non core stake in GCX position Kinetic for future opportunities like never before. Importantly, upon closing these to 3.4x. Falling below our communicated leverage target. During the third quarter, we announced the sanctioning of pre FID work for King's Landing Two, to support continued development of the resource in the Northern Delaware. We also increased our equity interest in EPIC Crude, to 27.5% ownership in a series of transactions that support the Pipe's continued growth and strengthen its financial profile. To close out the year, we announced the ECCC pipeline between our Delaware North and Delaware South positions, which will allow us to flow sweet, rich gas Sal? And process higher margin sour gas across our Northern assets. We also announced the strategic bolt on acquisition of the Barilla Draw assets from Permian Resources. And with the backdrop of strength and visibility in our business in 2025 and beyond, we increased our cash dividend by 4% accelerating our return of capital to shareholders for the first time as a company and we were also placed on positive outlook.

By S and P. Now addressing our fourth quarter results, the quarter was temporarily impacted by unexpected events in November that resulted in a $15,000,000 headwind largely driven by the associated volume curtailment impacts from negative Waha gas prices in November and the restricted operating mode for several of our plants in Texas for the first half of the month.

Normalizing fourth quarter earnings for this headwind, full year adjusted EBITDA would have been above the midpoint of our revised guidance range. While Trevor will provide more context on fourth quarter results shortly, it's important to note that the management team has implemented new risk measures and processes to prevent this from happening in the future. By late December, Alpine High volumes had rebounded to levels not seen since early twenty twenty four, prior to when the curtailments began. The last two months have marked a strong rebound in operational and financial performance at the company with adjusted EBITDA averaging well over $1,050,000,000 on an annualized basis. Moving on to full year results, we reported record volume growth in earnings. Average gas process volumes of 1,640,000,000 cubic feet per day were up 13% year over year. Adjusted EBITDA of $971,000,000 represents a 6% increase year over year and an 18% increase when normalizing for November impacts.

We reported 2024 capital expenditures of $265,000,000 approximately $15,000,000 below the midpoint and $5,000,000 below the low end of our guidance range. Looking ahead to 2025 and beyond, Kinetics Pureplay footprint in the most prolific basin and in its close proximity to the largest natural gas and natural gas liquids demand hubs positions us at the epicenter of a long term supply push demand pull Dynamic.

Permian Supply U. S. Gulf Coast demand are growing at mid single digits compound annual growth rates, through the end of the decade. At the current trajectory, approximately 10,000,000,000 cubic feet per day of additional to keep up with the pace of growth. Over 5,500,000,000 cubic feet per day of capacity has been sanctioned in the Permian and is expected to be placed in service in the next several years. Implying an additional 20 to 25 unannounced Permian processing plants still needed by 02/1930. The significant growth out of the Permian will help meet the demand needs The U. S. Gulf Coast. LNG exports are expected to more than double by 02/1930 and drive approximately 75% of the nearly 18,000,000,000 cubic feet per day expected natural gas demand growth in the region. Increased industrial and power demand as well as growing exports to Mexico would make up the balance. Gulf Coast exports of ethane and LPGs are also growing at mid single digit compound annual rates As global demand for feedstock increases, predominantly supported by ethylene and PDH capacity additions in China. Given the cost inflation we have seen in power prices over the last several years, we believe our ability to manage electricity OpEx is going to become even more critical over the balance of this decade.

Which is why we are exploring a behind the meter greenfield large scale gas fired power generation facility and distribution network in Reeves County, [indiscernible] Our behind the meter solution would allow us to reduce ongoing electricity costs and be able to capitalize on the persistent and expected Waha natural gas price volatility. While the project is still in its early stages, We're in conversations with potential partners, with the intent to pursue a joint venture structure. The project could reach FID as early as this year and we look forward to sharing more as we advance this opportunity. I'm incredibly proud of what our team has accomplished. Since closing the merger in February of twenty twenty two, we have a proven track record of compound annual double digit adjusted EBITDA growth. And expect to continue this multiyear growth journey in 2025 and beyond. This earnings growth trajectory coupled with disciplined capital deployment reinforces Kinetic's position as a best in class leader in the Delaware Basin and the midstream industry. And with that, I'll now hand the call over to Trevor to discuss our financial results and 2025 guidance in more detail. Thanks, Jamie. In the fourth quarter, we reported adjusted EBITDA of $237,000,000 We generated distributable cash flow of $155,000,000 and free cash flow was $32,000,000 Looking at our segment results, our Midstream Logistics segment generated an adjusted EBITDA $150,000,000 in the quarter up 3% year over year on volume growth but down sequentially by 14%.

As Jamie mentioned earlier, November was a difficult month. Results were temporarily impacted by negative Waha prices, which where the average gas daily price at Waha was negative $1.4 per MMBtu for the first fifteen days in November due to scheduled maintenance on several intrastate gas pipelines including Permian Highway Pipeline. Negative gas prices at Waha led to the continuation of Alpine Highs volume curtailments unlike prior months in 2024, Kinetic was fully exposed to the lost gross margin from production curtailments since we did not have offsetting marketing gains as our long Gulf Coast transport capacity position became balanced. Additionally, several of our Texas processing plants were operating in ethane rejection due to maintenance work and commissioning activities. This created equity residue gas exposure at Waha further negatively impacting our gross margin. We have implemented measures and processes to prevent this operational headwind from happening in the future. Importantly, we were back on track by the December. Gas process volumes have performed well averaging over 1,800,000,000 cubic feet per day for December and January. Annualized adjusted EBITDA for October and December was approximately $1,040,000,000 further demonstrating the unique nature of the events in November. Shifting to our Pipeline Transportation segment, we generated adjusted EBITDA of $92,000,000 up nearly 9% year over year.

Growth within the segment was largely driven by a full quarter contribution from the additional 12.5% ownership of Ester Crude, volume growth at Kinetic NGL, and contributions from the PHP expansion and Delaware Link. Partially offset by no contribution from GCX following the sale earlier in the year. Total capital expenditures for the quarter were $107,000,000 For the full year, we reported adjusted EBITDA of $971,000,000 $657,000,000 of distributable cash flow and $410,000,000 of free cash flow. Total capital expenditures for the year $265,000,000 following below our revised 2024 guidance range, demonstrating capital discipline throughout the year. We exited the year with a 3.4 times leverage ratio per our credit agreement down 0.6 times year over year. [indiscernible] Moving to 2025 guidance, we estimate full year adjusted EBITDA in the range of $1,090,000,000 to $1,150,000,000 The midpoint of $1,120,000,000 implies 15% growth year over year. Specifically within Midstream Logistics segment, our key assumptions include approximately 20% growth in gas processed volumes across the system outpacing broader Permian growth. We anticipate the two twenty million cubic feet per day Curtailments across the Northern Delaware system today come online. We expect to ramp to full capacity over the balance of the year. 2025 estimates include the recently acquired Berea Draw assets and the large Eddie County project.

The Eddy County project commenced gathering services in December and will extend to processing when the Kings Landing complex is operational. Approximately 83% of our 2025 expected gross profit is sourced from fixed fee agreements. As of today, have hedged approximately 75% of our remaining commodity exposed gross profit in 2025, implying only 4% of total gross profit is unhedged and directly related to commodity prices. 2025 guidance also assumes forward market pricing as of February 20. Our Midstream Logistics adjusted EBITDA grew 30 and we anticipate accelerating that level of growth to over 20% year on year. The Pipeline Transportation segment will have a full year benefit from the incremental 12.5% equity interest in EPIC Crude which was purchased in the third quarter of twenty twenty four. Our forecast also calls for further growth at our wholly owned [indiscernible] Connecticut NGL Kinetik, and Delaware Link, These year over year growth contributions will be partially offset by contributions from GCX following the sale in June of twenty twenty four. On 2025, capital guidance we expect aggregate capital to be between $450,000,000 to $540,000,000 inclusive of up to $75,000,000 of contingent consideration to the Durango seller Morgan Stanley Energy Partners The contingent consideration payment is tied to the actual cost of the King's Landing complex and to the extent that total CapEx exceeds the original estimates, the $75,000,000 contingent consideration is reduced.

Our guidance also includes capital to construct the ECCC pipeline, continued the build out of the low and high pressure gathering system in Eddy County integrate the Berea Draw assets and pre FID work on Kings Landing two. As I mentioned earlier, we were $15,000,000 below the midpoint of our 2024 CapEx guidance. This expected spend effectively shift to the right and is now part of our 2025 capital guidance. Adjusting for this shift, as well as the increase to current market steel prices for the potential steel tariffs 2025 capital expenditures prior to the potential $75,000,000 of contingent consideration are in line with our previous communications of being towards the high end of our long term CapEx range. Strong execution across our growth objectives throughout 2025 positions Kinetic for an even more successful future. With adjusted EBITDA growth accelerating through the year as projects come online and volumes continue to ramp, we expect fourth quarter twenty twenty five annualized adjusted EBITDA to exceed $1,200,000,000 Kinetic's cumulative reinvestment ratio has been approximately 40% over the past three years driving compound double digit average annual growth and adjusted EBITDA over that same timeframe. We have demonstrated our success in investing in highly accretive capital efficient projects that drive earnings growth.

We will continue to invest in projects not only drive attractive EBITDA growth, but also support our disciplined and appropriate leverage target of 3.5 times. This balanced approach positions us well for near term investment grade rating upgrades. We remain committed to this framework as we believe it maximizes shareholder value. It also provides financial flexibility for opportunistic capital deployment to attractive inorganic opportunities and accelerated returns through annual ratable dividend increases and opportunistic share repurchases. And with that, would like to open the line for Q and A. We will now begin the question and answer session. Our first question comes from the line of Spiro Dounis with Citi. Your line is now open. Thanks, operator. Good morning, team. Want to start first with a new data point in the slides. You guys refer to this sort of 10% EBITDA CAGR over the next five years. So just curious, as you think about the infrastructure needed to build out to get you there, what's that going to take trying to get a sense of the execution risk to achieve that target.

Spiro, Jamie, good morning. All right. So I think if you go look at us slides, we said the basin is going to grow around 6%. On a supply basis. One of the things we pointed out in the prepared remarks was we continue to actually see outsized market share performance relative to our comp [indiscernible] over and above the overall supply growth that we see more broadly in the Delaware. As we think about our overall forecast right now and what we see, obviously, Kings Landing 2 is probably the most near term potential processing opportunity that we do see and We have embedded within our business, not just obviously the top line growth from a commercial standpoint, but we also have structural changes being the NGL contract roll offs, they start in 2026, they go into 2027, they go into 2028 and that's even on the commitment side, they change in 2029. That creates obviously incremental EBITDA opportunity and growth. And as we pointed out on the prepared remarks, electricity OpEx, our labor cost is sort of a 4% growth rate and has been now for the last few years, certainly post COVID.

However, electricity and compression as you guys know, particularly for those of you on the phone, have been growing at much higher rates. And so Matt and the ops team have been looking at this saying, this is something that we want to actually go and really attack. We see an opportunity to actually create controlled cost as opposed to non controllable cost And we can see an opportunity to deploy some capital and see set up multiples not not different or no different than what we have with our organic growth sort of in that five to six times setup multiple. And that would be reduction in OpEx, which again would flow to to the bottom line as far as EBITDA. That's right now our toolkit. And just taking that I think really gets you this consistent growth rate. On a multiyear basis through the end of the decade. Got it. So I don't think there's a whole lot of I don't think there's a whole lot of execution rig risk, sorry, Spiro on this. I think this is really a lot of it sits within in house.

Got it. Okay. That's good to hear.

Maybe second question, going to M and A. Last year, to your point, active between Durango, Berea Draw, both [indiscernible] from our perspective things that were not on our radar So I'm curious as you look forward to 2025, are there still opportunities to do things like that again this year with those kind of unique? Just trying to get your sense of the opportunity set. Look, I think there remain opportunities that are out there. The question is, do they hit the threshold as far as attractiveness from return [indiscernible] If there's something that we thought was particularly compelling we have a very high bar and I think we have proven that in the context of how we did the Durango transaction. And obviously, obviously most recently the Barilla Draw transaction they're highly compelling project opportunities for us.

So that creates within the boardroom an expect and a dynamic that is really puts you through your paces as far as making sure that it lives up to the billing and it lives up to the expectation.

Understood. I'll leave it there. Thanks, guys. Thank you.

Thank you for your question. Our next question comes from the line of Jeremy Tonet with [indiscernible] Your line is now open.

Hi, good morning. Good morning, Jeremy. I was going to say top of the day, but it's bottom of the morning. But let's go.

Fair enough. Just one to talk maybe a bit more about the longer term growth of 10% CAGR.

Dollars 2,000,000,000 internal goal in just as far as providing that kind of outlook now, and both organic and also really the inorganic you see out there. I guess line of sight on that side as well towards that type of internal goal and the drivers of providing the outlook? So in the context of how I would think about this, this is really we like to communicate transparently in the context of our internal objectives. And we've always been that way and we think that that's the way you deal with both from a sell side analyst community as well as the investor community at large. And we have always looked at really trying to maximize what we can within the framework and the portfolio of businesses that we have. And so so to tell you that we had a we have an internal target for $2,000,000,000 by 02/1930 is not too dissimilar to what we said sort of more than a year ago when we said $1,000,000,000 was going to be our target, our near term objective. We see the capabilities just given the skill sets and the opportunity, the opportunities that we see within our portfolio, within our overall system, to continue to grow the business at an attractive rate.

And therefore, from I look at this as being much more organic, as I've just pointed out to Spiro, It's much more within house. Yes. Yes, KL2, we're already starting on the pre feed and that's an active ongoing series of conversations with many customers. What we really see as being the catalyst for so much activity in the North will be Kings Landing coming online. And there is no higher more important objective for the ops team and the engineering construction team than to make sure that happens. At the end of 2Q this year. That is going to give massive relief to our customers More importantly, that may be a step change as far as their willingness to think about development activity and what that actually looks like. So that we think we are positioned well to capitalize on. I've already mentioned obviously OpEx, Compression is another area that we continue to see. Right now, on the basis of what we see with for example, with Apache and what we inherited with Alpine High, we we still have almost 18 units that we could possibly move. Within our system. It's about 150,000,000 cubic feet a day of horsepower and that's a direct immediate OpEx benefit with modest with very, very modest capital, right, to basically redeploy and move those units.

So there we look at it every element and aspect of our business, we look at whether it's on commercial side, whether it's on the hedging side, the marketing side, and whether it's on the operations, engineering construction side, everyone has has a role to play In this in growing this business. So as I said, when we think about our internal objectives, we're not putting out there sort of unexpected or things that are completely outside of our control that we don't we can't necessarily influence. I think we feel really good about executing and the opportunity sets that present itself immediately within us and just following that path to get to these sorts of growth levels for our internal business. Got it. That's very helpful there.

And just pivoting a bit, I wanted to dial into producer customer activity expectations for this year. Particularly as it relates to Waha and potential for shopping ahead of the next wave of pipes or just in general, how are conversations with producers going at this point in time?

Look, I would say '24 was an eye opener for most produced in the context of the extent to which Waha was negative, And that obviously, we live the good and the bad.

Right, as it results to that.

Ongoing opportunities set right now is still since all of our customers are yes, all of our customers because as I said, we have Apache and PDP decline. All of our customers are oil drill activity. So they continue to see tremendous opportunity. New Mexico some of our largest customers continue to put most of their drilling capital. But I think there is some really, really interesting opportunities that will continue out of that. And if Waha ever gets its acting gear and we see positive catalysts gas prices, then, hey, there might be additional activity and some of the areas would have higher GOR, I suppose, in the context is just more richer just gas but much less crude. So I think overall level of activity remains pretty robust, Jeremy, pretty robust. As it relates across both Northern Delaware and Southern Delaware.

And Jeremy, this is Chris. Remember, part of our differentiator too is how we can offer Gulf Coast pricing and a large number of our customers have that exposure. And that proved to be Valuable?

Valuable for them in 2024 and going into 2025. So that will further reinforce their ability to drill and bring on production. Got it. That's helpful. I'll leave it there. Thanks. Thanks, Jeremy.

Thank you for your questions. Our next question comes from the line of Neil Mitra with Bank of America. Your line is now open.

Hi, good morning. I wanted to start off with a macro question. It seems like the Permian gas pipes, a lot of them have enhanced capacity through compression with Whistler PHPGCX. And there's a lot of maintenance around those unplanned and planned. And it seems like that was an issue this quarter. Are you able to manage around that risk and do you see increased compression as a source of volatility going forward.

Yes, it's a really good question.

It is a very good question. So I would say the following, Neil. And the context of my view on the on all the Gulf Coast pipes. There is going to be regular seasonal maintenance as there is honestly for just about [indiscernible] equipment and machinery that we had Utilities do seasonal maintenance. I mean seasonal maintenance is just part and parcel of when you have something that runs 20 fourseven, three sixty five days a year. That is typically going to mean the shoulder periods. April, May, October, November. They're obviously where you see even in the forwards, the weakest pricing. You may have obviously more impacts because now you've got [indiscernible] assets with more compression and so there might be longer periods where you have some modest level of capacity cuts. So I do think that that obviously does play in. Obviously, trying to sequence it so that doesn't all literally pull on top of each other and create obviously some sort of some sort of bigger issue is obviously important. But I look at this and say, look, our lesson learned from this and look, I think I have a viewpoint, which is you just don't get mad, you get better.

That's what you do. As you take November and you say, okay, what have we learned? So what we learned was we needed to be have incremental links for Gulf Coast capacity. So we have and we are. And that will obviously allow we understand now that that is an important offset as it relates to just [indiscernible] What it means as we continue to see more and more pipelines, obviously, the the fact is the rate of growth that we're seeing is unprecedented. And that's really the issue. When you see sort of this growth rate of eight Bcf over the next five years. Said another way, that is 1.5 bs a year. Right? I mean, that's massive amount of growth. That is a pipeline a year and it's hard to get pipelines built. We've seen that.

They happen in clusters. And there's a frenetic amount of of activity, lots being talked about, but things happen.

And then there's Catalyst.

So obviously, Catalyst, I think last year was just how Waha performed. And finally, you saw obviously GCX get done, We saw obviously, we saw Blackcomb, and we saw Hugh Brinson. So finally, we saw, okay, we saw some activity. The pressure will build up again Absolutely, just given what we see, and you'll continue to have this problem. Part and parcel of one of the ideas, but with the ops guys on PowGen. Is that's just in bison. But that's 50,000,000 to 60,000,000 cubic feet a day, whatever it is in the of that we could build a power gen plant and capitalize on some of this weakness. It's another way for us to create economic value for the enterprise and capture it within the overall company itself. So I do think it's a really good question and look it's going to be something that I think all of us are going to have to watch and we'll probably watch very closely.

Got it. Thank you.

The second question My feeling was that the New Mexico, Delaware was kind of your near term growth engine and long term growth engine was the existing Southern Delaware system. It seems like some of your customers like Permian Resources and allowing you to see some outsized growth In the near term, in the Southern Delaware, Can you talk about what you see in terms of how that contributes to the the 10% growth? And then also if there's any additional services you can provide for for that subset of customers like you are in New Mexico with the trading and other services?

Sure. So let me deal with that last aspect first and then we'll just talk about sort of the picture on the Southern Delaware.

So as you know, interestingly enough, in the Southern Delaware is the preponderance of all the customers that we provide potentially multi stream service. So we provide crude gathering, which we do with Barilla Draw, We do it with Catera. We do it with a number of others. We have water gathering and disposal and we have obviously natural gas gathering and processing. To this point, since it has been primarily a more of a traditional suite system, the gas obviously gas quality is much lower from a PPM standpoint with respect to H2S and obviously CO2 has been relatively negligible as likewise inert. So we do provide multiple services, multi stream capabilities, wherever we can and we look for those opportunities particularly in and around our system in the Southern on the Southern Delaware side. Yes, you're right. Barilla Draw is a very, I would say, is a very helpful and is a very strong infusion of growth for the Southern Delaware system. Outside of that growth, I think honestly has been more candidly as we look at it So does that mean that it's more of an inventory play at this point because the directed capital dollars are in New Mexico?

That's probably a pretty good point of view. I think they will come back up producers will come back and obviously focus on these areas, but New Mexico obviously has I think for various reasons, which we've explained, I think has obviously a lot more appeal right now in the context what we're seeing So Barilla Drawer is more, I would say, probably an exception than the norm, but it's a fantastic [indiscernible] or saw the transcript for the the Permian Resources call yesterday, they're going, going, they're really going to go after it. On it from a development activity standpoint. The good news for us is it fits within our EBITDA and our growth is that we pick up partial processing after March this year and then we pick it all up a couple of years out.

When another contract expires. And that will be a big that will be a big contributor. That will be obviously very attractive context of that step up when we both gather and process that gas.

So that really that obviously does help the overall 10% the double digit growth rate and how we think about it longer term.

Neil, it's Trevor. One other thing that I'd add is that have seen a ton of consolidation and deconsolidation for specific asset packages across not only our footprint, but just the broader Delaware Basin. One of the things that we're really excited about On the heels of [indiscernible] the announcement and the completion of ECCC the first quarter of next year, I think, how we internally have always wanted to get to and how folks from the outside looking in will look at us, which is this business is a Delaware Basin proxy.

And so despite assets changing hands, we have such length and footprint across the entire Delaware Basin that there's opportunities that are popping up in the South, on the Eastern Side Where Pegasus Lateral is in Lee County, the Western side where ECCC is, and then all across the North with Durango and on the Southern side of Durango, with the Kings Landing footprint. So hard to, I'd say, say on a longer term basis, exactly where those opportunities are going to transpire given all the consolidation in M And A On The Upstream Side. But We Have Again Such A A Robust Footprint Now That We Are Quite Confident That There Will Be Opportunities Within Our Capture Area The Long Term Given Our Belief In The Delaware Basin.

And Neil, finally, I would just say the commercial [indiscernible] their brainchild will be CCC really allows us to capitalize on the growth that's in the North And if we're not seeing the growth in the South, we have brand new processing facilities down there that we can fully utilize and be able to bring that gas south and process it is a real optimization of our overall footprint. And that's tremendously attractive.

Okay.

Perfect. I really appreciate all the thorough answers.

Thank you for your questions. Our next question comes from the line of Michael Blum with Wells Fargo. Your line is now open. [indiscernible] Wanted to talk about I wanted to talk about the relationship between your EBITDA or earnings growth and dividend growth or capital return. So obviously here in 2025, targeting 15% EBITDA growth. 3% to 5% dividend growth. Can you just speak to the delta there? Are you trying to retain more cash, reduce leverage further?

And then then assuming you can hit that 10% EBITDA long term target through the end of the decade, how do we think about that relationship going forward between growing earnings versus dividends or just capital return more broadly?

Thanks, Michael. It's Trevor.

What I would say is that we Following up on Neil's earlier question, we see a lot of opportunity in the Delaware Basin to grow our business. And retaining financial flexibility to execute primarily on organic opportunities into the extent that there are inorganic opportunities, maintaining again, not just a strong balance sheet, but also ample free cash flow following after dividends in order to absorb incremental growth capital and execute on such opportunities. So what I would say is that until that dynamic changes, which we do not see anytime soon, growing our dividend at a slower rate of pace we believe is prudent just to give us that financial flexibility.

Okay, got it.

Thanks. And then just one more question on that long term 10% EBITDA CAGR. Effectively assume you stay within that long term CapEx range that you laid out before or does it contemplate higher No, it's we stay within the footprint. [indiscernible] We did. As I said, in the context of there's so much of this growth which is already whether it's Kings Landing two, II, we've already talked about this a lot with you and obviously most of our investors and most of your other analyst brethren.

That we can really live within that that overall range and we continue to see the growth that we've got.

Got it. Thank you.

Thank you.

Thank you for your question. Our next question comes from the line of Keith Stanley with Wolfe Research. Your line is now open.

Hi, good morning. On the I wanted to ask on the power plant.

Potential project. I know it's early. But can you just confirm how much capacity you would want to own And then when you say it's comparable returns mid single digit EBITDA, build multiples, Is that tied to just forward market power prices as they sit today? Does that begin any gas optimization with Waha? Just any inputs on that? Okay. So Keith, it's Jamie. Two things. As far as How much capacity? So today, post 100, 110.

Megawatts. Round the clock twenty four hours. 20 fourseven, that's Southern Delaware. We have been talking about this for some time. I give Matt and the engineering guys a lot of credit. They've really looked at this We've taken talk to a few customers They would be our joint venture partners.

And they themselves have lots of load. So all of us look at this in really self consumption, right? We're building this And we're going to directly connect to our load points and we will then control our own electricity with grid as backup. Right? So that's the opportunity set. It's not about selling into power, it's not selling into the grid, it's not selling we're not going to sell data centers or hyperscaler. Our optimization of our existing operating expense. As far as returns are concerned, this is against what we have and what we see today. So there's no optimization in the context of lower wire prices. We're just We're looking at this today versus what our fully loaded cost is and what it is in ERCOT today. So I think what there are optimization depending upon the actual expected price for Waha is a further enhancement or refinement at some later stage. But I think what we see on an existing basis, given expected potential construction costs versus OpEx reduction immediate, this is what it would be. Thanks. That's helpful. Second question, just really more of a follow-up. 20% processing volume growth assumption for this year Is there any way to split that between kind of legacy Kinetic South, Durango Barilla Kinetik, And then the $1,200,000,000 EBITDA exit rate for the year is a pretty big ramp.

I assume a lot of that's King's Landing starting up, but any color on on is it front half loaded or back half loaded in terms of gathering growth for the year as you see it?

I would say, yes, we will try to give you the North South breakdown. On the South, a lot of it is the return of Apache curtailed volumes. I mean, just put in context, it's like 140,000,000 cubic feet a day. It's a lot.

That would be sort of the adjustment if I look at it sort of the overall buying bridge. You obviously on a gathered basis You've got a lot on Rilla Draw. So those two things I would say Looking at Kendrick and Treba, that's pretty much your South bucket, right? Everything else is sort of some pluses and minuses, but nothing really material. Then it's all Kings Landing. Kings Landing, when it comes on, you've got obviously newborn spur. You've got a lot of ducks you have a lot of catered volume and literally that just brings it on and our expectation is and this is how we sort of thought about our overall guide which was Kings Landing is a big project to us and we don't control exactly when it comes up. So we want it to be just like we have historically for I would say every year, we do this in February when we give our initial guidance.

We want to be conservative because there's a lot that we can see, but we just want to know before we start [indiscernible] And I think every year we've actually issued original guidance and then revised it. I think in the context of Kings Landing, that's one of the unknowns, right, exactly how that ramp plays up. I think we are in Year end, I think, so fourth quarter is when it's when we should see King's Landing's of full. So obviously that will have a an impact there with the additional 200 plus a day that we get.

Yes. One other thing that I would just add is that remember, Burria Draw starts out as gathered service for the first quarter.

And then there is an existing processing agreement whereby we're not getting all of that gas. So the over 20% of processed gas growth that's not necessarily gathered. And so the growth year on year with respect together is actually stronger than what you're seeing here just because of that dynamic.

That processing contract rolls later this decade and that is a margin expansion which further adds to to how achievable is that longer term growth rate for our business.

Thanks. Thanks, Keith. Our next question comes from the line of John McKay with Goldman Sachs.

Your line is now open.

Hey, good morning. Thanks for the time. I just wanted to quickly touch on the sour gas opportunity that you guys have kind of pointed it to a couple of times on the call today. But just if you can give us an update on kind of where the broader kind of competitive landscape sits right now, kind of incremental commercial opportunities where you see room to add more treating, etcetera.

John, it's Jamie. So as far as the Sal gas treating, There remains significant number of opportunities in Northern Delaware. So we continue to see that being a real differentiator for us and probably a couple of our peers and be able to capitalize on that with existing capacity. And obviously with Kings Landing and then Kings Landing two with sour gas processing capacity. So I think we're very excited by the opportunity. It really hasn't changed as we continue to tell everybody. The level of or the number of customers and the amount of acreage that we see that could be developed. Obviously, so much of it sits in and around our existing system that we have on Kings Landing and we are we're trying to harvest that with commercial contracts.

That's great. Thanks. And maybe just one of the margin improvement story you talked about was the compression side. Touched on it briefly, but maybe just give us an update on on is it third party pricing has gotten higher? Is it just harder to track down new units? Or how much of it is kind of more I guess, self help on your side just to your point on having the 18 units potentially available?

Well, as you know, we inherited a lot of units from Alpine High and we've been we have redeployed them across our entire system. And so our compression capability, whether it's first call or from an ongoing Compression mechanics, we've really increased significantly from the original base business that was that was BCP Raptor. Which was the old ECMV and CAPROC businesses.

So it is third party. We are seeing both new units as well as oldie as well as existing leases when they expire or they reset provisions, increased provisions, obviously, increased greater than what we're seeing inflation at this point Kinetik, And so it is an interesting dynamic. Right? Obviously, I think we've raised probably [indiscernible] talked about whether it's Archrock, USA Compression, Kodiak, etcetera. And I think we all recognize that there is pressure on those prevailing lease rates. What it drives someone like us to do is really evaluate, okay, the lead times to get new compression, Okay. So let's think about it prospectively. Let's put that into our thinking on our capital budget. Because it makes a direct impact. We have the technology, we have capability let's go secure it. And let's deploy it within our business. A lot of it continues to be driven by you doing low pressure How much of your business is low pressure than high pressure? Because obviously the more low pressure you do, the more compression we need. If it's high pressure, don't need it as much. So I do think it's in interesting sort of complexion. It's an interesting chessboard that we have to navigate.

But it is certainly new units, cost of new units, not a surprise. Seeing as terms come up for renewal. [indiscernible] Our next question comes from the line of Theresa Chen with Barclays. Your line is now open. Good morning. Your discussion related to the details on the infusion of growth that BRILLA drop brings, Would you mind clarifying the comments around taking up additional processing and with more to come later in the decade. Just quantitatively, what is the path of economic contribution on this acquisition?

Theresa, it's Trevor. So we that comment so what we are initially providing is gas gathering are existing processing agreements we don't necessarily process that gas today. Later this year, we will process a portion of that gas and then later in the decade, the remaining existing processing agreement with a third party will expire and then we will process 100% of that gas. Haven't commented on the economic contribution on that but the way to think about it is it's just a margin expansion on existing Understood. And then on the PowerGen opportunity, if it reaches FID as early as this year, how quickly can something like this come online? And would you view this as a one and done? Or do you want to build a series of these assets as a new component of your commercial offerings?

Well, I think this is Theresa, it's Jamie. So it's I would say in the South, it takes pretty much all of our load. Right? So it's a one and done as we think about the South. The interesting thing will be Let's do this first. Let's see how it is. If we FID this year end of twenty twenty seven, I think is when you start to think about when it's in service. If this experiment We think if this works, we would very much start to analyze looking to do it in New Mexico.

And ironically, some of the joint venture partner one or more of the joint venture partners that we're talking to would also like us to go into New Mexico because they also would like to do something. So we do see an interesting opportunity. We're not trying to do these. These aren't peakas, right? This is going to be several hundred megawatt basically gas fired pallet jack. So this is not 10 megawatt peak that looks at a peak shaving when you get sort of super high pricing in certain points in time in the year.

This is more about as I said during my remarks and earlier, this is about OpEx optimization. This is about reducing permanently your overall OpEx to contribute obviously incremental EBITDA growth to the and cash flow growth to the enterprise?

Thank you. [indiscernible] Our next question comes from the line of Gabe Maureen with Mizuho.

Your line is now open.

Morning, Jamie. Just had a larger picture question on all the announcements we've seen on downstream NGL capacity expansions this past quarter, whether frac, pipes or export. Just wondering how that plays into your re contracting strategy, whether you see upside, I guess, from which you had seen potentially before? And also, I'm just curious your approach to locking in some of these recontractings that you've got, whether you can do that ahead of time you're going to wait? Obviously, I don't want to give you give you to give too much away on a commercial strategy, but just curious how that all plays into it?

Yes, sure. I think as far as we said that we have various contracts and commitments that roll off of the passengers starting next year literally for the following four years right to the end of the decade. There are opportunities. We have an existing contracting relationship with Targa, which we very much enjoy. We have a very very close and enjoyable relationship with enterprise. So we do see the opportunities. We do see rates We do see them going lower and that's obviously creates incremental opportunities for us. I think we are analyzing What and when we do we see no pressure to rush to do anything. We continue to analyze this and we'll continue to to update everybody. Look, as facts and circumstances change going forward, Thanks, Jamie. And then if I could just follow-up two quick ones. Are you expecting any EPIC crude distributions this year? And then don't know if you can ballpark steel tariff impacts on your potential CapEx, but just wondering you're thinking about that and whether there's anything to potentially lock in to avoid those?

Yes. So on Epic Crude, the short answer is yes. Because I think the overall business has reached a steady state as far as credit profile, stability, it's in a really good place. Obviously, the contractual support from Diamondback critically important. And I think it's very much in a good place right now. So partners are expecting distributions this year, which is obviously a good I suppose as it relates to sorry, I just forgot the last aspect. What was the last aspect to your question? How can I forget tariffs?

Tariffs is like literally the frenetic activity of every day. Within our business, who, when, what, how. It's about $15,000,000 to $20,000,000 I think is the impact Matt, if I'm not mistaken. That's what we have. Yes, we got a lot of pipe It was mainly steel for us predominantly because we've got the ECC Olympus North, low pressure into in and around Carlsbad, it's a lot of steel. So we had secured a lot of it, no King's Landing, because that all had been taken care of. But it certainly was all of the additional development we see in Carlsbad, which is pretty strong and obviously ECC, which we announced at the end of last year.

Thanks, Jamie. Sorry to be the one that asked the tariff question.

No, it's quite alright. It's reality, right? Got to live it. Thank you for your questions, Gabe.

There are no additional questions waiting at this time. I would now like to pass the conference back to Jamie for any closing remarks.

Thank you, everyone, for your time this morning. I know we ran a little longer than normal. We look forward to seeing number of you next week. I think we're at a couple of conferences up in New York.

So and in the meantime, if any questions, please feel free to reach out.

Thanks very much. Bye bye.