what fraction of new code is written by AI?

Based on the available search results, there is no definitive consensus on the exact fraction of new code written by AI. However, we can draw some insights from the information provided:
  1. A Microsoft executive stated that among GitHub Copilot users, 40% of the code they check in was "AI-generated and unmodified". It's important to note that this statistic is specific to Copilot users and not representative of all code on GitHub.
  2. A GitHub developer survey found that 92% of US-based developers are already using AI coding tools both in and outside of work. This indicates widespread adoption of AI tools in programming, but doesn't specify the exact fraction of code written by AI.
  3. Some experts have made predictions about the future of AI-generated code. One belief is that 80-90% of regular application code will be generated by AI, with 10-20% written by humans for complex tasks. However, this is a prediction and not a current statistic.
  4. A study by GitClear analyzing 153 million lines of code from 2020 to 2023 found an increase in code churn, duplication, and shorter refactor times, which they correlate with the rise of AI programming assistants. This suggests an increasing influence of AI on code generation, but doesn't provide a specific percentage.
  5. It's worth noting that some sources dispute high claims of AI-generated code. One comment states that very little code is actually written by AI, with most code still being written by people.
In conclusion, while AI is increasingly being used in code generation, the exact fraction of new code written by AI is not definitively known and likely varies depending on the specific context, tools used, and type of programming tasks involved. The impact of AI on coding practices is still evolving, and more comprehensive studies may be needed to accurately quantify its contribution to new code generation.
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