Sempra Price & Performance (SRE)

Good morning and welcome to Semper's Sempra quarter twenty twenty four earnings call.

A live webcast of this teleconference and slide presentation are available on our Web Slide under our Events and Presentations section. We have several members of our management team with us today, including Jeff Martin, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Karen Cedric, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Justin Bird, Executive Vice President and Chief Executive Officer of Sempra Infrastructure Alan Nye, Chief Executive Officer of Encore Don Clevinger, Chief Financial Officer of Encore Carolyn Winn, Chief Executive Officer of SDG and E Peter Wall, Senior Vice President, Controller and Chief Accounting Officer and other members of our senior management team. Before starting, I'd like to remind everyone that we'll be [indiscernible] of 1995 Actual results may differ materially from those projected in any forward looking statement we make today the factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially discussed in the company's most recent 10 ks filed with the SEC Earnings per common share amounts in our presentation are shown on a diluted basis and we'll be discussing certain non GAAP financial measures. Please refer to the presentation slides that accompany this call for a reconciliation to GAAP measures. We also encourage you to review our 10 ks for the year ended December 31, 2024, I'd also like to mention in forward looking statements, contained in this presentation speak only of today, February 25, 2025, it's important to note that the company does not assume any obligation to update or revise any of these forward looking statements in the future.

With that, please turn to Slide five and let me hand the call over to Jeff. Thank you, Glenn, and thank you all for joining us today. This year, as we report our Q4 and full year financial results, we've organized our materials to lay out a clear roadmap for our company to deliver a decisive decade of growth In part, that's why we took the time over the last several months to reach out to investors and the research community to get new ideas and suggestions on how to make today's call as informative as possible.

Anne, adjusted our list of presenters, so you get to hear directly from a broader group of executives. In terms of our agenda, I'll start by reviewing our accomplishments in 2024, and provide an overview of our corporate strategy. Then we'll move to the leaders of our three business segments where each will discuss recent developments and operational initiatives in their businesses as well as their respective capital plans. Afterwards, Carol will follow with a presentation on our Q4 and full year financial results and the details surrounding our new five year capital plan. Then at the end, I'll rejoin you to make some closing remarks. Turning to our 2024 financial results, we delivered adjusted EPS of $4.65 which is just below the midpoint of our guidance range. Later in today's call, Karen will walk through the key drivers behind those results. Turning to 2025 guidance, we've adjusted our financial forecast to account for a series of changes. These include the final decision in our California rate cases, as well as updated assumptions relating to interest rates commodity prices and O and M costs. Another key assumption in our 2025 guidance has to do with Encore filed its next base rate review.

As you know, Texas is enjoying strong economic and population growth, Some estimates project Texas to have the largest population in The United States by 02/1945. From July 2023 to July 2024, Texas added over 500,000 new residents. The most of any state in the nation New business continues to move to the state as well and as the economy expands to the end of the decade, electricity demand is expected to nearly double With this backdrop, there's a significant need for new infrastructure, which creates opportunity for Encore to increase its capital investments in the state. That's why Oncor is preparing to file a comprehensive base rate review later this year Rather than waiting until 2027, Alan will go into more detail, but if the team elects to file a base rate review, we we have assumed in our plan, we believe this will strengthen the company's financial position as it looks to make critical investments necessary to support expected growth in energy demand. Taking all these factors into account, we're revising our full year 2025 EPS guidance range to $4.3 to $4.7 Our revised 2025 guidance falls below the prior expectations set for our company.

That said, I'm confident that we're making the right decisions for the business as 2025 will form a new foundation for our future growth In addition, we're announcing our full year 2026 EPS guidance range of $4.8 to $5.3 which represents roughly a 12% growth rate from the midpoint of our updated 2025 guidance. Strong growth from 2026 in the future years. In addition to the referenced year over year growth, we're seeing remarkable growth in our expected earnings from Sempra Texas, which supports raising our projected long term EPS growth rate to 7% to 9% Going forward, we'll update our estimated long term growth rate on our year end calls in February at the same time that we announced our updated capital plans. Finally, in keeping with our commitment to provide investors with a competitive total return, we're also pleased to announce that Semper's Board of Directors approved increase in the company's annualized dividend for the fifteenth consecutive year to $2.58 per share. Please turn to the next slide where I'll walk through our recent accomplishments. In 2024, we made important progress on our five year capital plan by deploying nearly $10,000,000,000 of capital across our three business lines, while also delivering solid financial results with 2024 adjusted earnings of roughly $3,000,000,000 In terms of other accomplishments, we ended the year with utility rate base of $56,000,000,000 It's also important to note that we're announcing a new record capital plan of $56,000,000,000 for 2025 to 2029, which represents a 16% increase over the prior plan.

With over half of our new capital driven by opportunities at Encore, where Alan and his team are seeing remarkable customer growth and taken together with California, 90% of the new capital plan is dedicated to our core strategy investing in regulated utilities with constructive regulation. In California, SDG and E and SoCalGas received a final decision on their twenty twenty four general rate cases which support critical new investments in safety, reliability, and affordable customer service. Meanwhile, in Texas, you'll recall that the PUCT approved Encore's nearly $3,000,000,000 system resiliency plan, highlighting the constructive nature of that jurisdiction and Encore's ability to work collaboratively with key stakeholders to advance good public policy Encore has already begun making investments in accordance with the SRP and there are a significant number of near term growth opportunities that Alan will be discussing momentarily. In addition, Alan will outline more clearly what investments fall within his new $36,000,000,000 capital plan as well as providing very important visibility to other incremental investments that are expected to be added to his twenty twenty five to twenty twenty nine plan. And new investments that are estimated for the 02/1930 to 02/1934 timeframe. And finally, at Semper Infrastructure 2024, was an important year in terms of execution, As we continue to advance construction across a series of large scale infrastructure projects, including most notably ICA LNG Phase one and Port Arthur LNG Phase one.

Please turn to the next slide. Couple of takeaways here. Utility capital investments have grown steadily at approximately 4% over the last decade. However, with economic expansion coming out of COVID, re shoring of industry and record levels of investment, in cloud computing, artificial intelligence and data centers we're seeing a notable uptick in energy demand. That's why utilities all across the country are quickly ramping up investment to build new energy infrastructure that supports growing energy demand. With over $200,000,000,000 of anticipated sector in 2025 alone, we certainly believe we're in the early innings of a new super cycle for the sector. On a relative basis, our 16% year over year increase in our five year capital plan compares favorably to the trend shown here. In part Semper is well positioned in the right markets, with the right corporate strategy to create a lot of value in the coming years. Please turn to the next slide.

Here, Semper's core strategy centers on making disciplined investments in good businesses where we can earn quality returns while building scale advantages in large economic markets with favorable regulation. Please turn to the next slide. At Semper, we have narrowed our participation in the energy value chain with the goal of reducing the impact of commodity, environmental and credit risk. By concentrating on transmission and distribution investment, it also improves our line of sight to future growth and helps us produce high quality recurring cash flows from regulated utilities while also investing in long term contracted assets with investment grade counterparties in our infrastructure platform. Please turn to the next slide. To be clear, our corporate strategy is designed to build significant scale into our business for the benefit of customers, and shareholders. To do that, we're launching a new record $56,000,000,000 capital plan that targets compound annual rate based growth of 10%. Note too that our expectations of future growth are expanding. Particularly in the state of Texas. That's why we're raising our long term EPS growth estimates to 7% to 9%. Please turn to the next slide where Alan will walk you through a business update at Encore.

Thank you, Jeff. We had a successful year at Encore headlined by several key accomplishments. We deployed approximately $4,700,000,000 a new record and grew our rate base by approximately 15%. We continue to believe in the Texas Sempra and do not see it slowing down anytime soon. As Jeff mentioned, we are contemplating filing a comprehensive base rate review with the PUCT this year. As you may recall, our last base rate review was approved in 2023 based on a 2021 historic test year. Market conditions have certainly changed, with higher interest rates, and insurance premiums, and inflationary pressure to name a few. Moving to our operational performance. In 2024, Encore built, rebuilt or upgraded 4,300 miles of T and D lines, increased our premise count by approximately 77,000 set company records for new and active transmission interconnection requests, and witnessed 4% growth in electricity volumes delivered. Encore was also recognized by EEI with the Emergency Response Award for our May 2024 storm response, the second worst storm in Encore's history, further demonstrating our commitment to restoring power after extreme weather events as soon as safely possible To come full circle, the main takeaway is that Encore had an excellent year.

And I'll speak next about the long term growth we are seeing. Please turn to the next slide. As we've highlighted throughout the year, new points of interconnection requests grew 27% in 2020 this is an important metric because it serves as a strong leading indicator of customers looking to connect to Encore system. And simultaneously helps replenish the existing queue of active requests.

Both of which represent future investment opportunities. The increase in interconnection interest continues to emerge primarily from large C and I customers. Which span multiple diverse industries located across our service territory. As of 12/31/2024, the total amount of commercial and industrial loads seeking transmission interconnection equaled 137 gigawatts an approximately 250% increase from 2023. I'd also like to note that Encore is already in possession of over $2,000,000,000 of collateral held under signed agreements split approximately even between about a 10x increase since 2018. This collateral protects ratepayers and us, from the risk of costs being incurred for a project that is subsequently abandoned. Executed agreements are one of the ways we evaluate the probability of load increases into our capital planning process And this figure indicates these are serious customers with high intentions of developing their projects. Additionally, we provide ERCOT with a high confidence projection for C and I loads seeking interconnection to our transmission system. Last year, we provided a projection through 2,030 of 25 gigawatts.

This year, based on the number of customers who have taken concrete steps towards an interconnection agreement, we have increased our high confidence projection to 29 gigawatts through 2,031. That amount combined with the customers who have already signed interconnection agreements, could potentially increase our 2,031 peak load by approximately 36 gigawatts from C and I transmission customers alone. To put that into context, today's peak load for our whole system is 31 gigawatts. Please turn to the next slide. Today, we're announcing another record five year capital plan totaling $36,000,000,000 an increase of 50% over the five year plan we announced last February. Encore's investments over 2025 through 2029 are expected to support diverse growth across our service territory as the region continues to, exhibit strong annual premise growth in the 2% range, receive a growing number of interconnection requests from large C and I customers while remaining a highly desired destination for both business and residential customers to the state. OnCourse territory is vast. Our distribution service territory is over 54,000 square miles, roughly the size of the whole state of New York. And our growth is not concentrated in any one area but spread out across the DFW Metroplex, West Texas, and along the I-thirty 5 corridor.

We're continuing to see strong growth in residential premises, that exceeds the historical national average. As well as significant new growth in the large C and I space.

Examining the components of our new $36,000,000,000 capital plan, the increases arise from the following items. Nearly $3,000,000,000 for the SRP, dollars 2,000,000,000 for the Brownfield local common projects for the Permian Basin Reliability Plan, dollars 1,000,000,000 for transmission projects for the Delaware Basin load integration plan and West Texas three forty five kV infrastructure plan. Dollars 2,000,000,000 for interconnection of generation and large C and I customers with executed agreements, and $4,000,000,000 for distribution upgrades and other capital needs. We're excited by the prospect that more than 60% of our capital presented today is allocated towards transmission projects that will support the growing energy needs of the state of Texas as these projects tend to be substantial with cost and benefits shared with all ratepayers. Our distribution investments, which we recover through the DCRF, will also continue at a robust pace and comprise another 27% of the capital plan. Demonstrating the breadth and diversity of growth throughout our service territory. The SRP which we've highlighted previously, also accounts for $3,000,000,000 and that capital is recovered more favorably than our other investments. These investments are critical because they support a safer, Smarter more resilient electric grid to help enable continued development across the state of Texas.

Notably, Encore's $36,000,000,000 CapEx plan only includes expected spend for major transmission projects for which we have obtained all regulatory approvals. For example, in the Permian Basin Reliability Plan, approximately $2,000,000,000 has been included for brownfield projects that require no further approvals. Additionally, with regard to customers seeking interconnection at the transmission level, like data centers, Our plan only includes those projects for which customers have executed an agreement with us. Please turn to the next slide. As a result, Encore has clear line of sight to meaningful projects that could amount to an additional $12,000,000,000 over the course of 2025 to 2029, that are outside of our base plan. These projects include potential updates to our SRP in 2028 and 2029. Local projects of the Permian Basin Reliability Plan requiring regulatory approvals, projects in the import path of the Permian Basin Reliability Plan.

Additional transmission POIs such as data centers that have not yet signed agreements with us and projects arising from ERCOT's 765KV Strategic Transmission Expansion Plan or STEP among other things. Regarding the Permian Basin Reliability Plan, ERCOT and the PUCT are still evaluating the optimal voltage level for the import pathways as part of the import path phase. We anticipate further determination to be made in the second quarter of this year. That will provide clarity on the need and timing of additional transmission investment. With targeted in service dates of 02/1930 and beyond, we anticipate these potential investments to occur in the back end of our current five year plan and extending into the next decade.

Are excited to have begun needed investments to support grid resiliency and we understand this is not a one off event.

As such, we anticipate filing an update to our current SRP in 2027 with additional measures to continue the important investments around grid hardening, situational awareness, and cyber and physical security of our system. ERCOT has laid out a vision for the development of a modern statewide EHV superhighway. [indiscernible] released last month, ERCOT indicated that the cost between an EHV solution and a traditional three forty five kV solution are likely to be very similar. But the EHV solution would provide a number of superior benefits. We expect more guidance from the PUCT in the first half of this year. Under either solution, Encore expects to build a significant amount of the needed transmission. Many of these projects I am discussing today continue past the current five year plan.

When we look farther out, we believe our growth continues well into the next decade. If current growth trends continue, we estimate investment in our system requiring 55 to $75,000,000,000 from 02/1930 to 02/1934, In other words, the Texas Sempra doesn't appear to be stopping anytime soon. As we execute on our current plan, and prepare for potentially higher levels of capital spending, I'll speak to how we've prepared to support this growth. Please turn to the next slide. For years now, Encore has been taking deliberate steps to secure our future growth potential. Over the past five years, and inventory stock to help ensure materials are available when and where they are needed. We've also increased our talent pool to bring new knowledge, skill sets, and abilities to our workforce. While deploying modern technologies and exercising prudence, in increasing our headcount so that we can efficiently grow our business. As we enhance our resources, we are also achieving improved safety metrics. Which is a testament to our continued focus on operational excellence. Please turn to the next slide and I'll hand the call over to Karen. Thank you, Alan. Start by providing an update on Semper California's 2024 accomplishments and five year capital plan.

Then since we've received a lot of outreach from the investment community, on how the state limits investor exposure to wildfire risk, I want to reserve time to provide an update on that as well. Starting with 2024 accomplishments, we saw a number of material developments at our California utilities. First and foremost, we received a final decision in our general rate cases. With the final decision, we're now able to focus our efforts on and continuing to provide customers with safe and reliable energy. And speaking of safety, SDG and E became California's first utility to be awarded with the prestigious Cal OSHA VPP Safety Certification. This designation is the highest safety recognition offered by the nation's largest state run division of Occupational Safety and Health. And the award is reserved [indiscernible] that demonstrate exemplary safety practices, employee engagement and injury prevention measures that exceed standard regulatory requirements. It is also noteworthy to mention that SDG and E was also once again recognized as the best in the West. For electric customer reliability for the nineteenth consecutive year. Another accomplishment we're quite proud of. Operationally, we continue to see growing energy demand and recently the California Energy Commission issued a report projecting 2.8% annual growth in statewide electricity consumption from 2023 through 02/1930.

Which should have favorable impacts to customer affordability by putting downward pressure on rates. In October, SDG and E submitted its PO6 filing with FERC, including a 50 basis point California ISO adder. In December, FERC issued an order finding that SDG and E is not eligible for the ISO ADR. SDG and E believes there is a reasonable basis to appeal this decision. And has already requested a rehearing. At SoCalGas, the CPUC issued a final decision authorizing the Aliso Canyon natural gas storage facility to operate at 68,600,000,000 cubic feet or 80% of the site's capacity representing approximately 11% of the state's overall storage capacity. Ongoing operations will be subject to future CPUC review but we believe this action confirms the valuable role natural gas continues to play in contributing to a stable and affordable California energy grid. Please turn to the next slide.

Semper California's capital plan totals over $22,000,000,000 through 2029. Major areas of investment include our wildfire mitigation, energy storage, and smart meter replacement initiatives. We're also building new transmission lines under FERC's authority, investing in the modernization of the Moreno and Onor Rancho compressor stations and continuing to bolster safety through our Gas Pipeline Safety and Integrity Management Program. As we look into the next decade, we see further opportunities to improve how we deliver our services through innovation and grid modernization efforts focused on safety, reliability, and affordable customer service.

Moreover, additional investments will be needed to support growing energy demand and economic development throughout the state. Please turn to the next slide.

Operationally, Semper California Sempra a track record of effectively mitigating risk and making innovative investments which further our market position as a leader in delivering safe and reliable energy. SDG and E recently scored as the most mature wildfire mitigation program across all international utilities. STG and E's investments in wildfire mitigation have been instrumental in hardening our system based on advanced risk modeling that identifies the most weather sensitive areas Moreover, these advanced technologies also track wildfire risk throughout the year. With an established leadership position in wildfire mitigation and data science, we commonly field questions about programs here in the state. And I thought it'd be helpful to share our company's perspective. In 2019, the state established the Wildfire Fund under AB ten fifty four to support the financial stability of investor owned utilities. When the fund was formed, SDG initially contributed roughly $320,000,000 Since then, SDG and E has contributed just under $13,000,000 annually As of today, SDG and E's total contributions represent roughly 2% of the $21,000,000,000 fund.

SDG and E's lower level of contributions reflect its lower risk profile due to three considerations: the relatively small size of SDG and E service territory the desert like topography that predominates this part of Southern California, and the robust level of prior investments SCG and E has made to materially mitigate wildfire risk Also, it's important to note that SDG and E is not standing still. The company continues to strengthen its capabilities with new investments in wildfire mitigation programs, as well as newly developed technology and data science, that support proactively monitoring and better protection for local communities. This played out during the recent weather events where STG and E encountered substantially similar and in some cases worse red flag conditions and what was experienced in the Los Angeles region.

SDG and E successfully managed its system safely. And the company came through the event safely. Remember too that SDG and E hasn't had a utility caused wildfire if any significance for over seventeen years. Please turn to the next slide where Justin will provide an update on Sempra's [indiscernible] Thanks, Karen.

Geopolitical and market events continue to highlight and strengthen the value proposition of our Sempra infrastructure platform. And we're making the most of the opportunity. We're making substantial progress on our dual basin LNG strategy through the construction of ECA LNG Phase one, Port Arthur LNG Phase one, and the active development of Port Arthur LNG Phase two.

And when ECA and Port Arthur LNG Phase one are up and running, have the ability to deliver natural gas from the Permian and Haynesville basins into our terminals and dispatch LNG into both the Pacific and Atlantic energy markets. And as the CEO, I can tell you this is an exciting time for Sempra Sempra First, we delivered financial results at the high end of our range in 2024 and continue to generate strong distributable cash flow to our owners. Second, construction on EKA LNG Phase one continues to progress and we expect to be on time and on budget also reached COD on our GRO pipeline supporting natural gas supply into EEC LNG. Third, construction on Puerto Rico LNG Phase one, as our EPC contractor and our associated pipeline remain on time and on budget. Lastly, the development of Port Arthur LNG Phase two is an advanced development We already have an HOA with Aramco that includes off take of 5,000,000 tons per annum and a 25% equity interest We have a fixed price EPC agreement with Bechtel and we have interest of well over five MTPA for the rest of the capacity for Phase two. With this in mind, we're pleased to announce we're targeting FID in 2025.

Please turn to the next slide.

At Sempra Infrastructure, we continue to focus on safety, disciplined development and construction, and operational excellence. At Cameron, which is now in its fourth year of full production, the team continues to optimize its operations with the plant reaching a 98% reliability rate in 2024.

During 2024, Cameron loaded 193 cargoes has now reached eight ninety five cargoes since production began in May 2019. At Port Arthur LNG, Phase one, we have 3,600 workers on-site are building out the steel framework for the trains tank construction, above ground and underground piping, marine birth dredging, and have commenced major equipment setting. We continue to target commercial operations for Train one and Train two in 2027 and 2028 respectively. [indiscernible] At Eka LNG Phase one, we're excited that the project has reached 90% completion including engineering, procurement and construction progress. Current work is now focused on pipe testing and insulation electrical instrumentation and pre commissioning activities. Turning to Sempra Infrastructure's updated capital plan, we estimate spending $4,000,000,000 through 2029. As a reminder, per our convention, we only include Sempra's proportionate share of capital of projects that have reached FID.

And to be clear, our plan is narrowly focused on investments in LNG assets with 16,000,000 tons per annum of projected capacity as well as the supporting pipeline infrastructure. In the meantime, our renewable projects such as Cimarron represent a great way to layer in higher return projects with a shorter construction window to take advantage of Semper Infrastructure's excess electric transmission capacity. Overall, our assets have eighteen years which gives us confidence in our ability to continue delivering recurring cash flows and value to our owners in the foreseeable future. Please turn to the next slide.

The development of Port Arthur LNG Phase two increases the value of our SI franchise.

The Brownfield expansion is expected to benefit from scale advantages and continuous construction under Bechtel's leadership.

Furthermore, Phase two will benefit from the common facilities In combination, we believe this translates into a lower cost and lower risk expansion of Phase two.

As I mentioned, we announced an HOA with Aramco for approximately half of the offtake where they'd also participate in 25% of the project equity Additionally, we have well over 5,000,000 tons per annum of interest for the remaining offtake and are confident in our ability to meet our customers' needs. Many of our stakeholders are eager for this project to succeed including ConocoPhillips, as they mentioned in their recent earnings call, Given recent commercial discussions for additional demand the momentum of project development and our continued expectation to receive the DOE non FTA permit We're excited to announce we're targeting a final investment decision later this year pending the execution of definitive commercial agreements, obtaining permits and securing financing, among other factors.

Please turn to the next slide. Over the long run, our strategy is increasingly focused on the expansion of our dual basin LNG strategy which could over time represent up to 90,000,000 tons per annum in total LNG exports, significantly increasing the scope and scale of our business. The timing and ultimate ownership stakes in these projects will depend on market demand, we believe will remain robust through 02/1940.

For context, LNG demand has grown 6% per annum over the last twenty five years and going forward, we estimate that global demand could grow by up to another three fifty million tons per annum through 02/1950 Based on these forecasts and recent capital markets activity in the LNG industry, we believe our infrastructure growth franchise continues to provide compelling value to Sempra's shareholders Sempra. Now please turn to the next slide where Karen will walk through the Sempra financial update. Thanks, Justin.

Earlier today, Semper reported fourth quarter twenty twenty four GAAP earnings of $665,000,000 or $1.04 per share.

This compares to fourth quarter twenty twenty three GAAP earnings of $737,000,000 or $1.16 per share, On an adjusted basis, fourth quarter twenty twenty four earnings were $960,000,000 or $1.5 per share.

This compares to our fourth quarter twenty twenty three earnings of $719,000,000 or $1.13 per share.

Full year 2024 GAAP earnings were $20,000,000,087,000,000,000 dollars or $4.42 per share.

This compares to 2023 GAAP earnings of $3,300,000,000 or $4.79 per share.

On an adjusted basis, full year 2024 earnings were $2,969,000,000 or $4.65 per share. This compares to our previous full year 2023 adjusted earnings of $2,000,000,009.02 $0 or $4.61 per share. Please turn to the next slide. Variances in the full year 2024 adjusted earnings compared to the same period last year can be summarized as follows: At Sempra California, we had $46,000,000 primarily from higher electric transmission margin, higher AFUDC equity higher CPUC based operating margin. And $157,000,000 primarily from higher income tax from flow through items including higher gas tax repair benefits partially offset by higher net interest expense. Turning to Semper Texas, we had $43,000,000 of higher equity earnings primarily from higher invested capital and customer growth. Partially offset by higher interest and operating expenses and lower consumption primarily due to mild weather At Semper Infrastructure, we had $170,000,000 of lower transportation earnings including the cumulative impact of new tariffs going into effect in 2023.

Lower asset and supply optimization and lower volumes for the renewables business. Partially offset by $50,000,000 primarily from lower net interest expense due to higher capitalized interest and higher income tax benefits. At Semper Parent, the $77,000,000 net decrease is primarily due to higher net interest expense lower income tax benefits.

Please turn to the next slide. Now let's turn to our planned investment over the next five years. Driven largely by growth at Sempra Texas, our new record $56,000,000,000 capital plan represents an increase of 16% over the prior year plan. Capital investment will remain overwhelmingly focused on our T and D infrastructure. With over 90% allocated to our regulated utilities. In Texas, the growth is simply remarkable. And on top of that, the regulatory construct continues to improve. With 97% of our investments now being recoverable through efficient tracker mechanisms, which diminish the impact of regulatory lag. At Semper California, SDG and E and SoCalGas are focused on and reliable energy. As a reminder, our Semper infrastructure platform is underpinned by long term U. S. Dollar denominated contracts that mitigate commodity and counterparty risk And our infrastructure business provides a great opportunity to achieve attractive risk adjusted returns and long duration energy infrastructure projects. With the long term tailwinds we've discussed today, you can see there's a consistent pipeline of new opportunities to deploy capital. Which supports increased earnings power for each of our three platforms. Although there is a lot of excitement about our growth opportunities, we remain committed to a disciplined capital allocation process and financing our growth as efficiently as possible.

Please turn to the next slide. One of the key takeaways of our capital plan is that we're projecting total twenty twenty four rate base of $56,000,000,000 to expand to over $91,000,000,000 by 2029. Which amounts to a 10% compounded annual growth rate. Please turn to the next slide to cover our financing plan. As we've highlighted throughout the morning, we have a very large capital plan focused on key investment opportunities with a primary focus on Texas. Our sources and uses calls for a thoughtful mix of investable cash from operations debt and equity issuances capital investments, and capital returns to shareholders. Consistent with past practice, our recurring cash flows provide the majority of funds planned for capital investments. You will recall that in late twenty twenty three, we sold approximately [indiscernible] that settled at the end of last year. We also established our $3,000,000,000 ATM program in November of last year. And sold approximately $270,000,000 in equity under the program in the fourth quarter. The plan presented today is intended to provide strong support for our credit ratings with equity issuances in the front end of the plan and share repurchases on the back end. As Jeff will share later, we've historically grown our earnings faster than the sector which requires a higher level of reinvestment in the business We have remained consistent both our dividend strategy and our commitment to maintaining a strong balance sheet.

Please turn to the next slide. Response to requests from investors for a more fulsome view of Sempra's financing plans, In addition to the prior slide, which is our traditional view, this slide provides more detail into our financing strategy. On capital recycling, as we have demonstrated in the past, we'll evaluate and execute on opportunities at Semper Infrastructure. With a view toward improving our regulated business mix over time. In the future, we anticipate these opportunities could come from a variety of areas such as project equity, joint venture arrangements, asset sales, or further sell downs within the capital structure of Semper Infrastructure Partners other things, What's most important is we're going to remain focused on continuing to provide significant value for shareholders, as we look to fund our robust capital plan in the most efficient manner possible, Finally, we also remain committed to growing our dividend as part of our total shareholder return strategy. And are now in our fifteenth consecutive year of dividend raises. Please turn to the next slide. To wrap up my remarks, let me discuss our 2025 and 2026 guidance.

As Jeff noted earlier, we're revising our 2025 EPS guidance range to $4.3 to $4.7 Our revised range contemplates Oncor submitting for a base review this year. Which impacts their tracker filings while the case is ongoing. While there is a near term earnings headwind this year associated with the filing, we believe it's the right business decision since Encore has an important inflection point in an unprecedented growth cycle, It's also important to note that the financial impact of higher growth at Encore is not fully reflected in the intermediate term due to regulatory lag. However, we know over time that Texas will realize increased benefits of this growth and continue to be a larger and important contributor of Sempra's earnings mix. Beyond the adverse impacts of Encore filing its base rate review, there are other considerations impacting Semper's 2025 guidance. At Semper California, we're negatively impacted by the implementation of the GRC final decision. A 42 basis point decrease in our return on equity determined by the CPUC related to the CTM. As well as the FERC order removing 50 basis points California ISO adder to transmission related ROE. Moving to Sempra Infrastructure, the two main variables factoring into the lower guidance are the delay in ECA LNG Phase one COD until [indiscernible] and recent changes to assumptions for natural gas prices.

This will be partially offset by the optimization of transportation capacity. Finally, at Parent and Other, we've assumed higher interest expense as a result of higher capital investments in 2025 and weighting the capital structure mix, more towards higher rate hybrid security issuances. Please turn to the next slide. Looking to 2026, we're announcing project midpoint earnings of over $3,300,000,000 as ECA LNG Phase one and Someron Wind are expected to reach commercial operations, and we start to see more benefits from Encore's increased investments including the SRP. This results in a projected EPS range of $4.8 to $5.3 based on $660,000,000 shares outstanding. Reflecting minor impacts from equity sales under our financing programs. To reiterate, we delivered solid financial performance in 2024. And we remain extremely excited about the future. Particularly with improved visibility to strong growth in the medium and long term. With our new capital plan presented today, we're raising our projected long term EPS growth rate to 7% to 9%. Please turn to the next slide where Jeff will finish with his closing remarks.

Thank you, Karen. Next, I'd like to briefly summarize key takeaways from today's call.

Over the last three decades, roughly 10% of public companies have been and consistently growing earnings faster than U. S. GDP, That's why I've long believed that EPS growth in our sector and others is loosely correlated to GDP growth. Looking at this slide, you can see this play out over the last five ten and twenty plus year time horizons. US GDP has grown on average at 2% and over those same time periods, the utility sector has grown earnings per share in the range of 3% to 4%.

In contrast, over the same time period, Sempra has been successful in growing its adjusted earnings per share faster than both U. S. GDP and the utility sector's adjusted earnings.

Note too that we're one of the few companies in the utility sector who have both number one, announced a long term EPS growth forecast of 7% to 9% and also number two, delivered that same level of growth over the short and long term.

Have been able to accomplish this by emphasizing the importance of a clear corporate strategy disciplined capital allocation and efficient sourcing of capital while also simplifying and derisking our business and advancing a culture of high performance. To be clear, we have a bullish view of Semper's future growth and we believe we're in the right markets with the right strategy to continue posting strong financial results over the long term. Please turn to the next slide. In 2024, we delivered a total return of 21%, As shown on this slide, Sempra has also delivered a solid total return over the last three years of 45% which compares favorably to the utility sector. Please turn to the next slide. There are two key takeaways here. First, there is a changing business mix within Semper's earnings composition where we're targeting higher exposure to U. S. Investments and specifically regulated utilities. Second, driven by a portfolio of remarkable investment opportunities in Texas our Semper Texas platform is projected to account for over half of our record $56,000,000,000 five year capital plan. Given the plan that Alan outlined today, and the clear line of sight to significant new investments fall outside of Encore's $36,000,000,000 plan, we are taking concrete steps to firmly set our growth strategy around the Texas market.

That includes setting an aspirational goal of producing one half of Semper's earnings from Texas by the end of the decade. Please turn to the next slide.

Earlier, I reviewed the strength of our recent total return. On this slide, you can see that Sempra has been successful in in posting strong total returns that compete favorably to the utility sector and the broader market over a longer time horizon.

That's why from our perspective, the blueprint for long term value creation comes from investing in good businesses, running them well building leadership positions in key economic markets allocating excess cash flow wisely and compounding returns over long periods of time. At this point, I'll pause and we'll take a moment to open up the line to take your questions. Thank you for joining today's call. Before opening, up the Q and A, I want to make a few supplemental remarks.

I know we passed out a lot of new information this morning and the changes in assumptions or cause and impact to your financial models let me start off by apologizing. We have lowered our guidance in 2025 due to a series of issues most notably key changes in our planning assumptions in the last couple of months, First, the California GRC came in late December below our planning assumptions particularly on the front end of the plan.

In the back half of the plan as we get recovery from the investments we're making outside the GRC based revenues. Second, based on the FERC decision on December 31, we have removed the FERC Tyso adder from our expected return on our transmission assets in California And finally, and this is an important one, think it's the right decision for Encore to go back in early for a base rate review to reset its cost structure and that puts downward pressure on their earnings forecast for this year. That decision will be made by the Encore team later this spring. Now turning to guidance. We had the opportunity to continue a 6% to 8% growth rate off of 2024 actuals. I'd like to repeat that. We could have maintained a 6% to 8% growth rate, but we chose not to because we have fundamentally raised our expectation of the earnings power of this business over the long term. We have discussed this difference in view of long term growth on previous earnings calls. But it's Sempra our long term growth forecast represents the growth we expect to produce over a sustained period of time. In this higher growth environment, we believe that range is 7% to 9% and we've appropriately raised our guidance.

Turning now to our current five year plan. And we expect the earnings contribution from Texas which is more valued in the market to significantly increase as a part of our overall earnings mix with Encore's rate base roughly doubling over the plan period. Before I close out, let me tell you why we're confident in our plan and producing results well above what we've talked about today.

Number one, as Karen talked about in her prepared remarks, the most important way to finance growth is through operating cash flows That's why we have various initiatives underway at our company to improve our cost structure and our financial returns.

Improved financial returns will improve our long term growth. Number two, as Alan outlined, his team expects to add another $12,000,000,000 to their capital plan. It's important to be clear here that is incremental capital that is expected within the plan period between 2025 and 2029. Third, Port Arthur Phase II is not included in the plan but we certainly expect that project to move forward later this year You'll recall, we have a very conservative practice of only putting projects in the plan at Semper Infrastructure after they have reached a final investment decision And finally, number four, in our utility segments, there are other planned opportunities related to authorized ROEs and capital structure as well as other improvements to the applicable regulatory construct In conclusion, we have lowered our guidance for 2025 but the key takeaway is we expect to produce stronger earnings per share growth in the future. Conservatively, we expect to produce 9% or higher through 2029 and it will disproportionately come from Sempra, Texas. I'll stop at this point so the operator can open the call we'd be glad to take your questions.

Thank you. This concludes the prepared remarks. We will now open the line to take your questions. Please limit your questions to one question and one follow-up. And our first question will come from Shar Pourreza from Guggenheim Partners. Your line is open.

Good morning, Shar. Good morning, guys. Good morning, Jeff. So just maybe starting off on the 25 rebased, there's just three pieces I want to reconfirm. Reconcile there. First, is the plan embedding lower rate based growth in Cal And And then similarly in Texas, does the higher interest and base rate filing? And then third, the natural gas sensitivity that remains with SIP, what was assumed versus the downward revision for 25 there? Thanks. I mean, it's a loaded question, but it's just around the Look, Shar, there's no question our revised guidance follows below the prior That being said, I think we're making the right decision for the business particularly looking to bring Encore in earlier for a base rate review. The answers to your question are yes, yes and we have not disclosed the third answer. I thought might be helpful is to see if Karen can go through a little bit more detail Karen you want to return to Slide 42 it might be helpful to walk through the key drivers to our 2025 guidance.

Sure. Thanks, Jeff. So I think we just finished finalized the five year plan with our Board last week and there's acute few key items at each business platform. So the first one that Jeff talked about, at Sempera Texas, our plan assumes that On four does file this comprehensive base rate review rather than waiting until 2027. Among other things, this impacts their tracker filings during the course of the proceeding, but it also provides the opportunity to update their revenue requirements to reflect the higher O and M, insurance costs and interest expense that they're seeing. The unprecedented growth in Texas, we think it makes sense to file more periodic rate cases to ensure the company's financial strength And while this is a negative for 2025, we think it's the right thing to do for Texas growth Turning to California, we have adjusted our financial forecast to include the final decision on the GRC. Which came in below the assumptions that were included in our prior plan. Also, it's important to note that the CPUC lowered the authorized return on equity by 42 basis points for 2025. That's an addition to the FERC 50 basis point CISO add or the Jeff spoke about.

In combination, these three items put downward pressure on our previous forecast Semper California. And then of course at SI last year, we announced a change in the expected schedule for commercial operations at ECA LNG to spring of twenty twenty six. And finally, apparent, we're seeing higher interest expense from growth in our capital plan as well as updated assumptions related to changes in interest rates over the prior year's forecast. Given all these impacts, it was important for us to reset our 2025 guidance and create a new base for our expected growth.

Thank you, Karen. And Sharra, to your third question, Obviously, our natural gas price assumption has gone down across the plan period. Got it. Got it. And then just lastly, shifting, Jeff, to the forward view, you're highlighting the upside in Texas that is material. And longer term on the SAP side with Port Arthur going into service and Port Arthur two now on an FID track, I guess the incremental to the new 7% to 9% plan, what does that imply for where you are in the range coming off the lower base, especially these incremental items come into plan? And I'm asking more around the current trajectory not beyond 29 Can you breach the 9% in the current trajectory? Thanks.

Yes, Jarrod. Thank you for that question. In the supplemental remarks I made on this call, I clarified that we fully expect in the 2025 to 2029 plan to be at 9% or higher as a CAGR across that plan period But remember, as we've always talked about, we tend to guide our EPS forecast over long periods of time at 7% to 9% It just so happens that in the plan period, we fully expect to exceed that. Fantastic. Thank you guys so much. Appreciate it. Thank you, Shar.

Thank you. Our next question will come from Nick Campanella from Barclays. Your line is open. Hi, Nick.

Hey, good morning, everyone or good afternoon. Thanks for taking the time. So I just wanted to touch on, you're raising your rate base CAGR about 1% and I understand you have to finance a lot of this capital and there's lag in Texas.

But 1% increase in the rate base CAGR for roughly a 10% or more cut in EPS expectations just seems somewhat counterintuitive. And I know that you said you can get back but you're within the six to eight. Off of 2024 on When you look back to the original plan, you can get there. But even using the high end of the 7% to 9% plan, it doesn't imply that you're really back in that range. It's 'twenty nine. Could have something wrong with the math there, but just why is it prudent to invest this much amount of capital and for shareholders to kind of take this much pain upfront for that capital?

Yes.

Thank you, Nick, for the question. You know, in a couple points there, as we did clarify, that we could have maintained a 6% to 8% long term EPS growth rate off of 2024 actuals. And that gives you some sense environment for all utilities is we think we have the opportunity for sustained EPS growth at levels above 6% to 8% And we've guided into the long term for that range. In the plan that we're talking about, we will not produce 7% to 9%. We expect to produce 9% or higher And to your point, there's no question that the front end of our financial results has been impacted We've got a lot of work to do as a management team to grind through 2025. To exceed expectations. And come back in 2026 and do it again, But long term, there's a fundamental view in our company that we have the opportunity to produce higher earnings and higher earnings per share than we've done historically the 9% range for the 2025 to 2029 period And let me give you an example of why I'm so bullish, if you'll allow me. Number one, go back to Encore. This is one of the upsides to our plan.

I think it's very important to be clear about what our expectations are.

Encore has a base plan of $36,000,000,000 that's shown on Slide 14.

This is a conservative view and generally covers [indiscernible] three areas of planned investment, Nick. First, approved investments inside SRP. Number two, capital investments where all regulatory approvals are already in hand. And capital needed to satisfy large C and I transmission requests that are subject to an existing interconnection or other agreement. Within that same planning horizon of 2025 NIC to 2029, again, 2025 to 2029, Encore management expects to make additional capital investments totaling $2,012,000,000,000 dollars and that's really important. And I'm just going to ballpark it for you. But if you run that through the waterfall of their earned ROE and their existing equity layer, That's $400,000,000 to $500,000,000 of upside earnings that we're talking about coming from that capital. And you can see that reflected on Slide [indiscernible] So allow me to talk about, Nick, what some of those incremental opportunities are that are expected by the Encore management team. There are seven of them. Number one, updates to the roll forward System Resiliency Plan for calendar years '28 and twenty nine. You'll recall that SRP today finishes in 2027 roughly. Number two, transmission investments in the Delaware Basin load integration plan. They are waiting regulatory approval today.

Transmission projects required by the local plan within the Permian Basin Reliability Study or regulatory approvals are also pending [indiscernible] import pathways arising from the Permian Basin Reliability Study.

There are three more new transmission projects for customers who are expected to sign interconnection or other agreements, And number six, new transmission identified in ERCOT's strategic transmission expansion plan they're expected within the planning period. And finally, additional maintenance and distribution upgrades When we acquired the majority of Encore in 2018, the rate base was $12,000,000,000 Today, it's more than doubled to $26,000,000,000 and we expect it to double again over $52,000,000,000 by 2029. That $52,000,000,000 does not have the $12,000,000,000 of initial investments that are now expected. When you take the base plan together with the additional capital opportunities outlined, Encore expects to invest approximately $48,000,000,000 in electrical network through 2029.

I hope that's helpful.

Thanks for the information. And then I guess just moving to the equity needs, we clarified, it seems like there's a lot of equities in the front part of the plan. Is that going to be would you consider a block And then you kind of talked about buying back stock. In footnote two, the sources and uses and I heard you in the prepared remarks Karen if you're issuing equity and repurchasing equity in the same five year plan, where does the balance sheet stand in the near term? And why is that the right kind of strategy here? Thank you.

Yes. Nick, I'll address that and Karen, you can come in if you want add anything to my comment. But I would refer you to Slide 33, Nick. Our equity needs are substantially similar to what we'd outlined on a net basis. Over the last couple of years. The three things I'd focus on is the most efficient source of financing is always our operating cash flow. Have a number of different initiatives in place to improve returns and lower cost. We can maximize our internally generated cash flows That will be a priority and the core part of our financing plan. Second, we'll look to issue new debt as well as new hybrids that get 50% equity treatment. And to your point, I want to speak specifically to it. You'll recall last quarter we established an ATM program to provide additional financing flexibility we plan to use that program and other sources of equity financing including asset sales at Semper Infrastructure.

Evaluation process underway focused in our Mexican assets and that's something we'll look to update the Street on in the coming months and quarters. That can come in the form of selling down further in the capital structure at SI as well as the expected asset sales that I referenced. Assuming asset sales at or above the $1,000,000,000 level, we expect to issue $2,000,000,000 to $3,000,000,000 in net equity and that's reflected on Slide 33. Each of these sources will be used to officially fund our capital plan.

Thank you. And our next question will come from Steve Fleishman from Wolfe Research. [indiscernible] [indiscernible] So just could you give us some sense of where F is at the I guess 24 and 25 and just if you had a chance to shows the new plan of the rating agencies and how that affects their view?

Thanks.

Sure. One of the things we do, Steve, is we always coordinate our capital plan and our expected sources and uses uses closer with the rating agencies This is obviously something we'll be meeting with them in later this spring. Karen, perhaps you can just update Steve on where we're at in terms of current discussions.

Sure. So I will say for 2024, we're below their for FFO to debt for the main agencies. We are in constant, this about our financial plan and that's why at our sources and uses, you saw that we had some equity in there. And that of course is to get us closer to those metrics that they're looking for in FFO to debt.

The other thing I would add, Steve, that's been helpful recently is crystallized the 2023 offering that we had in forwards on this at the December. We also got off some ATM equity in the fourth quarter and obviously adding about $3,000,000,000 of hybrids last year was also helpful.

Okay. But are you going to disclose what the FFO to debt was or in the plan? [indiscernible] it. We target obviously 15% at S and P and Karen or Glenn you'll add anything else to that. Yes. Obviously, our plan is to meet and exceed those metrics. Those are the discussions that we're having with the rating agencies right now.

And the equity that Jeff took you through is going to be what gets us there. So Steve, I think we're comfortable in the plan that will meet our metrics for 2025.

Okay. Okay. And then on the earned returns in Texas, can you give us any flavor on just even in '26 by the time you do have relief kind of what earned ROEs are you earning and rough cut looks like they're still like 7% to 8% could be wrong there. But just like how do you get those up toward the allowed and when?

Yes. Thank you for the question. For our audience, you're recall that we've got a 9.7% authorized ROE Because we have a we filed two different trackers both for distribution and transmission each year Steve, you're noting it correctly. We've got regulatory lag at that business. That impacts our earned ROE. The second thing that impacts earned ROE, Steve, is remember they have a backwards test year So right now they're operating off of their 2021 cost structure. The most important thing is across that planning cycle, will generally be between 89% At some point in the five year plan, they're actually above 9%. Couple of things are happening, right? SRP both the current SRP and the roll forward SRP for 2028 and 2029 are helpful. Plus, we expect to do things relative to our ROEs and equity layers and probably just as importantly is to true up our cost structure. Of the things that they've gone through is they've historically not gone in for rate cases on a periodic basis. But I think what's important now is they're going through so much growth Steve, as they build out their delivery capability it's very important and we should assume that they come back in for more periodic rate cases.

So we're comfortable that they'll have higher earned ROEs across the planning period. But generally, they run-in that 8% to 9% and much closer to nine a little bit above or below that toward the end of the planning cycle.

Okay.

Last question, just Obviously, this is a big reset to the prior plans and then you've kind of highlighted now this 9% growth up from the 7% to 9% you said this morning. Just what Jeff or could you say when we talk to folks like you're going to do differently to make sure you hit this 9% or better?

Yes. A couple of things. I appreciate you giving me opportunity to have the question is, I think we've got the right strategy, Steve. We've got a good financing plan. We've got a lot of growth And part of what you're challenged to do is is make sure you're allocating capital to the highest opportunities. What we just went through with our Board of Directors just finalized our financial plan last week. Is making sure that we're allocating capital, Steve, disproportionately to the businesses we think will earn the highest value on the street And you're seeing us gear our capital plan around growth at Encore and our Sempra Texas segment of the most important things we can do a series of regulatory outcomes at the end of twenty twenty four. And you recall Steve, that California rate case was supposed to be decided December of twenty twenty three. So that put a lot more entropy into our financial plan So I'd offer two things to you. Number one, we need to finish our financial planning process earlier in the year. Number two, we need to make sure that we're delivering better regulatory outcomes And number three, which I feel very good about is, we need to continue to allocate capital with a lot of discipline where we can produce the best results And I think taking Encore back in for a rate case, even though it pushes downward pressure on their returns this year, the right thing for the business longer term.

So just a little bit of a different view in terms of how you that is there is a 100% chance that we have lowered our expectations for what we can produce 'twenty five and 'twenty six that's a management issue I personally own that. You should expect to see us fight and claw to exceed expectations in 2025 and we should come back and do that again in '26 But the key point I want to tell you is the earnings power of this business is higher today than it was a year ago. So you can focus on the 2029 plan but our longer term assumption of what we can produce in a higher growth environment has gone up and that's not really related to the reset of 2025. We see more earnings power in the business and what we need to do Steve is spend more time with our investors and the sell side to make sure there's no asymmetry of knowledge. The planning numbers we have in front of us are not the exact planning numbers you all have visibility to.

So I think part of the answer to your question is let's find ways to have more transparency so that you have the same confidence that we do in the long term earnings power of the business.

Thank you. Thank you, Steve.

Thank you. Our next question will come from David Arcaro from Morgan Stanley. Your line is open. Good morning, David.

Good morning. Thanks so much for taking the question. I guess, maybe a bit of a continuation of that last question Is there a point in the plan where you expect that crossover to meet kind of when you catch back up to the prior six to eight EPS growth level? Look, I'm not sure that Sempra providing the guidance as to where the crossover occurs. I think what we're trying to express is we've really revised the long term view of the earnings per share growth rate that we can deliver While talking about inside our five year planning period, we expect a beat that rate of growth And that's really important. I mean, even today, in the fifth year of our plan, we've got an earnings per share number that is well above the fifth year of last year's plan. Right? So what we're trying to do is make sure that we're guiding the strength of our convictions about the business to grow the ability to grow the business in the long term And we don't feel great about the 2025 guidance, but it was the right thing to do for the business Our job now, David, is to make sure that we execute well in 2025 and 2026 to make sure we earn everyone's confidence.

Yes, understood. Appreciate the comments there. And then maybe would you be able to touch on the we've got active legislation or active legislative backdrops, I guess, in both Texas and California here. Would you be able to touch on your thoughts around potential impacts or changes to the financial profile of Texas Utilities based on any legislation that could come this session? And then maybe on the wildfire legislative backdrop in California, any efforts there? To look for some more longer term changes to the wildfire funding and protection? In the states? Sure. There's a variety of questions there. But what might be helpful is let me give you a little bit of visibility into where the growth is coming from in Texas. Because I think that's reflective of the quality of the legislative session we had two years ago.

And I think that also impacts how Alan can talk about that. But Alan, if you could do two things, how that influences some of the regulatory initiatives you're following regulatory and legislative initiatives you're following in Austin.

I know I talked a lot about growth in my prepared remarks, so It's unprecedented. Really unlike anything we've ever seen. And I'll try to break it down in some categories and maybe provide some color and some context.

First, Premise growth, as I said before, continues to be around 2% annual.

We connected 77,000 new premise in '24 it's a 5% year over year increase from '23 The story really continues to be transmission points of interconnection where we set a record for new and active transmission POIs in our queue.

The total for '24 is up above the total for '23 by about 28%. Broken down into generation and LC and I, the two categories. Here. Generation in 2024 is up about 8% over where it was in December of 'twenty three.

And then the real story continues to be on the LC and I Q where 24 numbers were up about 62% above where they were in December of twenty twenty three. This LC and IQ presently represents about 137 gigawatts of potential load That's about a 250% increase over where we were in the [indiscernible] Broken down two ways into two pieces rather about 119 gigawatts of that 137 total is data centers.

And about 18 gigawatts is non data center, more traditional LC and I. With regard to this potential LC and I load, in 2024, we submitted to ERCOT ALIS of LC and I customers that we had high confidence that they would eventually sign an agreement and post collateral which we believe are clear key indicators of the likelihood of the potential load actually materializing. So in twenty twenty four, we submitted 25 gigawatts of high confidential high confidence load rather In 2025, we increased that to 29 gigawatts of high confident potential load. So when you look at our 25 high confidence load projection of 29 and you add that to the number of customers with whom we already have signed agreements involving collateral, That represents potential new load of approximately 36 gigawatts on a system that presently peaks about 31 gigawatts. So we're looking at increasing potentially our peak load by about 200% or more by 02/1931. Now Important component to that factor or that fact rather is that is LC and I customers alone. That growth number does not include residential growth, does not include small commercial growth, and it does include oil and gas growth that will ultimately connect to the Permian project.

So when you're looking at our $36,000,000,000 five year capital plan right now, We only have about 12 gigawatts of that LC and I load in the $36,000,000,000 plan with about 8.5 gigawatts of that being data. So to Jeff's point, when you look at the incremental bucket, we fully expect much of that $12,000,000,000 to ultimately be part of our base plan. I'll just conclude by saying West Texas remains very strong The Far West Texas weather zone that is Sempra new peak that was in '24, that is about 16 plus percent above the prior year peak. And then with regards to our two transmission loops that serve that area, Culberson new peak in 2024 was about 42% above the peak in 'twenty three.

And the Stanton peak was about 8.8% above the 2023 peak.

So overall incredibly strong growth all over our system which is really driving the increased cap numbers that Jeff just You're talking about regulatory initiatives you're tracking? Legislation? Yes.

Yes. So we're early on in the Texas legislative session. And we still have a long ways to to go with committee hearings and bills still being filed Some of the things that we're particularly interested in and are following are various ideas related to the backlog and increase in large load customers, much of which I just discussed. And in particular, issues related to cost allocation issues for example, SB6, Proposals to reflect utility actual cap structures as a such as HB 2,668, [indiscernible] think this would be an important step because it would shore up the balance sheets of the state utilities during this high period of really strong growth.

And then we're tracking various ideas that could potentially set limits [indiscernible] of the more challenging weather events that we're all facing and there's been at least couple of bills filed in that regard and maybe more to come. So we're going to continue watching. There's other concept as well, but those are kind of some of the key areas right now. Think the bottom line is we remain very confident that the state of Texas will continue to implement good public policies that support both our customers and our shareholders.

Thank you, Alan. And then David, I'll also talk a little bit about how we're thinking about legislation in California As you know, we have a financial backstop in place today under AB ten fifty four. Over the last five years. I think that served the state well providing stability to the marketplace. As well in allowing utilities to raise capital efficiently which also reduces cost to customers. I'm not prepared to forecast the outcome of this legislative session, but I'm confident the right people are focused on the issue with a view toward reducing risk. And remember, this is not just utility issue, this is a broader wildfire risk really a societal issue in California. I would also note that on Slide forty seven and forty eight, David, we provide a wildfire mechanism summary about how it works currently. You can see it outlines that the liability cap at SDG and E is $1,400,000,000 and that's a worst case scenario Beyond the wildfire mechanism, SDG and E has not had a significant utility caused wildfire in seventeen years And recently, SDG and E encountered substantially similar, in some cases, worse red flag conditions than what's experienced in the LA region this year.

And SDG and E successfully managed its system safely. So think there's an opportunity for legislation We feel great about the backdrop of AB ten fifty four. But the most important thing we can do as a management team across all three of our business platforms is run our businesses safely and protect our communities.

Great. Thanks very much. Thank you, David.

Thank you. One moment for our next question please. Our next question will come from Ross Fowler from Bank of America. Your line is open.

Good morning, Ross. Good morning or afternoon on the side of How are you So just a couple of questions. Kind of maybe one for you, Karen, go back to Slide 42 for a second.

Just trying to understand kind of the moving pieces and maybe the magnitude of the moving pieces a little bit. I know the exact magnitude California GRC PD was out in the fall. And ICA LNG Phase one was delayed to the Spriga 26 on in August, I believe, of last year. So Was that sort of contemplated in your prior 2025 guidance kind of on the third quarter call on that EAI, or is that pushing you to the low end? Or is most of the magnitude sort of midpoint to midpoint based on the Texas changes, the 50 basis points, the things that we've gotten since then or just trying to figure out what was in '25 on the third quarter call on some of these factors and then what kind of moved everything?

Sure. Hi, Ralph. Thank you for the question. Obviously, we talked about the three most important recent events, two of which were at the very December and then the recent decision on base rate case non core five issues that we're referring to?

Sure. And it's a good question because as you know, we were finalized it recently. So some of the data points we had and some we did not. So starting with the rate case We received a final at the December, which was unfortunately not we thought we'd get better between the proposed and the final, but That's typically what we see. We did not see that here. And then going into January, as we implement through our financial plan. And again, the impact it's having of having things outside the rate case and having to hold those funds on our balance sheet is causing additional pressure because it's taking so long for us to get that funding. Now again, we've been it's resulted in the latter half of our plan, but that was certainly an impact. That continued to get worse. The other two big pieces in California, the piece we knew about was the cost of capital. So that was the bigger of the two, obviously. And I think you could cap that as probably about $50,000,000 hit there. What was added at the end of December was the FERC, CHISO adder that again was unexpected. So that's closer I think to about $20,000,000 additional.

So those are two things that also impact of California. In Texas, this is really brand new. We really looked at the plan. We talked a lot to Encore about going in for this rate case, just seeing the higher cost of this capital growth the right rise in insurance to overall O and M costs, The decision here really is, it's a hit to 25 we think it's the right thing to do. So I know it's hard. I know it's disappointing. [indiscernible] And then as I mentioned, as we load in the Texas growth, which was again higher than we anticipated in even November, December, that's having us increased interest at the parent to fund all this growth. So there is a mixture there of things we knew in the third quarter and then things that became newly aware of in late December and really some of these items just in the last two weeks.

Jeff, do you want to add anything there? No, I think that's good. Thank you. And then just Jeff, you said something interesting about the growth rate because it's growing at about 12%, 13% midpoint to midpoint 25% to 26% and then you said interesting on the call that, that should pull through to future years. So if I think about 7% to 9%, I'm just trying to think about the right base year. I think about that 7% to 9% or now you're saying above 9%.

Off the 26% base because that growth is pulling through? Or should I think about the above nine on the 25?

How should I think about that?

Yes. I think this is one of the challenge, Ross.

I think we've had conversations with you on and other analysts for many, many years, we did not have a long term EPS growth rate. And I think it was in 2022 where we brought that back. And one of the reasons we brought it back was we view that as a long term expectation of sustained growth, what do we think we can produce. So think about that over seven to ten years. We're really in an upswing of capital spending across the industry. And based on our visibility, we try to provide some of that today as you saw the growth that Encore's anticipating in the thirty two thousand and thirty to 02/1934 timeframe. So we have a raised expectation of how we can grow the business over the long term. Now you come back inside the 2025 to 2029 plan, which you're articulating, we certainly think that we're going to be at or above the high end of that, right? And the issue will be what happens in the intra planning years that you're referring to And this is one of the issues is most analysts just take 1.07 or 1.08 and they add that each year in the plan, We don't expect our earnings growth to be like that.

We expect there to be periods of growth well above 7% to 9% at various parts of the plan and you're going to have years like you have now where you've got the lower growth in 2025. So if you think about our business over a long period of time, we have had inflection points just like you see today The management team is frustrated by it Many of our investors are frustrated by it. But fundamentally, our view of what we can produce over longer periods of time has increased and we're going to try to do exactly what you're talking about increase the growth rate in the planning years through 2029 I've given you kind of a roadmap of the things we're going to be focused on to try to improve our projections.

And some of that growth variance, Jeff, to be fair, is the lumpiness of wind down LEO projects come into that? [indiscernible] That's exactly correct. I mean, as an example, you raised this with Karen.

It was a sinuscon issue that we could maintain guidance for 2025 by moving ECO Phase one out of 2025. That was a big issue. We felt confident we had planning room to do that. But there was kind of a series of things that put us into the low end of the range as Karen talked about. These three recent events I think caused us to reassess 2025. 2025 is an inflection point for us, Ross. I think you're on the right issues. We're going to exceed expectations relative to 7% to 9% What we have to do a better job of is in the near term producing results that exceed expectations we've got a track record of doing that and there's a commitment on our management team to get back to that.

Okay. Thank you very much.

Thank you.

Thank you. One moment for our next question. And our next question will come from Carly Davenport from Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

Hello, Carly. Hey, Jeff. Thanks for taking the questions. Maybe just two quick ones from me on upcoming regulatory filings. Just as you look to cost of capital in California, just given some of the moving pieces there lately, can you talk a little bit about what you expect to put forth there? And anything you can share about what's embedded kind of in the plan around California returns?

Yes. I would just start by saying that we saw some backwardation in the authorized returns in California in the last twelve months as there were changes to the cost of capital mechanism That filing is upcoming for our company and we look forward to doing that. I think our planning assumption is something very similar to what we have in the plan today. We also think given the market environment, it's an opportunity to improve our returns in the state.

Great. That's helpful. And then just as you look towards the potential encore rate case filing, apologies if I missed this, but I think you had mentioned a more frequent cadence of filings there going forward. Just kind of any color on what you think that could look like relative to the four year requirement?

Yes.

You recall that the two rate cases ago, Encore sell their rate case in November of twenty seventeen. That was in the middle of our purchase of the EfH interest went back in with a base year of 2021 to prosecute that case in 2022. And remember, it wasn't actually finalized until May of twenty twenty three.

So you've got a rate case in May of twenty twenty three with a cost run rate in that business off of 2021 think about the growth they've been through Carly in terms of headcount, O and M, increased insurance costs. And I think that's really been together with the regulatory lag putting pressure on their earned ROEs We think this is the right time something that we don't want to be defensive about in the middle of the legislative session. But we're comfortable enough to assume that in our guidance. And it does put material downward pressure on our expectation for 2025. But you'll see that have a very positive expectation in 2026. It will depend on when those rates are effective. We think this is the right thing to do to put them on a better footing to earn much higher earned ROEs.

Appreciate that color. Thank you. Thank you, Carly.

Thank you. And our next question will come from Anthony Crodell from Mizuho. Your line is open. Just two quick questions. One is I guess maybe it's kind of following Steve's question earlier.

If I think about the cadence of regulatory filings I think there's another filing that would happen in California maybe in '26 for new rates in '28.

What confidence do you have that the plan is stressed [indiscernible] We don't have a repeat of it looks like a challenging filing came as December that caused this reset that the next plan a similar thing given even though Texas is growing, it's still 45% of the company?

Yes, a couple of things is, through 2027 when we come back into California and file the next rate case, the good news in California is you use a forward test year which I think is a positive fact.

We [indiscernible] Now you may remember we filed for 12.25% without the FERC adder, that's 11.75% there's an opportunity to prosecute that case or settle it. But we think there's an opportunity to improve returns at FERC. Obviously, Carly mentioned this too, but the cost of capital mechanism this year is a positive and obviously the regulatory filing taking place in OnCourse is a positive. I will mention that CenterPoint on their recent rate case got a slightly higher bump to their equity layer Clearly, I think there's an opportunity there as well for Encore. So look, I think we've got the business set up now where we have relatively conservative assumptions I've outlined all the positive aspects of opportunities that are not in the plan. But you're raising another good one, which is there are opportunities around earned ROEs, capital structure and other issues in the regulatory compact both in Texas and California and with FERC, which could prove to be upside to our plan.

Great. And then just one quick follow-up.

I think to Ross's question, you talked about investors may miss some of the earnings power of the company. If they just take last year's number and multiply it by 1.07 with some factor.

Just thought as you feel and just hearing you seem plan is more resilient. Thoughts of not giving annual guidance further than just two years. You gave us 25, you gave us 26. We've seen some companies that feel really good about their plan. You've been giving us an annual guidance north of the two years Any thoughts of doing that to give the Street more transparency of the earnings power given it may not be linear?

Yes. You make a great point because it certainly has not been historically linear for our company. And I think this has been a misunderstanding [indiscernible] decade, gave out years one and two and we gave a fifth year earnings guidance I wish I'd given a fifth year earnings guidance for this call because I think people would be a lot happier by the way. We haven't done that. But I would say that we started doing in 2022 Anthony was given years one and two, and I think we understand that we can deliver those with some level of confidence today and we're going to try to beat those And then we've raised our long term EPS guidance range We think about that as a number beyond the planning period. I've indicated that we're quite confident that we can deliver at above that range in the planning period.

So you raised a good point. I think the key issue is to make sure that there's not asymmetry of knowledge between what we have in our plan and how we illustrate it or make it transparent to Wall Street I think we've got some more work to be done in that area. So we're certainly open minded about other ideas to increase that transparency.

Great. Thanks for taking my questions. Thank you. Thank you. And our next question will come from Paul Fremont from Ladenburg Thalmann and Co. Great. Guess my first question is really a follow-up to Carly's question.

In terms of cost of capital, are you assuming that there's no significant change in the ROE assumption that comes out of the cost of capital this year?

Yes, I would say that we've got an existing cost of capital for both businesses. Think in the plan today, we think it's substantially similar to that. I think there's an opportunity to exceed the plan expectations.

Great. And then also following up sort of David O'Cara's question on California legislation.

There was no replenishment of the fund, is there an alternative coming out of the legislature rather than topping up the fund, back to the $21,000,000,000 Yes, this is a great question. And obviously, this has been on the minds of a lot of people up and down the state and a lot of people who are investors in the state. And what I can't do is I really can't forecast the outcome. I can basically say this, the mechanism that's in place today has worked well. So I know there's a lot of ideas today about, for example, extending the CWR bonds which would make that a in perpetuity fund So it go well above $21,000,000,000 That's one of the ideas that's been floated around from other utilities in the state, specifically the large municipal utilities. There's been discussions around allowing each utility to have their own separate or segregated wildfire fund From our standpoint, it goes back to a couple of things. Number one, you got to remember this is a societal issue in California.

Right? Wildfires are rarely started by utilities, Lots of people are impacted. And I think there's a lot of focus on making sure this gets solved. Know, for example, that Guggenheim is back in as a consultant with the Governor's Office Guggenheim was also a consultant back in 2019 for AB ten fifty four. So look, I think the right people are joined on the issue. And from our standpoint, because we had such little contributions to the fund, a relatively low liability cap even if we were improved it. We think the fund makes a lot of sense. Anything we can do as a state to strengthen the fund and ensure there's not issues or concerns like the ones you're [indiscernible] we feel good about, number one, making sure we run a safe business. That will always be our day to day focus and we'll obviously be at the table in Sacramento to support legislation that strengthens either the current mechanism or some form of replacement that's better than what we currently have.

And then another California utility sort of implied that this might not happen this legislative session that it might take two years for the legislature to put something new in place.

Is that timing consistent with with your thoughts Look, I've said this a couple of times now. I'm not prepared to forecast an outcome. I'm prepared to say that a lot of people are working on it right now. So I think an answer from our legislative body sooner rather than later would be helpful. I feel good about the current framework of AB ten fifty four. So any activity that strengthens Wall Street's confidence that you can earn an appropriate return in California is a positive and guess what, it also allows our ratepayers to have lower cost. So this issue of taking risk away from the business, making sure we have the appropriate returns and the appropriate equity layers. That's very, very important in terms of how we access capital. And it allows the ratepayers to be exposed to less cost.

And then when I look at your 26 sort of guidance numbers, It looks like the benefit at Encore is mostly eaten up or completely eaten up by losses or additional loss at the parent. Can you is that because of the timing of the encore rate case or [indiscernible] what's happening there?

Yes. Would you mind repeating that question again?

Sure. It looks in 2026 as if [indiscernible] improvement at Sempra, Texas, is more than offset by additional losses at the parent.

Well, I would say there's a lot of different things that go into parent cost structure right? Obviously, it has to do with our financing the business, whether we're using hybrids, we're using traditional finance, mechanisms, whether we're doing equity, I would not associate those two together. I think what we're trying to do is we're going to provide greater earnings power from all three business segments across the five year plan And I think Karen's job and Glenn's job as the Treasurer is to make sure we're financing it in the most efficient way possible If we can beat those twenty twenty six numbers I can assure you we're going to try to do that.

Thank you. And that concludes today's question and answer session. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference back to Jeff Martin for any additional closing remarks.

No, I would just say that we're pleased that people could join us on the call. I know there's been a lot of changes in terms of how people are thinking about our business. I appreciate the fact that there are some competing calls today as well. We appreciate everyone joining us I want to mention that our executive team is attending multiple investor conferences in New York next week. I think that's a real opportunity to meet with Encore senior team We hope to see many of you there. Per customer, if there are any follow-up items, please reach out to our IR team with your questions. Thank you again and this concludes our call.

Thank you for your participation.

Everyone, have a wonderful day.