A new study published in February 2025 challenges the long-standing "hard steps" model of intelligent life evolution, suggesting that human-like intelligence may be a more probable outcome of planetary development than previously thought.
The hard-steps model, proposed by physicist Brandon Carter in 1983, posited that intelligent life emerged through a series of highly improbable evolutionary events12. This theory argued that humanity's appearance required several unlikely "hard steps," including:
Formation of replicating molecules
Evolution of RNA and DNA
Development of multicellular organisms
Invention of sex and language
Carter's model based its conclusions on the observation that humans appeared relatively late in Earth's timeline, roughly 4.5 billion years into the Sun's 10-billion-year lifespan12. This timing led to the assumption that intelligent life was an extraordinarily rare occurrence in the universe, requiring a specific sequence of improbable events to unfold34.
The new research proposes that intelligent life may be a natural and predictable outcome of planetary evolution, rather than a series of improbable events12. This model suggests that the emergence of complex life correlates with gradual changes in Earth's environment, including oxygen levels, ocean salinity, and nutrient availability23. Instead of evolving "early" or "late," humans appeared "on time" when planetary conditions were suitable, implying that other planets might achieve these conditions at different rates45. This perspective shifts the focus from random chance to the interplay between life and its environment, challenging the notion that intelligence is an extraordinary occurrence in the cosmos67.
The study highlights several transformative insights into the evolution of intelligent life:
Environmental Evolution: Complex life development is closely tied to gradual planetary changes, such as shifts in oxygen levels, ocean salinity, and nutrient availability123.
Timing of Evolution: Human evolution occurred neither prematurely nor belatedly but aligned with Earth's readiness, suggesting that other planets might follow similar timelines based on their unique conditions145.
Collaborative Approach: This research bridges astrophysics and geobiology, offering a multidisciplinary perspective on how planetary and biological evolution interplay to shape intelligence26.
This reassessment significantly increases the likelihood of finding intelligent life elsewhere in the universe. By suggesting that the evolution of complex life is more about the interplay between organisms and their environment than random chance, the study opens up exciting possibilities for astrobiology12. The new model implies that intelligent life might be a common outcome of planetary evolution rather than an extraordinary event, potentially revolutionizing our approach to the search for extraterrestrial intelligence34. As a result, scientists may need to recalibrate their expectations and search strategies, focusing on planets with similar evolutionary trajectories to Earth rather than looking for exact replicas of our world56.