President Trump has repeatedly suggested that Canada should become the "51st state" of the United States, a rhetoric that has sparked diplomatic tensions between the two nations. The concept reportedly originated during a conversation with former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, when Trump suggested Canada should become a state if it couldn't survive economically under U.S. tariffs, according to U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio.12 Trump has continued this narrative, stating that "as a state, it works great," and describing Canada's border with the U.S. as merely an "artificial line."34

While Trump briefly toned down this rhetoric after speaking with Prime Minister Mark Carney in late March 2025, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt later clarified that the president's position hadn't changed, stating that "the president still maintains his position on Canada: the United States has been subsidizing Canada's national defence, and he believes that Canadians would benefit greatly from becoming the 51st state."5 Trump has framed the proposition as beneficial for Canadians, promising "much lower taxes, and far better military protection for the people of Canada - AND NO TARIFFS!"67 The statements have become a central issue in Canada's federal election, with Canadian politicians like Liberal MP Charlie Angus describing Trump's rhetoric as an "act of war."18

Mark Carney, who became Canada's prime minister on March 14, 2025, following Justin Trudeau's resignation, has transformed what appeared to be a doomed Liberal campaign into a potential majority government victory. Initially trailing the Conservatives by 27 percentage points in January polls, Carney's Liberals now lead by 3-6 points heading into the April 28 election.12 This dramatic reversal is largely attributed to Trump's aggressive rhetoric and trade policies, which have sparked a surge in Canadian nationalism.1

Carney's campaign platform focuses on defending Canadian sovereignty and economic interests against Trump's threats. He's pledged C$30.9 billion toward defense spending over four years to reach NATO's 2% GDP target by 2030, with significant investment in Canada's North to counter foreign influence in the Arctic.3 His economic strategy includes dismantling interprovincial trade barriers, supporting sectors affected by U.S. tariffs, establishing new trading partnerships with Europe and Asia, and implementing a middle-class tax cut that would benefit two-income families by up to $825 annually.34 Carney has positioned himself as the leader best equipped to negotiate with Trump, telling Quebec voters, "The question is who's going to be negotiating with President Trump... it's going to be François-Philippe Champagne and myself and our team."5

Trump's administration has ignited significant trade tensions with Canada by imposing a series of tariffs, beginning with a 25% tariff on most Canadian imports in early 2025, with energy products facing a 10% tariff.12 The escalation continued with additional 25% tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum, prompting Canada to retaliate with its own 25% tariffs on approximately CA$30 billion (US$22 billion) worth of American goods.32 Prime Minister Mark Carney has responded forcefully, declaring that "the old relationship we had with the United States based on deepening integration of our economies and tight security and military cooperation is over."45

The trade dispute has had far-reaching implications beyond economics:

• Canada carefully targeted its retaliatory tariffs at politically sensitive U.S. states to maximize pressure on American lawmakers.6

• Ontario briefly imposed a 25% surcharge on electricity exports to Michigan, Minnesota, and New York before suspending it to reduce tensions.2

• The conflict has dramatically shifted Canadian public opinion, with one poll showing that one in four Canadians now view the U.S. as an enemy, while overall favorability toward the U.S. has dropped to 39% from a peak of 81% in 1995.7

• The trade war has significantly impacted Canadian politics, with the Conservative Party losing a 25-percentage-point lead in polls after Trump's annexation threats, potentially altering the outcome of Canada's parliamentary elections.8