Boeing lowered its 20-year commercial aircraft demand forecast to 43,600 jets on Saturday, marking a retreat from last year's projections as the aerospace giant grapples with ongoing production constraints and supply chain challenges.
The revised Commercial Market Outlook, released on the eve of the Paris Air Show, represents a decrease of 375 aircraft from Boeing's 2024 forecast of 43,975 deliveries through 2043. The reduction comes as the aviation industry faces continued headwinds despite strong passenger demand recovery.
The bulk of the forecast reduction hit the widebody market, with Boeing now projecting demand for 7,815 wide-body aircraft compared to 8,065 in last year's outlook—a decline of roughly 3 percent1. Single-aisle aircraft continue to dominate projections, accounting for 75 percent of anticipated deliveries at 33,285 jets12.
"Passenger traffic has tripled in size as the global economy has doubled. Despite the challenges of the last 25 years that we've seen both from an exogenous shock standpoint, from a global pandemic standpoint, and even from an economic standpoint," explained Darren Hulst, Boeing's vice-president of Commercial Marketing1.
The forecast envisions the global commercial fleet expanding from 27,150 aircraft currently to 49,640 by 2044, representing an average annual growth rate of 3.1 percent2.
Boeing's downward revision comes amid persistent manufacturing constraints that have plagued both major aircraft manufacturers. According to Leeham News, the aviation industry is receiving only about half the number of aircraft delivered during pre-pandemic years between 2015 and 2018, creating a cumulative shortage of 1,500 to 2,000 aircraft1.
The company has struggled to ramp up production of its 737 MAX following regulatory caps imposed after safety incidents. Forecast International estimates Boeing's current backlog would last approximately 11 years at current production rates2.
Boeing anticipates China will account for 21 percent of new aircraft demand, up 100 basis points from previous projections1. The company expects emerging markets will drive growth while North America and Eurasia focus primarily on fleet replacement.
"Emerging economies will be growing about two percentage points per year faster than advanced economies," Hulst noted, predicting that by the mid-2040s, demand in emerging and advanced economies will reach roughly equal sizes1.
The forecast tracks Boeing's gradual recovery from a turbulent period marked by the 737 MAX crisis, pandemic disruptions, and recent labor strikes that halted production for over 12 weeks2.
