According to the National Hurricane Center, a broad area of low pressure several hundred miles south of Mexico's Pacific Coast has a high chance of developing into Tropical Storm Alvin this week, potentially becoming the first named tropical system of the 2025 hurricane season in the Northern Hemisphere.
As of May 27, 2025, meteorologists are observing gradual organization of showers and thunderstorms associated with the low-pressure system, with the National Hurricane Center giving it a 90% chance of development within 48 hours.12 The disturbance is expected to strengthen into a tropical depression by midweek and would be named Alvin if sustained winds reach 39 mph.34
Weather forecasters anticipate this tropical system forming between May 27 and May 30, significantly ahead of the historical average date of June 10 for the first named storm in the Eastern Pacific basin.56 This development comes approximately two weeks after the official start of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season on May 15, and stands in stark contrast to the 2024 season when the first storm (Aletta) didn't form until July 4—the latest start to an Eastern Pacific hurricane season in the satellite era.72
Currently positioned several hundred miles south of the southern Mexico coastline, the developing system is moving west-northwestward at approximately 10 mph.12 Forecast models indicate the disturbance will maintain this slow northwestward trajectory in the coming days.1 The National Hurricane Center designated the area as Invest 90-E on Monday, May 26, 2025, signaling increased monitoring by forecasters.34
While the system is expected to develop into a well-structured storm, it may briefly approach the Baja California Peninsula before likely encountering cooler waters and significant wind shear that typically disrupt tropical systems.5 This projected path keeps the storm primarily over open ocean waters, though coastal effects could still be felt along portions of Mexico's Pacific shoreline.
Despite remaining primarily over open waters, the developing system could bring noticeable effects to Mexico's Pacific coastline. High surf, dangerous rip currents, and scattered showers with locally heavy rainfall are expected along portions of Mexico's western shores.12 While no major land impacts are anticipated, coastal communities should remain alert for changing conditions as the system develops.
The storm is not expected to pose any threat to Florida or the U.S. mainland, as it will remain confined to the Eastern Pacific basin.2 This system represents the first tropical activity of 2025 in either the Eastern Pacific or Atlantic basins, with the Atlantic hurricane season not officially beginning until June 1.
The 2025 Eastern Pacific hurricane season officially began on May 15, two weeks earlier than the Atlantic hurricane season which starts June 1.12 According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's seasonal forecast released on May 22, a below-average hurricane season is predicted for the Eastern Pacific, which typically experiences about 15 named storms annually.3 However, AccuWeather meteorologists project slightly different numbers, forecasting 14 to 18 tropical storms and seven to 10 hurricanes for the region in 2025, compared to historical averages of 15 tropical storms and four hurricanes. The Eastern Pacific hurricane season will continue through November 30, providing a six-and-a-half-month window for potential tropical cyclone development.
