The impact of Trump's tariffs on U.S. manufacturing jobs has been largely negative, contrary to the administration's claims. According to a Federal Reserve Board study, the tariffs caused a 1.4% reduction in manufacturing employment, with modest gains from shielding domestic producers outweighed by rising production costs and retaliatory tariffs1. Key findings include:

• Net loss of manufacturing jobs: There were 12.4 million manufacturing jobs when Trump took office in January 2017, dropping to 12.2 million when he left in January 20211.

• Economy-wide job losses: Oxford Economics estimated that the tariffs and resulting trade war cost 245,000 jobs across all sectors1.

• Reduced household income: The tariffs led to an average reduction in real incomes of $675 per household1.

These impacts highlight the complex consequences of trade policies on domestic manufacturing and employment, challenging the notion that tariffs alone can revitalize the U.S. manufacturing sector.

The Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) Index, developed by Baker, Bloom, and Davis, has reached record highs in response to Trump's erratic tariff policies12. This index measures uncertainty by tracking the frequency of news articles containing terms related to economic policy uncertainty. The current elevated levels reflect the unpredictable nature of Trump's trade actions, including sudden announcements and reversals of tariff decisions3.

Key aspects of the EPU Index and its implications:

• It considers keywords in three categories: economy, policy, and uncertainty2

• The index has spiked due to events like the Asian Financial Crisis, 9/11, and the 2008 Global Financial Crisis4

• High EPU levels correlate with reduced business investment and economic growth56

• A scenario analysis suggests that if EPU reverted to pre-pandemic levels, euro area GDP could be 1.2% higher6

• The current EPU surge highlights the economic costs of policy volatility, potentially undermining the effectiveness of Trump's economic agenda3

In response to Trump's tariffs, major U.S. trading partners have implemented retaliatory measures, significantly disrupting global trade flows. China has imposed tariffs on U.S. goods, including agricultural products and energy resources, while also enacting export controls on critical minerals and adding U.S. companies to trade restriction lists1. Canada has targeted U.S. imports across various sectors, including agriculture, appliances, and footwear2. These retaliatory actions have led to shifts in global supply chains and trade patterns, with countries like Brazil benefiting from increased soybean exports to China at the expense of U.S. farmers2.

• The EU and other nations have also announced or threatened retaliatory tariffs against U.S. products2.

• China's measures include antitrust investigations and restrictions on U.S. companies, potentially harming their global competitiveness2.

• The escalating trade tensions have increased the likelihood of a global recession, with J.P. Morgan raising its forecast for a global economic downturn by year-end from 40% to 60%3.