National CineMedia, Inc. Price & Performance (NCMI)

These reconciliations can be found at the end of today's earnings release or on the Investor Relations page of our website at .com. Today, we will be discussing NCM LLC's operating results as they relate to the fourth quarter and full year of 2024. Which are largely similar to [indiscernible] We're reporting NCM LLC's operating results to provide an accurate comparison to the fourth quarter and full year of 2023, when we also reported NCM LLC's results, given fiscal year 2023 results were unconsolidated. Now, I'll turn the call over to Tom. Thank you, Chan, and good afternoon, everyone.

Welcome to our fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings call. Before we begin, I want to take a moment to address the devastating wildfires that have swept through Southern California our hearts go out to all those impacted by the tragedy. Families who have lost their homes, communities facing unimaginable hardship, and the brave first responders. Who risked their lives to protect others. For many of us, including myself, this isn't just a news story, it's personal. Southern California is my home and home to many of our employees partners, friends and loved ones. We stand in solidarity with everyone affected and we're committed to supporting recovery efforts in every way we can. While the fires have been contained, we know the road to recovery will be long. Our thoughts remain with those who are grieving, rebuilding, and finding the strength to move forward.

We are here with you today and for the journey ahead. Moving on to our earnings. We're excited to share the highlights of what has been another landmark year for an NCM the cinema industry as a whole. This year's performance demonstrated the resilience of cinema advertising and the ongoing appeal of theatrical experiences for moviegoers. Let's dive into the details. The fourth quarter of twenty twenty four was a great success for the box office. Exceeding most industry expectations. The total box office for the quarter generated marking a 26% increase year over year. This success was driven by diverse slate of films, from massive tenfold releases to breakout hits.

Wicked Part one generated $433,000,000 in the quarter shattered records for a November release.

Disney's Moana two follows closely behind with $4.00 $4,000,000 and cemented itself as a key player in the studio's animated film library. Appealing to audiences both young and old. Other highlights included Gladiator two, Sonic the Hedgehog three and Mufasa the Lion King which brought in nearly $450,000,000 combined. Thanksgiving weekend twenty four was an especially historic moment for the domestic box office. The industry brought in $420,000,000 over the Thanksgiving weekend breaking the previous all time record of $315,000,000 set in 2018. December 24 was also exceptionally strong featuring a wave of highly anticipated films driving the fifth highest grossing month since 2019. Looking at the year as a whole, the total domestic box offers for 2024 reached $8,600,000,000 dollars driven by a robust second half While the first half of twenty twenty four was impacted by the residual effects of 2023 industry strikes, the second half recovery underscored moviegoers enduring passion for the cinema. Culminating in the fourth quarter. Notably, approximately 80 additional movies were released that drew meaningful attendance on top of the planned slate. Keeping theaters buzzing with a diverse range of content. Inside Out two was the highest grossing movie in 2020 marking the first time that an animated movie has been crowned the highest grossing film of the year since Finding Dory became the highest grossing movie of 2016.

Additionally, Deadpool and Wolverine the second highest grossing film of '24, had the sixth biggest domestic opening of all time. Among any film and broke the record for the highest grossing R rated film domestically. The strength of our core audience which is predominantly made of Gen Z and Millennials continues to be a key driver of our success. These groups accounted for 69% of our total viewer in the fourth quarter, cumulatively reaching over 43,000,000 moviegoers. Gen Z in particular represents 38% of our maintaining a strong 6.6 weekly rating throughout the quarter.

Our reach with this young highly sought after audience compares favorably to sports programming. For example, the recent Super Bowl drew an audience with a median age of 48 with Gen Z comprising just 12% of viewers.

Meanwhile, NCM's audience has a median age of 30 and among the coveted 18 to 34 year old demographic, 57,000,000 individuals attended NCM Theaters. Averaging a 6.1 weekly rating in the fourth quarter. This demographic remains critical for advertisers. And we're proud to have captured such a significant share of their attention.

In fact, seven of the top 10 event programs among 18 to 34 year olds in 2024 were theatrical releases within the NCM network. The other three were NFL football games.

As we've discussed in prior quarters, we see a continued shift in how advertisers allocate their spending. Increasingly brands are moving away from saturated streaming and video platforms and turning to cinema, which offers broader reach and greater engagement. Advertisers realize that platforms like NCM deliver a unique and powerful opportunity to connect with audiences In the fourth quarter, we welcomed 25 new advertisers. Who launched major cinema campaigns for the first time since the pandemic. These brands are drawn to NCM for our ability to deliver unmatched audience engagement tied to culturally relevant content. And for our proven track record of driving measurable results, including in store traffic and online sales. Now on to our results.

The fourth quarter marked the fifth consecutive quarter where our results surpassed our expectations reflecting our strategic focus on advertising growth, as the box office continues its momentum. For the fourth quarter of twenty twenty four, NCM reported revenue of $86,300,000 which slightly exceeded our revenue guide of $82,000,000 to $86,000,000 Adjusted OIBDA was $35,000,000 well surpassing our guidance range of 28 to $30,000,000 Approximately 51% of the fourth quarter's national on screen revenue was attributed to the scatter market as advertisers continue to demonstrate interest in closer to campaign real time solutions. During the fourth quarter, NCM partnered with 84 unique advertisers with retailer merging as the top advertising category for the quarter. We also saw significant growth from wireless and insurance advertisers as well as strong performance in the travel and leisure sectors. Our fourth quarter attendance of 101,000,000 attendees was buoyed by new titles in the movie slate. Led by Wicked Part one, Moana two and The Wild Robot. For the full year, NCM results were approximately in line with the domestic box office specifically NCM reported full year 2024 revenue of $240,800,000 compared to $259,800,000 in 2023 and adjusted OIBDA of 45,700,000.0 compared to $52,700,000 Despite the industry wide headwinds in the first half of the year, our total 24 attendance were 390,700,000.0 primarily driven by the open performance of key titles, including Inside Out two, Wicked Part one, and Deadpool and Wolverine.

Our platinum advertising product continues to be a key growth driver Sales have increased significantly for this top tier inventory with revenue more than doubling year over year. This growth was driven primarily by strength across the government wireless, entertainment and dining categories. Fourth quarter platinum revenue was up 28% over the prior year period. And we're encouraged by continued demand through this premium offering by category leading advertisers.

Additionally, our standard attention ratings enable brands to push the boundaries of traditional advertising. NCM brought Xfinity's campaign for Universal's Wicked Part one to life in the first ever U. S. 4DX ad [indiscernible] [indiscernible] Combining dynamic on screen visuals with synchronized movie seats and hyper realistic environmental effects. We ran another Uni campaign with U. S. Cellular who is looking for an out of the box opportunity to help increase local awareness and sales. NCM set up U. S. Cellular branded activation in select theaters connecting the brand with current and prospective customers on a one on one basis. These campaigns highlight how advertisers can creatively engage NCM's audience through a MRSA and experiential solutions. Our industry leading data intelligence platform is playing an increasing role in our success. [indiscernible] continue to leverage NCMx to create measurable impact and value for our advertising partners. Offering strategic audience insights, performance attribution, continued engagement and cross channel reach. In the fourth quarter, NCM successfully delivered on key performance indicators for major retail advertisers. Driving thousands of incremental visits to brands featured on our screens. On average, these brands saw a 47% lift in retail foot traffic thanks to the power of NCM MovieGoers.

Nearly half of our sales revenue is now supported by NCMx initiatives As advertisers continue to leverage these advanced measurement tools, to optimize their campaigns and maximize ROI. As we look to 2025 as a whole, we're encouraged by the continuation of the momentum we saw in the fourth quarter. Both within our business and across the cinema industry. This said, we expect some near term variability in the first half For the first quarter, we're expecting softer performance compared with the prior year driven by a weaker slate and consequently a slight decline in attendance year over year.

While the advertising market is seasonally slower in the fourth quarter, we are also seeing headwinds from reductions in government spending and ongoing tariff uncertainty. Leading advertisers in certain categories to delay spending to later in the year. Ronnie will provide further detail on these factors. Despite these near term headwinds, we are encouraged by the strong sales pacing we're already seeing for the second quarter. Signaling positive momentum for the remainder of the year. Our focus remains on innovation and growth. As we continue to invest in our client solutions. Including programmatic and self serve, which we expect to continue to grow in revenue in the coming years. With that, will turn the call over to Ronny to provide you with more details on our operating results and future outlook.

Thank you, Tom, and good afternoon, everyone.

As Tom noted, the fourth quarter marked the fifth consecutive quarter where the company's results surpassed our expectations. With both revenue and adjusted OIBDA exceeding our guidance. Despite a challenging advertising climate, due to an unfavorable mix of harder to monetize G and PG [indiscernible] and an anticipated addition to the film slate we continue to demonstrate strong execution as we focus on the monetization of our inventory [indiscernible] disciplined management of our business. TCM LLC total revenue for the fourth quarter was $86,300,000 which exceeded our revenue guidance $82,000,000 to $86,000,000 and is compared to the prior year's revenue of $90,900,000 National advertising revenue decreased to $69,200,000 compared to $71,900,000 in the fourth quarter of twenty driven by a 22% decrease in utilization while pricing remained Local and regional advertising Driven by reduced contract sizes across regional and local business Total revenue for the quarter decreased 5% year over year. Primarily due to the dynamics we explained when we provided guidance last quarter. The unusually high mix of harder to monetize and PG rated movies was especially impactful in December. When advertising demand is the highest Additionally, the prior year's success of Taylor Swift, The Tour concert film in October 2023 presented a challenging year over year comparison and the window between Thanksgiving and Christmas a period that is particularly popular for advertisers, was one of the shortest we've seen.

The shortening holiday season coupled with the election which caused advertisers to delay ad spend, ultimately impacted our top line. Importantly, we see these trends as Temporary. With audience mix expected to normalize and a strong film slate expected in 2025, Additionally, we are especially given the sluggish start to the quarter due to the box offices under performance in October. In particular, our team continued to expand our scattered participation which increased to 45% of the mix versus the same quarter last year, of 29%. Mitigating the soft upfront market. Turning to our expenses. Fourth quarter operating compared to $70,400,000 in the prior year primarily driven by onetime expenses related to our Chapter 11 restructuring. Additionally, increased attendance in the fourth quarter resulted in higher exhibitor which were fully offset by lower personnel and overhead expenses from cost savings Excluding one time items, depreciation amortization and non cash share based compensation our adjusted operating expenses were Cash charges and one time items was 35,000,000 compared to 39,800,000.0 in the prior year. The variation in year over year results Well, that's primarily driven by the unfavorable impact from harder to monetize G and PG rated movies in the absence of Taylor Swift concert film from last year.

As previously mentioned. That said, our adjusted OIBDA result well exceeded our guidance range of $28,000,000 to 30,000,000 The outperformance was driven by lower than expected theater access fees in our successful cost savings initiatives. Total free cash flow for the quarter as defined by cash flow from operations less capital expenditures, was $28,100,000 which represented an adjusted OIBDA to free cash flow conversion rate 80%. Turning to the full year. In 2024, NCM LLC generated $240,800,000 in total revenue. Compared to $259,800,000 in 2023. These results were largely driven by lower attendance during the which ultimately resulted in higher revenue per attendee up 4% versus the prior year. National advertising revenue was 188,000,000 the year. Compared to 198,100,000.0 in 2023. Driven primarily by a weaker movie slate in the first half of twenty twenty four due to the writer and actor strikes in the second half of twenty twenty three. Local and regional advertising $39,100,000 in 2024, compared to $51,100,000 in 2023. Driven by decrease in contract activity from small businesses. Which adopted a more cautious approach to advertising Deming, Fluent beverage revenue total advertising revenue was $227,100,000 which was down 6% compared to the same period [indiscernible] while attendance declined 11% year over year.

Average revenue derived from the ESA parties beverage agreement decreased from $18,600,000 In the prior year, it was $13,700,000 The decrease was due to determination of the Regal EFA in July of twenty twenty three and the coinciding discontinuation of their beverage revenue. Combined with a decrease in the remaining EFA parties Turning to our expenses. For full year 2024, operating expenses were $260,300,000 down from $440,700,000 in the prior year. Driven by the absence of one time expenses related to our Chapter 11 restructuring. Including onetime items, depreciation, amortization and non cash share based compensation, our adjusted operating expenses for 2024 were $195,100,000 down 6% year over year from $207,100,000 The reduction in adjusted operating expenses was primarily due to a decrease in exhibitor fees attributable to an 11% decrease in network attendance coupled with decreases in SG and A expenses. Full year 2024 adjusted OIBDA excluding non cash charges, and one time items, was $45,700,000 compared to $52,700,000 in 2023. Driven by the attendance loss and partially mitigated by strong scatter market performance and lower operating costs. Additionally, total free cash flow for the year of $54,500,000 significantly outperformed full year 2023 levels of negative 48,800,000.0 due to the absence of restructuring expenses, Turning to our consolidated balance sheet.

At the end of the fourth quarter, the company had $78,200,000 of cash cash equivalents restricted cash and marketable securities and total debt of 10,000,000 which was flat year over year. Notably, on January 24, 2025, we closed on a new revolving facility with U. S. Bank a revolving facility reduced the cost of debt by over 200 basis points and our annual interest expense by 1,000,000 Importantly, the facility is a cash flow based credit facility versus an asset base facility. [indiscernible] in our business and our ability to generate consistent cash flows. Upon closing of the new facility with U. S. Bank, we repaid the entirety of our outstanding debt with CIT. Meaning that as of today, we have no outstanding long term To provide an update of our $100,000,000 share repurchase as of 12/26/2024, we have repurchased 2,500,000.0 shares [indiscernible] $13,400,000 at an average share price of $5.28 as we continue to focus on returning value to our shareholders. While we plan to continue to opportunistically repurchase at prevailing market prices through April 2027. We are also focused on strategically investing National in growing our advertising network with new innovations and self serve. Turning to our outlook.

As we shared earlier, we are excited about the slate for 2025. And look forward to the continued box office momentum. While the first quarter's range is expected to be slightly softer, than the same period last year, leading to a slight year over year decline in attendance We see this as a temporary dynamic in what we expect to shape up to be a strong year overall. With this in mind, we expect first quarter revenue which falls within a seasonally slower advertising period, to be between $34,000,000 and $36,000,000 This not only reflects the expected reduction in impressions but also recent policy shift relating to federal government spending, and tariffs that have in certain cases, delayed advertising spend to subsequent quarters within the year. As a result, we expect adjusted OIBDA for the first quarter of twenty twenty five to be between negative $9,500,000 and negative $7,500,000 In addition to the revenue impacts already discussed, the guidance reflects planned investments in sales and operations coupled with one time expenses that were not incurred [indiscernible] That said, we do not see first quarter revenue and adjusted order book being indicative of our full year results. Looking ahead, we are encouraged by the strength of our second quarter pipeline.

Which is currently pacing well ahead of last year. With an improving content lineup, [indiscernible] and the continued expansion of our client solutions we are confident in our ability to drive strong results as the year progresses. But that said, I would like to provide some additional context on our expectations for 2025. As we continue to position NCM for long term we expect our annual SG and A expenses to increase by a high single digit percentage in 2025. This increase reflects a deliberate and strategic investment in key areas that we expect will drive sustained growth. Primarily expanding our sales team, enhancing targeted marketing efforts and strengthening our operational infrastructure to support future revenue generation. Additionally, we plan to increase our annual capital expenditures by $2,000,000 to $3,000,000 which will mostly be one time with a majority of that related to delayed investment originally planned in 2024 and the remainder focused on upgrading our IT systems, sales technology and research tools. These investments are highly targeted to improve scalability, and ensure we remain well positioned to capitalize on future opportunity. Importantly, we are making these investments and confidence ensuring they generate meaningful value for both advertisers and our shareholders.

Overall, we continue to expect 2025 to be another robust year for Cinema. There are many films to be excited about as we look forward to 2025. Both sequels and original content such as Avatar, Fire and Ash, Wicked Part two Snow White, Minecraft, [indiscernible] Superman, The Fantastic Four First Ups, and How to Train Your Dragon. NCM holds a distinctive advantage with its strong connection to highly valuable audiences and we are confident that advertisers will continue to rely on NCM and the premium audiences We deliver as the box office gains momentum in 2025 and beyond. We will be providing more detail on what we expect for 2025 at our upcoming Investor Day in March. Operator, please open the line for questions. Thank you. Will now begin the question and answer session. And the first question will come from Patrick Scholl with Barrington Research. Please go ahead.

Hi. Thanks for taking the question. Was wondering if you could provide a little bit more detail on what you're expecting on how sort of temporary you expect you see these advertising headwinds as being specifically if you could talk a little bit about what you're seeing in the second half of the year especially since that was kind of the stronger [indiscernible] Hey, Patrick, it's Tom. I think what I would would say is that the pacing in the second quarter is very encouraging. Compared to last year. First quarter is always kind of an odd quarter to forecast. And I think some of the exogenous things out there like the tariffs and policy shifts affected Some of the commitments But as I look at Q2, which is an important quarter and typically significantly larger than Q1, I'm looking at the pacing for Q2, which looks very good.

Compared to the prior year.

I can't really get into the second half, yes. Really at this point. But we're very encouraged by what's going on in Q2 right now.

Okay. You talked about some of the KPI based ad sales. I'm just wondering how that has supported advertiser retention realizing it's pretty early it's earlier in that process, but advertiser retention and efforts to increase the client base. What I can say in general is within our NCMx team that supports a lot of the outcome based advertising commitments Basically half of our business is supported through NCMx whether it's through a KPI or some other measurement, So it's pretty much a significant piece of what we're doing every day. So we're really encouraged by that. And we've put a lot of money and effort into it. So we're really happy with the attention we're getting from our clients.

Okay. And then as the last question I had, you talked about bringing back more of the advertisers that hadn't been spending since COVID. Was kind of curious what sort of share of like your national advertisers are maybe still on the sidelines on cinema advertising? Casey, what percent of them? What was the question again? Sorry.

The The number of advertisers you had pre pandemic, how many of them have yet to sort of return? I think we need to calculate that for you.

I don't have that off the the top of our head, but we can get it to you In short order.

Our next question will come from Mike Hickey with The Benchmark Company. Please go ahead. Hey, Tom, Ronnie, thanks for taking our question. An unexpected Q4 and 2024, especially with the headwinds on attendance. I guess that's segues Tom, it looks like $25,000,000 and $26,000,000 film volume is [indiscernible] Obviously, the expectation here is we should continue to see a strong recovery in attendance. But I guess the question is what are your expectations for attendance growth in 2025, 2026? Is that sort of in line with what the market is thinking? And is higher attendance the primary driver of your revenue growth? Or do you see more of an opportunity today in better monetizing your existing ad inventory?

I would say attendance is always the number one driver.

And I think the quality of the attendance is probably the second driver in terms of the demographic The more it's geared towards PG-thirteen, the more we can monetize it. But I think as I look at all of the forecast for 2025 and 2026, And they're actually relatively uniform across the whole base of forecasters. I'm feeling pretty much in sync with most of the big analysts and most of the big forecasters in terms of how '25 and particularly '26 So I think truthfully, this is an important year for the industry. It's the first real year without a strike and post COVID So we're anxious to see how the movies perform and how many releases come out this year and next year. But we have a very focused sales team talking about the year all the way out through the end of this year, And the response we've gotten from advertisers in looking at the slate and looking at all the data around it is encouraging. [indiscernible] mean, I guess how is advertiser sentiment for your medium, Tom, sort of compared prior year. Obviously, we knew there was some lack of product given the Hollywood strikes. And I think there was Box is better than we thought.

We thought it was going to be down 10%, did better than we thought, but obviously we weren't expecting growth. We're expecting growth this year. So slate is improving. The The demo you have is Obviously, very attractive, I would think, for media buyers. The attribution work you're doing certainly something you never had before and it looks like you're getting good feedback. On the product side, programmatic, self serve, obviously those are sort of industry standards and you're in the right direction there. So I guess how is sentiment today given all the improvements in the macro and in your business? And when do you think that will sort of translate into higher media buys?

I think the sentiment is really good.

Right now, when you think about all the negative sentiment we had to deal with for the past several years, even in the first half of last year, I think we're finally in a state where there shouldn't be any surprises from an industry point of view, So I think the advertising side of the story is actually looking really good. And for the first time, we can really communicate with them looking at a schedule that's unencumbered by any of the crazy things that have impacted our industry. And I think we're really lined up nicely with all of the capabilities that we've built over the last couple of years. Particularly on the data side, So we're really encouraged. Every now and again, you're going to have situations where a certain industry and the case of government spending creates a little bit of a hiccup on our forecasting, but I don't think anyone could have predicted that. In Q1. As we look to Q2 and beyond, really optimistic about how the industry is going to be performing against the Ox Office.

Is that higher advertisers sentiment, Tom, does that sort of put you in a better position this year in terms of driving maybe some growth in the upfront season. I know last year That was certainly not the case. Scatter was a larger factor. It seemed like that was more secular, but given all the improvement in the market in your business, do you think you have a better shot at driving higher upfront sales? I think we'll do as well. Proportionally in the upfronts given that our industry is doing really compared to linear television. And broadcast television. I think the question is, is how are people buying versus how they used to buy? I do think we'll have a better upfront than we had last year.

But I think as you look at it, there's still an unusual mix between scatter and upfront where people are buying closer and closer. To the actual broadcast date. But remember, but you're right, last year when we were doing the upfront, there were still some uncertain theatrical business. We're still coming off the strike So this next opportunity will be one, probably the cleanest upfront we've had since Nice. I know premium obviously has been a very hot area of the box office and think you've been sort of trying to corner that market little bit Tom through maybe IMAX and PLS. Just sort of what are you seeing in terms of advertiser demand to get on the premium screens And how big of a factor can that be for you in 2025? Is we see Everybody wants to be on those premiums Everyone wants to be on those premium screens and that's always topic of discussion. And as that's married to our platinum inventory in particular, it's where the biggest advertisers want to go first. So whenever we're working either with a new advertiser or someone that's particularly interesting piece of creative, They're always focused on platinum and on these large screen formats.

So I think as that trend continues, which it seems to be at all the major exhibitors in terms of their investment plans, and their growth. Is only going to benefit us and help us from an advertiser interest point of view. Last question from us. Tom, on the moving away from National looking at the local National piece of your business. Obviously, pre pandemic, it had pretty good scale. And I think you've gone through here a restructuring process. Just what are you seeing, I guess, from your local and regional teams, the excitement there to sort of scale and grow the business in 2025 and 2026?

So historically, local pre COVID was a really significant part of our business. During the COVID period and during even the recovery period, we as we cut back on cost, local, I think, was impacted pretty significantly. Given what a individual sales sort of kind of business that is. We've reinvested in our sales team locally and allocated more sources to them. Resources to them. So we're really optimistic that local is going to have a nice comeback in 2025 and 2026.

Thank you, guys.

You're welcome.

This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Tom Lindzinski for any closing remarks. Please go ahead, sir.

Okay. Thank you for your questions. Everyone, and your support of National Cine Media. With our unmatched scale, NCM has maintained its position as a top player in this premium video advertising space. This past year has proven that movies are thriving once again and MCM has consistently connected to advertisers with high value audiences. Attracting both new and loyal brands to our platform every quarter. Further, we believe NCM is well positioned for the future with strong growth catalysts a fortified balance sheet, positive cash flow and an opportunistic share repurchase program. As we look forward to 2025, we are energized by our momentum and eagerly anticipate the opportunities that wait us in this year ahead. So as a final reminder, NCM will be hosting its twenty twenty five Investor Day in New York City Thursday, March 13, 03:00. Excited for you to hear more about our strategy, innovation, and performance from myself, Brownie and other members of our talent management team. So finally, I want to thank our NCM team as always for their hard work and dedication and thank you to our shareholders for their support as well. See you at the movies.

The conference is now concluded.

Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect. [indiscernible]