Teekay Tankers Ltd. Price & Performance (TNK)

Joining me on the call today for the Q and A session is Brody Spears, Teekay Corporation and Teekay Tanker's CFO Ryan Hamilton, our Teekay, Finance and Corporate Development and Christian Waldergree, our Director of Research. Starting on Slide three of the presentation, we will cover Teekay Tanko's recent highlights. Teekay Tankers reported adjusted net income of $52,000,000 or $1.5 per share the fourth quarter and for full year 2024 adjusted net income of $355,000,000 or $10.31 per share. [indiscernible] softer than expected spot rates towards the end of the year, the company still generated $69,000,000 in free cash flow in the fourth quarter and $415,000,000 for the year. In the last few weeks, as part of our opportunistic approach to ongoing fleet management, we sold two two thousand and nine built Suezmaxes and one two thousand and six built LR2 for a combined $96,000,000 Two of these vessels have already been delivered to the buyers while the third is expected to be delivered by mid March. Upon completion of its current voyage. Including the previously announced two vessels we sold during Q4, we have sold a total of five two thousand and five to 2,009 build vessels for combined proceeds of $160,000,000 resulting in expected book gains on sale of nearly $60,000,000 Further, I'm pleased to report that just Teekay, we lifted Supix and signed an MOA to acquire a modern LR2 tanker which we expect to close in the second quarter.

These sales and purchase are part of our ongoing fleet management and fleet renewal plan. Where we naturally sell older vessels and acquire more modern tonnage over time the opportunity is right, In addition, we have now completed CNK's acquisition of the Teekay Australia business and the transfer of all the remaining management services companies not previously owned by T and K. These transactions transformed Teekay Tankers into a fully integrated shipping company and the sole operating platform within the Teekay Group. We also made a passive investment in Artmore Shipping Corporation, where we now own 5.1% of the company. Historically, the Teekay has had investments in adjacent sectors, to our medium sized crude tanker business. Including some exposure to the MR sector in the past. We believe that this investment represents good value in the product sector. Looking at our first quarter to date spot rates, our rates book to date are slightly below our fourth quarter levels, but remain volatile and trending upward based on the latest Clarksons report spot rates. Although these rates are down from historical highs from 2023 and 2024, current rates are well above our fleet's free cash flow breakeven levels, meaning Teekay Tankers continues to generate substantial free cash flow and earnings in the current market environment.

We will discuss the drivers of the market in subsequent slides.

Lastly, Teekay Tankers declared its quarterly fixed dividend of $0.25 per share payable in March. For the full year, we have paid $3 per share in dividends. Moving to Slide four, look at recent developments in the spot market. We've Chinese auto demand during the latter part of the year weighed on the VLC Sea Markets, on Suezmax and Aframax spot rates. While seasonal weather delays failed to give any uplift on to the tanker market, during the winter months. Rates were still above long term average levels and well above TNK's pre cash flow breakeven of approximately $14,300 per day. Average Q1 to date spot tanker rates are slightly below fourth quarter levels, but have been trending upwards in recent weeks. Imposition of additional U. S. Sanctions on 153 tankers servicing the Russian oil trade has increased rate volatility. Particularly in the larger crude tanker asset classes as replacement shipping capacity was booked for transporting oil to China and India. In addition, based crude oil has been attractively priced when compared to Middle Eastern crude in recent weeks. Which has opened the arbitrage for the long haul movement of oil, from the Atlantic Basin to Asia. This has been positive for ton mile demand in the near term particularly for VLCC and Suezmax tankers.

Turning to Slide five, we look at some of the geopolitical events that are currently unfolding which seems to change day by day and there are likely more questions and answers on how things will progress over the course of this year.

As highlighted by the slide, there are an unusually large number of factors this year could influence the direction of the tanker market. I won't go into every single point in detail, but it's worth highlighting three of the key factors which we believe could impact the tanker market.

Depending on how they unfold in the coming weeks and months. Firstly, the red highlights the current conflicts in Ukraine. And The Middle East, Starting with the war in Ukraine, the situation has become extremely dynamic in recent weeks. While we do not know how events will unfold, or continue to unfold in the future, we do know that there could be wide ranging consequences for both tankers on mile demand and the future of the shadow fleet ships that are currently servicing Russian oil exports should a peace agreement be reached. In the meantime, we can envision scenarios whereby sanctions against [indiscernible] either tighten dilution depending on how discussions between the various parties develop. For example, we understand that the EU is planning a new round of sanctions next week which will will include another 73 ships being added to the sanctions list. These sanctions could further impact Russia's ability to export oil as evidenced by the last round of sanctions in January where logistical constraints meant that India and China had to source replacement barrels from the Middle East and Atlantic Basin on non sanctioned vessels to make up for the shortfall in Russian supply. In the Middle East, the recent cease fire between Israel and Hamas has led to the Houthi group in Yemen pledging to stop attacks on shipping.

This may eventually result in the resumption of tanker transits through the Red Sea region which depending on how things unfold could impact seaborne trade patterns and reduce tanker ton mile demand. However, the situation is fragile and for the time being, we expect that owners like Teekay, and Cargo Interest will continue to stay away from the region until there's more certainty around the safety of crews, vessels and cargoes. Secondly, the yellow highlights the impact on of sanctions on crude oil exports from Russia, Iran and Venezuela as well as the fleet of ships servicing them I've already touched on the situation with regards to Russia but another key development this year is the return of The United States maximum pressure campaign on Iran in a bid to reduce Iranian oil exports to zero, In 2024, Iranian crude oil exports averaged 1,500,000 barrels per day majority of which went to China. Tariff sanctions on marine and crude oil exports could therefore lead China to import oil from other sources via the compliant fleet. Which would be positive for tanker demand. Finally, the blue highlights the potential impact of tariffs on oil trade flows.

In early February, The U. S. Announced 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada with a lower 10% tariff on Canadian energy. The implementation of these tariffs was suspended for thirty days. Should these tariffs come into force, we could see Canada and Mexico some of their crude exports away from The U. S. To other regions such as Europe and Asia, while The U. S. Refiners may have to find replacement barrels. From further afield both of which would be positive for tankers on Milamet. Regarding Canadian exports, we know that their plans commence nighttime loading from the Trans Mountain pipeline Terminal in Vancouver later this year.

Which would allow the terminal to reach 28 to 30 Apermax cargo per month compared to 22 to 24 at Prest It is difficult to predict 2025 impacts, but due political uncertainty and changes to seaborne oil trade patterns usually increase tanker market volatility and supply chain inefficiencies. Turning to Slide six, look at the underlying tanker demand and supply factors, which we believe continue to support a balanced market, notwithstanding the geopolitical events that are just tough stuff. Starting with Tanger demand drivers, global oil consumption is projected to grow by 1,300,000 barrels per day in 2025 Virtually all of this demand growth is being driven by non OEC countries led by Asia. Global oil supply is also set to grow with production from non OPEC plus countries set to increase by 1,500,000 barrels per day in 2025 led by United States Brazil, Norway, Canada and Guyana. Given that these sources of oil are mostly in the Atlantic Basin, while oil demand growth is focused on Asia, we expect an increase in long haul crude oil movements from West which should boost tangleton miles demand. The OPEC plus Group could also provide additional seaborne transportation volumes should they start unwinding their voluntary oil supply cuts from April 2025 onwards consistent with the most recently announced plan.

Turning to fleet supply, midsize tanker fleet growth is expected to remain relatively low in the medium term, As shown by the chart on the bottom right of the slide, the current size of the tanker order book is relatively similar the fleet of older tankers turning 8x20s during the same time period. With three zero seven midsized tankers currently on order for delivery, through 2028 Teekay, compared with three twelve existing midsized tankers that will turn 20 over the same timeframe. In addition, there are three zero one midsize tankers, which are already over the age of 20. The majority of which operate as part of the shadow fleet, servicing sanctioned trains. And which are facing increased scrutiny from U. S. And European authorities. In sum, assuming no scrapping, we could have over 600 midsized tankers or approximately 30% of the fleet over the age of 20 years old in three years' time, which is unprecedented and for comparison at the end of twenty twenty one, there were around 115 midsized tankers over the age of 20. This illustrates the scale of the excess fleet supply that could be phased out should trade normalize. While it is difficult to predict what will ultimately happen with the shadow fleet, And it is uncertain when we may see an uptick in vessel recycling we believe that with a manageable order book, a lag of available shipyard capacity until 2028 Teekay, and tanker fleet which is currently the oldest in well over twenty years tanker fleet growth will remain at low levels over the next [indiscernible] In sum, a wide range of potential outcomes from the various current issues impacting global trade security and energy we remain encouraged by the underlying Tango supply and demand fundamentals which we believe point towards a balanced tanker market over the medium term.

Turning to Slide seven, we highlight how Teekay Tankers is well positioned any market conditions With our high operating leverage and a low free cash flow breakeven of $14,300 per day, we can generate significant cash flow in almost any market conditions. To emphasize, every $5,000 an increase in spot rates above our breakeven produces $2.15 per share of annual free cash flow. Or over 5% on a free cash flow yield basis Combined with our strong balance sheet, we have built optionality and capacity to maximize shareholder value in any market outcome.

With that operator, we're now available to take questions.

We will move to our first question from John Chappell with Evercore ISI.

Kenneth, you touched on it briefly. In your introduction, but if you could just provide a little bit more insight on the Ardmore investment.

Just seems a little curious given it's a part of the tanker sector that Teekay hasn't really been involved in much in the past.

I get it cheap, so it's TNK. And it's also just like a lot less liquid than TNK as an investment's concern. So maybe explain the thought process behind that and also how you looked at that investment vis a vis buying back your own shares? Yes. Thanks, Jim. Good morning. Kind of expected that question. I just want to emphasize that Our number one priority is obviously our core fleet and our core business at Teekay Teekay the fleet renewal, which we get a chance to discuss as well. But the investment here is not a strain really away from from what we've done in the past. As you will remember, we've always had some MR exposure We haven't had it for some time. We looked around. The market was up for some time when it took a big dip last year towards the end. We We thought Artemol was just very good value, and we made a very small investment as you can see, in that company relative to our asset base here. And it was always meant to be small. We just it was opportunistic. And it was a financial investment. And then what happened was, as you saw last week, Hartmore announced that Teekay bought back 4% of their shares and that kind of brought into the 5.1%.

But I just want to emphasize it's a small investment. Think it's good value and where you have a bit of investment here, I think it keeps us focused on the adjacent sectors in a different manner.

Okay. And then in my follow-up, you just announced this morning, the new LR2 that you're purchasing that you're going to get in the second quarter. You're still selling at a quicker pace than you're replacing, which I think makes sense. In this asset value environment.

So So kind of a similar question, how do you think about continued pace of renewal buying versus selling and then also in the last two years in the first quarter, you've had special dividends I would think that given the cash balance Teekay, the proceeds that you're raising from these vessel sales, you're even in a stronger position But on the other hand, the market's a bit more uncertain. So a lot in there, but kind of pays of replacement and capital allocation within that. Yes, great questions. And obviously, what we're spending all our time discussing and making decisions around here I would say on the fleet renewal, you're right. And as I commented on in in the remarks and the Q and A at last quarter, we're looking at selling some of our older vessels and we're looking at buying some newer vessels. And that's all part of being an operating company obviously and the renewal of our fleet. As you all know, we've been sweating our assets heavily over the past three years, and I think that's been great. We also been running off ship years and we think now is a pretty good time start leaning in.

You're correctly pointing out that we are selling more vessels than we're buying up to now. If you look at it in ship years, we are actually buying more ship years than than we're selling. So I think it just speaks to how we're trying to to manage where we are in the cycle. And and at the same time try and renew the fleet here. So we're leaning in To your second question on capital allocation, It's clear we are in a very strong position. When we When we embarked on this cycle a couple of years ago here, we always had it as a stated objective that we wanted to really build financial strength and financial flexibility at Teekay Teekay everybody anybody looking at our balance sheet can say that that's what we have done and we're pretty excited about that. That's what you need to do in a cyclical business that is capital intensive. I think the next couple of years are going to be interesting. So clearly, for people that have the capital to make investments, think we are in a position where we can hopefully make some investments that's going to create some some good long term shareholder value.

And then that brings you to the question that you're asking around special dividends, which is always part of of the capital allocation plan. As you know, we're not the company out there that's paying out all our earnings and we've been very clear on that from the beginning. We have a fixed dividend, which we also declared this quarter. And once a year, we have the discussion with the Board, whether there is a special dividend coming and that's on the agenda for this Board meeting that's coming up soon. Okay.

Thanks for the thoughts, guys.

Thanks.

We'll move next to Omar Nota with Jefferies.

Thank you.

Hi, Kenneth and team. Couple from my side. Maybe just first kind of a follow-up to John's question.

And then a market related question. Just kind of on the last topic, obviously, you're flush with cash.

No debt, plenty of liquidity.

And the cash is coming in much faster than you're able to deploy it. Maybe just kind of bigger picture on how you see TNK from here Do you see the platform maybe evolving in terms of the Ardmore stake perhaps is not a one off and that you have your operating tanker fleet, you've got the marine business with Teekay Australia you think that you're going to have a growing portfolio approach perhaps where you're taking stakes in other equities and that's sort of an avenue of exposure to the sector without having to put capital to work. [indiscernible] Yes. No, I don't. I think I just want to emphasize that the Artmore investment is really small in our SoHo capital allocation plan here The number one priority is obviously looking after our core fleet. We are an operating company and we are keen to deploy capital in a manner where we invest in our our operating platform, which as you know is fully integrated technical management and all the commercial management. So we're looking to add assets that we where we can bring value to those assets by putting them on our platform. And that's obviously not by investing in other companies.

So So I just want to be very clear that that's our number one priority. As you point out, Omar, it's we're generating cash faster than we're able to deploy it.

I would say it's not a problem to redeploy cash. I think it's maybe hard to keep patients to be patient in the market like we're in, but we are. And I think we've been through a lot of cycles over the past fifty years as a company and many of us have been through a few cycles. So think we know that to be patient sometimes pays off. And but that's exactly what we're doing here. So I don't think it's a matter of that we cannot deploy it. I think it's a matter of being patient.

Okay. Yes. Thank you. And then just one quick follow-up just on that note and appreciate your comments of having taken a sub-five percent stake, but by virtue of the buyback, you've now had to file the 13 gs.

I take it that this is just as you say, it's a small opportunistic holding with no plans perhaps of wanting to to increase the size of that position?

Yes, that's right. I had a fellow CEO called yesterday and we chugled about it, but they clearly saw that there was good value there as well. And it wasn't really our fault. So Yes, you're right.

Okay. All right. And then if I could just ask a question about the market and you referenced this in your presentation just all the sanctions and how potentially there's 73 ships coming on into sanction next week. I think you said from the EU just I guess in general, given your significant kind of market presence within the Aframaxes, the 150 or so tankers that were sanctioned in January by The U. S. Obviously, there's all kinds of uncertainty as to how long those sanctions may hold. Wanted to get a sense from you given your active participation in the space, have you seen an effect or an impact of those sanctions yet on the Aframax market And then how do you see it affecting things if those get lifted?

Yes. Hi, Omar. I think we have seen an impact from the sanctions that were placed on January 10.

Of those ships that were sanctioned, there was over 150 tankers and the majority of those were serving the Russian Far East trade out of Kosmino, And in the weeks following that, we've certainly seen difficulties in rushing getting that all out of Cosmino into China.

And we've also seen India as well having to look at alternative sources. So if you look at what's happened in the market over the past month, We are seeing a bit of a drop in Russian exports and Chinese and Indian buyers are having to look for alternative sources of crude. So we've seen an increase in volume from their Middle East also from West Africa and other parts of the Atlantic to make up for the shortfall here. Which is why we've seen some volatility on the VLCC side in particular which is then helping out the Suezmaxes a little bit as well. So the OPEC sanctions, they are having an impact. As you said, we don't know what the future is from here, whether we're going to more sanctions or or relaxation on sanctions. But as Ken said in his remarks, all this uncertainty does create volatility. When you have changes to trade patterns, disruptions, it all speaks to volatility. So we are seeing a bit of an impact in the freight market, but as you said, very difficult to sort of project forward how this is going to evolve in the coming months. Good.

Thanks, Christian. I appreciate the color there. And kind of thank you as well. I'll turn it over. [indiscernible] Moving next to Ken Hoexter with Bank of America.

Hey, great. Good morning.

If I guess talking about the rates, right? So we had 24 and $28,000 per day Teekay the Suezmax Aframax at what's just about two thirds and just over half the quarterly days booked. That's down a bit from the fourth quarter, but yet we're talking about more sanctions having a positive impact, seasonally colder weather, increasing power needs. So is the additional capacity creating the bigger overhang? What's driving what's your thoughts on what's driving the rates pressure on rates near term here?

Yes. I mean, for sure, we I think in Suezmaxes, there was a weaker finish to 2024 and a weaker start to 2025. And I think what we've seen now is an uplift. Certainly, this week, [indiscernible] significantly stronger than what we average So I think what's driving that as we talked about in the [indiscernible] is really West East arbitrage that's moving up and the VLCCs that's been moving up and then some replacement barrels that's really beginning to kick in now. As you recall, the sanctioned vessels, there was a bit of a delay on and they needed to offload. And then there was scrambling for cargoes and that's driving it. So we just see more cargo demand in that Okay.

And then if we think about I guess the delays in the tariffs and some of the delays that have gone on. If we start getting toward a point of peace in between Russia, Ukraine, and that's going to take some time to develop. Same thing in The Middle East with the Houthis. What's your thought on how that pans out?

What shifts you see first? How quick, I guess, based on historical experience?

Yes. I think that's where we on President territory.

We haven't really as I think back historically had this situation before. As I said, if we just look at the medium sized tankers what really stands out is that before the invasion, that we just had, over just over 100 ships that were over 20 years old And they were typically trading with charterers that didn't have the typical age restriction and they were typically lifting cargoes from countries where you had various degrees of sanctioned oil.

Of course, what the war created was this demand for additional vessels to facilitate that trade. As we point out, that fleet has now grown up well, fleet is larger, but the number of vessels over 20 today is over 300 vessels, right? It's growing just in three years from 100 to 300 basically because nothing has been scrapped. And what we are then also saying is that if that continued the sanctions even though you can argue that the the parallel feature is is maybe becoming saturated, but then you have another round of sanctioned vessels that are that are taking place and then there's demand for more vessels that are above sanctions that can carry the oil. So as long as that persists, think there is a demand for the older tankers So if nothing happens and we didn't scrap any vessels and in that category, as we pointed out, we would actually be a safe harbor vessels that are over 20. And there's nothing in history that kind of tells us what how quickly that can unfold. I think what we can say is that if the trade normalizes, and what we all are subjected to in kind of the regular trade, I mean, we do see the the age restrictions that especially at 20 Teekay starts ticking in and in some cases with some charters even earlier than that.

So there is a lot of vessels here that I think will either be operating with very low utilization or will be parked somewhere. Or will start going to the scrapyard hubs. At what pace that's going to happen? I think that's the million dollar question. And I think it's the right question to ask, but I'm afraid we don't have the answer.

Appreciate that. That's true.

It's an awful lot compared to normal. So maybe just two quick ones just to wrap up. The seasonality that you normally see in through 1Q into 2Q, maybe could you just remind us of that? And then then you mentioned the vessel purchased. Are you seeing a lot of especially with that much overcapacity potentially hitting and what that could do to rates? Are you seeing more books come across your desk in terms of vessel sale opportunities?

Yes, good question. So first of all, just on on where we see the rates, I think we kind of touched on it and when we looked at it, typically when you come into Q4 and go out of Q1, you kind of have rates that that start low and go up and then they start coming down as you get into Q2. These past two quarters, we've kind of seen the inverse of that, I would say. So a little bit unusual, but we've had unusual years in the past couple of years. But that's kind of where rates have been going. So we definitely looks like we're moving stronger into Q2, but it's kind of the inverse of what we saw last year. And in terms of S and P opportunities, yes, market has come down on vessels, which is also why we're beginning [indiscernible] said to Jan. I mean, and as we talked about on the last quarter, kind of see ourselves maybe selling a little bit faster than we're buying. But have fleet replenishment and we haven't done a lot in recent years. And We've seen prices come into kind of a zip code that we're beginning to like again.

So that's why we acquired one ship today and we'll continue to look for opportunities When people have had a couple of good years as most tank owners have had, Some owners have different priorities and as we continue to say, I mean, we're an operating company. We like to have a certain scale in the market. So we'll obviously be focused on trying to renew the favor. We'll do it at a very mission to pace it. Very helpful. [indiscernible] And that will conclude the Q and A portion of today's call. I will now turn the call back to the company for any additional or closing remarks.

Thank you very much for listening into our call today. We look forward to reporting back to you next quarter. Thank you. Have a good day.

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that will conclude today's [indiscernible]