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Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. Stock Price: Quote, Forecast, Splits & News (MGR)

Perplexity Finance

Company Profile

Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. Price & Performance (MGR)

Stock Performance

Updated Apr 17, 8:00 PM UTC

Affiliated Managers Group, Inc.

$20.14USD

++$0.12 (+0.6%)

After Hours

+$0.029 (+0.14%)

Open

$20.16

Year High

$25.16

P/E Ratio

Low

$20.08

Year Low

$19.92

Volume

24.29K

High

$20.18

Market Cap

$4.48B

Dividend Yield

0.03%

Latest News

Analysts Maintain Mixed Outlook as Affiliated Managers Group Shares Edge Up
Apr 17, 2025
Affiliated Managers Group stock closed at $156.09 on April 17, up 0.315% for the day, despite fluctuating within a 1.91% range. Analyst sentiment remains mixed, with a consensus rating of 'Hold' and price targets lowered recently. Short-term trends suggest potential further declines, but the stock remains actively watched.12
Institutional Investors Boost Stakes in Affiliated Managers Group Amid Volatility
Apr 3, 2025
Recent filings reveal increased holdings in Affiliated Managers Group by several institutional investors, even as the stock faces sector-wide headwinds. Despite price target cuts from major analysts, the company maintains a strong return on equity and healthy margins, indicating continued confidence from large shareholders.34
Strategic Moves and Earnings Beat Highlight Affiliated Managers Group's Recent Performance
Apr 12, 2025
Affiliated Managers Group recently surpassed quarterly earnings expectations, reporting $6.53 EPS against a $6.03 estimate. However, revenue missed forecasts and shares have faced pressure. The company is also exploring a sale of its Comvest Partners stake, signaling ongoing portfolio adjustments amid market volatility.56

What's Happening

Peers

Earnings

Report Date

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Rev Estimate

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Avg 1d Change

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Report Period

H1 2025

EPS Estimate

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Implied Move 1d

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Transcript

1m 20s

Led by our own senior experts with support from the University of Sydney, to build Australia's best property people in the fields of development, investment and asset management. This will help Mirvac. I'm sure Mirvac will have the best Capricorn capabilities to deliver on our strategy and help us continue to attract retain and develop the best property professionals in Australia. Secondly, we've become a major sponsor of the GWS Giants AFL We've kept our good brand a bit of a secret for many years. And this is a great opportunity to increase our brand awareness nationally, with the most watched football code and broaden our relationship with the Western Sydney community We were active across MPC, industrial, retail and build to rent. To take you through the financials, I'll now hand over to Courtney.

2m 13s

Thanks, Campbell, and good morning, everyone. Three messages from me today. We continue executing on our strategy with results in line with expectations. With active management, the balance sheet is in great shape. And we have good visibility of earnings into FY 2026 and beyond. Our first half result is in line with expectations with operating profit after tax of $236,000,000 or $0.06 per stapled security. We delivered this by executing on key initiatives and are on track to deliver our FY 2025 full year guidance. [indiscernible] the Investment segment contributed $3.00 $2,000,000 which was down 2% on the prior half Due to the impact of asset sales in office and retail, This was offset by completions in industrial and living and in particular, a full six months contribution from land lease.

3m 9s

The Fund segment contributed $14,000,000 down $2,000,000 as a result of asset devaluations in funds management and increased CapEx fees in asset management. Development segment contributed £81,000,000 down 5,000,000 We dollars This includes contributions from our committed projects such as 55 Pitt Street, which were partly offset by a construction loss at LIV and Nura. With a challenging construction environment in Queensland impacting delivery. Residential contributed $101,000,000 This includes lower residential sales or settlement, sorry, than the prior period, and earnings from Capital Partnering. Finance costs were flat for the period with lower COGS interest due to fewer residential settlements offset by increased interest from debt in our co investment vehicles. We've reported a small statutory profit impacted mainly by devaluations in the office sector with signs we are nearing an inflection point. So overall, we continue executing on our strategy with these results in line with our expectations Moving to the balance sheet. We've maintained a highly active approach to managing the balance sheet. With asset sales and capital partnering initiatives helping to manage our capital commitments. So far this year, we've refinanced £1,700,000,000 of debt on favorable terms completed $340,000,000 of asset sales and our residential capital partnering initiatives raised $1,000,000,000 with $300,000,000 of this received to date.

4m 46s

We have good visibility of further funding sources and specifically in the second half, have the balance of our asset disposal program the execution of further capital partnering in our development division, and in residential, with 30% of our £1,900,000,000 presales balance expected to settle in the second half of FY twenty twenty five. Our balance sheet is in a strong position. With headline gearing at 26%. On a pro form a basis following the settlement of 1020 Bond Street in mid January which put gearing well within our 20% to 30% range. We have $1,000,000,000 of liquidity and a strong credit rating. The weighted average cost of debt lifted modestly to 5.7%, reflecting a higher proportion of floating rate debt in the period. We're in a good position to benefit from any reduction in the cash rate with hedging at 58%. A less than three year average hedge maturity. So overall, with our active approach to managing capital, the balance sheet is in great shape. Providing us with the capacity and flexibility to be ready for future opportunities. Now moving to the visibility of earnings. Campbell outlined, we have improved the quality and visibility of EPS and NAV growth into FY 2026 and beyond, across all parts of the platform.

6m 11s

This improved visibility will be delivered through an integrated our integrated model and driven by our committed commercial and mixed use developments, an expected pickup in residential settlements and margin recovery, [indiscernible] and potential interest rate tailwinds. To bring this to life, In the Investment segment, we estimate the committed commercial and mixed use development pipeline and our expected share of Badgeries Creek Stage 1 will deliver over $100,000,000 of new stabilized NOI. Investments will also benefit from the delivery of our land lease development pipeline, In commercial mixed use, we have greater visibility of the value generated from our committed development pipeline. With €650,000,000 yet to be realized through development profits and NTA uplift. In funds, we will receive growing fees as we manage our partner's share of these assets. And then to residential, where we expect to see market recovery and margin returning back to our through cycle range in FY 2026. Underpinning this is a continued focus on costs and potential tailwinds of lower debt This all provides strong visibility of earnings growth into FY 2026 and beyond. So in closing, our half year result is in line with our The balance sheet is in good shape.

7m 38s

And we have good visibility of earnings into FY '26 and beyond. Thank you. And with that, I'll hand over to Richard.

7m 50s

Thank you, Courtney, and good morning, everyone. Our investment portfolio is performing very well. We've delivered strong operating metrics, including positive leasing spreads across all sectors. To living, logistics and premium office with disposal of further non core assets and development completions. This will continue to improve the quality of the portfolio increase underlying cash yields and improve our valuation outlook. Whilst valuations have been a headwind in the last few years, particularly in office, we believe we're now at an inflection point for quality assets which is also improving the outlook for our NTA. And growth is further underpinned by over £100,000,000 of net operating income to come from our committed development pipeline over the next few years. In office, we're turning a corner. It's clear customers want better quality, better located and more sustainable space. And we are leaning into this trend with one of the youngest most sustainable and highest quality portfolios in the sector. This is enabling us to drive strong operating metrics with great forward leasing progress and attractive leasing spreads of 3.7%, which by the way would be closer to 5% including heads of agreement. Valuations fell 4%, however, as mentioned, we believe the devaluation cycle is near the end for quality assets supported by improved transaction volumes particularly in Sydney.

9m 33s

Market data provides further reason for optimism. Effective rental growth and net absorption is improving across most markets for quality assets For example, net absorption in Sydney in the last year was the strongest it's been in nearly a decade. And there's an emerging lack of new supply with largely prohibitive economic rents at this point in the cycle. We're achieving strong NOI growth, up 13% with development completions at Aspect and further completions to come at Aspect and batteries. We have substantial positive reversion to play for with portfolio underwriting at around 20% and leasing spreads at 33%. And we have a focused exposure to the attractive Sydney market with solid fundamentals backed by continuing capital appetite. And excellent proximity to a substantial infrastructure pipeline including the Western Sydney Airport. You will note on the slide there's been a slight decline in occupancy However, this is due to a strategic vacancy at Gow Street, which presents a significant reversion opportunity. In retail, we've been focused on curating a uniquely urban portfolio. With strong catchment fundamentals and you've seen us diverse some non core assets in previous years to reshape the portfolio accordingly. Active management initiatives are driving positive leasing spreads supported by robust sales growth.

11m 17s

Record specialty sales productivity and low occupancy costs of 14% also bode well for future rent increases and we're optimistic about the outlook. Supported by real wages and population growth against a backdrop of diminishing new supply. Capital has also identified the resilient outlook for the sector resulting in a material uplift in transaction volumes and supporting valuation growth in our portfolio. Living is a key competitive advantage for Mirvac and we have a strategic focus to up weight our investment exposure to the sector. Pleasingly, this half year, we've generated $26,000,000 of EBIT, Our established platforms are delivering. In Build to Rent, leasing at Liv Aston is progressing well. Now 66% leased since opening in August with a further 900 apartments to be delivered at Livinura and Albert this calendar year.

12m 27s

Leasing spreads remained strong at over 4% and valuations are positive. In land lease, progress has been very encouraging. We now have over 7,000 lots under control a 15% improvement since we secured the acquisition just over a year ago. Which achieved an increased average settlement price of eight percent two zero nine settlements and a 10% increase on re leasing. And our growth outlook is further supported by the acquisition of three new communities including around 200 lots at our Everleigh MPC site. And we'll be activating seven new communities in the coming twelve months. Within Living, both build to rent and land lease provide enormous potential for scale. And our market leadership position and established platforms provide an excellent foundation for continued momentum and growth. Thank you. And I'll now hand over to Scott. Thanks, Rich, and good morning, everyone. We've established our funds management platform with the right talent, processes and policies now in place to support our growth. Our third party capital under management has grown to almost $16,000,000,000 with established vehicles across premium office, industrial, and the living sectors, all with aligned capital partners in place. Our unique and market leading Leap BTR fund has seen great momentum in the last six months.

14m 4s

The end of this year, we will have 2,200 operational apartments across five assets in three states. [indiscernible] remain committed to our medium term target of 5,000 apartments and after purposely pausing for a couple of years, due to the disruption that we've seen in the construction sector, we're now actively engaged on our next opportunities. With the recent MIT changes and the overall supply demand imbalance for rental product, international capital interest has been reaffirmed. And domestic capital is now showing interest in our portfolio as it moves towards a stabilized income profile. Our Murbac industrial venture and our partnership with Australian Retirement Trust continues to grow is on track to exceed $1,000,000,000 with the completion of Aspect. We also have strong visibility of future growth opportunities from Mirvac's $2,000,000,000 industrial pipeline. In office, we have recently seen a return of capital interest for well located premium portfolios that have been appropriately mark to market AMWAF is well positioned and we believe we have seen the inflection point for Redemptions are on track to be cleared this year. Gearing is one of the lowest in the peer set at 29 Percent And 33 Alford Street is on track to complete this half with 86% pre commitments in place.

15m 32s

So with capital interest returning for the highest quality assets in the best locations, we're targeting a capital raise later this year. In closing, our three established [indiscernible] And we've got further opportunities identified, [indiscernible] have deep capability in our targeted subsectors, which are supported by strong fundamentals and growing capital demand. Our relationships with our trusted and outlined capital will continue to free up Murvac's balance sheet deliver new earnings streams and generate a higher return on our invested capital. Thank you, and I'll now hand to Stu. Thanks, Scott. We've built positive momentum in our development business. Making significant progress across our projects. In the CMU portfolio, the execution on pre leasing and the introduction of capital partners has substantially de risked our development earnings in the years ahead. As a result, we have clear visibility over contributors to development earnings and NTA uplift in the coming years, with new NOI and around $650,000,000,000 of development value to be unlocked. The Mirvac creation capability remains our competitive advantage and our major projects are progressing well. At 55 Pitt Street, 35% of the building is pre leased, We're in advanced discussions on further leasing and we are completing into a very restricted supply environment.

17m 15s

Construction is progressing well and we expect profits to be realized over the next three years along with revaluation gains on completion. Our seed industrial project adjacent to the new West Sydney Airport is in advanced discussions with capital. To unlock value. With profit contribution expected in the second half. Finally, at Harborside, the record pre sales and strong pre leasing is attracting deep capital. Appetite with active discussions underway. With the majority of profit recognition to come on completion in FY 2028. While the realized profits from these projects is significant, there are considerable additional benefits of these completed developments, including new quality reoccurring income, funds management streams, and NTA uplift. Moving to residential. Our unique offering spanning from inner ring to outer markets strong brand reputation, a focus on quality and upfront amenity is paying dividends with a significant increase in sales activity. We had a number of successful launches during the period. Unconditional exchanges are up 51% to nine forty seven with a further three sixty one conditional sales on hand and leads were up 36% over the period. We had a record launch weekend at our flagship harbor equating to over $700,000,000 of presales with over 40% of those customers being repeat Mervak customers.

19m

We saw robust MPC sales momentum highlighted by our Sydney middle ring projects at High Forest and Riverlands. As a result of our success, our presales the highest level since 2018. We expect a second half skewed to settlements with our pre sold Queensland apartment projects completing in the coming months. Sales at Willoughby have been slower. However, we are seeing improved activity now that [indiscernible] has been completed, retail is trading and we expect this strong momentum to continue in the second half. As foreshadowed at our FY 'twenty four result, we have a focus on unlocking value and driving higher returns from our residential development pipeline. Consistent with this strategy, we've introduced high quality partners in Sumitomo and an existing partner across three projects. Which has unlocked value driven higher returns and released capital. Gross margins were 19% over the period, but we expect these to be lower in the second half with the settlements of delivery impacted apartment projects in Queensland. We expect these challenges to be contained to these projects which will all be completed in FY 2025. [indiscernible] We're seeing signs of stabilization in New South Wales and Victorian construction markets. With a return to competitive tendering with pricing coming in at or below budget.

20m 36s

Our recent restocking of 8,400 lots last year plus the approval of the conditional acquisition of an additional 1,200 lots in the period will bring our total lots under control to over 28,000 and leave us well placed to benefit from an increase in launches over the next twelve to eighteen months. We are encouraged by the strong market fundamentals and improving market outlook. Our improved sales momentum is well supported by a pent up in demand driven by strong immigration, supportive government policies at all levels of government. We anticipate that this will continue to build momentum and drive sales volumes as buyers benefit from greater certainty over interest rate and the corresponding improved affordability. The performance in our residential business in the coming years. First, a continuation of the rebound in sales across our established projects. Secondly, a direct line of sight to improve margins in FY 2026 and beyond. And finally, our business is shovel ready to respond to improving demand with new releases and launches across more fronts than ever before. Thank you. And I'll now hand back to Campbell.

22m 3s

Thanks, Stew. As we look to the future, we remain laser focused on our financial performance and setting ourselves up for growth. The investment portfolio will benefit from the living, industrial and office assets under construction that will deliver a circa $100,000,000 of recurring NOI in coming years. We're seeing more meaningful contributions from land lease we'll be releasing seven new projects shortly. Our residential business is showing signs of recovery as volumes were [indiscernible] construction costs stabilize, and margins returned to their historic averages. Our restock pipeline and ability to sell on more fronts than we have before means we're well prepared to take advantage of a pickup in activity. Capital partnering will continue to be a focus area. The three MPC JVs we've announced and successful partnering across living, industrial, and mixed use projects clearly shows that capital wants to align with Mirvac given our strong creation capability. These important partnerships allow us to accelerate our residential release program and receive fees over and above the development returns that we enjoy. Our balance sheet is now well placed to selectively restock the pipeline with opportunities across CMU, almost 10,000 residential lots secured in the past twelve months.

23m 30s

The significant construction challenges are largely behind us, see more favorable outlook for valuations and we're well positioned to capitalize on our recovery across all parts of our business. We remain on track to deliver on our EPS guidance for FY 2025 and feel positive about returning to growth in FY 2026 and beyond. With that, I'll now open up for questions. Thank you.

24m 1s

I will introduce each caller by name and ask you to go ahead.

24m 5s

You will then hear a beep Our first question comes from Tom Boda from UBS. Please go ahead.

24m 22s

Good morning.

24m 23s

For the presentation. Just wanted to ask about the nine Willoughby project. 62% pre sold and you expect to get the proceeds from the balance of the apartments in the second half of this year. Just wanted to understand how much capital is in that project and how recent sales rates Stu, do you want to take that?

24m 44s

Yes, thanks. Look, we've really seen an uptick in sales in the last few weeks. In fact, last weekend, a alone, we did five sales. So starting to see the momentum as expected off the back of the project completing the retail opening and really a recognition from the market of the quality that we've delivered into that market but also a recognition of the significant undersupply that is now starting to appear particularly in those infill locations.

25m 17s

So how much capital was in that project, sorry, that's outstanding?

25m 22s

I think that we probably have around $250,000,000 to $300,000,000 of inventory to sell over the course of the next the next half?

25m 35s

Okay, thanks. And then just on the office one, I'm just trying to reconcile like for like occupancy stable, releasing spread 3.7%, fixed rental reviews also would have been around 3.7%, say. How do I reconcile that like for like?

25m 58s

Hi, Tom. So the main the main driver is has been the 275 Tenth Street vacancy, which we've had in the period. We've had the full impact of handing back of about 16,000 square meters. For which we've leased about half of that, but the lease is yet to commence at lease will commence in the second half.

26m 20s

So you've seen a full half year contribution from that space. I should mention though that if you exclude 275 Kent Street, then the like for like number would be much stronger to be about 5.5%. So it gives you a feel for how the portfolio is otherwise performing. And we've seen really strong leasing momentum continue. So we're very pleased with the outlook that's giving us a really strong foundation and derisking our forward leasing profile, which is very pleasing.

26m 55s

Thank you. The next question comes from Lauren Barry at Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead after the beat. [indiscernible] Can I just ask on 7 Spencer Street?

27m 11s

It looks like you've taken a development [indiscernible] on that project, but there's been nothing going through FFO in the development line. So can you just talk about what happens there and if that impacts your ability to unlock any CMU projects profits in the future, please? Yes. Hi. Thanks, Lauren. 7 Spencers progressing well actually. I think it completes within the next [indiscernible] Positive. So we're now at 16% heads of agreement. You might recall we bought Daibaru into that project in part 50% sitting beside us that allowed us to lock our development earnings in on the NOI spread. But on the part we've retained, so our 50% that we'll own ongoing, we have taken a revaluation loss in the period. So we sold it down at about 4.7 We've revalued it to 6.25 just given where markets are in Melbourne and where that asset sits. And so that's the $33,000,000 loss that you're seeing in that development revaluation gain. But the project is on track to be completed, and we've got a rent guarantee in there that runs about ten months past PC. And so the progress on leasing is really positive.

28m 34s

And we'll see what markets look like in eighteen months or two years' time.

28m 41s

I was nervous that that would be turning to a loss in the CMU lines as well?

28m 48s

No. So no is the answer to that sorry, just quickly no is the answer to that two things that we have to do to continue to deliver that is deliver on time to cost, which is going according to plan and the lease up period, which is why I mentioned the rent guarantee. So we are making progress on the leasing.

29m 14s

Okay, great. And then my other question is just around build to rent. It does sound like your [indiscernible] to pick up some new opportunities. Just wondering why the choice to invest in that sector given that you've been in it for a few years.

29m 29s

It's only doing $4,000,000 to $8,000,000 annualized at the moment. I know you're still in ramp up, but that's well under 2% yield on your invested capital at the moment. So can you just talk about why you want to pick up more in that sector, please?

29m 46s

Yes. I'll take that Lauren, and thanks for the question. Look, we like this sector for a couple of things. It's really resilient income. First and foremost, there's very little CapEx associated with the income streams that we're generating We're getting good like on like growth and have been getting that for a period of time. But the buildup phase has taken a lot of balance sheet, delivering not a lot of income over the last three or four years, Once we get through this year, you'll start to see a more meaningful [indiscernible] we move to stabilized income bit that we're really pleased with is just where occupancy is sitting in the portfolio, the speed of lease up, at Liv Aston has probably exceeded our expectations. And the stabilized portfolio of Liv Munro and Liv Indigo is leased really well. So think all of the characteristics that we're looking for and good long term resilient income is there. It's just a matter of getting to scale and we're not far from that.

30m 47s

Thank you. The next question comes from Ben Brayshore at Berenjoey. [indiscernible] Campbell. Just a question on the capital partnering transaction. At High Forest with Sumitomo. Has that contributed to development profit for the residential in the first half. Could you just clarify, please?

31m 15s

Yes. Look, I will and I'll probably hand the call as well. Yes, all of the JV partnering will help deliver profit into the group. And the way we think about it is kind of twofold. As a developer, we're in the business of creating value. And we can do that in numerous ways. That can be through rezoning of land, it can be through sales. It can be through multiple different avenues, including built form. We still own 50% of these projects. So all we've done is lighten our own capital load to help us deliver these projects Yes, it does realize some profit upfront, but most importantly, we're still aligned with that capital to keep generating profits for the foreseeable future. As we roll out all of those programs. So we just see it as a way of improving the velocity of our capital means we can do more with less money and all of those things help us grow the residential pipeline a little quicker than the otherwise would You want to add to that, Courtney? No. I mean, the three projects we part on, I would just like my goal is probably just given the stage of where those projects are in their life cycle, Margoa has probably contributed the most amount to the earnings this year.

32m 29s

But as Campbell said, we're focusing on doing it. We've done it before. At Smith Lane and we'll continue to do it just to increase the velocity of the capital.

32m 38s

Yes, terrific. Thank you. Just on the retail lease expiry profile, it would appear as though that there is quite a bit of space to work through in the second half of this year. Could you just discuss how you positioned on that. And how confident are you that [indiscernible] I guess, continue to hold at current levels Yes? Thanks, Ben. The the strategic holdovers, leases that are already committed the true underlying expiry profile is is far more modest. It's closer to around 10%. What I would say is we've got very strong occupancy at 98.5%. We've seen strong like for like growth. We've highlighted the positive leasing spreads. And we're very encouraged with the leasing activity across the portfolio. Generally, and that's giving us continued reason for optimism. Average rent reviews have improved materially from about 3.9% to about 4.5%. So we're getting good traction. And we think the broader backdrop is resilient with the outlook consumption generally.

34m 3s

The next question comes from David Pobocki at Macquarie Group. David, please go ahead after the beep.

34m 13s

Good morning, Campbell, Courtney and team. Thanks for taking my questions. Just the first one on resi. It sounds like resi activity is [indiscernible] $685,000,000 and $947,000,000 lot in the first half. Just curious if you could provide any color on you've seen this half to date, please? Stu, do you want to take that?

34m 37s

Yes. Look, I think that what we have seen is our strategy and our capability really playing out in terms of being able to respond to demand in that middle ring inner ring in particular. And I suppose the one thing that sets Mirvac apart is that built form capability where we've got really strong conviction, but also the ability to deliver turnkey solutions right through from inner, middle and outer ring, but in [indiscernible] At projects like Riverlands and High Forest with housing both the attached and detached anywhere between $1,100,000 up to about $2,500,000 and that's probably where in the last half we've seen the deepest demand, the most unsatisfied demand in the market. And we think that that will continue to play out and we're just making sure that we're absolutely shovel ready to respond onto that increasing demand as interest rates moderate Equally, that premium end of the market such as what we've seen at High Forest still remains very resilient and demand for that type of product, that high quality product evident in the very strong sales result we had over the three day weekend of that launch. Thank you. And just the second one.

36m 7s

You touched on cost discipline through the period. Maybe once a quarter, if you can just provide a bit of color around what you've been doing, please noting unallocated overheads well being down about $3,000,000 versus the PCP. Yes.

36m 24s

I think the main picture is we're in an inflation environment and largely costs are flat period on period across all of our cost lines. They've only gone up $2,000,000 We've got a technology program rolling off We've got businesses growing like build to rent, so we're bringing resources on. But overall, we're still focused on trying to keep the cost line flat. And I guess that's why we call out that cost discipline. And particularly in an inflationary market, that's hard. We want to reward our people and make sure that that's coming through, and therefore, we've got to make other decisions. And I think we're focused on that. And that's the reference throughout the speech.

37m 5s

Thank you. The next question comes from Richard Jones at JPMorgan. Please go ahead. After the beep.

37m 16s

Hi. Thanks for taking my questions. Just in relation to the JV sales in resi, you called out that $1,000,000,000 in sales will be recognized at $300,000,000 has been received to date. Can you just talk us through the timing of that And whether all the profit on sale has been recognized?

37m 36s

Yes, thanks, Richard. So the $1,000,000,000 I referred to is capital commitment of which we've received 300,000,000 So we've executed on the sales. We've recognized all of the up front profit from the sale of the land into those joint ventures. And ongoing beside our partners will recognize settlement revenue is how to think about it. So the flagging of the €1,000,000,000 is about capital management and the fact that our partners will contribute that $1,000,000,000 versus us needing to.

38m 9s

Okay. Thanks, Courtney. That's clear. Just a question on the earnings trajectory. I understand you're not going give guidance beyond this year, but I guess the guidance at June was was well below where market expectations were for this year. And the market has got a strong earnings recovery factored in with EPS above $0.13 next year and and circa $0.15 in FY 'twenty seven. Just wondering if you think comment whether you're comfortable with these project projections maybe just leave it with that.

38m 48s

Yes, look, Richard, we're probably as you understand probably not going to go into guidance for FY 2026 yet. Certainly, there's a bit to play for going through. I guess what we did want to bring to everyone's attention is that we are creating a lot of net operating income in our CMU pipeline and it's pretty much funded. We are seeing a growth in residential volumes and a return to margins. And the big one is the return to margins. And look, we've been through a pretty tough construction environment. Made no secret of that over the last twelve months. Now that that's recovering and we're starting to see just more normalized cost escalations, we're seeing deeper pools of of subcontractors. We're seeing pricing coming in at our underwrite or even better than our underwrite We're seeing more stability in the subcontractor market. [indiscernible] All of those things are certainly helping us get a much better sense where we think margins are returning to in resi, and that's important for us. And look, we've got three or four pretty tough projects that we're finishing which are late. Which had significant cost escalation on the way through. They're coming to the end.

40m 1s

And that's pretty much why we've always said that we're re fencing the challenges that we've had really to this financial year. So if there's one message we do want you to take away, it is that we have ring fenced most of that. That will come through in the second half. So you should see that the margin line as we get into thirty June.

40m 20s

Talk about '26 thereafter.

40m 25s

Thank you. The next question comes from Adam Calvedi at CLSA. Adam, please go ahead after the beep. Yes. Hi. It's actually James Drew.

40m 39s

Just picking up on your comments around residential margins. Normalizing in FY 2026 and I think from the comment in the press as well. Can we just touch on the a bit more on the commission that you have around that?

40m 56s

Yes, Judy, you want to take that? Adam or me, James?

41m

James, look, I think that the conviction we have around that is just and the proofs in the sales numbers that we've seen come through in the half Again, it's that middle ring attached housing product where obviously strong embedded margin that we've got really good now visibility of sales rates. And that the confidence that we have in those projects [indiscernible] But in addition to that, in the greenfield, obviously, we've got some very established projects that in past cycles in that 2021, 2022 the ability to turn on volume was significant and we're starting to now be shovel ready to be able to respond to that pent up demand. So into 2026, we're very confident in terms of improved market conditions and driving that margin back to that through cycle margin of 18% to 22%.

41m 59s

Yes. Just on that three cycle target, I mean, your ten year average is 24%. [indiscernible] Look, I think that that the 18% to 22% is reflective of a contribution from both apartments and MPC. We will see higher levels of apartments start to contribute into 26, 27. And then as I said, we'll see the mass plant communities, but probably a higher degree of attached housing contribution in that middle ring, which doesn't have the high gross margin that the greenfield projects has. But importantly, it has a higher profit per lot. That will contribute into 2026, 2027 and 2028.

42m 48s

Okay. One more if I may. Can you just touch on what the first half resi margin was the partnership profits.

43m 2s

So 19% 19.5% overall I think you can if you use a 15.5% EBIT margin, you can largely back solve to the contribution from the capital partnering and probably back solve to the answer to your question. I think what's important is there's no change as she's talked about to our guidance for resi for the full year. The margin in the second half will be impacted by these projects in Queensland completing. But, yeah, no change to the guidance we've given. The next question comes from Suraj Nabani at Citi.

43m 42s

Please go ahead after the bank.

43m 47s

Hi, everyone. Good morning. So quick one on the residential sales. I saw the second quarter sales was obviously pretty strong. You have called out conditional sales as well separately. I just wanted to check firstly, the contribution from other side to those sales numbers. And what are those conditional sales, please? Stuart?

44m 12s

Yes, certainly. So just to be very clear, the sales numbers of over 900 for the half that include around 143 sales from Harborside All those 143 sales are unconditional sales. The The sales that we refer to as being conditional are just the normal sales that we have in the MPC business that in many instances are subject to title and finance that we'll see convert over the course of this second half, but also into FY 'twenty six.

44m 54s

Understand. Thank you. And I guess the other question was just again first two around construction costs. And margins How are you seeing the construction market at the moment Stu?

45m 11s

Look, I think that as we've said, for a number of halves, It has been challenging, but in particular, it has been challenging in the Queensland market. And I must call out the Queensland the Mirvac, Queensland construction team that's done an incredible those projects to completion in the next few weeks. But I think if you look at the projects that we've commenced in the last six to twelve months particularly here in Sydney at Harborside, 55 Pit, seven Spencer Street in Melbourne, Trio, Prince And Parade and Albertine.

45m 55s

Those projects are absolutely flying from a a construction perspective, from a programming perspective. We're seeing renewed depth in the subcontractor market, particularly amongst the Tier one contractors that want to work for Verbit. And we're really seeing a stabilization in cost. And as I said in my speech, what we're seeing in the market at the moment when we were out to tender competitive tendering, multiple tenderers, competing and importantly cost coming in at budget or below budget, which is quite refreshing.

46m 33s

Thank you. Our last question today comes from Donald Tuohr at Bank of America.

46m 39s

Please go ahead after the beep.

46m 44s

Hi, guys. Good morning. A couple of questions from me. [indiscernible] soft. Can you give any color on the program and what you expect in the next couple of quarters?

47m

Look, I'll take that Donald, so I actually don't think that is a soft outcome, 35% pre leased are still a number of years away from practical completion So we've got time in our side. We're moving into a market of improving fundamentals in office. Think as Richard mentioned in his speech, we've had a really significant uptake of space and absorption in Sydney CBD. We've talked for a long time about the difference between well located, good quality premium grade real estate first things that aren't that. And we've talked a lot about the really muted supply outlook in Sydney CBD. And this asset plays into all of those thematics. We have some really strong conversations underway the moment with this asset. So we're we are optimistic is probably the way I'd describe it. And hopefully see that convert into deal activity over the coming twelve eighteen, twenty four months.

48m

Understand. And we need to follow-up with this. [indiscernible] Would you still be committed to the disposal program, especially de waiting in the office sector? Given that office appears to be turning a corner. We'll be starting to look at more developments or redeployment of capital into the sector.

48m 23s

Look, I think we've been pretty clear with our view of how we want to spend our own capital. But we do have a very significant funds platform in in office as well and a lot of that funds capital is attracted to our capability of designing and building quality office assets. And over the last ten years or so, we've delivered over 10 office assets, which now are the hallmark of of our own portfolio. That capability is very attractive to our funds platform as well. So we still want to play in office. We still are very focused on premium grade. Are very focused on the two big capital cities of Sydney and Melbourne. And we're really buoyed by the fact that we're starting to see a return to what I'd call a more normalized environment which we really have struggled within a post COVID world but it certainly feels like we're seeing recovery across the board. As working from the office versus home is starting to shift a little bit Thank you. There are no further questions. I'll now hand back to Campbell Hanan for closing remarks.

49m 32s

Right. Well, look, thank you everyone for taking time out of your day on Valentine's Day to be with us. So thank you. We look forward to seeing many of you in person in the coming months. And certainly the coming days. So thank you for listening.

49m 50s

That concludes today's call. Thank you for joining us. You may now log out.

Key Insights

Mirvac delivered a first half operating profit after tax of $236 million ($0.06 per stapled security), in line with expectations, and remains on track to deliver FY2025 full year guidance, with strong balance sheet management and $1 billion in liquidity.
The Investment segment contributed $302 million (down 2% due to office and retail asset sales), Funds segment contributed $14 million (down $2 million due to asset devaluations), and Development segment contributed $81 million (down $5 million, impacted by construction losses in Queensland).
Residential sales momentum is strong, with unconditional exchanges up 51% to 947, record launches (e.g., Harborside with $700 million in presales), and presales at the highest level since 2018; residential gross margins were 19% in the first half but are expected to be lower in the second half due to Queensland project completions, with margins expected to normalize to 18–22% in FY2026.
Mirvac has good visibility of earnings growth into FY2026 and beyond, underpinned by over $100 million of new stabilized NOI from committed commercial and mixed-use developments, $650 million of development value yet to be realized, and a strong residential pipeline with over 28,000 lots under control.
The company is seeing signs of stabilization and recovery in office and construction markets, with positive leasing spreads (3.7%–5.5%), strong retail occupancy (98.5%), robust build-to-rent and land lease momentum, and continued focus on capital partnering to accelerate growth and improve returns.

Recent Transcripts

Earnings on track with FY25 guidance, resi recovery and FY26 growth outlook.

Income Statement

Revenue

	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
Revenue	$2B	$2.4B	$2.3B	$2.1B	$2B
Cost of Revenue	$884M	$1B	$1.1B	$908M	$915M
Gross Profit	$1.1B	$1.4B	$1.3B	$1.2B	$1.1B
Gross Profit %	56%	57%	54%	56%	55%
R&D Expenses	$0.25	$0.47	$0.74	$0	$0

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

Revenue

$2B

$2.4B

$2.3B

$2.1B

$2B

Cost of Revenue

$884M

$1B

$1.1B

$908M

$915M

Gross Profit

$1.1B

$1.4B

$1.3B

$1.2B

$1.1B

Gross Profit %

56%

57%

54%

56%

55%

R&D Expenses

$0.25

$0.47

$0.74

Cash Flow

Net Income

	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
Net Income	$427M	$890M	$1.4B	$906M	$741M
Dep. & Amort.	$160M	$52M	$67M	$61M	$0
Def. Tax	$27M	$91M	$32M	$31M	$31M
Stock Comp.	$119M	$127M	$114M	$112M	$112M
Chg. in WC	$10M	$120M	$139M	-$229M	-$57M

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

Net Income

$427M

$890M

$1.4B

$906M

$741M

Dep. & Amort.

$160M

$52M

$67M

$61M

Def. Tax

$27M

$91M

$32M

$31M

Stock Comp.

$119M

$127M

$114M

$112M

Chg. in WC

$10M

$120M

$139M

-$229M

-$57M

Balance Sheet

Cash

	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
Cash	$1B	$909M	$429M	$814M	$950M
ST Investments	$75M	$79M	$717M	$461M	$57M
Cash & ST Inv.	$1.1B	$987M	$1.1B	$1.3B	$1B
Receivables	$422M	$419M	$316M	$368M	$410M
Inventory	$1	$1	$1.5B	$0	$0

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

Cash

$1B

$909M

$429M

$814M

$950M

ST Investments

$75M

$79M

$717M

$461M

$57M

Cash & ST Inv.

$1.1B

$987M

$1.1B

$1.3B

$1B

Receivables

$422M

$419M

$316M

$368M

$410M

Inventory

$1.5B

Go Deeper

Financial information provided by Financial Modeling Prep. Options data provided by Unusual Whales. Live transcripts provided by Quartr. All data is provided for informational purposes only, and is not intended for trading purposes or financial, investment, tax, legal, accounting or other advice. · See all tickers.

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—

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Implied Move 1d

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Transcript

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7m 38s

And we have good visibility of earnings into FY '26 and beyond. Thank you. And with that, I'll hand over to Richard.

7m 50s

9m 33s

11m 17s

12m 27s

14m 4s

15m 32s

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19m

20m 36s

22m 3s

23m 30s

24m 1s

I will introduce each caller by name and ask you to go ahead.

24m 5s

You will then hear a beep Our first question comes from Tom Boda from UBS. Please go ahead.

24m 22s

Good morning.

24m 23s

24m 44s

25m 17s

So how much capital was in that project, sorry, that's outstanding?

25m 22s

I think that we probably have around $250,000,000 to $300,000,000 of inventory to sell over the course of the next the next half?

25m 35s

25m 58s

26m 20s

26m 55s

Thank you. The next question comes from Lauren Barry at Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead after the beat. [indiscernible] Can I just ask on 7 Spencer Street?

27m 11s

28m 34s

And we'll see what markets look like in eighteen months or two years' time.

28m 41s

I was nervous that that would be turning to a loss in the CMU lines as well?

28m 48s

29m 14s

29m 29s

29m 46s

30m 47s

31m 15s

32m 29s

But as Campbell said, we're focusing on doing it. We've done it before. At Smith Lane and we'll continue to do it just to increase the velocity of the capital.

32m 38s

34m 3s

The next question comes from David Pobocki at Macquarie Group. David, please go ahead after the beep.

34m 13s

34m 37s

36m 7s

36m 24s

37m 5s

Thank you. The next question comes from Richard Jones at JPMorgan. Please go ahead. After the beep.

37m 16s

37m 36s

38m 9s

38m 48s

40m 1s

40m 20s

Talk about '26 thereafter.

40m 25s

Thank you. The next question comes from Adam Calvedi at CLSA. Adam, please go ahead after the beep. Yes. Hi. It's actually James Drew.

40m 39s

40m 56s

Yes, Judy, you want to take that? Adam or me, James?

41m

41m 59s

42m 48s

Okay. One more if I may. Can you just touch on what the first half resi margin was the partnership profits.

43m 2s

43m 42s

Please go ahead after the bank.

43m 47s

44m 12s

44m 54s

Understand. Thank you. And I guess the other question was just again first two around construction costs. And margins How are you seeing the construction market at the moment Stu?

45m 11s

45m 55s

46m 33s

Thank you. Our last question today comes from Donald Tuohr at Bank of America.

46m 39s

Please go ahead after the beep.

46m 44s

Hi, guys. Good morning. A couple of questions from me. [indiscernible] soft. Can you give any color on the program and what you expect in the next couple of quarters?

47m

48m

48m 23s

49m 32s

49m 50s

That concludes today's call. Thank you for joining us. You may now log out.

Key Insights

Mirvac delivered a first half operating profit after tax of $236 million ($0.06 per stapled security), in line with expectations, and remains on track to deliver FY2025 full year guidance, with strong balance sheet management and $1 billion in liquidity.
The Investment segment contributed $302 million (down 2% due to office and retail asset sales), Funds segment contributed $14 million (down $2 million due to asset devaluations), and Development segment contributed $81 million (down $5 million, impacted by construction losses in Queensland).
Residential sales momentum is strong, with unconditional exchanges up 51% to 947, record launches (e.g., Harborside with $700 million in presales), and presales at the highest level since 2018; residential gross margins were 19% in the first half but are expected to be lower in the second half due to Queensland project completions, with margins expected to normalize to 18–22% in FY2026.
Mirvac has good visibility of earnings growth into FY2026 and beyond, underpinned by over $100 million of new stabilized NOI from committed commercial and mixed-use developments, $650 million of development value yet to be realized, and a strong residential pipeline with over 28,000 lots under control.
The company is seeing signs of stabilization and recovery in office and construction markets, with positive leasing spreads (3.7%–5.5%), strong retail occupancy (98.5%), robust build-to-rent and land lease momentum, and continued focus on capital partnering to accelerate growth and improve returns.

Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. Price & Performance (MGR)

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