Mass deportation policies would deliver a severe blow to the U.S. economy, with estimates showing GDP reductions of 4.2-6.8% (equivalent to $1.1-1.7 trillion)1 or 2.6% (nearly $5 trillion over 10 years)2. This economic contraction would rival the 4.3% GDP decline experienced during the Great Recession1. The impacts would cascade through multiple sectors:

• Key industries would face critical labor shortages, with construction (losing nearly 14% of its workforce), agriculture, and hospitality particularly vulnerable1

• Contrary to common belief, deportations would actually reduce employment for U.S. citizens, with research showing that removing 500,000 undocumented workers results in approximately 44,000 fewer jobs for U.S.-born workers32

• Federal government would lose nearly $900 billion in revenue over 10 years4, including $46.8 billion in federal taxes, $29.3 billion in state/local taxes, and $22.6 billion in Social Security contributions annually12

• Consumer spending would drop by $256.8 billion annually as purchasing power vanishes from the economy1

• The "self-deportation" strategy being promoted through initiatives like the CBP Home app5 would still trigger these economic consequences while avoiding the estimated $315 billion direct cost of mass deportation operations6

Trump's tariff and immigration policies create contradictory effects on American wages. While immigration restrictions could theoretically increase wages by reducing labor supply, the Penn Wharton Budget Model projects that tariffs would decrease wages by over 6% by 2054, significantly undermining any potential wage growth.1 This economic double-bind particularly impacts middle and lower-income workers, as tariffs function as a regressive tax that disproportionately affects households spending larger portions of their income on consumer goods.2

• Industries dependent on immigrant labor face acute challenges, with labor shortages potentially driving up production costs and consumer prices, especially in food and service sectors3

• The combination of reduced labor force participation and economic contraction from tariffs creates downward pressure on wages despite initial wage increases in certain sectors45

• High-skilled visa reforms, including dramatic increases to H-1B prevailing wage requirements, further complicate the labor market by shifting visa allocations toward higher-wage positions while creating barriers for entry-level international talent6

The economic impact of Trump's tariffs extends well beyond revenue generation, with significant negative effects on GDP. Multiple economic analyses project substantial reductions in economic output, with estimates varying in severity. The Penn Wharton Budget Model projects these tariffs could reduce long-run GDP by approximately 6%1, while other analyses from Yale's Budget Lab estimate a 0.6% persistent decrease in the US economy's size2. The Tax Foundation predicts a 0.8% GDP reduction before accounting for foreign retaliation, which would further decrease GDP to 1.0%3.

These GDP reductions stem from several economic mechanisms. Tariffs raise prices on imported goods and materials, increasing costs for both consumers and businesses that rely on these inputs3. The resulting higher prices reduce the return to labor and capital, discouraging Americans from working and investing3. Additionally, tariffs affect international capital flows, making it harder for the US to manage its growing federal debt4. Over time, these effects compound, with projections suggesting GDP could decrease by as much as 7.5% by 20544, representing a significant and lasting reduction in American living standards.