Lamar Advertising Company Price & Performance (LAMR)

Sean Reilly. Please go ahead, sir. Thank you, Beau. Good morning, and welcome to Lamar's Q4 twenty twenty four earnings call.

We ended 2024 on a positive note.

Revenue growth accelerated from Q3 aided by political, with local and programmatic again leading the way. For the quarter, revenue was up 4.1% on an acquisition adjusted basis, compared to Q4 of twenty twenty three, increases across all our lines of business, outdoor logos, transit and airport EBITDRA grew 3.9% on a the same acquisition adjusted basis As a result, we delivered full year AFFO of $7.99 per share, dollars 0.04 above the top end of the revised guidance range that we provided at the end of Q3 and $0.17 above the top end of our original guidance, for 2024. For the full year AFFO per share increased 7% bolstered by acquisition adjusted revenue growth of 4.2% EBITDA growth of 4.5%, and a slight improvement in our EBITDA margin to 46.8%. All of which allowed us to increase our distribution by 13%. As we think about 2025, we anticipate another year of growth Local sales remain solid and it feels like national is firming up after a couple of years. As you saw in the release, we are guiding to full year AFF per share in the range of $8.13 to $8.28 Embedded within that guidance is an expectation for acquisitions adjusted revenue growth in the range of 3% with a similar percentage increase in operating expenses.

Year over year revenue growth will be more modest in the first quarter.

Recall that we had an extra sales day last year due to the leap year. But our pacing show that growth is picking up as the year unfolds and last night we announced another significant increase in our dividend for 2025 to a run rate of $6.2 per share. Back to Q4, In addition to political, categories of strength included service, buildings and constructions, and government and nonprofits, while healthcare and insurance were weaker. For the billboard business, both local and nationalprogrammatic grew 3.5% for the quarter.

Digital, of course, led the way in Q4, increasing nearly 8% versus the year earlier quarter, including a 3.7% same store growth. With particular strength in programmatic, which was up nearly $3,000,000 or 30%. That same store growth the best of any quarter in 2024 gives us confidence that it is the right decision to reaccelerate our rollout of new units new digital units in 2025 with a goal of deploying at least three fifty new displays organically. We will, of course, also add digital displays through M and A, as well in 2025. As you know, the market was relatively quiet in 2024 Lamar we tempered our own activity as we focused on further improving our already strong balance sheet. We ultimately spent about $45,000,000 in acquisitions in 2024. We anticipate a more active year in 2025, If I had to call it now, I would say count on about 150,000,000 in deals that would could be even more than that. We're more accustomed to being a buyer not a seller in the M and A world. But as noted in the release earlier this year, we divested our 20% interest in Vistar Media, the leading programmatic platform for out of home.

We sold to T Mobile as part of their acquisition of all of this star. It was a resoundingly successful investment for Lamar. We paid $30,000,000 in 2021 for our 20% stake we received $115,000,000 from T Mobile earlier this month with $15,000,000 more due once escrows are released. I want to commend Ross Riley who led this the Vistar investment for us. Jay will have more to say about our plans for the Vistar proceeds, but I want to note that the decision by T Mobile one of the best known consumer brands and most sophisticated marketers around, To acquire Vistar is a testament to their faith in Atahome as a powerful communications medium with a promising future. We are confident that they can utilize their data and market insights to take Vistar and programmatic out of home to new heights. Finally, before I turn it over to Jay, I want to thank thank everyone across Lamarland for their hard work and dedication in 2024. I can't say it enough We have the best team in out of home, wait to see what more we will be able to accomplish together in 2025. [indiscernible] Thanks, Sean. I couldn't agree with you more.

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us. We had a solid fourth quarter and are pleased with our results. Which exceeded internal expectations across revenue, adjusted EBITDA and AFFO. We in AFFO continued in the fourth quarter Diluted AFFO per share increased 5.2% to $2.21 versus $2.1 in the fourth quarter of twenty twenty three.

In addition, the company ended the year above the high end of our revised AFFO outlook, which we increased following both the 48.1% continues to exceed pre COVID levels.

Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $278,500,000 compared to $268,200,000 in 2023, which was an increase of 3.9%. Free cash flow also improved in the quarter growing 8.5% over Q4 twenty twenty three. In the quarter, depreciation and amortization expense in $164,900,000 growing over 230%. This was primarily due to a revision in the cost estimate included in calculation of the company's asset retirement obligations.

ARO, ARO accounts for Lamar's obligation to dismantle and remove over 71,000 billboard structures on leased land and restore the sites to original condition. We test our ARO estimate annually and the cost to retire these assets has risen substantially, which led to an increase in our depreciation and amortization expense during the quarter.

However, the expense is a non cash item and does not impact the company's adjusted EBITDA or AFFO. For the full year, acquisition adjusted revenue increased 4.2% to to $2,210,000,000 compared to $2,110,000,000 the prior year. Operating expenses grew approximately 4% against a difficult 2023 comparison in which acquisition adjusted expenses increased only 1%. [indiscernible] Adjusted EBITDA was $1,030,000,000 which represents an increase of 45% on an acquisition adjusted basis. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 46.8% for the full year expanding 10 basis points versus a year ago. We were pleased to see margins hold steady given upward pressure on the expense side. The company ended 2024 with full year diluted AFFO of $7.99 per share which was above the top end of our advised guidance. For the twelve months ended December 31, diluted AFFO per share increased 7% compared to full year 2023.

The acceleration in AFFO growth was driven by a strong top line and we also benefited from the pause in short term interest rate hikes. Face significant interest rate headwinds in both 2022 and 2023 that subsided last year. With cash interest remaining relatively flat 2024. Local and regional sales accounted for approximately 78% of billboard revenue in Q4, similar to the same period in 2023, and growing for the fifteenth consecutive quarter. In fact, the first quarter of twenty twenty one was the last quarter in which we saw a year over year decline in local and regional sales. A COVID impacted quarter in comparison to the pre COVID period a year prior in twenty twenty.

This consistent performance exhibits the resilience of our core local advertising business and differentiates the company Moving to capital expenditures. Including $16,300,000 of maintenance CapEx and for the full year CapEx totaled $125,300,000 with maintenance CapEx comprising $52,000,000 As for our balance sheet, we have a well lettered debt maturity schedule with no maturities until the term loan B in 2027. Last year, we used a substantial amount of our cash flow after distribution repay outstandings under the term loan A and reduced overall debt by $136,000,000 We currently have approximately $3,000,000,000 in total consolidated debt and our weighted average interest rate is 4.6%. With a weighted average debt maturity of three point eight years. [indiscernible] As defined under our credit facility, we ended the quarter with total leverage of 2.83 times net debt to EBITDA which remains amongst the lowest level ever for the company. Our secured debt leverage was 0.82 times at quarter end and we're comfortably in compliance with both our total debt and current secured debt maintenance debts. Against covenants of seven times and 4.5 times respectively. As a result of the focus on our balance sheet, the company is well positioned to resume more normal acquisition activity with an investment capacity well over $1,000,000,000 In addition, we have the ability to deploy this capital while remaining at or below the high end of our total leverage range of 3.5 to four times net debt to EBITDA.

Our liquidity and access to capital remains strong. As the company continues to enjoy access to both the debt and equity capital markets. As of December 31, we had just over $500,000,000 in total liquidity comprised of $49,500,000 of cash on hand and $457,000,000 available under our revolver. As Sean mentioned, subsequent to quarter end, T Mobile acquired 100% of Vistar Media, a company in which we had a 20% investment Lamar received $115,000,000 as consideration for the sale and we may receive an additional $15,000,000 from escrow following certain post closing conditions. Proceeds from the sale were used to repay outstandings under our revolving credit facility and the current balance on our revolver is $119,000,000 The $130,000,000 in total consideration is return of over four times our initial investment the company will recognize a taxable gain of approximately $100,000,000 on the transaction. Vistar investment was held within our taxable REIT subsidiary, and the gain is subject to federal and state income taxes prior to distribution to the REIT. As part of distributing funds to the REIT, we plan to use a portion of the cash after taxes to repay intercompany loans from the REIT to the TRS. We also intend to utilize additional tax deductions at the which will further reduce our taxable income.

As a result, we currently estimate our distribution requirement associated with the Vistar sale to be in the $15,000,000 to $20,000,000 range and will likely be distributed in the form of a special dividend at year end. In this morning's press release, we provided full year AFFO guidance of $8.13 to $8.28 per share. Reflecting AFFO growth of 1.8% to 3.6% over 2024. The midpoint of guidance, we expect top line growth of about 3% and operating expenses should grow slower in 2024. As we did last year, we are assuming SOFA remains flat for purposes of cash interest and have included $152,000,000 in our guidance. Our maintenance CapEx budget for the year is anticipated to be $60,000,000 in 2025. Which is $8,000,000 more than last year. And finally, cash taxes are projected to come in at approximately $10,000,000 Yesterday, our Board of Directors approved a first quarter dividend of $1.55 per share and we expect to distribute a regular dividend of at least $6.2 per share in 2025. This excludes any required distribution resulting from the Vistar sale. On an annualized basis, the Q1 dividend represents a yield of 4.7% at yesterday's closing stock price.

As a reminder, the company's dividend is based on taxable income Subject to Board approval, our dividend policy remains to distribute 100% of our taxable income. Again, we are pleased with our fourth quarter performance the strong finish to 2024.

And we look forward to executing on our strategy in 2025 I'll now turn the call back over to Sean.

Thanks, Jay.

I'll go through some of the familiar stats I'll start with relative regional strength and weakness. Q4 was paced by our Northeast region, which came in That's up. 6.7% on the revenue side. Relative weakness, Gulf Coast came in at up 0.3%. Interestingly, that is the complete inverse of what happened last year when the Gulf Coast paced the company and the Northeast was struggling a tad.

On to political, Q4, political represented $14,500,000 in our book for the For Q4, that compares to $2,900,000 in Q4 of twenty twenty three. For the full year, political came in at $29,200,000 compared to twenty twenty three's $7,500,000 There's some unknowns as we think about replacing the impact of political As I've said many times, political tends to break late. So we don't know how much of that 14.5% crowded out customers that otherwise would have bought the space. We also don't know how strong political is going to be this year. So that's a stay tuned in terms of of our guidance. On to number of digital units, we concluded the year [indiscernible] 4,994 digital units in the air, I asked compared to last year's year end number, which was $4,759 or an increase of two thirty five As I mentioned, we anticipate significantly ramping our digital deployment this year and our stretch goal is something in the neighborhood of three seventy five. Let's say at least three fifty. Same store revenue was a good story in Q4, up 3.7%. [indiscernible] by programmatic, which was up a little north of 30%.

For the year, same board digital revenue was up 2.8% and programmatic was up a little over 48%.

For 2025, we're budgeting programmatic to be up give or take mid teens. And we're off to a very good start with programmatic. Local national, Q4 national represented 22.1% of our book.

Local, regional was at 77.9%. That's 1% up for local. Over Q4 of twenty twenty three, 1% down. For national. Q4 though was a different story. National rebounded Local, regional was up 3.5% and nationalprogrammatic. Was up 3.5%. As we move into Q1, As I mentioned, Q1's got a difficult comp for us. It's not going to be up to the same degree as we anticipate the full year. [indiscernible] give or take flattish with sequential improvement, modest sequential improvement as we move through the year. Categories of relative strength, as I mentioned, service, Q4 up 10.7%, public servicegovernment up 13.7% Building and construction up 17.9%, and categories of relative mention, relative weakness, Healthcare, down 6.6% and insurance down 5%. Well, that's it for our comments. We're happy to open it up for questions.

Certainly, Mr. Riley. Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, if you would like to ask a question, And we'll go first this morning to Cameron McVeigh of Morgan Stanley.

Hey, good morning, guys. [indiscernible] It's good to hear that the national ad spend is turning up a bit. [indiscernible] if that's driven by any specific vertical or if it's more broad based And in your view, what may be driving the turnaround there?

And then secondly, the 2025 AFFO guidance was a bit below Street estimates.

Estimates. It seems to be a function of lower expected net income And I believe you said you expect 3% acquisition adjusted revenue growth in '20 Is that driving most of this? Or are you expecting higher costs anywhere, maybe ERP or corporate expenses? Any color there would be helpful. Thank you.

Sure. So let's start with the AFFO question. So there were a couple of things that contributed last year that will not contribute this year. I would note we won't have the benefit of the Vistar net income. This year that we had last year that contributed to AFFO growth. And we also have as Jay mentioned, slightly higher maintenance CapEx that's going to be a slight headwind when it comes to AFFO growth. Elevated expenses recall that we are in peak spend for our ERP conversion. You're going to see again continued corporate growth and expenditures until we get through our conversion, which we anticipate around Q1 of next year. And as we move into 'twenty six and 'twenty seven, you're going to see corporate expenses decline. Pretty significantly.

So yes, I think those are the primary ingredients the revenue guide. Q1 is going to be a little softer for us and then we're going to accelerate as we move through the year. And then As I mentioned, Q4 right now the pacings look quite nice. But we do have to work diligently to replace those political dollars.

And Cameron, just to add a little bit of color there. Between CapEx and the loss of Vistar, it's about a $0.13 headwind. And then also, as you recall, we had muted acquisition activity last year. So if you look at it from on a pro form a as actual basis, acquisitions are only adding about 20 basis points this year and in typical years we would add a little more to FFO.

Got it. That's helpful. Thank you.

Thank you. We'll go next now to David Karnovsky at JPMorgan.

Sean, you noted $150,000,000 of potential M and A. This year. I don't know if you could speak a bit to the pipeline right now. Should we assume that figure comprises mostly small deals or is anything kind of more sizable assuming there? And then guess you touched upon it in your prepared remarks, but this dollar T Mobile, I don't know, but you can talk to what that means for programmatic generally. Thanks.

Sure. So yes, the M and A pipeline we put out the word last year that we wanted to focus on retiring the term A. And when that word gets out from Lamar, folks that are thinking about selling, they say, okay, I'll wait. So we that is happening. Folks that now know that we're active again. Are coming to market. And it runs the gamut of deal sizes.

There's some that are $2,000,000 There's many that are in the $5,000,000 to $10,000,000 And then we've got a couple that are in that sort of 40 or 50 range that that we hope to pry loose. So it's in that sense, it's a typical year. Of good Lamar tuck in activity where we're [indiscernible] being active and aggressive And then Vistar and T Mobile, I'm really excited about it. It's T Mobile is a very entrepreneurial company. They have an incredible brand. They understand marketing. They love out of home. They actually have a small position in an out of home business that actually has screens And I think as they looked at the landscape of what's going on with digital out of home and solve Vistar as the clear global leader, They jumped in and they were aggressive. And I think that only bodes well They have unique insights into consumer behavior based on the data that that they have access to by being one of the nation's premier cellular providers. And they also understand marketing. So I think it can only be good for the industry, which bodes well for us as the owner of the largest large format digital network in the country.

Thank you. Thank you. We go next now to Daniel O'Sley of Wells Fargo. Thank you.

When comparing your national growth to some of your peers, it looks like the recovery is lagged behind a bit.

Can you help us unpack why that may be? You think there are any structural drivers behind the national weakness there?

Yes, Daniel, I think there's some truth to that. Part of it is the natural consequence of our footprint. National ad spend tends to be focused top three DMAs, particularly New York and LA, where our footprint is not as robust as as say out front or clear channel. So that has a little bit to do with it. It is also driven by categories and how they recover. In particular, when you look at the recovery of the entertainment category, movie category coming out of The strike in the prior year They tend to get much more of that business than we do. The entertainment category in particular focuses on [indiscernible] LA.

And when you look particularly at Outfront, they probably have the best distribution and outdoor footprint in LA and they tend to to get more of those dollars.

That's helpful. If I can sneak in a follow-up. On billboard yields, you've been running at a pretty high occupancy rates across your boards to the year. So I just wanted to hear how you view the pricing environment today how you think about your ability to continue to drive price Thank you. [indiscernible] that's the case, Daniel.

Virtually all of the gains last year were driven by rate and we anticipate that that's going to be the case this year.

I would I would say basically we're at peak occupancy. And given that, we have to drive rate if we're going to hit our goals.

Thank you.

Thank you. We go next now to Lance Vitasna at TD Cowen.

Thanks guys for taking the questions. I have two. The first is on CapEx.

Hi, thanks. Can you hear me? [indiscernible] Yes, great. First question on CapEx, I think you mentioned $350,000,000 to $375,000,000 digital conversions this year. Did I hear that right? And in any case, could you give us a sense for the expected cadence of that spend And I noticed on the total CapEx line in 2024, we saw this big uptick in 4Q. Would you expect that pattern to repeat in 2025?

I'm going to say that the cadence of spend on digital probably going to be sort of ratable through the year.

We don't see any sort of spikes in terms of that deployment. There are a few things that are going to cause our total CapEx to also increase this year. We've got some extraordinary CapEx in our logo division. Which is hitting us this year. We've We are also we own something in the neighborhood of 130 buildings out there and We have a little bit of extraordinary CapEx in building some new buildings and refurbishing some old ones. If I had to highlight anything that was sort of extraordinary, that would be it. [indiscernible] maybe Q4's elevated CapEx was related to hurricanes in Q3.

So that might explain a little bit of the uptick in Q4 That's helpful. And then just back on the '25 guidance, the revenue 3% I'm trying to square that with some industry and trade sources, which are talking about more like 5% domestic out of home ad revenue spend growth this year. And you talk about having the best team in at home and I tend to agree And yet if I compare your projected growth relative to what Magna Global and others are saying, it just seems very conservative. And I'm wondering how we square that circle. Do you think that just are the magnitude is just too high? You could look to others and they'll have a different number. You also need to keep in mind that they're looking at out of home very broadly defined and there are some for example, digital out of home screens that aren't in our portfolio that are being deployed very quickly, I would highlight the retail television networks that are that are popping up seemingly everywhere. So that's in their numbers. The recovery of cinema Advertising is also in their number, which again, that's not in our portfolio. So that explains some of it.

It's sort of different portfolios. And then I would say also that Again, it depends on who you're looking at. The number that that I've been circling around is total out of home. [indiscernible] between 3.54%. And again, there's some portfolio differences as smaller screens recover. Particularly again in sort of the transit space as well.

Very good. Thank you for your help. Thank you. We'll go next now to Ali Yassin at Wolfe Research. Hi. Thanks a lot for taking my question. This is another follow-up on the deployment of new digital signs. You gave kind of your goal of three fifty, stretch goal of three seventy five. What would you guys think about as the largest number of digital signs that you could see rolling out in a year? And what do you kind of consider the limiting factor for the pace of static to digital conversions?

Hey, Ali. Good question.

We're pedal to the metal this year. So So if we hit three seventy five, we will have essentially deployed more in a given year than we have I think, ever. The gating issues are number one regulatory permitting that takes time, it takes a lot of effort, We have to sit down with city leadership and and make sure that they're comfortable comfortable with what we're doing and get fully permitted. And then these are Construction projects, we have to retrofit the structure to make sure that it can hold the the getting digital units.

From our vendors and then the crews have to be there on time, the power has to get that is engaged in a construction project. And so so when you add it all up, if we hit three seventy five, we will have we will have had a good year.

Thanks. That's helpful. And that's all from me.

And there's no further questions at this time. So Mr. Riley, I'd like to turn things back to sir, for any closing comments.

Well, great. Thank you all for your interest in Lamar Lamar we will talk again next quarter.

Thank you, Mr. Riley. Again, ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude today's conference call. We'd like to thank you all so much for joining us and wish you all a great day.