Vanguard Small Cap Growth Index Fund Price & Performance (VBK)

And thanks for joining us for our 2025 and half year earnings [indiscernible] I am here today with Olaf Truber, our CFO. Looking back at the past six months, we've made good progress on our major growth project our etinolusis plant in Bitterfeld. [indiscernible] From 2026, of renewable molecules at our Bitterfeld site for the chemical industry. These specialty chemicals are key ingredients in [indiscernible] cleaning products, high performance lubricants, and plastics. With this, we are driving the transition from fossil based to renewable raw materials, in the chemical sector. Meanwhile, the ethanol plant startup in Nevada hasn't gone as smoothly as expected equipment main functions. We are working at full capacity to resolve these quality issues and ramp up operations. The technology and process in Naveda are proven and reliable. Hence, our long term outlook remains fully intact. Shifting to our operating results, the recovery of the greenhouse gas market is not happening as quickly as we anticipated. Operating conditions continue to be challenging in the German greenhouse gas quota market due to the huge oversupply of greenhouse gas credits [indiscernible] Fortunately, we are seeing things stabilize thanks to national and international measures and expect to see significant improvement in the region in calendar year 2025.

Despite these challenges, we delivered a strong particularly thanks to our biodiesel segment Verbio continued to focus on operational excellence which resulted in gross margin improvement quarter over quarter and year over year in the segment despite lower spot market spreads. With that, I'd like to turn it over to Olaf to take us through some financials and then I'll come back with my thoughts on 2025. Olaf, the floor is yours.

Thanks, Claus, and good afternoon, everyone. I will start with an overview of the first half of before diving into So the first slide key figures The year over year increase in ethanol volumes the light green bars in the chart on the far left was driven by better utilization in [indiscernible] [indiscernible] And specifically at a plant in South Bend. No, previous owner of this ethanol plant has managed to produce volumes like that [indiscernible] 20 Yes. Our R and G production volumes also increased thanks to better utilization at our plants Innovator [indiscernible] [indiscernible] Yet our EBITDA declined to €1,430,000,0.0 mostly on the back of weak Average product margins in the first half of the year are much lower. This was largely due to an oversupply of greenhouse gas reductions caused by the fraud in the German Market.

Notably, in the first half of 2023, 2024, we were still benefiting from higher contractually fixed greenhouse gas premiums making last year's comparison basis [indiscernible] Our net debt at the December, stood at roughly €97,000,000 as we continued to invest into our key projects.

These include mainly South Bend ethanol, and our plant for Specialty Chemicals in Germany Klaus mentioned before. While we continue to invest we proceed with and keep our focus on our balance sheet. [indiscernible] [indiscernible] Capital expenditures [indiscernible] €36,000,000 in the [indiscernible] $30.62,000,000 euros for the Meanwhile, our operating cash flow [indiscernible] Positive. And well quite good. The equity ratio was still close to 65%. And remained largely [indiscernible] With that, I will turn to Q True. So overview of As Claus already mentioned, the was overall satisfactory considering the challenging markets and the continued burden from our North American operations. As expected, we saw a strong recovery in the compared to the of the current financial year. EBITDA for the stood at €2,080,000,0.0 compared to minus €660,000,0.0 in the €26,000,000 in the same period last year. Quarter over quarter, both main segments biodiesel and the combined segment Verbio ethanol, biometan showed a significant improvement in EBITDA in biodiesel segment alone EBITDA more than The significant recovery is due to attractive margins thanks to favorable grape seed oil purchases, compared to the spot [indiscernible] [indiscernible] recovery in the bio ethanol biometains segment compared to the previous quarter is largely due to development of changes in the value of financial assets [indiscernible] commodity [indiscernible] Next slide, Biodiesel segment Let me now give you a bit more color on the individual year over year performance of the segment.

As you can see in the chart on the left, Revenues remained largely stable at $2.42,000,000 euros comparable production and sales volumes. Higher average biodiesel prices in the partially offset by lower greenhouse gas premiums, [indiscernible] that our Carnatium plant has operated through processing contracts from the December '23 through November '24, November, which essentially means lower revenues and raw material costs. Despite more attractive greenhouse gas premiums last year, we managed to increase EBITDA by 25% year over year. Due to our focus on spread or margin management We capitalize on higher biodiesel prices, thanks to favorable rate purchases.

Next slide, please. [indiscernible] Well, and update. Yeah. Speaking of Canada, much like many of our biodiesel peers in North America, we have reduced our production volumes at Welland due to difficult margin environment. [indiscernible] it's worth to note this had been conservatively anticipated in our initial guidance. Because of expected challenges linked to the From the [indiscernible] BTC, to the production tracks tax credit [indiscernible] The BDC is feedstock agnostic means electrical parties receive $1 per [indiscernible] [indiscernible] it translates to roughly $2.80 euros per tonne whereas the PTC intensifies a low carbon intensity and gives a different value for each [indiscernible] We are planning to ramp up the plant in March 0 again. As the recent PTC guidance should work in favor. So why? Excluding canola oil from the PTC puts American producers at a disadvantage. Canola oil, which mostly comes from Canada, is not eligible for the PTC. And with this, we can produce biodiesel approximately €35 per ton cheaper compared to a U. S. Player for soybean oil which comes [indiscernible] U. S. Biodiesel market development in Europe, just the next slide. Back to our operating performance in the The result of our margin management becomes evident.

When we look at a chart on [indiscernible] On average, spot spreads were almost €30 per tonne of biodiesel less in the compared to last year. While the contract greenhouse gas premiums were lower this year, we still managed to improve product margins year over Yeah. The demand for biodiesel bots lower compared to the same period last year mainly due to macroeconomic factors. And reduce mileage. Additionally, parties with quota obligations have moderately put back on their blending by the since the transfer of quotas As a result, the decline in biodiesel imports from China only partially helped biodiesel spreads. If you now take a look you will notice that the spread between biodiesel and Ripe oil were significantly lower than last year. However, it's worth pointing out that both biodiesel and rapeseed oil prices did rise during the reporting mainly due to trends in the vegetable oil market. Next slide, Alina, Biotenew. In the bioethanol biomethane segment, sales declined to €147,000,000 as you can see in the far left 4Q 02/24, 2025. This is despite the fact that production volumes increased The sales trend was driven by lower sales prices and specifically lower greenhouse gas premiums. And the decrease in earnings to minus €1,530,000,0.0 was primarily the result of a lower gross margin somewhat offset by lower personnel expenses and favorable changes in fair value of commodity forward contracts FX effects.

Well, it's also worth to mention that the dollar cash holdings had been increased to the upcoming payments at South Bend ethanol to safeguard the ITC, the investment tax credit for the investment. But the general approach remains unchanged, which is to optimize with as little [indiscernible] as possible to avoid unnecessarily increasing sensitivity. Sensitivity. [indiscernible] [indiscernible] Due to higher blending mandates, and the introduction of E10, in Poland there was a strong demand for ethanol. Apart from that, ethanol remained at cheap blending component. So we expected [indiscernible] quota obligations in Germany, only slightly reduced their blending by the end of [indiscernible] [indiscernible] greenhouse gas quota surplus. It won't be available until 2027 due to changes in regulation. Relatively lower bio ethanol spreads during the quarter compared to last year can be partially linked to imports [indiscernible] The U. S. Turning to The U. S. In The U. S, the good harvest and low corn prices drove the bio ethanol prices lower in the summer months. As you can see in the chart on the right side. At the same time, manufacturers pushing production to a maximum and thereby squeezing margins compared to last year. As depicted on the left.

Also seasonal demand trends kicked in In summer, more thriving lead to higher bio ethanol demand. But margins usually dip in the winter and the demand drops in the colder months.

But Now back to Claus, who will give you more insight on the quota and what's happening there? Thank you, Olaf.

So amendment to the 38 ordinance stabilized greenhouse gas quota prices. So during our on November '13 German Federal Cabinet approved the draft amendment on the thirty eighth regulation on the implementation of the Federal Emission Protection put forward by the Federal Ministry of Environment Nature Conservation nuclear safety and consumer protection. [indiscernible] This [indiscernible] emergency measure, It's firefighting. In the preamble, of the greenhouse gas emergency amendment the BMUV rights that the measure is designed to increase the demand and the prices for greenhouse gas quotas in the future. With the amendment [indiscernible] [indiscernible] Lose the option to use their surplus CO2 savings Where a lot is [indiscernible] for offsetting purposes in 2025, and 2026, Since the publication of the draft, the demand for greenhouse gas quotas 2024, has almost come to a standstill This makes sense because there will be now be a delay until 2027 before the 2024 surplus quotas can be used again even the 2025 surplus, if there will be a surplus, has to be delayed into 2027. So why would anyone buy them? As a result, prices have fallen sharply in the short term for 2024. Meanwhile, the quota price is for 2025 have started to increase as you can see on the slide in front of you.

Unfortunately, the immediate recovery is slower than expected. We see 2 main reasons. Firstly, There are sellers in the market that are purely driven by liquidity needs currently which works in favor of big oil. But transaction volumes should be rather low. Furthermore, greenhouse gas balances for 2024 remain open until the March,. So there hasn't been much focus on anything beyond that [indiscernible] [indiscernible] As the 2024 quota year closes, attention will likely shift toward 2025. Meanwhile, the focus on maximizing blending low carbon intensity fuels, as any unblended of fuel would be a lost opportunity To fulfill the targets 2025, for the obligated parties will be a challenge. [indiscernible] recovery slower than expected. New guidance hit by market and technical issues at Nevada plant. [indiscernible] So the slower than initially expected recovery of the spot greenhouse gas quota prices The lower than planned greenhouse gas quota prices contracted to minimize risk and the technical issues at Naveda, let us to reduce our EBITDA guidance For the current financial year on January '15, We are now expecting an EBITDA result in the mid double digit million range, versus previously €120,000,000 to €160,000,000 and our expectation for net financial debt at the end of the financial year remains unchanged at the maximum of €190,000,000 Let me give you now a bit more detail on Naveda.

Unfortunately, Quality Issues With Equipment At The Ethanol Production Facility Have Been Detected During The Startup Phase. And This Equipment Is Based In The Old DuPont plant, which we bought several years ago. So small things but the repairs will take some time and it LEAP to a delay in our ramp up. An example is rust in valves that were originally installed in the existing facility and now needed to be replaced 1 by 1 So this is roughly about 200 waves. And now during the winter season, when it is terribly cold, It's a challenge, but we are doing progress.

As I said at the beginning of the call, the EBITDA impact is a timing shift, not a structural issue. The ramp up delay in Naveda postpones the expected positive EBITDA contribution further and the repairs at a single digit million euro amount in costs. But despite the revised timeline our long term outlook remains [indiscernible] We remain fully committed to the successful execution of Naveda. We now expect to provide a revised completion schedule with our results in May 0. The full utilization is key to running a bioethanol plant profitably. To mitigate the impact we are working at full capacity ensuring that all the necessary improvements meet our performance [indiscernible] My colleague, or our colleague our CTO, Professor Doctor. Lutteke, is on-site actively managing the process and we maintain a low utilization at below 25%. So let me now hand back to Olaf who will discuss the net debt guidance. Olaf? Thank you, Claus.

Yes, as highlighted by Claus, this [indiscernible] our expectations for net debt remains unchanged. We have some flexibility in managing our [indiscernible] particularly in connection with South Bend, PACE. Of investment is being entrusted. Some further liquidity measures include the management of financial assets.

Furthermore, we are optimizing working capital so that [indiscernible] [indiscernible] And the initially unplanned strategic buildup in inventories linked to the new quota regulations is seen to be Off. Sit. Next slide, please. Thank you. Shifting from our guidance to the outlook ahead, we are focusing on free [indiscernible] [indiscernible] After a period of heavy investment, and in the context of the challenging market environment, we know focus on optimizing existing assets through plant modernization [indiscernible] Cost out investments. While our strategic growth projects they are all being Athanasolus plant build out continues at full speed. And we have just recently put out a press release on the achievement of a construction milestone namely the installation of the distillation [indiscernible] Meanwhile, the investment at South Bend Etainu could transform the plant into a state of the art facility. That combines the production of ethanol with ING will be phased. We will take each construction phase Hi. [indiscernible] Also, the investment into the CNG and LNG gas station network will be finalized this financial year. And with this, we [indiscernible] the rent in the value chain of [indiscernible] And also worth to note [indiscernible] opportunistic growth initiatives under review. Now Claus will give you will give us an update on market expectations which are also seen supporting cash flow [indiscernible] [indiscernible] [indiscernible] Yes, yes, yes.

I was on mute.

Sorry. Okay.

Thank you. Okay. So yes, we are optimistic. You see here accelerating greenhouse gas quota which was finally the target of that [indiscernible] from term and regulator. So the accelerating greenhouse gas quota recovery is for the German market and for the European market imminent. We are optimistic about calendar year 2025 and 2026 As we near the quota a year in March 0 attention will likely shift to 2025 in the quota market. [indiscernible] So with the increase in greenhouse gas quota mandate, to 10.6% in 2025 Demand is expected to rise significantly At the same time, supply should tighten due to several [indiscernible] [indiscernible] First, UER projects most of them from China, Most of them are FrauDLELEND, So UAR projects are being discontinued and the option to carry over quotas into 2025 and 2026, has been eliminated So the 1.2% UER options are away and this amount has now to be fulfilled by physical [indiscernible] More demand, Additionally, anti dumping duties on Chinese biodiesel our adding pressure to supply. Also, China itself has removed the 13% export tax rebate on used cooking oil, which was effectively as a subsidy of around US120 dollars to US150 dollars per tonne So for exporting used cooking oil from China, you got a subsidy of USD130 to USD150 per ton.

This is aimed at boosting domestic biofuels production. On top of that, Indonesia is implementing stricter controls on palm oil [indiscernible] like [indiscernible] [indiscernible] and used cooking oil Further restricting exports.

All of these factors combined should create a tighter market for CO2 savings which should significantly impact the market going forward. So Indonesia takes action on fraud indication and that backs German greenhouse gas markets. So on Slide 16, you see the announcement So what has happened Indonesia exports of Poland and Harpur which is finally palm oil and which is feedstocks for the production of advanced biofuels according to European regulation, have been rising sharply surpassing crude palm oil exports. This article reads [indiscernible] [indiscernible] 3400000.0 tonnes while crude palm oil exports were only 2700000.0 tons.

So over the past five years, [indiscernible] by nearly 21% per year while crude palm oil exports dropped by almost 20% annually. I think everybody who looks on these figures will realize very fast what's going to happen. So the Indonesian Trade Ministry pointed out, that these exports have far exceeded reasonable limits as normally only around 300000 tons not $350,000,0.0 300000 tons of these residues should be exported. This means that crude palm oil is being mixed with Pome or Harpour inflating export numbers. Being text Indonesia, is losing a great amount of money. Because Pome are not text, with export taxes. So in response the government introduced new regulation in January 2025 to impose stricter controls on the export of palm oil derivatives [indiscernible] and used cooking oil.

So with this left I hand over to the operator and we can start with the Q and A session.

Thank you so far for the insights. We will now move on to the Q and A. We received a couple of questions already. But as a reminder, please submit your question via the chat function and make sure to state your name and the company name. I will read them 1 by 1. We will try to cover as many as possible in the time we have, and we will start with the sell side analyst followed by buy side analysts and investors. So Right in. And the first question we received are coming from Pablo from Kepler Chevreux. He has 4 questions. So maybe we start with the first 1. Can you maybe help to detail which is the expected annual negative EBITDA linked to the operational issue in The U. S. Bioplans due to the COVID and failure. I think I think [indiscernible] Okay. Yes, go ahead. I think we answered question by question, not all the questions. Answered. Okay. Yes, go ahead, Olaf.

So in the effect was roughly minus EUR 5,000,000 and in the approximately minus €9,000,000 So if you put it to an entire year, you would end up more or less with a €9,000,000 with a €30,000,000 But again, that's just a calculation. It heavily depends on the ramp up and how the ramp up will happen and as we outlined before, we will provide further information May, with the release of our nine months figures. Please be patient.

But what I want to add here is The question is that What is linked just to the delay in the ramp up and the equipment failure. What Olaf mentioned is the overall ethanol result. So it's not the $9,000,000 for is not only due to our delay in the ramp up, it is also that right now the ethanol margins in The U. S. Are under pressure And margins traditionally over the winter time are lower. So that will recover and we expect that it will recover from March 0 onwards. So it is not only the failure, it's also weak ethanol margins right now in The U. S. Okay.

Next question please. Yes. Speaking about The U. S. Plant, maybe we can add them on Mr. Mulbrock.

From MWB Research. The consequences of the technical issue in The U. S, could they lead to other major challenges including Financials 1 You mentioned that already with the EBITDA. When do you expect the facility to be fully operational So right now, the plan is that after the wintertime is over, we are ramping up quickly. So we expect that the plant can be, let's say, 80%, 90% capacity at the beginning of the new financial year. We will not be able to manage it Right now until the end of that business year, so June 0, would be a little bit too early. But we expect during summertime that we can be on full capacity for ethanol and gas production.

Short follow-up question. At what capacity utilization do you reach breakeven in Well, it depends on ethanol and on the prices. But usually, such a plant must run between 90100% food utilization and then you are making money.

Perfect. Thanks for these insights. Leaving The U. S. Behind, can you update us which is your view about the [indiscernible] the plan should be that the RAD3 implementation should be finished at the May, 2025. That's the timeline given by the European Union. But we are getting now a new government It will take time. So but it should be in the The implementation of the RED3 And our main expectation is not about increasing further increasing the volume, so the regulation what we have right now is really ambitious But what we want to know is how the government will deal [indiscernible] CO2 savings coming from UER, which are significant. We are talking about several million tons of CO2 savings which we have finally not delivered And the question is how we will find a way with the government to put these wrong CO2 savings until 02/30 on top of the existing So that is our challenge. And finally, also what measures will be taken to provide fraud in the future. So [indiscernible] restriction regulation that not everybody can deliver into the European market. More controls on the feedstock side And finally, which is the most important, the for European, for German regulator to control production and feedstock supply where it is coming from.

So we are not so much focused on higher targets We are more focused on getting the existing targets safer.

Thanks for the insight. Another question from Pablo Do you see feasible to maintain a similar performance in the biodiesel segment when compared to the H1 performance.

Well, it's hard to say now. [indiscernible] We expected faster increase in greenhouse gas prices, yes, And it is the February,. It didn't happen. So we expect furthermore profitable biodiesel margins and biodiesel results. But if it will be in the same range [indiscernible] that's too early to say. The market is reacting very fast. We have we saw it especially in ethanol last week. That ethanol prices were jumping up and down. So the market is very nervous at the moment. And margins can very fast increase at the same, they can also drop So right now, I think we have the focus from the obligated parties is mainly on 2024 still, So as I said, I'm surprised that quota prices are still so low because the challenge to fulfill the obligation for 2025 is huge. We are talking about additional 10000000 tons of CO2 savings and right now, I don't know how they want to manage to bring these molecules into the fossil fuels because everywhere ethanol and also with biodiesel we have blending walls.

Thank you. Last question from Pablo Cheuvreux. Are you seeing any change in demand pattern on RNG during the last month in your countries? [indiscernible] [indiscernible] demand is very stable. And the focus is since one or one point five years, not anymore only on Germany, Since one point five years, it is possible to renewable natural gas all over Europe And our export volumes have significantly increased So there is an increasing demand for RNG in Europe, So we don't see anything and I think the most important thing is now and that's our look how the greenhouse gas quota prices will increase.

And if it's going to increase and come to a more profitable situation, then there we have still possibilities to increase our volumes and to produce with the same amount of molecules what we are [indiscernible] to realize higher greenhouse gas savings. But everything is now Focused on what the quota price will do And we are very flexible on that side. Our molecules, we have full books for the calendar year so the volumes are fixed, [indiscernible] [indiscernible] there we have some flexibility to create more or less greenhouse gas savings. Technically, we are super flexible there. [indiscernible] there must be a business case. Finally, the time is running for us. We are not under pressure. Volumes are sold. Margins are especially for the European market, reasonable. In The U. S. Market, yes, we have there the technical issues, but also that shift from the blenders tax credit to the production tax credit makes absolute sense. The Biden administration missed to send out the details about the regulation in time. So that is the reason why at the moment, margins in ethanol are low Biodiesel flow is also [indiscernible] But very soon now, that will change. More clarity will come to the market.

And therefore, I'm strong that everywhere the margins will recover and will become more profitable. And we are not under pressure, as I said, We can observe the market and relate it to the recovery in the margins we are able to create more greenhouse gas sales We will not do it. Must be some let's say, premium on high greenhouse gas creation which I don't see right now, Let's see what's going to happen. It will be a very interesting year 2025 The next question comes from Mr. Hesse, Jefferies.

Do you expect better rape seed oil prices to continue benefiting in the remaining quarters, it seems biodiesel spreads is undernarrowing quite a bit again in and Well, rigs lead oil prices came already up significantly But what is very interesting is during our presentation, we mentioned that canola oil in Canada has a disadvantage compared to soybean oil in The U. S. So in Canada, farmers are not growing soybean they are growing canola, which is which is rapeseed at the end of the day. So all that canola oil was used to produce biodiesel which went to The U. S. Where you got the Blenders Tax Credit, but this is over. And for a U. S. Producer, who will get a production tax credit in the future, soybean oil is more interesting. So that leads already now to the fact that canola oil has a discount compared to soybean oil and more and more canola as a rate and also canola oil is now coming to Europe. So I agree we should see higher rapeseed oil prices because of growing demand But with the development in North America now canola is limiting the increase in rapeseed oil prices.

So to make a long story short, until new harvest I don't expect higher rapeseed oil prices its limited by Canadian canola.

Another question from Mr. Hesse. On the guidance cut, what was the impact of The U. S. Versus the now updated expectation of [indiscernible] And why hasn't the net debt changed? Is it less CapEx?

Well, well, it's both. But I cannot give you a real figure how much impact was U. S. And how much impact was the let's say the the greenhouse gas or the delay in the increase of greenhouse gas prices. Nevertheless, we made sensitivity analysis And finally, we came to the conclusion that there is a lot of uncertainty in the market and therefore, we have to correct our guidance Because until June '13, there is not a lot of time left. The question about the net debt is, I said it before, we are not under pressure. Our European, our German Verbio fuel business is still profitable. We are making money And with this money, we are financing our growth projects. So if the cash flow doesn't come in, we are able to adjust our investment projects So that means that is what we are doing. We are adjusting investment projects we take a stronger focus on cash flow management Olaf mentioned it, And therefore, and I think that is also how we mean it, this is our limit this €190,000,000 and we have an eye on it It can change again if the recovery from the market will be faster but our clear focus is on cash management.

So we are able to adjust and shift investment projects a little bit more down the road.

Getting back to The U. S, when do you [indiscernible] think that U. S. Have a positive contribution again.

So the positive contribution will be not business years, So our focus is now that the positive contribution will come in the next business year And we are very positive that we will be able to achieve that.

Also a question from Mr. Hasser On the balance sheet, what are the remaining credit lines available two years? And how is the CapEx plan or the how many CapEx is left for the and twenty six?

Sorry, can you repeat that question? There was so much. I think we should put it in some Yes, we slice it into pieces and we'll start with the first 1.

What are the remaining credit lines available?

Well, this is something what we are not disclosing.

Okay. But do you see any risk of additional equipment requirements in the next two years?

I think equipment that that we have to replace some equipment on our running plant, something like that, No. Yes. And then to ask to bring The U. S. Fully under capacity No.

The investment in Nevada is done. Now the focus is to ramp it up. There will be some small additional costs. Costs. I mentioned it during the presentation. But the big amount of investment is done. Now we have to ramp it up. South Bend is an existing ethanol plant.

Which is producing ethanol in feed There, our focus is to bring it up to bring it up back to nameplate capacity. And Rellens, the biodiesel plant, was operating. Everywhere especially in South Bend in Beland, we have ideas and we have possibilities to implement our technologies what we are using in our plants in Germany. Nothing has to be done. So that is what I mean We are able to adjust and to delay investment ideas. The big investments are done [indiscernible] with our German sites they are operating, they are always close to 100% full capacity [indiscernible] it was important that we installed our filling stations because with the filling stations now we are able to bring more molecules into the market to create more greenhouse gas savings if we are able to make money. So also this investment is done. So what is left is ethanolus, So Ethanoluses is an investment for the future. Where the RAPE SEAT methil is what we are selling right now as biodiesel. Will be the feedstock So therefore, we expect that we are coming into new markets and realizing higher margins. [indiscernible] On the investment side, we are super relaxed and we can adjust it due to our cash flow situation.

Perfect. Thank you. Getting back to the GHG certificate prices, what price do you assume in your guidance today?

Olaf, I think this we are not going to disclose as well.

No.

But it's close to the current market price more or less. Just to give you a quick Okay.

Okay. And about the price development, well, it's clear why you believe that the GHG price should recover, Why aren't we seeing any improvement? And when do you expect an improvement?

As I said, I think the focus from the oil companies, obligate parties are right now at 2024 obligation. So they are finalizing their book. And they have time until the March, So now we expect after that has to be done, that during March 0, prices will start to increase And let's see where it is going to. Me personally, I expect that it will go beyond €200 per metric ton of CO2 savings. But let's see.

And that is the reason so the obligation and the challenge for 2025 is extraordinary and that is our expectation that or that is our Let's say we think that right now their focus is mainly on finishing the 2024 balance sheet and after that then they will focus on 2025.

Perfect. We received a couple of questions from Haugen Aufwieser from the analyst Wunderlich. So I will here as well slice the questions a little bit. Should biodiesel make another strong EBITDA contribution in what about the Rib Seed oil prices?

The same, yes. Biodiesel always delivers Verbio good results. This is already history. And as I said, I don't expect that rapeseed oil prices are further increasing I think it will stay at that level. Because it is limited it's limited through the fact that the canola, Canadian canola oil has a discount So stable business. We have our margins And with the recovery, greenhouse gas ticket prices will recover also the margins in ethanol and biodiesel have to recover. And EBIT on the same level like I don't know.

Okay. But that could be the next question as well. Do you expect EBITDA of the BOE ethanol and RNG segment to continue to gradually improve over the coming quarters.

Yes. That is our expectation. Significantly improve Biodes and ethanol is different. Biodiesel, we have the molecule, we sell it, we have their embedded greenhouse gas savings. Which go which will be blended. On ethanol gas, it's different. We have ethanol which is also blended, but gas goes to the filling stations.

So there at the filling stations, we are creating the CO2 savings. The greenhouse gas ticket. So if we are not getting their sufficient money, we can reduce the greenhouse gas ticket raise and also steer a little bit the market. [indiscernible] if it doesn't increase the greenhouse gas ticket prices, our renewable natural gas will go to other markets. We are not obliged to bring it into the transport sector and create greenhouse gas savings.

Again, a question from Tim for The U. S. How big was the negative EBITDA impact from South Bend and Nevada in This we mentioned already, Olaf said it, the negative impact of The U. S. Ethanol segment in was minus 5000000 And in the it was minus 9.

And what would be the positive EBITDA swing in EURO million when Nevada moves from the capacity 25 to 90% utilization Well, our expectation to the overall ethanol contribution it's not only Nevada, it's also South Bend both, is that we expect on the full utilization and EBITDA contribution [indiscernible] €30,000,000 to €35,000,000 Perfect. Thank you. And how will The U. S. Tariffs affect your business in Canada?

Okay. Right now, there are no tariffs. But anyway, Canadian biodiesel will not continue to go to The U. S. Because of that change production tax credit versus blended tax credit. It makes no sense. The Canadian mandate for biodiesel in the past was fulfilled with U. S. Subsidized biodiesel. This is over and has nothing to do with the tariffs. So if the tariff is coming, and we have already a plan, but it will not impact us because anyway, Canadian canola and Canadian biodiesel now will stay in Canada. Canada The Canada Canadian obligated parties now have to buy their biodiesel from Canadian producers. That's clear. And on the other side, the tariffs into The U. S, they are not impacting us. We are a U. S. Producer. Maybe if Europe will then implement 25% tariff on U. S. Ethanol imports I don't know. There is a local market and there is an export market. And anyway, once we know more about tariffs, how it will be, in 1 quarter, we are able to adjust our business.

Coming from The U. S. And Canada to Germany, what would CETU election victory mean for the biofuel regulation?

I don't know. Let's see.

The only thing what I can say is that during that UER fraud There was significant support from CDU Finally, they were driving Yes. The Odfjlar Home that everything came on the spotlight So as I said, we have an existing regulation where the targets are fine. They are already ambitious. And the next step will be the implementation of the RAD3. And there, I said it already, was this our focus We need more controls We need more safety that something like this what happened the distortion of the ticket prices and It's strange There is a European regulation which want to ban palm oil until 02/30 And now under the existing regulation, never came more palm oil as derivatives to the European market then any time before. So that shows how weak that regulation is if it's not controlled. But finally, it's good that it happened now. Many years, we were arguing it, and I think that the CDU has let's say, more open ears to listen to our arguments and to the measurements which have to be taken anyway Otherwise, all the investments around renewables and that's not only biofuels are under danger. Will happen the same with chemistry, will happen the same with steel, with aluminum.

If there is no control where the product is coming from, FrauD is happening. Okay. Continue.

I will continue. And actually, there's just a last question from the sell side analysts. But as a reminder, if there are follow-up questions from the analysts, do not hesitate to post them. So a follow-up question from Mr. Vonja Wunderlich, because he actually saying he missed this information. What will be the total negative EBITDA contribution from The U. S. In [indiscernible] including the need to replace the valves. Olaf mentioned it already. We said we have in minus 5% in we have now minus €9 So altogether, it is for the first half around 50,000,000 And this contribution, another minus €15,000,000 for the second half is our maximum what we expect.

Okay. Perfect. Okay.

So it will end up at hopefully under €30,000,000 but not over €30,000,000 Perfect. I'm just checking the last time the question 3 have received. There are more questions indeed That actually, we are running out of time. So we will collect all the further question, hand it over to then we can make sure that there will be answered afterwards. So at this little bit out of time running over time already. I just want to say thank you for your insightful question and a big thank you for to you, Mr. Sauter and Mr. Truber And to all participants, we appreciate your time and interest and value. We would be very grateful if you would share your feedback with Verbio and our research team as well. And for this reason, you will find a short email in your inbox already and I just posted a link for a short survey. So at this moment, from my side, have a great day, and we're looking forward to seeing you again the next time. And for this please check our research hub at ResearchMinus Hub. DE.

Yes. But I hope I can make a final sentence Harry, thank you very much. You're welcome. Coordinating all the questions. I think that was our best call ever. You made it great. Thank you very much. We were able and we see it also now that some questions are repeating. And so and the rest should go to Alina. Only thing what I want to say at the end is, I hope that we were able to port the messages The message on [indiscernible] the supply side and the demand side are done There is this regulation, which was made in November, China is doing something. Indonesia is doing something. So nothing is necessary really now to come back to a reasonable market. We just need a little bit time now that all these measurements become true. And yes, saying that, thank you very much for everybody who was joining that call. Thank you very much again, Harry, for you. And if you need more information please contact Alina and she will be happy [indiscernible] [indiscernible] Thank you very much. Have a nice day.

Hearing again on our Q3 call.

Bye bye.

Thank you. [indiscernible]