New Thread

Ctrl

Taylor Morrison Home Corporation Stock Price: Quote, Forecast, Splits & News (TMHC)

Perplexity Finance

Company Profile

Taylor Morrison Home Corporation Price & Performance (TMHC)

Stock Performance

Updated Apr 25, 8:00 PM UTC

Taylor Morrison Home Corporation

$57.62USD

-$0.52 (-0.89%)

Open

$57.88

Market Cap

$5.78B

Year High

$75.49

High

$57.89

P/E Ratio

6.7

Year Low

$51.90

Low

$57.09

Dividend Yield

0.00%

Volume

825.16K

Latest News

Robust Q1 Results Drive Taylor Morrison Upward
Apr 23, 2025
Taylor Morrison Home reported first-quarter revenue of $1.9 billion, exceeding analyst expectations and reflecting an 11.5% year-over-year increase. Adjusted EPS reached $2.18, surpassing forecasts by nearly 15%. Strong home closings and improved gross margins contributed to the performance, prompting optimism for full-year delivery targets and continued margin resilience.1234
Analysts Boost Taylor Morrison Price Targets After Earnings Beat
Apr 23, 2025
Following Taylor Morrison's Q1 earnings beat, a leading analyst firm raised its price target to $79, citing the stock’s undervaluation and robust financials. The homebuilder’s shift toward higher-margin communities, efficiency gains, and aggressive share repurchases are seen as positive factors supporting further growth despite ongoing market competition.53
Investor Sentiment Remains Positive for Taylor Morrison Shares
Apr 24, 2025
Taylor Morrison’s stock has garnered strong analyst interest, with a consensus rating of Moderate Buy and expectations for double-digit earnings growth next year. Despite some increase in short interest, the company’s low P/E ratio and stable valuation metrics suggest continued investor confidence in its long-term prospects.67

What's Happening

Peers

Earnings

Report Date

Apr 23, 2025

Reported Revenue

1.9B

Miss -13.28%

Avg 1d Change

2.37%

Report Period

Q1 2025

Reported EPS

2.2

Beat +17.84%

Implied Move 1d

7.73%

Transcript

12m 39s

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us today. Before we begin, let me remind you that this call is including the question and answer session, will include forward looking statements. These statements are subject to the Safe Harbor statement for forward looking information that you can review in our earnings release on the Investor Relations portion of our website at taylormorrison.com. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause results to differ materially from our expectations and projections. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, those factors identified in the release and in our filings with the SEC and we do not undertake any obligation to update our forward looking statements. In addition, we will refer to certain non GAAP financial measures on the call which are reconciled to GAAP figures in the release. Now I will turn the call over to our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Cheryl Palmer. Thank you, Mackenzie, and good morning, everyone. Joining me is Kirk Van Hefst our Chief Financial Officer and Eric Susser, our Chief Corporate Operations Officer. To begin, I would like to recognize our team's exceptional performance during the first three months of the year.

13m 53s

Among the highlights, we delivered 3,048 homes at an average price of 600,000. Producing 1,800,000,000.0 of home furnishings revenue. That's plus percent year over year. With an adjusted home closings gross margin of 24.8% up 80 basis points year over year. Combined with 70 basis points of SG and A leverage our adjusted earnings per diluted share increased 25% while our book value per share grew 16% to approximately $58. Once again, each of our operational metrics met or exceeded our prior guidance. These strong top and bottom line results reflect the benefits of our diversified consumer and product strategy. Especially involves the market environment system. Diversification is a valuable differentiator that we believe contributes to volume and margin resiliency From a sales perspective, the slow start in January gave way to stabilization in February. And modest growth in March. Following the historic pattern, albeit with slightly less velocity. We would have otherwise anticipated during the early spring selling season. In total, our monthly absorption rate increased to 3.3 per from 2.6 in the fourth quarter but was down from the near record of 3.7 each a year ago. As I noted on our last earnings call, we experienced a exceptional sales trends in the first quarter of twenty twenty four.

15m 30s

Driven by a decline in interest rates that helped unleash that demand. Alternatively, this first quarter interest rates moved higher alongside macroeconomic and political uncertainty related to tariffs and immigration. More recently, the significant volatility in the spot market and additional policy related changes have impacted buyer's urgency causing some shoppers to move to the sidelines as we have seen before. During periods of uncertainty. Despite these headwinds, it's worth highlighting that our first quarter's pace was still solidly ahead of our pre COVID historic average of 2.6 from 2013 to 2019, reflecting our strategic shift into higher pacing larger community that is helping support our long term ROE target. It's also worth highlighting that our sales success was in part due to strong year over year improvement in conversion of online home reservation another driver of improved efficiency. Depreciating the macro backdrop, our first quarter for performance highlights several key drivers of our success that I believe are unique Taylor Morrison. First, even in the face of rising incentives our industry, our diversified portfolio is relatively insulated broader net pricing pressure due to the strength of our fire and appeal of our quality location [indiscernible] And product offerings. By Consumer Group, our first quarter orders consisted of 32% entry level, 47% move up, and 21% resort lifestyle.

17m 14s

On a year over year basis, our resort lifestyle set was the only to post growth with a 3% increase in net orders aided by strength in Florida. While our move up sales were down just 2% and entry level sales declined steeply down 21%. Secondly, our emphasis on personalized finance incentives including proprietary forward commitment structures allows us to be tactical in our use of such tools to help our consumers with their home purchase. 42% of our first quarter closings used a forward commitment just over half of which were first time homebuyers. By using these and other incentive programs effectively, incentives on new orders increased only 20 basis points sequentially during the quarter. As we have discussed in detail, we believe our diverse consumer segmentation is critically important given varying demand and financial profiles among different buyer groups that contribute to healthier more resilient growth opportunities and pricing over time. To that point, we have been closely monitoring our proprietary shopper survey data for any insight into the consumer mindset of late. This information is always an important input into our marketing and incentive offers as we look to best address consumer needs. Unsurprisingly, home prices and interest rates have been the most common theme cited by shoppers in their home buying decision.

18m 47s

However, parsing the data by generations reveals important differences. These responses are more common for Gen z and millennial consumers than for Gen X and boomers. Are instead more focused on finding their next home floor plan, and community location as well as selling their existing home. Interestingly, across all age groups, uncertainty around tariffs was cited equally, but not as a significant factor. This data gives us confidence that demand, particularly in our second move up and resort lifestyle, will likely recover quickly as consumers regain greater clarity on the macro outlook. And lastly, because of the expertise of our new teams, we are nimble in balancing decent price at the community level as we make daily operating decisions designed to reach our targeted returns. Given our diversification and emphasis on core locations, there is not a singular approach to our pay versus price strategy. But rather an ongoing community specific process that considers each asset's unique competitive dynamics sales momentum, other market influences. We believe that this community by community approach is even more critical in the current environment because we are seeing significant urgency in the performance of [indiscernible] versus noncore locations. As Eric will elaborate, total of both existing and new homes has risen sharply across the country, with the vast majority of this eye located in noncore submarket.

20m 29s

It is in these markets which primarily serve entry level consumers with spec offerings where discounting and incentives are the greatest. Alternatively, prime poor communities, particularly with two people's products, are generally faring better with manageable incentives. And solid pricing. With this in mind, it's worth highlighting that 58% of our first quarter closings were spec homes. Including a record 27% that were sold and closed each quarter. Well ahead of the 21 to 24% share in the prior February. Smaller teams have been effective in selling and closing spec homes. Finished inventory at quarter end was elevated compared to our targeted levels at 2.4 homes per community. Following the slower start to the spring. In response, we moderated our first quarter start pace by 6% year over year and will remain highly selective in new starts moving forward. Additionally, we will look to move for finished specs for the remainder of the selling season to return to more normalized inventory levels resulting in a higher anticipated spend penetration in the second quarter. As a result, we expect incentives to rise more meaningfully in the second quarter. Given the lower margin and price associated with specs as compared to two deal homes, we expect moderation in our home closings gross margin to around 23% and in our average closing price to around 585,000, in the second quarter with approximately 3,200 deliveries.

22m 14s

For the remainder of the year, we are assuming expenses remain at current elevated levels although market conditions are highly fluid and dependent on mortgage [indiscernible] As a result, we now expect to deliver between 13,000 to 13,500 phones this year at a home closing gross margin around 23%. Alongside this revised volume forecast, we have reduced our expected land investment this year to approximately $2,400,000,000 and 2,600,000,000.0 previously and are ensuring that new land underwriting decisions are sensitized to a wide range of pricing and pay scenarios. At the same time, we now expect to repurchase approximately $300,000,000 of our shares outstanding this year the high end of our prior target. While the current environment has made it challenging to provide near term guidance with strong conviction, We remain confident in our long term trajectory on our path to 20,000 closings by 2028. The path will not be a straight line as we navigate the market, with 2025 now expected to represent a speed fund on our path there.

23m 30s

However, we believe our disciplined underwriting and attractive product position is strongly supportive by business capable of generating low to mid [indiscernible] and high teen returns on equity over time. Looking further out, we continue to believe the market overall remains undersupplied and demographics for this.

23m 53s

Of the strong need new construction. As you heard at our Investor Day in March, we transformed and solidified Taylor Morrison's operational capabilities through strategic rationalization and optimization of our products community footprint, and customer segmentation, by leveraging digital sales tool and personalized finance incentives we are driving efficiencies throughout our business from lead generation sales conversion, and revenue opportunity Backed by our industry leading innovation and customer experience, we are confident that we are well positioned for outsized growth. In the years ahead. And aspiring to reach 20,000 closings we will prioritize bottom line earnings and returns for our shareholders while always maintaining the health of our balance sheet. We are not interested in growth. For growth sake. As our strategy has proven over the last decade plus, we seek to maximize long term return potential by thoughtfully balancing both taste and price through a uniquely diversified portfolio that is well positioned to withstand housing cyclicality. With that, let me now turn the call [indiscernible] Thanks, Cheryl, and good morning.

25m 8s

Beginning with our land portfolio, our owned and controlled lot inventory was 86,266 home building lots at quarter end Based on trailing twelve month closings, this represented six point five years of supply. Of which only two point seven years was owned. Of these total lots, 59% were controlled via options and off balance sheet structure. Up from 53% a year ago to a new company high as we continue making progress towards our goal of controlling at least 65% of lots The importance of being able to self develop our team in capital efficient ways cannot be understated. Our recent survey has been that over 80% of our shoppers value the community and amenity options at least as much as the actual home. Reinforcing our strength as a community developer. As Cheryl noted, we now expect our homebuilding land investment this year to be around $2,400,000,000 down from our prior expectation of approximately $2,600,000,000 driven by prudence along with the reduction in anticipated full year closing Of course, our ultimate cash investment will be to dependent on market opportunities as we maintain our disciplined underwriting guardrails. As a reminder, all previously approved transactions as well as future phases of development are rereviewed by our investment committee for final alignment or any necessary adjustments before closing.

26m 36s

From a community count perspective, we forecast an ending outlet count of around March and at least 355 by the end of the year. As we have discussed previously, our average underwritten outlet size and sales pace expectation have evolved over time. In recent years, both metrics have increased. Allowing us to efficiently expand our business on a smaller community count. [indiscernible] As I have shared in recent quarters, we are carefully tracking rising inventory of both resale and new home supply. Which has been more pronounced Florida and Texas. We continue to find that the majority of the supply would not be considered directly competitive to our new home communities. For example, specific to new home inventory in Texas, we have found that the submarkets in which we operate have an average month of supply that is 19% below that of our other submarkets within the respective MSA. Again, highlighting the benefits. [indiscernible] To reinforce that our emphasis on quality locations resonates with our consumers, we recently surveyed our shoppers whether they considered their Taylor Morrison community on interest [indiscernible] which the overwhelming majority of respondents affirmed. Somewhat related, over a half of shoppers also confirmed that they were aware of the home insurance benefits associated with new construction including superior availability and cost implications.

28m 7s

Taken together, both of these factors helped partially insulate us from some of the headwinds currently facing our industry. We will continue to leverage our internal muscle of being able to decipher market data and to deeply engage with our shoppers and buyers in understanding your concerns, needs, and wants as the cycle evolves. With that, I will turn the call to Kurt. Thanks, Eric. Good morning, everyone. For the first quarter, reported net income was $213,000,000 or $2.7 per diluted share, After excluding an impairment charge, our adjusted net income $225,000,000 or $2.18 per diluted share. This was up 25% from adjusted earnings per share of $1.75 in the first quarter of twenty twenty four driven by higher revenue due to increased closing volume a higher adjusted home closings gross margin healthy SG and A leverage, and a lower diluted share count. Our closings volume increased 12% year over year to 3,048 homes. The average closing price of these deliveries was roughly flat from a year ago at $600,000 This produced home closings revenue of $1,800,000,000 up 12%. From a production standpoint, we reduced our start pace by 6% to 3.3 per community from 3.5 a year ago. Equating to total starts of 3,382 in the first quarter.

29m 45s

This moderation is consistent with our strategy of aligning new starts with sales and carefully managing our inventory to achieve targeted levels. At quarter end, we had 8,032 homes under production of which 3,482 were specs. Including eight forty finished homes, or 2.4 per community. During the quarter, our cycle times continued to improve and were down approximately twenty five days from the first quarter of twenty twenty four. And more than one hundred and twenty days since the peak we experienced in the first quarter of twenty twenty three. The ongoing improvement in cycle times allows us to start and close a higher number of homes during the year improving our ability to flex our growth potential as market conditions evolve. As Cheryl noted, we now expect to deliver between 13,000 to 13,500 homes this year. Down from our prior guidance of 13,500 to 14,000 homes This includes approximately 3,200 homes in the second quarter. Given a higher anticipated spec penetration in the coming months, as we sell through finished inventory, we expect the average closing price to moderate sequentially to approximately $585,000 in the second quarter However, for the full year, we continue to anticipate the average closing price to be in the range of $590,000 to $600,000 Our home closings gross margin was 24% on a reported basis.

31m 26s

And 24.8% adjusted for a $15,000,000 impairment charge This compared to an adjusted home closings gross margin of 24.9% in the prior quarter and 24% a year ago. As we look into the second quarter, anticipate our home closings gross margin to moderate to approximately 23%. This is reflective of a higher mix of spec homes which generate lower margins than to be built homes in part due to higher competitive pressures. We're also expecting incentives to trend higher as they did throughout the first quarter as market dynamics evolved. Recognizing there are more uncertainties than is typical as we look out to the remainder of the year, we currently expect our home closings gross margin to be around 23% this year, the low end of our prior guidance range. This assumes land cost inflation of approximately 7% low single digit stick and brick cost inflation and a continuation of challenged market conditions. Taking a step back, we are pleased that this year's home closings gross margin outlook remains within our long term target of the low to mid 20% range despite the significant macro headwinds and competitive pressures at play. We continue to believe that our diversified consumer segmentation and mix of spec in to be built homes enhances our long term margin resiliency.

32m 56s

Now to sales. We generated 3,374 net orders which was down 8% from last year's exceptionally strong first quarter. Our monthly absorption pace was 3.3 per community down from 3.7 a year ago while our ending outlet count was up 4% to 344 communities. Cancellations equaled 11% of gross orders. This was consistent with long term norms as we continue to benefit from our diligent prequalification requirements and average backlog customer deposits of approximately $48,000 per home. SG and A as a percentage of home closings revenue was 9.7% down 70 basis points from a year ago. For the year, we continue to expect our SG and A ratio to improve to the mid-nine percent range from 9.9% in 2024. Financial services revenue was $51,000,000 with a gross margin of 44.7%. As compared to $47,000,000 and 46.5% in the first quarter of twenty twenty four. Our financial services team maintained a strong capture rate of 89 up from 87% a year ago During the quarter, buyers financed by Taylor Morrison Home Funding had an average credit score of seven fifty one down payment of 22% and household income of $187,000 Turning now to our balance sheet. We ended the quarter with liquidity of approximately $1,300,000,000 This included $378,000,000 of unrestricted cash and $934,000,000 of available capacity on a revolving credit facility which was undrawn outside normal course letters of credit.

34m 54s

Our net homebuilding debt to capitalization ratio was within targeted ranges at 20.5% at quarter end and our next senior note maturity is not until 2027. During the quarter, we repurchased 2,200,000.0 shares of our common stock outstanding for $135,000,000 At quarter end, our remaining repurchase authorization was $775,000,000 Having repurchased a total of approximately $1,900,000,000 of our shares outstanding since 02/2015, we expect to continue utilizing our healthy cash generation to repurchase our shares with programmatic and opportunistic strategies. For 2025, we are now targeting total share repurchases to be around the high end of our prior guide range at approximately $350,000,000 Inclusive of this target, we now expect our diluted shares outstanding to average approximately 101,000,000 for the full year including $102,000,000 in the second quarter. Now will turn the call back over to Cheryl.

36m 7s

Thank you, Kurt. As we look ahead, there are more related uncertainties facing the business and I can recall it almost any point in my career outside of the early days of the COVID pandemic. Consumer confidence is the most critical factor on monitoring as it will be key in determining our sales and pricing. Hold up for the remainder of the spring selling season. I expect we will continue to see many home shoppers taking a wait and see approach to their purchasing decisions until there is greater clarity on the economic outlook. Thankfully, I also believe with confidence that Taylor Morrison has never been in a stronger place organizationally and financially to weather any potential market volatility. We have a strong balance sheet with well over a billion dollars in liquidity. A flexible operating model that is able to quickly flex and pivot given our expertise in those [indiscernible] And to be built production and a stronger than average customer base that is well positioned to move forward with their home buying plans as they regain confidence. As always, I want to end by thanking our team members across the country, especially in unique market environment. You distinguish yourselves with your tenacity, dedication, and service to our homebuyers.

37m 27s

Thank you for all you do. Now let's open the call to your questions. Operator, please provide our participants with instructions.

37m 36s

Thank you very much. With that, let's open the lines for Q and A. And Our first question comes from Paul Przybylski from Wolfe Research. Paul, your line is now open.

37m 54s

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. I guess to start off, Cheryl, can you walk us across the various Texas and Florida markets and provide any color on any positive or or negative demand changes you've seen over the past three to four months?

38m 13s

Of course. How are doing, Paul? Thanks for the question. Absolutely. When I think about Florida, and I'm sure we'll spend some time, and I'll probably ask Eric to chime in on the resell market because I think we have good data. But as you saw, our sales were up year over year in Florida. It was actually one of our strongest year over year beats. I would tell you Orlando continues to be a strong first time market first time buyer market for us. We had very good year over year growth despite the market headwinds. It is one of our lowest ASP in the company. We had some good community openings. I think sales were up, community count were was up, closings were a bit flat. But that was probably at the cost of a little bit of margin given the first time penetration. When I look across the rest of the state, NABLD also had some strong community count growth. And good sales growth. One of the strong continues to be one of the strongest margins in the company along with Sarasota. I would tell you the Esplanade brand, as we talked about in the last quarter, call, we had a lot of new openings that are coming to market.

39m 28s

With our resort lifestyle. We have a lot of new amenities opening And we saw good traffic with that consumer Having said that, certainly not at the highs that we would have historically expected. If I were to move to Texas, let me start with Austin. You know, despite the market turbulence we've seen there, probably now, Paul, for know, going on two years, I think the team did a tremendous job you know, really found some traction. Our can rate was down year over year, which I consider to be a really good signal of how the market is responding. We closed out of [indiscernible] I would say, tough competitive community that you're in. Discounts were generally flat there. There's this market mystique around Austin, so I have high comp confidence that the market coming back, and we're starting to see some some good traction. Dallas holding on to high margin. It's really a whole new business. It's almost hard to Dallas to the prior years. We have outsized growth there this year. And in the coming years with really that business doubling in size. Excited given the size and strength of the Dallas market to see us really show up there in a new differentiated way.

40m 50s

And then I wrap up Texas with Houston. You know, another great story. We've talked a lot about the repositioning of that market to self [indiscernible] ASP down, so as a new consumer. Set. I mean, almost a hundred thousand dollars. Paces up, but discounts down. So all in all, holding their own. But, Eric, maybe some resell color would would be helpful.

41m 14s

Yeah. And Sure. And hi, Paul. Yeah. Just to round out a couple of those thoughts. As we've shared over time, as we think about positioning relative to resales, we've done that study to really understand diving into Florida and Texas specifically in terms of, you know, how many homes would [indiscernible] Truly competitive in the consumer's eyes, and that's been voting kinda 17 to 20%, which we find attractive and competitive. Relative to Texas, as I shared in the prepared comments, the core locations of our portfolio is really helping us out. As we think about being having lower exposure to inventory levels on a new home level. And then maybe bouncing back to Florida briefly, would just say just taking a look at the recent updates on March resale inventory, the months of supply have gone down from January, February to March. So that's encouraging. We're continuing to watch it. But the average months of supply for our markets in Florida has a five handle on So that is still okay. It's it's elevated in the most recent quarters, and so we'll continue to to watch it.

42m 26s

Oh, okay. And then next question, any thoughts on M and A in the current environment? What are you seeing with regard to deal flow? And we've all seen what's happened to public builder valuations. Are you seeing the private builders and what they're asking becoming more rational? And as follow on, just how is the Indianapolis integration coming along?

42m 51s

Yeah. Good couple questions there, Paul. You know, on the m and a front, interestingly enough, I would say the amount of packages have probably picked up. And it it makes sense if you think about just some of the market challenges I think you're seeing some smaller private think it's about time You know, are we seeing kind of some rational differences the bid ask? I think getting better, probably not exactly where it needs to be. So we'll continue to look at packages. And, you know, as we've always said, we have a very high bar. On expectations. But, yeah, I think it's been interesting to see some of the package activity pick up in Greer. Yeah. I think that valuation wise, maybe I expect calibrated to kind of fourth quarter of last year, but maybe not necessarily completely recalibrated.

43m 45s

Not quite there yet. I think those are gonna be deal by deal kind of negotiations to see if any of those start to make sense, but we'll see. As far as Indy, integration's done for the most part. I think we're still know, from a system standpoint, there's probably just some of the last plans that are making its way to the system. Honestly, really excited about what we're seeing there. I think I know I don't I know that we had our best sales quarter in the first quarter. I'd say that was, you know, well in line with our expectations. And as we've talked about before, Paul, you know, we're really looking forward to growing that business in more core markets. ASPs under hundred thousand this year. It's just a really important new position for the company.

44m 34s

Great. Thank you. I appreciate it.

44m 37s

Thank you.

44m 39s

Thank you very much. Our next question comes from Michael Rehaut of JPMorgan. Michael, your line is now open. Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my question. First, I'd love to get if possible, a little bit of better sense of cadence of order trends through the first quarter and April specifically in terms of sales pace? And also to the extent that there has been some volatility obviously in the marketplace, What your approach has been to incentives and discounts and perhaps how those have trended as well throughout the first four months of the year?

45m 29s

Yeah. Hey there, Michael. You know, as far as sales cadence, I'll be honest. A little surprised how consistent the first quarter was. We saw a 10% increase in February over January. We saw in March another 13% over February. I think in the last call, we articulated that we came out the gate in January a little slower. When I look at that compared to last year, which was a stellar first quarter for us, You know, last year, February was down and March was flat. So all in all, I'm very, very pleased with the first quarter sales result. As far as what we look like in April, we expected April to probably be the sales peak month of the year. Obviously, we're not done yet. I'm not sure that will be the case. Know, it's it's actually day by day, week by week, Right? I look at the April results. I can you know, we definitely saw the impact of the liberation day announcement. And the first week, that put, I think, you know, I think that put some folks on the sidelines. We've seen pickup each week since then. Too early to say how we'll finish the month.

46m 54s

I'm thinking it's probably closer to first quarter averages. But right now, like you said, we're looking at sales. We're looking at incentives. We're looking at our offering, not on a weekly or monthly, but probably on a daily basis because the consumer's responding to daily news with everything that's going on in the macro marketplace.

47m 19s

Okay. No. No. No. Appreciate that, Cheryl. I I guess second question, just kind of focusing a little bit on the back half of the year. I guess, the guidance points to roughly a 22.5% gross margin. And I think you know, comments you pointed to a few different drivers of that.

47m 41s

Land inflation, maybe a little bit of [indiscernible] of construction cost inflation. Maybe a little bit higher incentives. If I heard that right, I was wondering if you kind of you know, coming off of 3Q I'm sorry, 2Q gross margin guidance of '23 even, I would assume it's a little bit of each. I was wondering if there was also any estimated impact from Paris as far as you can early as far as you can tell or estimate so far?

48m 13s

And what are kind of the bigger if you have the kind of rank order the drivers of you know, back half guidance versus 2Q, what what might those be?

48m 27s

Hi, Mike. Thanks for your question. There's a lot there. So let me just kind of start, I think. Yeah. From a margin guide for the rest of the year, in our prepared comments, we talked a lot about higher spec penetration to a certain extent in some of the quarters especially as we're looking at Q2. We also have, as we've stated even back in the prior call, Q1 that we've got lot cost inflation over the course of the year. That we're dealing with as well. So when we look at kind of the rest of the year, I think a lot of our quarters are going to be hovering around that 23% level. Given the course based on the fact of how many to be built we can still sell and close for the year, whether it's late Q3 or even throughout Q4. And then the mix of specs as it balances against that. So again, we're going to hover around that 23% probably for the rest of the year. As for tariffs, lots of discussion a lot of noise in the media relative to it. As we're kinda looking at that, and its impact on the year, we've kind of, again, guided to some low single digit house cost inflation for the year.

49m 42s

And so we're starting to see some increases mainly from kind of the metals and aluminum tariff and the 10% kind of blanket [indiscernible] But for the most part, it's all impacting today kind of the metal side or the aluminum side, which is HVAC, which is firebox fireplace boxes, post tension cable. So along the lines of a lot of the metals that are in our products. So we are seeing that. But again, that will not come through until Q4 because there are recent kind of increases that will be going into some of our upcoming starts.

50m 21s

And we'll cover dinner. [indiscernible] The guys that we have out there from a low single digits perspective, The lumber kind of tariff noise, that's on pause. If that comes to fruition, we see that mainly as a 2026 kind of event for us as we kinda look beyond And we say that about balance of the tariffs too. Right, Kurt? I mean, we're not prepared to articulate what kind of impact we might see in '26. My It's good news at '25. Kurt's point is gonna be relatively modest. Until we see how these negotiations with different parts of the world really go. I think it's a little early. So we can talk about that hopefully next quarter. And then the only other comment I would throw on on top of Kirk's comments on the margin profile Like I said, interest rates really are the name of the game on what's what is impacting our incentive line. We see a direct correlation as incentive as rates go up, it costs us a little bit more for those commitments. If rates moderate, you know, we'll see if we end up with a cut or two. And that has a direct impact on the cost of once again these forward commitments if rates go down.

51m 43s

Great. No. Thanks for all the detail. Appreciate it.

51m 47s

Thank you. Have a great day.

51m 50s

Thank you very much. As a reminder, to raise a question, we'll be start from above one. And to remove yourself for any questioning will be star followed by two. Our next question comes from Alan Ratner of Zelman and Associates. Alan, your line is now open. Hey guys, good morning.

52m 7s

Thanks for all the the details thus far, and nice job in the tough tough market environment. Good morning, Cheryl. Thank you.

52m 14s

First question on the pricing environment. I know your guide assumes a pickup in incentives just to clear through some of that spec inventory. I'm just curious if you think the elasticity is still as high today as it was a year or two ago in terms of, you know, are the incremental incentives having the same impact on pulling buyers off the fence? Or are there certain situations where maybe base price adjustments are more in the cards in order to get that buyer? To the finish line.

52m 47s

Yeah. It's a really interesting question, Alan. I think it's almost hard to that on a broad base. I would tell you in certain communities, I'm talking to our sales team, now that we kept get prepared for this call on our cash calls. We hear a little bit of that. I would tell you there's certain communities where the consumer doesn't believe they're gonna hold the mortgage for long. Or it's about price. We have wonderful tools, as you know, in our toolbox We recognize the impact on the monthly mortgage payment by using finance incentives. So, generally, we will always lean in there our TMHF team is tremendous about really personalizing to the individual needs. I would tell you the price you know, adjustment would be the very last thing we would look at. In some communities, we've seen flex dollars where folks can be a little bit more discerning on what's important to them have worked, but I would tell you priority one would be using mortgage incentives. When I think about overall price elasticity, once again, very dependent on customer. Obviously, with our move up, our adult, that's as Eric mentioned in the prepared remarks, the impact of community and home site is a it was in your prepared remarks.

54m 9s

Okay. Was this important as the home itself? And so then we do have some levers to pull. With the the value on that home side. We actually even have one or two communities across the portfolio with the quarter where we saw you know, a little bidding action on the home site. So once again, I'd be it'd be really dangerous to make broad comments across the portfolio because of the diversity we see in our customer set.

54m 42s

Makes sense. No. I I appreciate that, and and thank you for for the thoughts there. Second question, you know, on the land spend, guidance reduction and just kind of thinking through the 20,000 closings target by '28 how should we think about the multiyear impact of spending less on land this year? Does that kind of push the envelope on '26 land spend in order to achieve that? Are you assuming maybe some loosening in the land market, either in terms of pricing or just kind of more ability to to option or bank land, the better terms that will get you to the 20 sum game if you're spending less on land or tying up less land. That probably does have some type of impact on [indiscernible] [indiscernible] Trajectory.

55m 30s

Yeah. Hey, Alan. It's Eric. Hi. How are doing? So I I would start with we're well subscribed. Right? So as you think about 2026, less than a 2% pull in the business plan terms of the land we need. And if you go out to '27, it's above 12%. So those are very normal numbers.

55m 48s

If we're sitting here next year and kind of really slow to this time, then then it's a it's a pretty relevant topic. But certainly not concerned today, as we said, that six and a half years is supply and and still finding ways to elevate that percent control. Those tools are available. So I would say when you think about the access to to financing tools, as well as kind of balancing a little bit of the patience I just mentioned with some opportunism. What's really interesting as you think about the deals that have come for our investment committee to date this year, 66% of the lots have come through with takedown or option structures. And 27% have been finished. And those are not normal numbers for us. Be honest with you. I think the the percent takedowns have really gravitated in prior years more around 25%. And the percent of finished lots available to us is more like 15%. So we are finding some I wouldn't say I'm truly distressed deals, but there's ways to negotiate deals that have beneficial structures to us as we think about feeding out here. So we're kind of balancing that patient and opportunity.

56m 59s

Great. Thank you so much.

57m 4s

Bet. You very much. Our next question comes from Matthew Bouley of Barclays. Matthew, your line is now open.

57m 14s

Good morning. You have Elizabeth Lange on for Matt today. Thank you for taking the questions. I wanted to or kind of continue that conversation around land. Would you offer any thoughts on, like, what you're actually seeing in the market today in terms of you know, deals that you're looking at right now? You know, are you seeing changes for what developers are offering given the uncertainty, or is it kind of, know, you're not seeing too many changes at the time?

57m 48s

I I would suggest what we've seen to date is is the opportunity to negotiate terms, more favorable terms. That really allow us all to kind of look at what's transacting today in the market. What we project over the coming months. And so like I said, not an extreme level of distress, but a little bit lower demand or froth in the market, which is just enabling the ability to negotiate terms and make sure that we're on insulating ourselves against anything that that we don't foresee in in the coming months. So really, terms would be the short term answer.

58m 25s

Okay. Thank you. [indiscernible] touching on gross margins, I know that you kind of mentioned that you're expecting to kind of sit around 23% through the second half. Would you mind talking a little bit about what you're expecting from your spec to to be built mix? Are you kind of expecting the spec to kind of peak a little bit more in 2Q and then taper off? Or, you know, any color you can offer around that would be helpful.

58m 54s

Yeah. Hello, Elizabeth.

58m 55s

Yeah. I think we had said that, I think, in q one, our spec closings were roughly 58% And I think we also alluded to that our spec penetration would be higher in Q2 as well. So we're seeing just with our spec inventory that we have available in some of the you know, the pressures from a competitive perspective out there. We need to lean in a little bit on some some of the specs that we have out there. And so we the the penetration for q two will continue to be probably in the upper 50s, kind of 60% kind of range. As we sit here today.

59m 37s

Okay. Thank you very much.

59m 43s

Thank you very much. Our next question comes from Mike Dahl of RBC. Mike, your line is now open. Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions.

59m 55s

First question, I want to follow-up on the gross margin cadence because the step down from the strong performance in 1Q to 2Q in particular is pretty meaningful. So, this is a follow-up to a prior question, but just trying to pin down a little bit more on what the magnitude of the increase in incentives is that you've already seen over the course of the last couple of months versus in that 2Q and beyond guide, how how much is atory in terms of what you haven't yet seen but expect to have to do to to close those homes.

1h 34s

Yes, Mike. Good question, and thanks Yeah. As we kind of alluded to, the margin in q two is is coming down relative to kinda where we've been. In large part due to the increased penetration of our stocks. And what I would say and based on the market that what we're experiencing today, as Cheryl alluded to, we had to lean in a little bit more heavily on on the incentive line. To kinda help monetize or to help transact those homes. You know, we were again, we haven't necessarily given the exact kind of discount per se. But I would for q two, that's the underlying assumption is that it's a higher penetration of additional specs coupled with the fact that we'd have a couple of townhome communities that we have an increased penetration on the lower margin as well that are coming in there. The other thing that I would allude to relative to the second quarter is we did have some pull forward from some to be builts that we were anticipating closing in Q2 that eventually closed in Q1. Which is part of that beat in Q1. And I would also say that from a sell to close perspective for Q1, we ended up the mix of that change from what we thought from our original guide where we closed and sold more higher margin spec units in q one, which is a natural fallout now for Q2.

1h 1m 58s

Got it.

1h 1m 59s

Okay.

1h 1m 59s

Alright. Appreciate that, Kurt. And and then the second question is maybe just also following up on your April comments and want to make sure that we're clear. It sounded like you know, your your your comments on April, not sure if it will be better than March and previously assumed it would be peak, but then you said something about maybe it's close to the averages for 1Q. Maybe just a little more clarification. Should we think about April as then being you know, literally just if you sold a little over 3,000 homes in in one q, April's you know, lining up something around a thousand. And then seasonally, I think yeah, you'd normally still come down off that. So just how how you're thinking about the the seasonality dynamic?

1h 2m 48s

Yeah. We'll see how the the month ends, Mike. But, yeah, you you have it right. I said that given the volatility, coming out of the beginning of the month, and then you saw some interest rate volatility. There's there's a mix. It's been a choppy month. There's no denying it now. The room with us today is our division president from Atlanta. They just came off their best week for the year. So we have quite a bit of you know, range across the business. But I would tell you that where we saw this kind of consistent rise through the quarter, week over week, month over month, April's been choppier. No real surprise given the headline. And the further we get away from a kind of a macro event, like week one, we see maybe savings pick up. I expect after last night maybe there's a calming influence on the market, and we'll finish strong. I just until the month is done, I don't know exactly how we're gonna finish, but I if I were to predict, I would say it'd be close to the average q one. Okay.

1h 3m 56s

Makes sense. Thank you.

1h 3m 58s

Thanks.

1h 4m

Thank you very much. Our next question comes from Kyle Reichardt of BTIG. Karl, your line is now open. Thanks. Good morning, Nice to talk to you. Thanks for taking my questions. [indiscernible] I Cheryl, you mentioned that you hadn't seen an environment like this in your career, which is kinda funny. I I wanted to try to pin down the sort of what you're seeing the lack of urgency is and the buyers moving to the sidelines.

1h 4m 30s

Do you think this is more related to worries about job than income more worried consumers more worried about costs, what goes out the door, living expenses, or something more related to investments, savings, worry about the nest egg for the future. If you had to sort of pin down the concerns among those who are who have lost their urgency, where would you where would you stick the pin? [indiscernible] To all of you or above. You know, Carl, it's interesting. I was actually quite encouraged when I was meeting with the teams last week, kind of going through our pre calls Encouraged upon the feedback of traffic as there's folks kind of hanging around the hoop. And, clearly, there's aspiration for home ownership across all of the consumer set. But as you look across each of the demographics, it is different. You take those first timers. It's absolutely you know, can we afford it? [indiscernible] it's a it's a monthly payment against their their expenses. And life has just gotten more expensive no matter what category you wanna talk about. As we move up the food chain, you know, we're just dealing with a little bit more buyer.

1h 5m 52s

And they all the noise that's going on, if it's inflation, stagnation, are we going into a recession? I mean, what's happening to weight? It's just it's a lot. And so they're just trying to understand how it impacts them. The good news with the diversity of our product offerings, our communities, I think when they find the right house, and a lot as Eric discussed in his prepared remarks, I think we get them there. So and, by the way, I think when they get some level of stability, we we're gonna see a big ramp up. Because they're they're still showing up. There's still lots of interest, but I just think it's just taking a lot just taking a little bit longer to actually find the dotted line, but I would put all of your categories in the mix.

1h 6m 44s

Alright. Thank you, sir. I appreciate that.

1h 6m 45s

And then you talked a bit before about Florida and Texas. Wanted to ask about the West where the orders were down, I think 25%. I know stores were down 10%. I know the comp was tough. I'm assuming there's more concentration of entry level product in the West But can you talk a little bit about why those trends were softer [indiscernible] the other two markets again? I'm assuming mix is part of it, but maybe just give us some detail there. Thanks.

1h 7m 11s

Yeah. No. It's a fair question. So thanks for the question. I think, first of all, the year over year compares in the West really, really tough. We had some really strong strong months last year. I look at Phoenix, you know, q one, except for q one last year, was actually the best quarter. But slightly down year over year with a nice margin beat. So I think they did a really nice job of kind of managing the pace and price discussion. And we moved to California. You know, generally, inventory has not been as large a concern, but we have seen some inventory buildup. And I think you just have a buyer there that's wanting to negotiate. Sales were still up year over year. Some of that was community count growth. SAC, that would be more the bay. Sorry. SAC, I would tell you sales were slightly down, you know, modest disc discounts modestly up. Margin was up year over year. But the overall market in SaaS was off to on the month somewhere between 1015%. I think some of that was just those, the federal layoffs kinda looming, hanging over folks' head. Southern California, minimal resell competition.

1h 8m 39s

Traffic, not bad. But we have seen aggressive new home incentives in the Some hesitation earlier with the cultural buyer But then I look at Orange County, still very, very strong. If I were to round out kind of our markets, just to be thorough, I would say Denver was a little bit more impacted by inventory and I would put Denver and probably Portland as our two most rate sensitive markets. You can almost see it to the day. Having said that, I was really encouraged by the recent traction in Denver. Outlets for upsells were significant gap. And we have good margin. Baked is very steady. Excited about the Esplanade community coming to the market that will happen later this year. That discount's flat. Very different business for us. ASP profile, very, very good compared to what we were doing last year. So the mix of communities is good. But if I look at the kind of the Las Vegas strip worker today, I think in this environment, tougher to get them by here. We talked a little bit about Indy. I'd rounded up with the Southeast. Charlotte, Raleigh, strong community count growth. Sales and closings up, low can rates, discounts flat to slightly up, Charlotte enjoys one of our division's highest margins across the business, evolving land strategy, [indiscernible] well, we've really positioned repositioned that business.

1h 10m 19s

The strong community count growth and unit growth. So I expect that one to be one of our more consistent markets. As I look at each quarter across the year. So, hopefully, that helps.

1h 10m 31s

That is great color. Thank you so much, Cheryl. Thanks, everyone.

1h 10m 35s

Thank you.

1h 10m 37s

Thank you very much. Our next question comes from Jay McCanless from Wedbush. Jay, your line is now open.

1h 10m 47s

Good morning everyone. Just one question for me. Sheryl, thank you for the color around sales pace thus far in April, but could you talk about cancellations I know cancellations for 1Q were up a little versus last year, but we are interested to see how they've trended so far in April.

1h 11m 5s

Yeah. You know, it's an it's a really interesting question, Jay. It's hard to to be completely accurate here, and I'll explain why. I mean, I would tell you that once again around the liberation day with all this stuff happening, We did see a slight tick up in cans but we always do at the beginning of a new quarter. So I don't wanna and I say, slight tick up in cans. So I don't wanna overrespond. My instincts are it's gonna level out like it does throughout the balance of the quarter. But, you know, I think you always have this strong push to the finish at the end of every quarter and kinda saw that here. And if I were to tell you the absolute numbers today, they're up slightly. Okay.

1h 11m 54s

That's all I had. Thank you for taking my question.

1h 11m 57s

Thank you.

1h 11m 59s

Thank you very much. Our next question comes from Buckhorn. Raymond James. Buck, your line is now open.

1h 12m 7s

Hey, thanks again. Good morning. Congratulations. Quick one for me. Have you guys seen any immigration enforcement actions recently that have either affected, your communities directly or or indirectly?

1h 12m 22s

Yes. But not to our communities directly. But I think the first one we heard about was in Alabama. The second one well, we don't build there. The second one we heard about was in Atlanta. I think there was a morning where there was, you know, probably a good half dozen communities impacted. None of them have been ours. So to date, we can't talk about what the future brings. But today, Tim Morrison hasn't had any impact in any of our communities. Gotcha.

1h 12m 53s

Appreciate that color. Thank you so much for that. And also just thinking through the next couple of weeks ahead, student loan debt collections are poised to resume here in May. And kind of coincides with your push to clear out some of your finished specs, which are [indiscernible] presume, maybe more entry level weighted.

1h 13m 13s

How are you thinking through potential pressures on entry level consumers? Or have you thought about the student loan issue [indiscernible] how that affects your incentive levels to clear out those finished specs?

1h 13m 30s

Yeah. No. It's it's an interesting question. We're always tracking it. Obviously, this isn't first time we've seen this noise in the system. We've never really had issues with student loan debt on any of our customers. Obviously, when we look at our first time buyers, they're just in a little bit different place than I would say true for the most part, a true entry level. I look at the room, that they have, but you might recall that over the years, we've talked a fair amount about the room that our customers have between what they qualify for, what they've got, what their rate is versus what they could qualify for. We have, over the years, seen a little bit of compression, obviously, as rates have moved up. With our customers. But when I look across both our conventional we're still over 400 basis points of room per commit conventional buyers and just under 200 basis points of room with our FHA buyers. So that's a little tighter, so it would be naive to say that some them might not recognize an impact. But I would tell you, to date, we've really not seen it, and I still think that the consumers kind of, you know, not stretching themselves to the max.

1h 14m 51s

And so that's why we're still seeing some room even with the FHA buyer.

1h 14m 56s

Cheryl, back to our surveys. You know, when when we ask people, you know, if you're hesitating, why might you be hesitating? And back to, you know, one of your first questions in terms of non permanent residents, only 1% of our shoppers said that that's something to contemplate. So I'm not not jumping off the page.

1h 15m 13s

Didn't see anybody say student that specifically was a concern or hesitation.

1h 15m 17s

And what else I found fascinating is that in March, when you look at [indiscernible] Yeah. Which is so interesting more than any other group. Right? Yeah.

1h 15m 30s

Very helpful color. Appreciate the, the thoughts.

1h 15m 32s

Again, congrats. Good luck.

1h 15m 36s

Thank you so much.

1h 15m 38s

Thank you very much. Our next question comes from Ken Zena of Seaport Research Partners. Ken, your line is now open.

1h 15m 49s

Good morning, everybody.

1h 15m 51s

I'm interested if you could comment at hello.

1h 15m 56s

If you could comment on what you think your year end units in production and community counts gonna be? Like, you know, obviously, it's it's down a little bit now. You're clearing out some specs. So I'm just interested in how that cadence how you're thinking about that?

1h 16m 12s

The year end units under production? Yes, I can.

1h 16m 16s

Sure. Thanks for the question. Yes. As we sit here today, we're at 8,032 units, and with the continued cycle time kind of focus of our teams, and clearing up some of our anticipated specs over the course of the year, we would expect that number to probably moderate down a little bit further. I don't really have an exact number per se, for you, but I would say it's gonna continue to moderate down further. Based on the cycle time reductions and our focus on making sure our balance sheet is in the right position relative to speculative inventory.

1h 16m 52s

Appreciate that. And I guess the path to whatever that number is, it's not, right, a targeted number yet. Trying to think about your decisions around what you see in orders. Given Sheryl's comments about you know, a lack of clarity. Volatility, consistent with the stocks, But really how you're going to be measuring your right, your starts versus your orders as you're declining back units? Because usually, take up starts first quarters in the second quarter. It seems there's a couple of different moving parts. You pretty much get to tie your starts to orders going forward. Is that what you're thinking about? [indiscernible] we I think we've kinda articulate pretty much every quarter is that we're gonna align starts to our sales pace. Now we may lean in at certain times of the year relative to when we expect those deliveries to come off, so to speak, I. E, like in the spring selling. Season time period? But we will carefully kinda manage kind of the starts relative to what we're seeing [indiscernible] Thank you very much.

1h 18m 11s

Alright. You have a good one.

1h 18m 12s

You. Take care.

1h 18m 14s

Our next question comes from Alex Barron of Housing Research Center. Alex, your line is now open.

1h 18m 23s

Yes. Thank you, everybody.

1h 18m 26s

My first question is around the topic of price cuts, just your general philosophy is it more in response to what other builders do? Is it more in terms of you know, finished spec that maybe haven't sold for so many days? Is it mainly on specs and not on bill to order? Like, what is your general approach to price cuts?

1h 18m 53s

Yeah. It's hard to ignore what's happening in the market around you. But as we discussed, Alex, we'll always lean in with our mortgage incentives, and that would be inclusive of forward commitments or maybe finished inventory as for the proprietary program that we discussed in the past. [indiscernible] that might not deliver for a few months. So we'll always start there. But once again, I think one of our differentiators is our ability work with each customer. And understand personalize, understand their needs. Obviously, when you start cutting prices, you're having an impact on your backlog and you know, we look at ways to get keep equity to homeowners versus take take it away. But we've talked about in the past that, you know, there's a there's a real difference we would never consider I can't imagine we would consider price cuts on our TV bills because that's generally where you'll see our greatest margin and and greatest strength. But there quite a range of spec performance, and I would say that those are generally impacted by what we're seeing in the competitive set. And the further out that you move in the marketplace out more fringe. I would say the more pressure and the higher the incentive side.

1h 20m 16s

Got it. Thank you. And then, on a brighter note, I really like the esplanade and what you guys are doing and what you explained to us in the investor day. So can you talk about how many communities are currently, you know, open and what the outlook is for that over the next twelve months, let's say. And versus a year ago just to kind of see the growth pattern there?

1h 20m 41s

Yeah. I mean, as we talked about the investor day, when you look at the actual closings as we expect, we get out to 2028. We expect our actual closings to almost double. Now that one fee percent, you know, that's obviously based on the the penetration, but we'll see the whole move the whole business move. But in specifically, we'll see the active adult double in total volume. Honestly, when we look around the portfolio, we have a number of new communities that are coming to market this year. It just come to market. We have a lot of new amenities that are under construction. So we are equally excited, Alex. So I appreciate your enthusiasm. It's a key part of the overall business. And, I think you'll continue to watch us when I open in in part you know, all parts of the country.

1h 21m 35s

Think, Cheryl, in order of magnitude, what we shared is we about 35 or so outlets open and about 80 some bus in the pipeline that are incubating.

1h 21m 44s

So that's the order of magnitude that Charles referenced. [indiscernible] Got it. Well, best of luck, everybody. Thank you.

1h 21m 54s

You so much. Take care.

1h 21m 57s

Thank you very much. We currently have no questions. So I'd like to hand back to Cheryl Palmer for any further remarks.

1h 22m 4s

Well, thank you all for joining us on our Q1 call. We will look very forward to speaking to you at the end of the second quarter. Take care.

1h 22m 13s

As we conclude today's call, we'd like to thank everyone for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.

Key Insights

TMHC delivered 3,048 homes in Q1 at an average price of $600,000, generating $1.8 billion in home closings revenue (up 12% YoY), with an adjusted home closings gross margin of 24.8% (up 80 bps YoY) and adjusted EPS up 25% YoY; book value per share grew 16% to ~$58.
For 2024, TMHC now expects to deliver 13,000–13,500 homes (down from prior guidance of 13,500–14,000), with a home closings gross margin around 23% (low end of prior guidance), and average closing price for the year between $590,000–$600,000; Q2 guidance is for ~3,200 deliveries at a 23% gross margin and ~$585,000 average price.
Spec home closings rose to 58% in Q1 (record 27% sold and closed in the quarter), with spec penetration expected to remain high (~60%) in Q2, leading to higher incentives and lower margins; finished inventory at quarter end was elevated at 2.4 homes per community.
Land investment for 2024 is reduced to $2.4–$2.6 billion (from ~$2.6 billion prior), with a focus on more favorable option structures and disciplined underwriting; owned and controlled lot inventory stands at 86,266 lots (6.5 years supply), with 59% controlled via options/off-balance sheet.
April sales pace has been choppy due to macro volatility, with consumer hesitation driven by affordability concerns and economic uncertainty; cancellations ticked up slightly post-quarter but are expected to normalize; TMHC remains confident in its long-term goal of 20,000 closings by 2028, prioritizing returns and balance sheet health over growth for growth’s sake.

Recent Transcripts

Q1 revenue rose 12% with resilient margins, but guidance lowered amid macro uncertainty.

Q4 results exceeded guidance with strong revenue, margins, and robust 2025 outlook.

Income Statement

Revenue

	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
Revenue	$6.1B	$7.5B	$8.2B	$7.4B	$8.2B
Cost of Revenue	$5.1B	$6B	$6.1B	$5.6B	$6.2B
Gross Profit	$1B	$1.5B	$2.1B	$1.8B	$2B
Gross Profit %	17%	21%	25%	24%	24%
R&D Expenses	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

Revenue

$6.1B

$7.5B

$8.2B

$7.4B

$8.2B

Cost of Revenue

$5.1B

$6B

$6.1B

$5.6B

$6.2B

Gross Profit

$1B

$1.5B

$2.1B

$1.8B

$2B

Gross Profit %

17%

21%

25%

24%

R&D Expenses

Cash Flow

Net Income

	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
Net Income	$250M	$682M	$1.1B	$769M	$887M
Dep. & Amort.	$37M	$40M	$34M	$33M	$41M
Def. Tax	$51M	$87M	$84M	-$169K	-$8.4M
Stock Comp.	$32M	$20M	$27M	$26M	$22M
Chg. in WC	$714M	-$496M	-$180M	-$49M	-$848M

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

Net Income

$250M

$682M

$1.1B

$769M

$887M

Dep. & Amort.

$37M

$40M

$34M

$33M

$41M

Def. Tax

$51M

$87M

$84M

-$169K

-$8.4M

Stock Comp.

$32M

$20M

$27M

$26M

$22M

Chg. in WC

$714M

-$496M

-$180M

-$49M

-$848M

Balance Sheet

Cash

	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
Cash	$533M	$833M	$724M	$799M	$487M
ST Investments	$5.3M	$2.1M	$1.1M	$0	$0
Cash & ST Inv.	$538M	$835M	$726M	$799M	$487M
Receivables	$96M	$151M	$192M	$185M	$218M
Inventory	$5.3B	$5.5B	$5.4B	$5.5B	$6.2B

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

Cash

$533M

$833M

$724M

$799M

$487M

ST Investments

$5.3M

$2.1M

$1.1M

Cash & ST Inv.

$538M

$835M

$726M

$799M

$487M

Receivables

$96M

$151M

$192M

$185M

$218M

Inventory

$5.3B

$5.5B

$5.4B

$5.5B

$6.2B

Go Deeper

Financial information provided by Financial Modeling Prep. Options data provided by Unusual Whales. Live transcripts provided by Quartr. Reported revenue and EPS data from Earnings powered by FinChat.io. All data is provided for informational purposes only, and is not intended for trading purposes or financial, investment, tax, legal, accounting or other advice. · See all tickers.

Overview
Latest News
Earnings
Income Statement
Cash Flow
Balance Sheet
Related

Earnings

Report Date

Apr 23, 2025

Reported Revenue

1.9B

Miss -13.28%

Avg 1d Change

2.37%

Report Period

Q1 2025

Reported EPS

2.2

Beat +17.84%

Implied Move 1d

7.73%

Transcript

12m 39s

13m 53s

15m 30s

17m 14s

18m 47s

20m 29s

22m 14s

23m 30s

23m 53s

25m 8s

26m 36s

28m 7s

29m 45s

31m 26s

32m 56s

34m 54s

36m 7s

37m 27s

Thank you for all you do. Now let's open the call to your questions. Operator, please provide our participants with instructions.

37m 36s

Thank you very much. With that, let's open the lines for Q and A. And Our first question comes from Paul Przybylski from Wolfe Research. Paul, your line is now open.

37m 54s

38m 13s

39m 28s

40m 50s

41m 14s

42m 26s

42m 51s

43m 45s

44m 34s

Great. Thank you. I appreciate it.

44m 37s

Thank you.

44m 39s

45m 29s

46m 54s

47m 19s

47m 41s

48m 13s

And what are kind of the bigger if you have the kind of rank order the drivers of you know, back half guidance versus 2Q, what what might those be?

48m 27s

49m 42s

50m 21s

51m 43s

Great. No. Thanks for all the detail. Appreciate it.

51m 47s

Thank you. Have a great day.

51m 50s

52m 7s

Thanks for all the the details thus far, and nice job in the tough tough market environment. Good morning, Cheryl. Thank you.

52m 14s

52m 47s

54m 9s

54m 42s

55m 30s

55m 48s

56m 59s

Great. Thank you so much.

57m 4s

Bet. You very much. Our next question comes from Matthew Bouley of Barclays. Matthew, your line is now open.

57m 14s

57m 48s

58m 25s

58m 54s

Yeah. Hello, Elizabeth.

58m 55s

59m 37s

Okay. Thank you very much.

59m 43s

Thank you very much. Our next question comes from Mike Dahl of RBC. Mike, your line is now open. Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions.

59m 55s

1h 34s

1h 1m 58s

Got it.

1h 1m 59s

Okay.

1h 1m 59s

1h 2m 48s

1h 3m 56s

Makes sense. Thank you.

1h 3m 58s

Thanks.

1h 4m

1h 4m 30s

1h 5m 52s

1h 6m 44s

Alright. Thank you, sir. I appreciate that.

1h 6m 45s

1h 7m 11s

1h 8m 39s

1h 10m 19s

The strong community count growth and unit growth. So I expect that one to be one of our more consistent markets. As I look at each quarter across the year. So, hopefully, that helps.

1h 10m 31s

That is great color. Thank you so much, Cheryl. Thanks, everyone.

1h 10m 35s

Thank you.

1h 10m 37s

Thank you very much. Our next question comes from Jay McCanless from Wedbush. Jay, your line is now open.

1h 10m 47s

1h 11m 5s

1h 11m 54s

That's all I had. Thank you for taking my question.

1h 11m 57s

Thank you.

1h 11m 59s

Thank you very much. Our next question comes from Buckhorn. Raymond James. Buck, your line is now open.

1h 12m 7s

1h 12m 22s

1h 12m 53s

1h 13m 13s

1h 13m 30s

1h 14m 51s

And so that's why we're still seeing some room even with the FHA buyer.

1h 14m 56s

1h 15m 13s

Didn't see anybody say student that specifically was a concern or hesitation.

1h 15m 17s

And what else I found fascinating is that in March, when you look at [indiscernible] Yeah. Which is so interesting more than any other group. Right? Yeah.

1h 15m 30s

Very helpful color. Appreciate the, the thoughts.

1h 15m 32s

Again, congrats. Good luck.

1h 15m 36s

Thank you so much.

1h 15m 38s

Thank you very much. Our next question comes from Ken Zena of Seaport Research Partners. Ken, your line is now open.

1h 15m 49s

Good morning, everybody.

1h 15m 51s

I'm interested if you could comment at hello.

1h 15m 56s

1h 16m 12s

The year end units under production? Yes, I can.

1h 16m 16s

1h 16m 52s

1h 18m 11s

Alright. You have a good one.

1h 18m 12s

You. Take care.

1h 18m 14s

Our next question comes from Alex Barron of Housing Research Center. Alex, your line is now open.

1h 18m 23s

Yes. Thank you, everybody.

1h 18m 26s

1h 18m 53s

1h 20m 16s

1h 20m 41s

1h 21m 35s

Think, Cheryl, in order of magnitude, what we shared is we about 35 or so outlets open and about 80 some bus in the pipeline that are incubating.

1h 21m 44s

So that's the order of magnitude that Charles referenced. [indiscernible] Got it. Well, best of luck, everybody. Thank you.

1h 21m 54s

You so much. Take care.

1h 21m 57s

Thank you very much. We currently have no questions. So I'd like to hand back to Cheryl Palmer for any further remarks.

1h 22m 4s

Well, thank you all for joining us on our Q1 call. We will look very forward to speaking to you at the end of the second quarter. Take care.

1h 22m 13s

As we conclude today's call, we'd like to thank everyone for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.

Key Insights

TMHC delivered 3,048 homes in Q1 at an average price of $600,000, generating $1.8 billion in home closings revenue (up 12% YoY), with an adjusted home closings gross margin of 24.8% (up 80 bps YoY) and adjusted EPS up 25% YoY; book value per share grew 16% to ~$58.
For 2024, TMHC now expects to deliver 13,000–13,500 homes (down from prior guidance of 13,500–14,000), with a home closings gross margin around 23% (low end of prior guidance), and average closing price for the year between $590,000–$600,000; Q2 guidance is for ~3,200 deliveries at a 23% gross margin and ~$585,000 average price.
Spec home closings rose to 58% in Q1 (record 27% sold and closed in the quarter), with spec penetration expected to remain high (~60%) in Q2, leading to higher incentives and lower margins; finished inventory at quarter end was elevated at 2.4 homes per community.
Land investment for 2024 is reduced to $2.4–$2.6 billion (from ~$2.6 billion prior), with a focus on more favorable option structures and disciplined underwriting; owned and controlled lot inventory stands at 86,266 lots (6.5 years supply), with 59% controlled via options/off-balance sheet.
April sales pace has been choppy due to macro volatility, with consumer hesitation driven by affordability concerns and economic uncertainty; cancellations ticked up slightly post-quarter but are expected to normalize; TMHC remains confident in its long-term goal of 20,000 closings by 2028, prioritizing returns and balance sheet health over growth for growth’s sake.

Taylor Morrison Home Corporation Price & Performance (TMHC)

Stock Performance

Open

Market Cap

Year High

High

P/E Ratio

Year Low

Low

Dividend Yield

Volume

Latest News

What's Happening

Peers

Earnings

Report Date

Reported Revenue

Avg 1d Change

Report Period

Reported EPS

Implied Move 1d

Transcript

Key Insights

Recent Transcripts

Income Statement

Cash Flow

Balance Sheet

Go Deeper

Related

Latest News

Go Deeper

Recent Transcripts

Earnings

Report Date

Reported Revenue

Avg 1d Change

Report Period

Reported EPS

Implied Move 1d

Transcript

Key Insights